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Here's where we are at heading into the late afternoon games. Well, we went 2-2 on our first four plays today, but the two losses hurt more because those were bigger plays. We have a chance for a nice profitable day heading into the Sunday night game if we can sweep these late afternoon games. Good luck guys.
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all of a sudden giants d and new englands d is great wow i hate they way this is looking for over 51 come on man we need a touch down please!!!!!Comment -
God I hate green bayComment -
Rivers pick 6...come on dude
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Fudge packers game may be over at halfComment -
Man, this is shaping up as a rough afternoon. Two pick 6 touchdowns in the GB game and no points in the Patriots game. I will say, the Pats over was a bad play at 52. That one ended up getting as low as 50.5 before closing at 51.5 at Pinny. I lost to the closer by a 1/2 point and could have had 50.5, so that wasn't a long term profitable play.
However, that Packers under was a great play that is highly profitable over time whether we win today or not. I got that at 53 and it closed at 50.5 and 50 in a lot of other places despite 80% on the over. We had RLM all week on this play and all line movement favored the under. Big and sharp money was on the under with us, so we won't be the only ones taking a hit if this doesn't cash. Nevertheless, we ended up with 2.5 points of value against the closing number which is gold over time. So I don't regret the play, I regret the two Rivers pick 6's though. We're going to need a miracle on this one.Comment -
Packers under - DONE
Giants over - DONE
Bloody Sunday. Onto Ravens vs. Steelers...Comment -
Tennesee looking good though for now up by ten at the half
It might end up a 3-4 day, but 3 of the four losses will have been for multiple units. I'm still holding out hope. I've seen it all and I've certainly suffered some bad beats, so who knows what will happen with a whole 2h to play. Maybe we'll get repaid for those bad beats. I'll hold out hope for a miracle
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I don't even know what to say about either one of these totals.
I am baffled by the scores in these two games. Completely and utterly baffled.Comment -
Hey LTA, any thoughts on MNF? Have Bears in a 6 point teaser at +14. At this point I'm thinking I didn't have to tease but anyway, I'd like to make another play!
OH! Just saw your under, nevermind! Any thoughts on the spread?Comment -
****, not happy about the beat bro, but Sanchez got the win.....I had confidence he would. He ain't pretty but he gets the job done. I like the kids stones. To be fair I was out all day and didn't see the game,......can't offer any intelligent critique but the final score was not a surprise, I have made a fortune on the Jets the last 3 weeks....and I don't bet with my heart.
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Sanchez killed it in the second half.
****, not happy about the beat bro, but Sanchez got the win.....I had confidence he would. He ain't pretty but he gets the job done. I like the kids stones. To be fair I was out all day and didn't see the game,......can't offer any intelligent critique but the final score was not a surprise, I have made a fortune on the Jets the last 3 weeks....and I don't bet with my heart.
Burress and Holmes are really starting to play well. I think the value on the Jets will be gone now going into next week, but with them facing the Pats they will still get a good number.
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Agreed on the value. Matter of fact I will almost be looking the other side automatically next week. Burress rounding into shape and finally getting some rhythm with Sanchez is HUGE. The first few weeks Sanchez was without his rangy receiver (edwards last year), his center(Mangold) for a couple of games and had Plaxico running routes like a chicken without his head.
Holmes (slot/deep threat), Keller (mismatch potential) and now Plaxico (Rangy) rounds out a nice balanced receiving corps.Comment -
Sundays are burrying me! Im taking all public chalk next week
Man, this is shaping up as a rough afternoon. Two pick 6 touchdowns in the GB game and no points in the Patriots game. I will say, the Pats over was a bad play at 52. That one ended up getting as low as 50.5 before closing at 51.5 at Pinny. I lost to the closer by a 1/2 point and could have had 50.5, so that wasn't a long term profitable play.
However, that Packers under was a great play that is highly profitable over time whether we win today or not. I got that at 53 and it closed at 50.5 and 50 in a lot of other places despite 80% on the over. We had RLM all week on this play and all line movement favored the under. Big and sharp money was on the under with us, so we won't be the only ones taking a hit if this doesn't cash. Nevertheless, we ended up with 2.5 points of value against the closing number which is gold over time. So I don't regret the play, I regret the two Rivers pick 6's though. We're going to need a miracle on this one.
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Fck the titans also by the way!Comment -
SNF thoughts....I'm liking the under, but I would feel much better at 43Comment -
My model had this one right at 41, didnt see value. I do have a lean on the ravens though. So fade for a sure winner. Got killed today! Fck nfl!Comment -
Pitt has been up at Halftime many times this year, then lost gave most of the lead back in the 2nd half. I half won the 2nd half betting the team they were playing. Remember the first game of the year, Ravens blew them out, I say its revenge, I'm playing the under and Pitt straight. But if they are up big at Halftime Ill play the Ravens 2nd half.Comment -
Play #9Originally Posted by Love The Action
NFL 2011-2012 Week 9
Play #1
Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)
Play #2
Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)LOSS
Play #3
Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x and under (51) 1x for total for 2x (Locked)LOSS
Play #4
Jets (+1) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #5
Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x and over (45) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)LOSS
Play #6
Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)LOSS
Play #7
49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)WINNER
West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #8
Seahawks/Cowboys over (44.5) 1x and over (45) 0.50x for total of 1.5x (Locked)LOSS
I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Baltimore/Pittsburgh under (42) 1x (Locked)
I would have really like to get some coverage on the key number of 43, but it just never materialized other than one minute at the Pinny open. Even so Pinny is currently at 41.5 -105 and MBook is juicing the under at 41.5, so I'm happy with the 42. Pittsburgh has really improved those defensive rankings from earlier in the year and really established themselves last week against NE. They really impressed me defending the pass, which had been their weakness. If you look at Def EPA, Def WPA, EPA/p, Def Rush EPA, Def Pass EPA, Def Rush WPA, Def Pass WPA, Def SR%, Def Pass SR% and Def Pass SR%, both the Steelers and Baltimore are top 10 with Baltimore top 5 pretty much across the board. Both teams have top 3 scoring defenses with solid time of possession numbers. I don't see Baltimore giving up several special teams touchdowns today, like they have frequently this year -- it's time to get that under control. Even though the Steelers have been running a very efficient offense in the last few weeks, they have not faced a defense like this since the first game of the year when Balty limited Pit to 7 points. I don't see Balty scoring 35 of Pit this game with all of their defensive improvements. I have this one set at 39.5, so we're getting 2.5 points of value here. The line has started to move to 41.5 at 5D now as well, so I agree with late money and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
i hear you ...i would feel great at 43 as 20-20 worries me....personally i feel like taking the 3.5 is a no brainer, pit hasnt exactly fixed that run d and Rice will be pounding the rock..Both teams playing with a chip in this one so i expect d's to be flying around all over...nt sure who wins but this got 17-14 /20/17 written all over it...gonna go batly +3.5 2x and under 42 1x..BOL brotherComment -
Tough day, LTA (for me, too). Seems like we all win on Saturdays and give it all back on Sundays. I won the 49ers, pushed the Titans over, lost the Raiders and Bucs:
Sunday: 1-2-1
Saturday: 3-1.
Overall: 4-3-1.Comment -
Balty got robbed on that goaline playComment -
Thanks Red. Great time at the game, but the game was boring. I am okay with the Bills losing but it was mostly boring until the 4th quarter. Congrats on the Jets win, but they were just the better team today, not impressive by any means today.
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I don't know much about football and I'm wagering on NFL using others' plays, so I've been teasing some of your totals, LTA, and have been making some nice coin, thus I need to thank you for your work, plays, insight and attitude
I have to say though you are suffering the sickest beats ever, one after another, it's like a fukking bad beat piledriver, man. Honestly, with just a few games here and there going a bit less crazy, you would have been COMFORTABLY in the black in both college and pro football. The law of averages says you're going to kill it in the second half of the football season ... right? I wish you the best of luck, you really deserve it.Comment -
I don't know much about football and I'm wagering on NFL using others' plays, so I've been teasing some of your totals, LTA, and have been making some nice coin, thus I need to thank you for your work, plays, insight and attitude
I have to say though you are suffering the sickest beats ever, one after another, it's like a fukking bad beat piledriver, man. Honestly, with just a few games here and there going a bit less crazy, you would have been COMFORTABLY in the black in both college and pro football. The law of averages says you're going to kill it in the second half of the football season ... right? I wish you the best of luck, you really deserve it.
I have no doubt that we are in store for a big 2nd half. NCAA was rife with bad beats and close calls for a while and now is starting to take off. Thanks for putting in the work LTA, looking forward to the rest of the season.
Talking about bad beats, my Rams +3 1/2 was looking like a sure thing
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Ya. That 10 min drive for nothing hurt our over and the Bills call on fourth and inches deep in Jets teritory. Fcuk. The bills handed off the ball 5 yards behind scrimage. Stupid! Sneak it. It is not brain surgery. They had a chance to get the over and even the win until that play.Tough losses with the Jets over and Cowboys over.
That fuking Sanchez interception on the opening drive killed us. We would have cashed the 1x over at 43.5 and pushed the 1x at 45 had they punched it on the first drive when they had 1st and goal from Buffalo 5 yard line and Sanchez threw a pick.
In the Cowboys game, they blew 4 or 5 scoring opportunities. They should have easily scored about 28-35 points on their own.
Onto the afternoon games. Let's go 2-0 for a profitable day.Comment -
I have seen games where I say "Jets going to the Superbowl" this year. Yesterday was not one of them. They had what I would consider 2 good drives and argueably the better side of calls to help some other drives. The Bills were crap so the Jets definitely played enough to beat a crappy Buffalo team, albeit not pretty.
****, not happy about the beat bro, but Sanchez got the win.....I had confidence he would. He ain't pretty but he gets the job done. I like the kids stones. To be fair I was out all day and didn't see the game,......can't offer any intelligent critique but the final score was not a surprise, I have made a fortune on the Jets the last 3 weeks....and I don't bet with my heart.
Congrats Red.
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Thanks for the hard work LTA, with your discipled approach you're bound to hit a winning streak soon. Just unbelievable how these games have gone lately. lol I had Steelers -3.5 parlayed with the under.Comment -
Wow...went to bed at halftime last night and it was 9-6 balty.....woke up today and see it ended 23-20. Four td's in the second half to burn my under by 1 point. Just brutal. I dont even want to know what happened because I'm sure it was an even worse beat than the score indicated. What a horrible way to start the workweek. Wish I would have just seen it last night so I could be over it already. Now this is going to piss me off for a couple hours. Fuk...Comment -
Glad you had a good time Triv, too bad the game wasn't more exciting. Shaping up to be an interesting dog fight in the division. I got no beef with the Bills, except when we go head to head, down with the Pats!I have seen games where I say "Jets going to the Superbowl" this year. Yesterday was not one of them. They had what I would consider 2 good drives and argueably the better side of calls to help some other drives. The Bills were crap so the Jets definitely played enough to beat a crappy Buffalo team, albeit not pretty.
Congrats Red.
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