LTA's NFL PLays

[Redscot]

Did you watch the Broncos-Raiders game? I was on the Broncos, but really liked what I was seeing from Carson Palmer. He threw three picks, but that seems fairly incidental compared to how much more comfortable he was looking than in the previous game. His arm strength looked good, and he hit 6 different receivers for 20+ yard plays. I suspect the Raiders are going to show up tomorrow.

Glad to hear that info, as I did not see the game. I like the Chargers here but not at 7. Being that I have been having good success with teasers in this point range this season I am thinking of teasing this one and the under to S.D. pk over 40 1/2. I'll buy the point here to get on the right side of the 41 total. What do you think LTA?

[Love The Action]

Did you watch the Broncos-Raiders game? I was on the Broncos, but really liked what I was seeing from Carson Palmer. He threw three picks, but that seems fairly incidental compared to how much more comfortable he was looking than in the previous game. His arm strength looked good, and he hit 6 different receivers for 20+ yard plays. I suspect the Raiders are going to show up tomorrow.

I did not watch, however, I have my doubts about Palmer.

That was only his second game at NFL game speed after an extended layoff after quitting/retiring from his team. I suspect there to be some serious rust at this point. The biggest thing is game speed. He may have been working out and his arm may be ready to roll, however, it is going to take some time to readjust to the speed of the NFL game. That's not going to be easy.

Plus, he was coming off of the worst seasons of his career. When you add this factor to the long layoff, I am not suspecting a ton of success tonight in what is essentially his second preseason game. He is playing a much better defense in SD as opposed to Denver. In addition, SD is in a must win situation, playing at home with Philip Rivers needing a really solid performance. I also like that Mathews will play thereby boosting the run game for San Diego. I see the situational factors strongly favoring the Chargers.

With that said, and unfortuantely, all of these factors are plainly obvious and 80% of all bets are pounding SD tonight. When combined with a 7 point spread, which is always difficult to cover in the NFL, this game becomes a bit more debatable. If the spread comes off of 7, it will take some serious money. In so doing, it would make Oakland look to be the play. However, I would really like SD in this spot at 6.5. I want to see where the market goes and a tease opportunity as Red mentions above is interesting as well.

I still have some work to do on this one...we'll see.

Good luck SK

[suicidekings]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating a strong play on the Raiders. I just believe that the people that are expecting Palmer to fall on his face tonight will probably be disappointed. The Chargers are a better team than the Broncos, no doubt, but not by as wide a margin as it might have appeared before the season started. These teams are both 4th quarter chokers.

GL with whatever you decide, LTA

[Redscot]

I did not watch, however, I have my doubts about Palmer.

That was only his second game at NFL game speed after an extended layoff after quitting/retiring from his team. I suspect there to be some serious rust at this point. The biggest thing is game speed. He may have been working out and his arm may be ready to roll, however, it is going to take some time to readjust to the speed of the NFL game. That's not going to be easy.

Plus, he was coming off of the worst seasons of his career. When you add this factor to the long layoff, I am not suspecting a ton of success tonight in what is essentially his second preseason game. He is playing a much better defense in SD as opposed to Denver. In addition, SD is in a must win situation, playing at home with Philip Rivers needing a really solid performance. I also like that Mathews will play thereby boosting the run game for San Diego. I see the situational factors strongly favoring the Chargers.

With that said, and unfortuantely, all of these factors are plainly obvious and 80% of all bets are pounding SD tonight. When combined with a 7 point spread, which is always difficult to cover in the NFL, this game becomes a bit more debatable. If the spread comes off of 7, it will take some serious money. In so doing, it would make Oakland look to be the play. However, I would really like SD in this spot at 6.5. I want to see where the market goes and a tease opportunity as Red mentions above is interesting as well.

I still have some work to do on this one...we'll see.

Good luck SK

Continuity between a QB/Receiver is big....there has to be trust, and that comes from repetition (amongst other factors; receivers route running etc.). Palmer has not developed any rapport yet with his wide outs and no McFadden to lean on. As LTA pointed out it is not as if he was coming off a high note before this huge layoff. I think the Chargers are due for a break out honestly. I think they got some bad breaks/calls against the Jets, and for the most part outplayed them. K.C. was another aberration, Rivers has enough track record to say that. Against G.B. Rivers made some knucklehead throws (something you would think has to stop at some point with his history) and S.D. was competitive against the leagues preeminent team atm. I think double digits are in order here, S.D.'s value is at its season high tonight imo. I teased it, but I am leaning heavily on a side play too...waiting to here LTA's opinion here as well as others.

[Love The Action]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating a strong play on the Raiders. I just believe that the people that are expecting Palmer to fall on his face tonight will probably be disappointed. The Chargers are a better team than the Broncos, no doubt, but not by as wide a margin as it might have appeared before the season started. These teams are both 4th quarter chokers.

GL with whatever you decide, LTA

Same to you....I'm starting to think this one might be a better off as a pass. SD playing 3 games in 11 days, divisional game in a fight for first place, both teams are chokers, no real line movement leans as of yet, books going to need Oakland big time, etc. There's just a lot of conflicting factors here.

GL

[Love The Action]

Continuity between a QB/Receiver is big....there has to be trust, and that comes from repetition (amongst other factors; receivers route running etc.). Palmer has not developed any rapport yet with his wide outs and no McFadden to lean on. As LTA pointed out it is not as if he was coming off a high note before this huge layoff. I think the Chargers are due for a break out honestly. I think they got some bad breaks/calls against the Jets, and for the most part outplayed them. K.C. was another aberration, Rivers has enough track record to say that. Against G.B. Rivers made some knucklehead throws (something you would think has to stop at some point with his history) and S.D. was competitive against the leagues preeminent team atm. I think double digits are in order here, S.D.'s value is at its season high tonight imo. I teased it, but I am leaning heavily on a side play too...waiting to here LTA's opinion here as well as others.

The more I look into this game and SD, the less I like it...might pass but not sure yet. Would like to see where the lien goes. What did you tease SD with?

GL

[Redscot]

The more I look into this game and SD, the less I like it...might pass but not sure yet. Would like to see where the lien goes. What did you tease SD with?

GL

The over, bought a point (mainly to bring total under 41)...so it's S.D. pick'em over 40 1/2. I fully understand the qualms, 3 games in 11 games, bad Rivers mojo, underachieving squad...I think S.D. rolls, they have not played that poorly this season and were without key offensive components early. I think they win this one by 10+ .going away...as long as the offensive line can keep their false starts to under 3 in this game . Have to admit, haven't played the S.D. side yet......so something is holding me back...end of the day I think I will be on them though as well as the tease. GL fella's

[Love The Action]

The over, bought a point (mainly to bring total under 41)...so it's S.D. pick'em over 40 1/2. I fully understand the qualms, 3 games in 11 games, bad Rivers mojo, underachieving squad...I think S.D. rolls, they have not played that poorly this season and were without key offensive components early. I think they win this one by 10+ .going away...as long as the offensive line can keep their false starts to under 3 in this game . Have to admit, haven't played the S.D. side yet......so something is holding me back...end of the day I think I will be on them though as well as the tease. GL fella's

GL, I want to see what happens with the line....

[KuLaPhU]

Where can I watch Thursday night football online?

[Redscot]

GL, I want to see what happens with the line....

70% + on S.D. and line won't budge. Gonna stick with my tease even though I feel S.D. should roll tonight.

[Luv2Play2]

TvMov - Watch Live Sports, Events, Channels, and More

[Love The Action]

70% + on S.D. and line won't budge. Gonna stick with my tease even though I feel S.D. should roll tonight.

Just not sure...I don't make a play unless I'm 100% confident. I have SD at -8, so not a lot of value and there was no line move showing an obvious move on SD here. My local sharp book has -7 while my square book has -7.5. Plenty of options, but I'm just starting to view this one more as a coinflip. Oakland is just so undisciplined though that I really like SD in this must win spot.

[Redscot]

F-It I'll risk being Vegas' sucker tonight, won't be the first or the last time, I'm gonna lay the 7 as well as the teaser....I just don't see it for Oak...S.D. is at home, better QB by a good margin...Oak secondary hurt up, McFadden....etc. I really am worried that the line didn't move in my favor, but gonna go with the gut for better or worse. GL all .

[Anthonyg7]

Took SD at -7 few minutes ago.. good luck with whatever you decide and this upcoming weekend LTA

[Love The Action]

F-It I'll risk being Vegas' sucker tonight, won't be the first or the last time, I'm gonna lay the 7 as well as the teaser....I just don't see it for Oak...S.D. is at home, better QB by a good margin...Oak secondary hurt up, McFadden....etc. I really am worried that the line didn't move in my favor, but gonna go with the gut for better or worse. GL all .

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Took SD at -7 few minutes ago.. good luck with whatever you decide and this upcoming weekend LTA

Same to you Tony

[Redscot]

Good luck!

Thanks bro . S.D.'s penalty woes at the line of scrimmage is just incredible , wow.

[Redscot]

Well that was a rather disheartening drive by the Raider's......Talk about stuffing it down their throat! River's is gonna have to stop pussy footing it out here and open it up, can't be playing afraid to make a mistake, not his nature.

[alamo]

Did you watch the Broncos-Raiders game? I was on the Broncos, but really liked what I was seeing from Carson Palmer. He threw three picks, but that seems fairly incidental compared to how much more comfortable he was looking than in the previous game. His arm strength looked good, and he hit 6 different receivers for 20+ yard plays. I suspect the Raiders are going to show up tomorrow.

[Redscot]

F-It I'll risk being Vegas' sucker tonight, won't be the first or the last time, I'm gonna lay the 7 as well as the teaser....I just don't see it for Oak...S.D. is at home, better QB by a good margin...Oak secondary hurt up, McFadden....etc. I really am worried that the line didn't move in my favor, but gonna go with the gut for better or worse. GL all .

Yup, they got me . Hit the hay early, so didn't see the second half.....but the way the raiders were dominating the trenches in the 1st half showed me all I needed to see. I can't believe the Chargers are this mediocre, wow.

[Love The Action]

Did you watch the Broncos-Raiders game? I was on the Broncos, but really liked what I was seeing from Carson Palmer. He threw three picks, but that seems fairly incidental compared to how much more comfortable he was looking than in the previous game. His arm strength looked good, and he hit 6 different receivers for 20+ yard plays. I suspect the Raiders are going to show up tomorrow.

Great scouting report

Glad I stayed off SD....

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey boys, just got done with the den @ kc game. Think we got some value here. My model has kc -1/44.7. The side is where i see potential. Weighted team efficiency, off and def dvoa are a wash pretty much with a slight edge to denver. Special teams reveal the same thing. Def line play shows a tremendous advantage to denver who ranks 7th in run stopping and 6th in pass rush with kc at 22nd and 32nd respectively. Off line stats show a significant edge to denver in run blocking. I think denver has turned the corner, and with tebows ability to extend plays, could present issues for an ineffective kc pass rush which ranks 32nd. Kc is coming off a stinker at miami, and denver is riding high. Im am thinking of a play on denver +3. Thoughts???

[Donnie Brasco]

My complete nfl card:
Jax -3 2x
Den +3 2x
Saints pk 1x
Miami -4 1x
Jets -1 1x
Pitt -3 1x
Carolina -3.5 1x
Best of luck all !

[Love The Action]

Hey boys, just got done with the den @ kc game. Think we got some value here. My model has kc -1/44.7. The side is where i see potential. Weighted team efficiency, off and def dvoa are a wash pretty much with a slight edge to denver. Special teams reveal the same thing. Def line play shows a tremendous advantage to denver who ranks 7th in run stopping and 6th in pass rush with kc at 22nd and 32nd respectively. Off line stats show a significant edge to denver in run blocking. I think denver has turned the corner, and with tebows ability to extend plays, could present issues for an ineffective kc pass rush which ranks 32nd. Kc is coming off a stinker at miami, and denver is riding high. Im am thinking of a play on denver +3. Thoughts???

Personally, I dont see the spread option working 2 weeks in a row. Either Tebow gets kilked and they go back to orton or brady sans their best best receiver or kc shuts them down. The option worked against oakland because they played very undisciplined and did not follow their assignments. Plus, the raiders kept them in the game with a crazy amount of penalties (i think they had over 10 but not sure). I'm just not sold on denver or tebow at arrowhead this week. Let's see where the line goes. Good luck!

[Donnie Brasco]

My complete nfl card:
Jax -3 2x
Den +3 2x
Saints pk 1x
Miami -4 1x
Jets -1 1x
Pitt -3 1x
Carolina -3.5 1x
Best of luck all !

Adding saints pk 1x for 2x total

[No coincidences]

Yup, they got me . Hit the hay early, so didn't see the second half.....but the way the raiders were dominating the trenches in the 1st half showed me all I needed to see. I can't believe the Chargers are this mediocre, wow.

"Mediocre" is too kind Red.

They're in disarray.

[GGALLERT]

Easy $$

Personally, I dont see the spread option working 2 weeks in a row. Either Tebow gets kilked and they go back to orton or brady sans their best best receiver or kc shuts them down. The option worked against oakland because they played very undisciplined and did not follow their assignments. Plus, the raiders kept them in the game with a crazy amount of penalties (i think they had over 10 but not sure). I'm just not sold on denver or tebow at arrowhead this week. Let's see where the line goes. Good luck!

I agree with LTA here, I am from Denver and they are continually dumbing the offense for Tebow. I see Tebow getting blasted early being forced to throw the ball down field which we all know how inaccurate he is. Not saying bet the mortgage on KC, just a car payment.

[Redscot]

Boy, this is a rough looking card from where I am sitting. Very little I like. Might be a day to tail all the way for me.....looking forward to the picks LTA.

[MrXYZ]

I'm with you on the Bills/Cowboys over 48. Good luck everyone.

[suicidekings]

Hey boys, just got done with the den @ kc game. Think we got some value here. My model has kc -1/44.7. The side is where i see potential. Weighted team efficiency, off and def dvoa are a wash pretty much with a slight edge to denver. Special teams reveal the same thing. Def line play shows a tremendous advantage to denver who ranks 7th in run stopping and 6th in pass rush with kc at 22nd and 32nd respectively. Off line stats show a significant edge to denver in run blocking. I think denver has turned the corner, and with tebows ability to extend plays, could present issues for an ineffective kc pass rush which ranks 32nd. Kc is coming off a stinker at miami, and denver is riding high. Im am thinking of a play on denver +3. Thoughts???

This is exactly why I like KC so much in this game.

Denver is a solid rushing team, and Oakland is horrible at stopping the run. I would say a pretty sizable amount of the Broncos success last week was the resultant of playing against a team that was not well equipped to handle them. Not to mention that Palmer was still getting accustomed to the Raider offense.

DEN @ KC is a much more balanced matchup, and KC has had a week at home following an embarrassing loss to Miami. Last week, the Chiefs were also coming off a short week and a huge come from behind win in OT over the Chargers on MNF. The difference in last week's game came from big plays by the Dolphins, taking advantage of multiple injured players in the KC secondary that are mostly returning to action this week.

This is a great spot for KC to get a win over a Broncos team that is unlikely to be overly consistent on a week to week basis. KC's gameplan will be to contain the Broncos running game, which means controlling McGahee at the line of scrimmage and pressuring Tebow without allowing him to escape and run. If they can make Tebow throw the ball, the Chiefs will win this game.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Bills/Cowboys over (48) 2x (Locked)

I've been watching this one all day and just don't see it going down to 47, so I'm going to lock it in now. First, the Buffalo defense is really struggling right now, especially against the pass. They are suffering from a few injuries that are affecting both their secondary and pass rush. On the other despite, despite some horrible offensive efficiency in the red zone, the Cowboys offense is moving the ball at will right now with the addition of Demarco Murray at rb. That running game with Murray really opens up the play action and keeps the linebackers away from defending that deep in to Dez Bryant across the middle. Miles Austin will be out a couple weeks, but I don't see this affecting Dallas' ability to move the ball against this Buffalo defense. The Bills offense had been playing unbelievably efficient until facing that Jets buzzsaw at home last week. I expect a turnaround performance from Ryan Fitzgerald and Co. on the road, playing against another Ryan family coached defense. Buffalo is a top 5 defense in Off EPA and WPA as well as Passing EPA and WPA in addition to top 5 DVOA efficiency. Buffalo will be playing on a fast track in warm temps which will be conducive to their passing attack. I expect a rebound from Buffalo's skill position players, especially Johnson and Jackson. I have this game set at 51 and we are covering the key number of 48, while getting three points of value. I would have liked to get 47 for coverage on that key number, but I just see this number going up throughout the week and I am rolling with the over for 2x now and I might add a bit later as well. Good luck.

Added 2x for total of 4x on Play #1 Buffalo/Dallas over (48) (Locked)

I love this play and think its time for a breakout game from both offenses. I have to up the stake to reflect my confidence and nothing in the line movement says otherwise. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Bills/Cowboys over (48) 4x (Locked)

I've been watching this one all day and just don't see it going down to 47, so I'm going to lock it in now. First, the Buffalo defense is really struggling right now, especially against the pass. They are suffering from a few injuries that are affecting both their secondary and pass rush. On the other despite, despite some horrible offensive efficiency in the red zone, the Cowboys offense is moving the ball at will right now with the addition of Demarco Murray at rb. That running game with Murray really opens up the play action and keeps the linebackers away from defending that deep in to Dez Bryant across the middle. Miles Austin will be out a couple weeks, but I don't see this affecting Dallas' ability to move the ball against this Buffalo defense. The Bills offense had been playing unbelievably efficient until facing that Jets buzzsaw at home last week. I expect a turnaround performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. on the road, playing against another Ryan family coached defense. Buffalo is a top 5 defense in Off EPA and WPA as well as Passing EPA and WPA in addition to top 5 DVOA efficiency. Buffalo will be playing on a fast track in warm temps which will be conducive to their passing attack. I expect a rebound from Buffalo's skill position players, especially Johnson and Jackson. I have this game set at 51 and we are covering the key number of 48, while getting three points of value. I would have liked to get 47 for coverage on that key number, but I just see this number going up throughout the week and I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chiefs (-3) 1x (Locked)

See my thoughts above. I also agree with SK about his points respecting this game. Tebow loses this one as KC will force him to pasd in a tough game at Arrowhead. Good luck.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, what do you think about the Dogs today ? Colts ML, Hawks ML, Buccs ML or the Giants ML. I like these 4 dogs but not sure if I should take them.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, what do you think about the Dogs today ? Colts ML, Hawks ML, Buccs ML or the Giants ML. I like these 4 dogs but not sure if I should take them.

Other than the KC side, which I have at -4.5, I think the side plays you mentioned and lines therefor are incredibly sharp. To be honest, I don't like any of the teams you mentioned on the ML. However, you never know with the spread. All of those dogs could cover ATS or get blown out. Welcome to the NFL. I am passing on those particular side plays, but I wish you luck.

I do have possible total leans in a few of those, especially the Bucs game.

[SUPREME]

Hey LTA...I know your usually bigger on totals, but I need an opinion on a side. I'm loving the Falcons at home at PK. Thinking of a large play on this. Any thoughts?