Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[Gilly86]

Amazing work with the pick last night. Your write ups are incredible. You do a great job, keep it up!

[riggs]

64%? Each week you rate is dropping. I'm done for the season at 70%. Good luck finishing yours. I think you'll be around 60% at the end. Nothing special in the long-run. Rates like 60% in 1 season are bound to return to 50% the next season. It's only the 65+% or 70+% rates that are special.

And unrealistic pal, anyone who claims such is either a liar, or a lottery winner.


Do you have any idea how hard it is to consistently hit at over 60%??????????????


Even hitting at over 50% consistently is extremely hard.


Maybe, and that's a BIG MAYBE, your idea of success is possible if you're only picking 1 or 2 games a week.


Nice job on the year MAX, keep up the good effort buddy!!!


BOL, and Merry Christmas...


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____

2008 NFL Plays ATS = 157-96 (62%)
2009 NFL Plays ATS = 98-70 (58%)
2010 NFL Plays ATS = 95-61 (61%)
My New Radio Show: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/sbr-riggs
Riggs on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/...00001743328878

[Chucker]

Hey man, just started following your thread some this week. I appreciate that you actually share your thoughts on how you come to a pick, unlike a lot of these other meatheads who just give the picks and expect us to follow blind. I feel like I'm actually learnin something! Best of luck!

[Capybara]

Hey Max, just checked out your thread yesterday. Kudos on the thorough write-ups! Nice pick last night, my first instinct was to lay the chalk but I thought about it too long and talked myself into a No Play! Oh well. Keep up the good work.

By the way, I'm 7-0 , +10 units in my last seven plays in my thread... Trying to build a following like some of you other dudes. :-). But usually don't have time for those detailed write-ups!

[Maxlock]

Hey Max, just checked out your thread yesterday. Kudos on the thorough write-ups! Nice pick last night, my first instinct was to lay the chalk but I thought about it too long and talked myself into a No Play! Oh well. Keep up the good work.

By the way, I'm 7-0 , +10 units in my last seven plays in my thread... Trying to build a following like some of you other dudes. :-). But usually don't have time for those detailed write-ups!

It takes a lot of time for sure. You're on the right track. Bol to you.

Thank you for all the support to everyone who reads my thread!

Merry Christmas, enjoy and be safe!

[Cicima6709]

Hey Maxlock, are all your plays for the same amount of units?

I like the Cowboys tonight, got them -6.5 at -115. Gonna tease them with a couple sunday games too. GL.

[low Q]

It takes a lot of time for sure. You're on the right track. Bol to you.

Thank you for all the support to everyone who reads my thread!

Merry Christmas, enjoy and be safe!

Merry Christmas to you too Max! Thanks for all the picks and great write-ups.... you are - indeed, "the man"!

[Maxlock]

Hey Maxlock, are all your plays for the same amount of units? I like the Cowboys tonight, got them -6.5 at -115. Gonna tease them with a couple sunday games too. GL.

Yes, all the plays are valued the same amount. BOL

[StackinGreen]

Max, do you generally stay away from Week 17? It's been a rule of mine for years and NFL is my specialty. I like what I've seen from you lately, give credit where it's due, but these last couple of weeks seem very random and it is a bit scary that so many people are pressing the favorites this week (including you), in rather meaningless games. Then again, I think a majority of weeks since Week 6 or so have been killing the books, so why not run the streak? Best of luck, boss, I'll be watching. Keep it rolling!

My next top play will likely be during Playoffs.

[StackinGreen]

And unrealistic pal, anyone who claims such is either a liar, or a lottery winner.


Do you have any idea how hard it is to consistently hit at over 60%??????????????


Even hitting at over 50% consistently is extremely hard.


Maybe, and that's a BIG MAYBE, your idea of success is possible if you're only picking 1 or 2 games a week.


Nice job on the year MAX, keep up the good effort buddy!!!


BOL, and Merry Christmas...


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____

2008 NFL Plays ATS = 157-96 (62%)
2009 NFL Plays ATS = 98-70 (58%)
2010 NFL Plays ATS = 95-61 (61%)
My New Radio Show: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/sbr-riggs
Riggs on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/...00001743328878

I would say any man playing more than 3 games a week for more than 14 weeks of an NFL season will not be anywhere near 70%.

I DO believe that you can hit 70+ if you jump on opportunities and stay very discplined, playing sparingly and big. I've done this recently.

The problem with gamblers is that in general they can't hold back once the weekend comes. For most, it's not about ROI but rather entertainment (and that's why they lose in the long run). It isn't easy, but it's not impossible if you don't let emotions/entertainment control what you do.

[Maxlock]

Max, do you generally stay away from Week 17? It's been a rule of mine for years and NFL is my specialty. I like what I've seen from you lately, give credit where it's due, but these last couple of weeks seem very random and it is a bit scary that so many people are pressing the favorites this week (including you), in rather meaningless games. Then again, I think a majority of weeks since Week 6 or so have been killing the books, so why not run the streak? Best of luck, boss, I'll be watching. Keep it rolling!

My next top play will likely be during Playoffs.

Although there will be many meaningless games in week 17, I think you can still find between 3-5 games with value in the lines. As far as teams resting players for the playoffs ill just have to go back a few seasons and try to locate how certain teams and coaches do in these spots. More on that when week 17 rolls around.

I still haven't posted the Sunday plays so ill post them Saturday afternoon.

For those who missed it earlier-Dallas -7 over Arizona for tommorrows game

[StackinGreen]

Good luck. Thanks, I'll stay tuned.

[hoku808pc]

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: (odds of Sportsbook.com as of 12:00 pm 12/22)

1)Pittsburgh -14.5 over Carolina-analysis written
-buy the half point to make Pittsburgh -14

SUNDAY EARLY RELEASE #1

2) Baltimore -3.5 over Cleveland
-buy the half point to make Baltimore -3
-Bank it now before the line goes up

*Rarely do I recommend buying the half points. In these situations I would. But if your book does not allow this, I'd still take both these games with confidence.

Hey bro... Don't forget about Balt -3...

I got 2 plays in so far with you:

Dallas -7

Balt -3

[Maxlock]

Hey bro... Don't forget about Balt -3...

I got 2 plays in so far with you:

Dallas -7

Balt -3

Yea. Thanks man

[shopbar picks]

I think dallas is playing for simple pride. To make up for the horrid start. The cards have nothing to play for. Great pick. Have a Merry Christmas. Spb

[VTranX]

hey Maxlock; You are the only person on here that I trust for sports picks, which says a great deal because I've been on this forum for a good amount of time. You give such a thorough game analysis that it's tough to bet against it and most important of all they always seem to hit!

I had leaned toward betting Arizona +7 (12/25) but going switch it to Dallas. Hit or miss, i'm going to be tailing you the rest of the way. GL and Merry Christmas!

[shopbar picks]

Dallas has played alot of holliday games. Not a real believer of past performances in certian situations. But your call on the steelers was spot on after a loss. But the question is. Does dallas play better on/in holliday games? Wont change my pick on the boys. But just curious if you know. Thanx again SPB

[Dexter]

I've analyzed 5 or so games this week. I'm responding to this message via cell phone, therefore I'm unable to provide an adequate analytical reaponse. I have a documented 25-12-2 ATS record since I joined sbr week 10. Take my bet or leave it that's your decision. So is our wager of 100 sbr points on or no?

nice job max.....yeah, no one really cares about your "67%" before SBR.....nice to see you have backed up that claim with a nice run since joining.

do you play all games of equal size?

you did mention "free plays" earlier in the thread. do you sell other "top" games?

[Dexter]

In the past all i did was bet on my own picks. Therefore, I never felt the need to document via some sort of site. People around me recently suggested that I take this succesful hobby up publicly to prove all the doubters out there wrong and help people beat the books over the entire season. So to answer your question, yes the picks are free and no I don't run a site just yet, because I'm still new to public handicapping. Rest assured you'll make money doing my picks. The one suggestion I have to all my followers is that all my games are weighted equally. So whatever you put one game do the same for the others. I do my homework like non other and make my decisions completely unbiased, where as some handicappers weigh certain information too much and that is the ultimate downfall. Another thing, I don't fall into the trap of public betting, I've been following spreads and how teams respond in certain situations for quite some time. So my 30-15-5 ATS NFL record is not surprising for the people who have been following my advice.

nevermind max.....i got my answer.

not quite sure why you dont practice weighted gambling though....

[Dexter]

64%? Each week you rate is dropping. I'm done for the season at 70%. Good luck finishing yours. I think you'll be around 60% at the end. Nothing special in the long-run. Rates like 60% in 1 season are bound to return to 50% the next season. It's only the 65+% or 70+% rates that are special.

based on how many games played in a season? and also, do these games involve spreads or totals only? (no moneylines or buying pts)

[Maxlock]

Dallas has played alot of holliday games. Not a real believer of past performances in certian situations. But your call on the steelers was spot on after a loss. But the question is. Does dallas play better on/in holliday games? Wont change my pick on the boys. But just curious if you know. Thanx again SPB

There haven't been many Christmas football games played in the history of the NFL. Dallas has only played in 4. They won in 1971 and 1995, but lost in 2000 and 2006.

Dallas has played in 42 of 44 Thanksgiving games. In their last five Thanksgiving games they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS.

[TheTreeOfLife]

good luck with the plays max!
happy holidays to you and your family!

[Capybara]

Merry Christmas to Max and everyone else in here!

Max, I'm curious, are you keeping your record since you started this thread? Is anyone else keeping it? I'd like to see your exact record (and units) of plays posted in here. As everyone has already mentioned, this is all we care about, as anyone can say they've been hitting 67 or 75 or 86.3 percent of their plays when it's not documented.

In any event, as I've said I appreciate the effort you put in here w/ the long, detailed writeups, and from what I've noticed you are hitting at a decent clip.

But I really hope I can keep the great roll going in my thread as well!

[Maxlock]

Merry Christmas to Max and everyone else in here!

Max, I'm curious, are you keeping your record since you started this thread? Is anyone else keeping it? I'd like to see your exact record (and units) of plays posted in here. As everyone has already mentioned, this is all we care about, as anyone can say they've been hitting 67 or 75 or 86.3 percent of their plays when it's not documented.

In any event, as I've said I appreciate the effort you put in here w/ the long, detailed writeups, and from what I've noticed you are hitting at a decent clip.

But I really hope I can keep the great roll going in my thread as well!

I keep track of everything. I came on here starting week 10 with an undocumented 30-15-5 ATS record.

Starting from week 10 until now my documented record, with all plays recorded in this thread stands at 30-16-2 ATS.

[Capybara]

I keep track of everything. I came on here starting week 10 with an undocumented 30-15-5 ATS record.

Starting from week 10 until now my documented record, with all plays recorded in this thread stands at 30-16-2 ATS.

Wow, that's incredible, those are nearly identical! Great job, Maximillian! Have you been tallying it in here for "the people"? You should do that so people don't disbelieve (like me, I am a pretty strong skeptic in general!) So can anyone else vouch for the above?

Due to the action on the forum today, guess I'm not the only lonely soul on this holiday!

[Capybara]

P.S. Wait, I just thought of something else: Are some of those chalky plays, like you buying the hook, etc.? A lot of -130, -140, stuff like that?

I only ask because in my thread I keep it to strict ATS, so all my plays are true, like between +100 and -115.

[Maxlock]

P.S. Wait, I just thought of something else: Are some of those chalky plays, like you buying the hook, etc.? A lot of -130, -140, stuff like that?

I only ask because in my thread I keep it to strict ATS, so all my plays are true, like between +100 and -115.

No. I only recommended buying the hook twice all season, which happens to be this week. BUT for recording keeping ATS purposes I only take into account the original spread that sportsbook.com lists.

[StackinGreen]

Hold on, I've seen you buy the half twice in the last 2 weeks, minimum. I'm not trying to bust your balls, but Capybara has a point.

I think a price is only a legit tout if you can get it at at least 3 different offshore or stip casinos.

That's just me. In a recent challenge my friends and I agreed that this is what should be adhered to. Otherwise, it's not really ATS, although it can be a fine play.

[Maxlock]

Wow, that's incredible, those are nearly identical! Great job, Maximillian! Have you been tallying it in here for "the people"? You should do that so people don't disbelieve (like me, I am a pretty strong skeptic in general!) So can anyone else vouch for the above?

Due to the action on the forum today, guess I'm not the only lonely soul on this holiday!

My first post on this thread states that I had a 30-15-5 ATS record going into week 10.(undocumented)...From week 10 until now I have a documented record of 30-16-2, which goes to show that my first claim was indeed true.

I'm not here to peddle my picks but only to win some Damn $$ for myself and everyone else!

[vegasbob]

please no bull shit

[Dexter]

My first post on this thread states that I had a 30-15-5 ATS record going into week 10.(undocumented)...From week 10 until now I have a documented record of 30-16-2, which goes to show that my first claim was indeed true.

I'm not here to peddle my picks but only to win some Damn $$ for myself and everyone else!

i dont get why you play all games for the same amount of money.

anyway, good luck on tonights game...

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping Week 16 Slate (odds of sportsbook.com as of 1:00 pm Christmas day)

Thursday: 1) Pittsburgh -14.5 over Carolina-WON

Saturday: 2) Dallas -7 over Arizona

Sunday: 3) NY Jets +1 over Chicago
4) San Diego-Cincinnati Under 44 ( get it now before it drops)
5) Baltimore -3.5 over Cleveland (recommended to buy half point to get -3)
6) Seattle +6.5 over Tampa Bay
*If Dallas covers tonight, I'll add one more play that I'm still considering. If no cover then this is it until Monday Night.
*MNF Pending

BOL and Merry Christmas to all!!

[wunwun]

Thank you for sharing.
Merry Christmas!
Peace on Earth!

[Maxlock]

i dont get why you play all games for the same amount of money.

anyway, good luck on tonights game...

Pretty much let's say if you have 3 picks on any given Sunday and you lose your lock but win the other 2, you'll end up 2-1 but on the losing side moneywise. My way I'd rather keep all games even and come out on top.

I'll do some hypothetical "lock testing" and see how I do. If it works well ill start using units next season.

[low Q]

Thats weird. 5dimes doesn't have bears/jets. Anyone know why?