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Am i seeing this right that pinny closed at bears +9 -121? I saw that i smashed the closer at 5d @ 7.5, then i saw that. Oh well bears looking good and eagles tt undr 27.5 has promise also! Good luck on ur under!Comment -
Was about to be 10-3 at half until Forte's fumble which was returned for a TD. Let's hope they rule it incomplete! Shit I need this one...Comment -
I can't believe how the last two minutes of half are playing out....two fumbles, a roughing the passer penalty and the score goes from 10-3 to 17-10. Unfuking real. I really hate this shit right now.Comment -
This is f%ckin rediculousComment -
Ugh...this game is gross for under backers. Forte rarely fumbles and now he fumbles twice in the same game for 14 points, one of which was a direct recovery for a TD. When you combine a punt return fumble by Philly on their own 8 yard line, you can't make this shit up. This fuking sucks as so bad. There should be 27 points right now to end the third quarter instead 41. So frustrating.Comment -
I took CHI +8 and teased CHI with the over 41. I figured there would be around 44 scored, but not to start the 4th. It's not over for you so have hope for PHI to play some D.
...sorry I tried to be optimistic.Last edited by ManBearPig; 11-07-11, 11:20 PM.Comment -
Oh well, let's move on to the next one.Comment -
Go for it!
Nothing you can do when a guy who never fumbles, does so twice costing us 14 points and a punt returner who rarely fumbles also costs us another 7. It's tough to cap 21 points off turnovers. You combine this with yesterday's Steeler disaster with 8 seconds left and all the missed scoring opportunities by the Cowboys and this week could have been very, very different. The breaks have to even out. Really brutal fuking week though.
Good luck next week.
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not even close at any point in this under
sorry LTA
Turnovers killed it early 2nd quarter.Comment -
For accuracy sakes, I would disagree. It was 7-0 nothing after the first quarter and 10-3 until two minutes left in the second quarter. With two minutes left, Forte fumbled and Philly returned it for a TD and then the Bears punted on the ensuing possession and the Eagles fumbled the punt return on their five yard line which made it 17-10 at half. It's not exactly common that 14 points get scored in the span of 2 minutes.
In addition there was another score off a turnover in the 2h and the play only lost by 6 points. No one can cap 21 points off turnovers. You generally add a certain amount of points based on turnover differential when capping turnovers in your projected line, but 21 points on various fumbles is not a common occurrence.
With that said, however, all that matters is the loss. Variance is now clearly on our side moving forward. That is actually encouraging when you think about it. Just a brutal NFL week though.Comment -
Pinny will often artificially hold a line at -9 and then juice it as needed to protect themselves from players hitting 6 point teasers to cross both the 7 & the 3 (Wong Teasers). So the market might be sitting at -7.5/-8 at regular juice and and you'll see Pinny at -9 (+115). The small value of that 7.5-9 window makes the price comparable.Comment -
Brutal Week looking forward to TNF.Comment -
NFL 2011-2012 Week 9 Recap
2 - 7 = -8.8x
NFL 2011-2012 Season
48 - 49 = -7.2x
Just the week from hell. I played very aggressively based on some perceived edges and suffered dearly because of some rough breaks. All that evens out. We went from comfortably in the black to uncomfortably in the red in the matter of two bad weeks, so now it's time to get to work and get back to the black. Good luck.Comment -
NFL 2011-2012 Week 10
Play #1
Bills/Cowboys over (48) 2x (Locked)
I've been watching this one all day and just don't see it going down to 47, so I'm going to lock it in now. First, the Buffalo defense is really struggling right now, especially against the pass. They are suffering from a few injuries that are affecting both their secondary and pass rush. On the other despite, despite some horrible offensive efficiency in the red zone, the Cowboys offense is moving the ball at will right now with the addition of Demarco Murray at rb. That running game with Murray really opens up the play action and keeps the linebackers away from defending that deep in to Dez Bryant across the middle. Miles Austin will be out a couple weeks, but I don't see this affecting Dallas' ability to move the ball against this Buffalo defense. The Bills offense had been playing unbelievably efficient until facing that Jets buzzsaw at home last week. I expect a turnaround performance from Ryan Fitzgerald and Co. on the road, playing against another Ryan family coached defense. Buffalo is a top 5 defense in Off EPA and WPA as well as Passing EPA and WPA in addition to top 5 DVOA efficiency. Buffalo will be playing on a fast track in warm temps which will be conducive to their passing attack. I expect a rebound from Buffalo's skill position players, especially Johnson and Jackson. I have this game set at 51 and we are covering the key number of 48, while getting three points of value. I would have liked to get 47 for coverage on that key number, but I just see this number going up throughout the week and I am rolling with the over for 2x now and I might add a bit later as well. Good luck.Comment -
Did you mean ryan fitzpatrick ???Comment -
I hear ya....I go through an agent right now so the $$ is golden. And I live in Vegas so there's more books w/i a stones throw from me than I can handle. But, I hate laying -110 when I can lay -105 so I seldom use Vegas books. Plus it so much easier sitting in your britches clicking the keyboard rather than battling those idiots behind the counter ya know....Comment -
Love play 1 lta
Like the over tomorrow? I think it's worthy of a lookComment -
Dont mean to be rude but i dont understand why is there 39,000 views on a guy with a record of 48-49 ?Comment -
trust me - 90% of the board is no better then he is currently, buy they dont have the balls to fully document their plays (some people are worried about a cyberspace rep).
LTA does informative writeups, and has had other winning seasons clearly documented - plus he welcomes open dialogue with his plays so you can see people commenting, sharing ideas etc about a lot of games.
come back to this thread when the superbowl is over....my LOCK of the year is that he'll be cash+
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I wasn't going to touch this, but f'n a man, why don't you do in-depth write-ups of 10 to 15 picks per week, PER SPORT, you could go 0-100 and I'd still read them. Posting picks with NOTHING means shit, you could be copying and pasting from another site for all I know.
Sheeeeeesh.
If you'd go through the whole thread, you'd see him mention he's best at MLB (+38) and NBA (+61 and +91 in the playoffs) and plays NCAAF and NFL for the love of the game.
If you don't like it, don't read it.Comment -
I don't really know what views means or has to do with anything. However, I am an investor interested in long term profit. What happens over one half of the season is really unimportant. I had been hitting 55% and plus units for the majority of the season, but had a brutal week last week. Still, none of that matters. The only thing that matters is my final unit count at the end of the season and really over even a longer sample than that.
Good luck.
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As will youtrust me - 90% of the board is no better then he is currently, buy they dont have the balls to fully document their plays (some people are worried about a cyberspace rep).
LTA does informative writeups, and has had other winning seasons clearly documented - plus he welcomes open dialogue with his plays so you can see people commenting, sharing ideas etc about a lot of games.
come back to this thread when the superbowl is over....my LOCK of the year is that he'll be cash+
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I'm looking at a side play rather than the total. I think the total is pretty sharp in that 47-49 range, but I do probably have a slight over lean. I am really close to playing a side though will post it as soon as I think we're going to get the best number. Good luck PnP
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Did you watch the Broncos-Raiders game? I was on the Broncos, but really liked what I was seeing from Carson Palmer. He threw three picks, but that seems fairly incidental compared to how much more comfortable he was looking than in the previous game. His arm strength looked good, and he hit 6 different receivers for 20+ yard plays. I suspect the Raiders are going to show up tomorrow.I'm looking at a side play rather than the total. I think the total is pretty sharp in that 47-49 range, but I do probably have a slight over lean. I am really close to playing a side though will post it as soon as I think we're going to get the best number. Good luck PnPComment
