LTA's NFL PLays

[Trivial]

Congrats in hitting your over in the 3rd LTA. Much better than sweating it out.

[Love The Action]

Congrats in hitting your over in the 3rd LTA. Much better than sweating it out.

[Redscot]

Nice finish to a rocky weekend bro, Pitt game +4 units, over Sunday night game and MLB under looking solid . Good things are coming, I can feel it Have a good evening all.

[Love The Action]

Nice finish to a rocky weekend bro, Pitt game +4 units, over Sunday night game and MLB under looking solid . Good things are coming, I can feel it Have a good evening all.

Big week...gotta figure things will start falling into place. As long as we keep spotting value and beating closers, the winners will come. Good luck this week Red

[No coincidences]

Big week...gotta figure things will start falling into place. As long as we keep spotting value and beating closers, the winners will come. Good luck this week Red

Nice work LTA.

[Trivial]

Enough of my own plays. LTA owns Sunday and Monday night football. LTA, I will tail tonight. Unlike my Indy bet last night. Got saved with a 2h OVER bet.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

This line is all over the place early...I think someone bought down to buy back up. I'm buying the over at the key number of 41 and I trust it will close much higher. I have this one at 44, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. More to come. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Holy crap...that Indy total is at 43 now at 5D....the local that I took 41 now has 42. I should have unloaded on 41...live and learn.

I am off work today, so I will be making plays for Week 8 NFL and Week 9 NCAAF where I think there is value. I am trying to get a jump on all the early lines so I am trying to run as many games as possible through my model and get them capped today. That way I can jump on the value now or at least know what numbers I am looking for throughout the week.

Great way to spend a vacation day! As long as we stay away from the bad beats, I am expecting a very successful Week 8 NFL and Week 9 NCAAF. Already have a play on Illinois +6.5 in my NCAAF thread for those that care.

Good luck!

[Trivial]

43.5 now. Is the value gone? Also, I take it no play tonight. If I had to pick, I'd go Jags +10, but haven't pulled the trigger.

[Love The Action]

43.5 now. Is the value gone? Also, I take it no play tonight. If I had to pick, I'd go Jags +10, but haven't pulled the trigger.

As I said above, I have it at 44. Therefore, the way I see it, you could either (1) wait it out this week and see where the line goes, (2) by down to 43 for -120 odds (not generally recommended for totals) or (3) jump on it.

I would probably wait. It might come back down...you never really know but I don't see it going above 44.

As far as tonight, if you check back last page I made my MNF play yesterday on the under. I bought it 40 and it has since dropped to 38.5. Wait and see if it comes back up. I would not take it below 39 though...

Good luck Triv...MLB total coming up pretty soon as well

[Trivial]

As I said above, I have it at 44. Therefore, the way I see it, you could either (1) wait it out this week and see where the line goes, (2) by down to 43 for -120 odds (not generally recommended for totals) or (3) jump on it.

I would probably wait. It might come back down...you never really know but I don't see it going above 44.

As far as tonight, if you check back last page I made my MNF play yesterday on the under. I bought it 40 and it has since dropped to 38.5. Wait and see if it comes back up. I would not take it below 39 though...

Good luck Triv...MLB total coming up pretty soon as well

Thanks LTA. You are very wise. I did not see the UNDER play yesterday in between all the other plays. DOH!

I will wait both the UNDER for tonight ad OVER on Indy and watch both lines. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Lions (-4) 1x (Locked)

OK, I'll bite. Once I saw the steam start to come in, I had to lock the Lions up at -4. As I stated above, the Lions and Steelers are my two highest rated plays on the side today. I have the Lions set at -5.5, but that's really close to being -6. I think the defense makes all the difference today. The Lions are really making a statement that they want to be the best defensive line in football and stats support that position. Despite their iffy running back situation, I expect the Lions to establish themselves as an elite team in this game. Their home field advantage is huge and coming off last week's killer loss, I expect a razor sharp focus. The Lions have the better statistical offense, defense and special teams, and with them playing at home with strong motivation, I have to roll with them for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Steelers/Cardinals over (44) 1x (Locked)

My 3x play on the Steelers is not predicated on the lack of a Cardinals offense, it's primarily a fade of Arizona's defense. I fully expect Larry Fitzgerald and co. to score some points against Pittsburgh. However, when it's said and done, I expect the Steelers to win this game by 7 points. The stats here are just squarely in favor of the Steelers and I expect them to get Mendenhall going today. However, let's not sleep on the Arizona's offense which has some encouraging advanced stat love. I have this game set at 46 and it's certainly headed that way as evidenced by the line movement. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Ravens/Jaguars under (40) 1x (Locked)


I expect a strong defensive battle with Baltimore ultimately proving victorious, but not necessarily covering the spread. In this game, Jax actually has a solid defense and really solid defensive line according to the advanced efficiency stats. On the other side, we all know about Baltimore's vaunted defense. Let's face it, with Jax playing Blainee Gabbert against this Balty defense, Jax could be in trouble because of all the different defensive looks and blitzes that Balty employs. On the other side, even though Balty's offense has been really good so far this season, I do not expect an offensive explosition with Flacco facing this tough Jax D. As we know, all NFL teams play with a high level of pride and Jax is no different. If they are going to put up a fight, it will be via there defense. Look for Jax to put pressure on Flacco with that highly ranked D-line. I think Rice will have a good game on the ground because Jax is going to take away the big pass play. That will lead to ball control offense and long drives with short passes, screen passes and a lot of runs from Balty. I have this one set at the key number of 37 and I would play any number at 39 or higher. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Colts/Saints over (48) 1x (Locked)

Once I saw this number flash over the screen ever so briefly, I had no choice but to bit. I have this total set at 50 and probably wouldn't have taken 49, but once I could cover the key number of 48 on the push I had to take it. Curtis Painter has performed well so far this year and the Saints will be looking for an explosive performance after their loss last week to the Bucs. I expect a lot of scoring in this game early and often. The Saints play a quick pace with big play ability and the Colts will have no choice but to get the ball to their biggest playmakers who are all receivers. Therefore, I expect this one to just squeak over the posted total and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Triv was asking about tonight's play. I posted the Balty/Jax under last night as Play # 8 and just did a short writeup on it above. I would take the under at any number above 39. I really need this one and I think we get it. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA. You are very wise. I did not see the UNDER play yesterday in between all the other plays. DOH!

I will wait both the UNDER for tonight ad OVER on Indy and watch both lines. Thanks.

Try to at least get 39 for tonight. That way you cover the key number of 38 and push on a total ending 39. Good luck!

[nmodi]

Hi LTA..

For this week Minn/Carolina....the total right now at 47.5?

I have strong lean on ov? Any thought???

Thanks and BOL for today's play

[Trivial]

Try to at least get 39 for tonight. That way you cover the key number of 38 and push on a total ending 39. Good luck!

Got it. Thanks!

[Love The Action]

Hi LTA..

For this week Minn/Carolina....the total right now at 47.5?

I have strong lean on ov? Any thought???

Thanks and BOL for today's play

I haven't looked in-depth on this one yet. But I'm a little hesitant to go over here. Minnesota has a great defensive line with Allen off the edge and Ponder is only making his second start. Cam Newton looks pretty damn good as long as he's running, but he's always good for a pick or two.

I'm just not sure. I would lean over if 46 was available. However, it's at 47.5 now...that's an important key number and so is 48 and 49. This one could be tricky...gotta think about it more. Good luck .

[Dexter]

clear your pm box

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7 Recap

4 - 5 = +0.7x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

41 - 37 = +2.5x

We could have had a huge week if not for those bad beats on Houston under and Bears over...man, these bad beats have to even out now...variance is on our side for once

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I jumped on this number early and was rewarded (for now) as the line currently sits at 43. I just think we saw two teams basically shut out on offense in week 7 and both should bounce back nicely. I actually like Curtis Painter and thought Indy just was victimized too many mistakes early on to compete against NO. However, Painter made some nice throws and should only improve his timing with another week of practice. It's now or never for the Titans...they need to come out strong and so does Chris Johnson. At some point he will have a breakout game and I think that comes against this week Colts rushing defense. The Titans can be exposed through the air and Indy can be exposed on the ground and through the air for that matter. We have protection at the most important key totals number in the NFL with 41, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Here's the only play for Week 8 so far...GL

[No coincidences]

Nice hit on the under LTA. Easy money at its best.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, this week I like the Steelers ML, the Bills - 5.5 and the Cowboys + 3,5. What do you think about them ?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

This line is all over the place early...I think someone bought down to buy back up. I'm buying the over at the key number of 41 and I trust it will close much higher. I have this one at 44, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. More to come. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

This line is starting to move and I dont want to risk losing out on the key number of 48, so I'm going to lock this in now and hope it doesnt go up beyond 48. Writeup to come...good luck.

[sipdawg7]

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

This line is starting to move and I dont want to risk losing out on the key number of 48, so I'm going to lock this in now and hope it doesnt go up beyond 48. Writeup to come...good luck.

What do you mean by "key number" for 48, and for 41 for your other play?

[Love The Action]

What do you mean by "key number" for 48, and for 41 for your other play?

There are certain key numbers in NFL for both sides and totals that hit at a higher percentage than other numbers. Therefore, you want to bet in relation to those numbers. For example, you want to bet at 41 on the over rather than 42 or 43 because 41 is the most common final score in football. Therefore, in the long term, if you bet the over at 42 or 43 where 41 was offered, you are going to lose (for example, I'm taking a big risk betting the NE/Pit over at 52 this week instead of 51). I cannot stress enough how important key numbers are in betting NFL. There are many more key numbers than what I mention below, but that will give you an idea. Google NFL key numbers and start you research

The most common 7 results for NFL totals is 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43 and 33.

The most common 7 results for NFL sides are as follows 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14 and 1.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

All writeups to come later. I should have bought the NE total at 50.5 when I had the chance, but I wasn't sure about that over until I looked a little deeper last night. I thought the opener for the Eagles total was accurate at 51, so I'll jump on that over for the Sunday night game. Good luck.

[BigDan]

Love the pats/steelers over, actually got that at 50.5....missed the 41 you got on indy/ten so hesitant to play it unless it comes back down, still think a decent chance of it going over as neither team is doing shit defensively and one would think indy comes out with a little fire after the drumming they took last sunday night....

Curious as to your thoughts on the min/car under as since this thing has ticked down under 47 i am very tempted to play the over here. both teams are solid offensively at the thing the opposing defense is worst at stopping, both teams struggle getting off the field on 3rd downs, granted either is capable of laying a egg which would surely kill any chance of a over...just curious on your thoughts for this one...

[Trivial]

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

All writeups to come later. I should have bought the NE total at 50.5 when I had the chance, but I wasn't sure about that over until I looked a little deeper last night. I thought the opener for the Eagles total was accurate at 51, so I'll jump on that over for the Sunday night game. Good luck.

Thanks LTA. All over these 4 plays. They are solid to me, but unfortunately I am very late, and really missed out on the key numbers you got. I might still play them and buy some points, as I really like em.

Normally, it is a losing battle to buy points, but I think these are warranted, especially the Patriots game.

[Madison]

There are certain key numbers in NFL for both sides and totals that hit at a higher percentage than other numbers. Therefore, you want to bet in relation to those numbers. For example, you want to bet at 41 on the over rather than 42 or 43 because 41 is the most common final score in football. Therefore, in the long term, if you bet the over at 42 or 43 where 41 was offered, you are going to lose (for example, I'm taking a big risk betting the NE/Pit over at 52 this week instead of 51). I cannot stress enough how important key numbers are in betting NFL. There are many more key numbers than what I mention below, but that will give you an idea. Google NFL key numbers and start you research The most common 7 results for NFL totals is 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43 and 33. The most common 7 results for NFL sides are as follows 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14 and 1.

Sports gambling 101. Don't understand this then please only bet what you can afford to lose.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

No Bradford. No Ingram. Saints not scoring in the 60's two weeks in a row and I don't expect much out of St. Louis. Full writeups when I have time. Good luck .

[Love The Action]

Sports gambling 101. Don't understand this then please only bet what you can afford to lose.

Whether you know about key numbers or not, you should only wager what you can afford to lose.

A lot of people are new to sports investing, so I try to help people out and answer their questions. I'm sure at one point, you didn't know about key numbers in the NFL. Cut the guy some slack bud....maybe I'm taking it the wrong way, but you seem like you are coming down on the guy for asking questions.

Anyway, good luck on your plays sir

[Trivial]

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

No Bradford. No Ingram. Saints not scoring in the 60's two weeks in a row and I don't expect much out of St. Louis. Full writeups when I have time. Good luck .

I love this play and I am on it. Same reasons I am taking Saints +13.5. I do not see the blowout either.

[Trivial]

Here are some plays I am eyeing... Cleveland +8.5, Denver +3, Arizona +12, Jags +9, Jags OVER 40.5 and I took Saints +13.5.

[Trivial]

Also really tempting me is Indy +8.5, but that one is really hard after last week.

[Redscot]

Mornin' all . LTA came on strong in the late rounds again last night in NCAA to win the split decision . Now let's see if we can get a KO today my man, i ain't no spring chicken and these roller coaster days are taking a toll on me . You know it's all love here, looking forward to your card today .

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

It's very important you get 41 on this game if you like it as well and that number is currently available at 5Dimes, Bodog, Bet365, etc. I'm working on the rest of the card, but will post plays as I make them and circle back for writeups if there is time. I want to make sure I post as soon as possible after locking in so you guys can get the same numbers if you also like the play. This the time of the morning for big line moves as well, so I have a lot of work to do. Good luck.