LTA's NFL PLays

[badhunter]

Good luck everyone today. You are in good hands with LTA. Not sure why these freakin trolls waste their time and ours. If you do not believe in what LTA does, start your own thread and get your own followers. Stay out of here. You add as much value as someone going after people on facebook. You are the scum of the earth. And if you do go deep on just 2-3 games, post them in your own thread and just maybe you will get a follower that cares. I am off to the Bills game. F-ck badhunter. If he really does make that kind if money, he can afford an escort on a Saturday night after being walked out on by his family.

I posted four games since Friday - USC (winner), Oregon State (loser), LSU Money Line (winner), Ducks (winner). 3-1 (including a dog ML). Now let's see your last four picks pussy.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey guys, good morning. LTA, Buck, triv, scot, and the gang, best of luck today. My model spit these out so i thought id post:
Indy +7.5
Tenessee -2.5
Browns +10.5
Balty +3.5
Skins +4
Miami +4
Sd +5.5

[upscope]

I posted four games since Friday - USC (winner), Oregon State (loser), LSU Money Line (winner), Ducks (winner). 3-1 (including a dog ML). Now let's see your last four picks pussy.

Why don't you post them in your own tread then since you're so good......instead of polluting this one w/ your negativity?? Obviously, you're only looking for attention w/ your blatant disrespect. If that's the case start your own tread, go 3-1 every week while being as disrespectful as possible. I assure you you'll get all the attention you can handle.

Whichever route you take GL

[badhunter]

Not posting here - just defending myself for LTA's blatant disrespect for me. I could have blasted his Washington pick (I had the Ducks) when he said "the Ducks give up big plays" which is totally erroneous. The Ducks rarely give up big plays. Whatever, follow who you want. I threw out a few picks to help whoever needed help. That's it. GL to you, Upscope.

[upscope]

Not posting here - just defending myself for LTA's blatant disrespect for me. I could have blasted his Washington pick (I had the Ducks) when he said "the Ducks give up big plays" which is totally erroneous. The Ducks rarely give up big plays. Whatever, follow who you want. I threw out a few picks to help whoever needed help. That's it. GL to you, Upscope.

NP....I disagree w/ LTA's picks all the time. Some win, some lose. In the end whether you agree w/ his analysis or not it's still UP to you who to play. Maybe it was "erroneous information" or maybe it was a "difference of opinions" but in the end LTA is generally spot on w/ his work. If you give it some time I'm sure you'd agree??

In the end it doesn't matter if you've been doing this for 1.5 yrs or 8 yrs. If you can spit out winners you're OK in my book

[badhunter]

Agree with you 100 percent. Good luck today - looks like we've got a favorable board to get a couple of winners. I will post my humble NFL picks in a few (warning - I took a bath last week on NFL).

[EricZ116]

What do you think of Broncos/Raiders under 42.5 (got it last night, idk what it is now)? Without McFadden, I see a lot of field goals for the Raiders.

[Love The Action]

Good Luck LTA. BTW what is your record so far this year?

Same to you LB...just look like ten posts above yours. I update my record at the end of each week.

[Love The Action]

Yo - big talker LTA...you wanted a pick with some muscle - I gave out USC last night. In fact, I predicted the final score 38-14 (it was 42-17), said Barkley-to-Woods was worth 2 TDs (he caught two TDs), etc. Nailed every aspect of the game, including the so-called letdown after Stanford, refuted the altitude, on and on. Check out the USC-Colorado thread you might actually have learned something. I'm not here to brag about one game, but am here to warn every one about following your bullshit and betting on 10 games a day. You've been doing this for 1.5 years jackass? I've been doing this for 8 years. And I've lost a shitload of money (more than you have made in that period), and trying to warn others to go narrow and deep. Pick 2-3 games a week and hammer them. Not follow some pussy like you.

Solid job on posting your winners. I hope you did so before the games were over.

I also hope you conduct yourself with more class in real life than you do over the internet.

Oh, and btw, have you read Conquering Risk, Sharp Sports Betting or any of the other generally recognized top works in our field? If so, the topic of making as many +ev wagers as possible is discussed at length. Good luck to you in the future.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, many thanks for your hard work again and good luck
Do you like the Steelers - 3 ?

[Love The Action]

I posted four games since Friday - USC (winner), Oregon State (loser), LSU Money Line (winner), Ducks (winner). 3-1 (including a dog ML). Now let's see your last four picks pussy.

Unless you are going to contribute in a positive manner to this thread, you need not stop by. However, if you have something constructive to add, by all means do so. That includes posting your plays (before the games start) with analysis. I look forward to seeing all of your winners. Please don't act like such a classless person though. It really takes away from all credibility you so obviously seek. Good luck

[Love The Action]

Hey guys, good morning. LTA, Buck, triv, scot, and the gang, best of luck today. My model spit these out so i thought id post:
Indy +7.5
Tenessee -2.5
Browns +10.5
Balty +3.5
Skins +4
Miami +4
Sd +5.5

Good luck. I also like Miami

[Love The Action]

Not posting here - just defending myself for LTA's blatant disrespect for me. I could have blasted his Washington pick (I had the Ducks) when he said "the Ducks give up big plays" which is totally erroneous. The Ducks rarely give up big plays. Whatever, follow who you want. I threw out a few picks to help whoever needed help. That's it. GL to you, Upscope.

I was actually on the Oregon/Washington over, not Washington. Plus, I said that Oregon is "susceptible to the big play." So please be accurate when you quote me. Finally, I bought that play at 73.5 and it closed at 76. Consequently, that was actually one of better plays of the week despite it losing. Anytime a line moves in your favor 2.5 points, that is a hugely profitable play over time. You do understand the concept of getting the best price, beating the efficiency of the closing number, etc., right?

Also, please show me where I disrespected you. I have never said anything negative to you and I went through our previous conversation to make sure of that. I am sure you will remember that your original post in this thread -- our very first communication -- was a negative comment towards me for my belief that you should make as many +ev plays as possible. I believe that is the best way to churn over your BR and create a high ROI. My response to your original negative comment merely explained why I believe in making as many +ev plays as possible. I never made any disrespectful comments toward you, despite your continued disrespect of me, and I will be happy to re-post our conversation to jog your memory.

We all get it. It's pretty obvious of your intentions in here. You are not fooling anyone.

Again, I say, if you want to contribute positively to this thread by posting plays and analysis please do so. I highly encourage discourse about different plays, especially if they oppose me. I am always looking to learn or see if I missed something in my capping and modeling. If you have something to add, please do so. However, if you are going to continue to post without exhibiting any class, I will simply ignore you.

I do not engage trolls, so stop acting childishly and let's grow up and discuss sports investing. Hopefully, everyone call learn and we can all make some money. GL

[Donnie Brasco]

U got any other sides or just on tenn and j-e-t-s?

[Love The Action]

Agree with you 100 percent. Good luck today - looks like we've got a favorable board to get a couple of winners. I will post my humble NFL picks in a few (warning - I took a bath last week on NFL).

Great post

Looking forward to your plays.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)

Here's what we have so far. No time for writeups guys, sorry. I will have a few more plays coming up. Good luck today guys

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, many thanks for your hard work again and good luck
Do you like the Steelers - 3 ?

Still working on that one

[Love The Action]

U got any other sides or just on tenn and j-e-t-s?

Working on it Donnie...good luck today!

[Moneyliner7]

For badhunter.. Im all over and rarely post, but i do check out lta.. Hes not always right but he has great insight and he is positive overall and is a good guy as the rest of these posters are in his thread.. Good luck guys.. 49ers -4 and bills over

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Lets get it done!!

[mt675826]

Damn LTA, switched over to follow this thread a bit since MLB finished. Been on way more NHL than NFL but always check in on the weekend to see what's up, make a couple small NFL parlays. Can't believe the BS on here! The MLB discussions were so much more positive and polite! Don't let Debbie Downer get to you, you have a lot of people who appreciate what you do - win or lose - because you can't win em all and it's always an ongoing, learning process. I learned tons through the latter half of MLB with you and the regular guys you discussed with and had a lot of fun while doing it. Keep it up, your effort and class are much appreciated and second to none as far as I (and most sensible others) are concerned.

Anybody that starts a post in a forum with "not posting here" is not the sharpest knife in the drawer!

[kp126]

Good pick LTA. I personally see this as a 23-10 type of game.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Seahawks/Cowboys over (44.5) 1x (Locked)

I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[badhunter]

LTA - you called me a troll and talked major shit (see post last week). I don't have time to f-around with "he-said, she-said." If you do your research, you see that I picked LSU ML BEFORE THE GAME (see thread), as well as USC and Oregon (all posts before well before kickoffs, on SBR, thank you). The only game I lost was Oregon State, and for most of the game, I thought that was going to hit. I also hit Houston -28-1/2 but didn't post so why talk about it?

Here's my plays for today (2 more than normal, but what the hell)
49ers -4-1/2
Raiders - 7 (bought a half point)
Tampa Bay +9
Bengals over 41.

[luckythansmart]

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

This year it doesn't seem that way. Of the 4 teams from the west coast coming to the east coast the o/u is 6-1-1
SF = 1-0-1 (the tie depends if you didn't get the hook otherwise its a under)
Oak = 1-0
SD = 2-0
Sea = 1-1
It all depends on what one consider west coast and east coast also.

Good luck on your play

[Love The Action]

LTA - you called me a troll and talked major shit (see post last week). I don't have time to f-around with "he-said, she-said." If you do your research, you see that I picked LSU ML BEFORE THE GAME (see thread), as well as USC and Oregon (all posts before well before kickoffs, on SBR, thank you). The only game I lost was Oregon State, and for most of the game, I thought that was going to hit. I also hit Houston -28-1/2 but didn't post so why talk about it?

Here's my plays for today (2 more than normal, but what the hell)
49ers -4-1/2
Raiders - 7 (bought a half point)
Tampa Bay +9
Bengals over 41.

I will re-post all of my responses to you and I will let you show me where I "talked major shit." As everyone here knows, I do not engage in such discourse -- I am not cocky and I am very humble. You are just wrong. I will also re-post your original post in this thread which highlights how this all began and all of my responses. You sought me out by posting a disrespectful comment in my thread, not the other way around and you continue to seek attention by posting in here.

I did call you a troll because you were calling another poster a "pussy" and acting very disrespectful, not only to me but other posters here in this thread. That is the exact definition of a troll, so if you act like that, then that is what you will be referred to as. If you act respectfully to me and others, then you will be treated likewise. If you act with dignity and respect, then that is what you get in return. It's your choice.

Everyone here knows I give everyone the respect they deserve.

Congrats on your profitable day yesterday and I hope you profit again today.

[upscope]

LTA - you called me a troll and talked major shit (see post last week). I don't have time to f-around with "he-said, she-said." If you do your research, you see that I picked LSU ML BEFORE THE GAME (see thread), as well as USC and Oregon (all posts before well before kickoffs, on SBR, thank you). The only game I lost was Oregon State, and for most of the game, I thought that was going to hit. I also hit Houston -28-1/2 but didn't post so why talk about it?

Here's my plays for today (2 more than normal, but what the hell)
49ers -4-1/2
Raiders - 7 (bought a half point)
Tampa Bay +9
Bengals over 41.

I like that TB pick too bro....I want to play it but my book is -105 on football & they have that game juiced to -115......I HATE laying -115 & am not gonna do it.....But I do like the play.

[Love The Action]

This year it doesn't seem that way. Of the 4 teams from the west coast coming to the east coast the o/u is 6-1-1
SF = 1-0-1 (the tie depends if you didn't get the hook otherwise its a under)
Oak = 1-0
SD = 2-0
Sea = 1-1
It all depends on what one consider west coast and east coast also.

Good luck on your play

Agreed, but the important term is "this year." You are referring to 8 game sample. I am referring to a 10 year sample which shows west coast teams in early east games can come out sluggish. Maybe the tide is turning, but there needs to be a much larger sample to show otherwise. Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

Ugh...one of my local's website is down and I can't get access to the lines. I am thinking about adding to the Jets over and Cowboys over...and a few other plays. Very frustrating. I won't make a play unless I get the best number available to me and my other book is shading both of those higher by a 1/2 point.

[GChild]

I got 3 books and it's great because it could be a 1-1.5 difference between the 3.

[Love The Action]

I like that TB pick too bro....I want to play it but my book is -105 on football & they have that game juiced to -115......I HATE laying -115 & am not gonna do it.....But I do like the play.

That's good discipline Up

You know how important price is and how buying points consistently requires that you win at a higher winning percentage to be profitable.

I have no play on that game as I think that Vegas' numbers on the side and total are pretty accurate. However, I like the situational spot of the Saints off a bad performance and playing with revenge. However, TB is also in a solid situational spot so I expect a good game. I don't see the edge in the current number on either side though. Good luck if you do decide to play it.

[Love The Action]

I got 3 books and it's great because it could be a 1-1.5 difference between the 3.

Good job G...it's so important to have access to multiple books in order to shop lines. I am looking for another local outlook right now so I can have three as well. It's only going to make you more profitable over time and that's what is most important -- long term!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Seahawks/Cowboys over 1.5x (over (44.5) 1x and over (45) 0.50x (Locked))

I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Adding 0.50x to Play #8 for total of 1.5x on Seahawks/Cowboys over. Correct units denoted above.

[GChild]

Let's get them today