Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[SteelerNation704]

Also, I haven't bet a Steeler game all year, but I put a large play on them -5 1/2 @ Cleveland this week. I think with the division and a bye week on the line there's no way they don't show up. And if they show up they win by a TD at least easily. Pittsburgh owns Cleveland. Hillis is questionable. Am I missing something with my homer glasses??

[jerome36]

love your picks

Wow quite a difference. I haven't checked the lines of late, but even at -3 Houston I'd still take them.

Max- first time poster. My question is this; I am in a pol and al I ned to do is pick 1 game ATS and I wil win $2000. Who do you feel the strongest about. Do you buy into the idea that the chiefs will rest Casel since they know if he gets hurt they will never win with croyel and if so do the raiders get up to get an NFL record of sweeping the division but not making the playoffs?

[jerome36]

sorry about typo's. My computer is sticking on double leters

[low Q]

Bookmaker has Houston as a 3 point favorite. I'm still tempted to take it if Garrard and MJD will be out...

still nothing on this game on 5d.... amazing... time for a new book

[Maxlock]

Max- first time poster. My question is this; I am in a pol and al I ned to do is pick 1 game ATS and I wil win $2000. Who do you feel the strongest about. Do you buy into the idea that the chiefs will rest Casel since they know if he gets hurt they will never win with croyel and if so do the raiders get up to get an NFL record of sweeping the division but not making the playoffs?

The Chiefs have indicated that they "plan" to play their starters. Whether that means playing them a half, three quarters, or the whole game we don't know that. I don't even think Todd Haley their coach does. And even if he says the starters will play, his decision could change quickly. With or without a win the Chiefs are in the playoffs and they will not have a bye. All in all its tough to say how this game will play out. Oakland matches up well vs KC even beating them earlier in the year. A young team like the Chiefs may not be entirely focused for this game with the playoffs approaching. All in all I wouldn't bet this game.

My best bet for the week would be to go with either #1 Green Bay -10 or #2 St Louis -2.5/3 as long as Charlie Whitehurst is the QB you'll be good. As of right now the plan is to play Whitehurst, but if Hasselback gets better he'll want to play. Both are solid bets.

Btw what happens in your pool in case of a push? Bol in whatever you choose.

[jerome36]

[QUOTE=Maxlock;8137781]The Chiefs have indicated that they "plan" to play their starters. Whether that means playing them a half, three quarters, or the whole game we don't know that. I don't even think Todd Haley their coach does. And even if he says the starters will play, his decision could change quickly. With or without a win the Chiefs are in the playoffs and they will not have a bye. All in all its tough to say how this game will play out. Oakland matches up well vs KC even beating them earlier in the year. A young team like the Chiefs may not be entirely focused for this game with the playoffs approaching. All in all I wouldn't bet this game.

My best bet for the week would be to go with either #1 Green Bay -10 or #2 St Louis -2.5/3 as long as Charlie Whitehurst is the QB you'll be good. As of right now the plan is to play Whitehurst, but if Hasselback gets better he'll want to play. Both are solid bets.

Btw what happens in your pool in case of a push? Bol in whatever you choose.

Its a point total. I'm at 16800, next is 12000 and next is 9500. So if I pick a winner, its done. Thanks for the info!

[Maxlock]

MAXLOCK NFL HANDICAPPING WEEK 17 SLATE: odds off sportsbook.com as of 7:00 pm
1) Houston +2.5 over Jacksonville
2) St. Louis -3 over Seattle
3) Green Bay -10 over Chicago
4) *Pending*

For those who missed this earlier post...

[jerome36]

Thoughts and scenerios
2nd half:
Chicago up 7 or more and pulls starters: GB chases and win but do not cover
Green bay up 14or more late pulls starters and give up a touchdown. win do not cover

Thoughts? I'm thinking a closer point spread is going to lend to both teams fighting al the way. Am i wrong here?

[Maxlock]

Thoughts and scenerios
2nd half:
Chicago up 7 or more and pulls starters: GB chases and win but do not cover
Green bay up 14or more late pulls starters and give up a touchdown. win do not cover

Thoughts? I'm thinking a closer point spread is going to lend to both teams fighting al the way. Am i wrong here?

I don't see Chicago being up in this game at all. Right now Green Bay has a balance of offense and defense that few can compete with during this stretch run.

As for GB pulling their starters, they'll all be playing 60 min.

[jerome36]

Thanks Max. Calm me down. I dont have the gift of just picking a few games and going beter than 50%. I got one and need to be 100%
I'm over thinking at this point! (pulling my hair out)

[Maxlock]

Thanks Max. Calm me down. I dont have the gift of just picking a few games and going beter than 50%. I got one and need to be 100% I'm over thinking at this point! (pulling my hair out)

Take all three games. I can't picture either of these three losing really, 2-1 at worst.

[jerome36]

if you had to pick one and be compensated (wink wink. 10%) what would you do?

[StackinGreen]

Max, what's the fourth? Also, have you commented on how the line is Houston -3 nearly at all strip and offshores?

Thanks, best of luck, I'm with you on most, if not all here.

[Maxlock]

if you had to pick one and be compensated (wink wink. 10%) what would you do?

You're putting me on the spot. I'd go with GB -10. I'm predicting 30-10.

[Maxlock]

Max, what's the fourth? Also, have you commented on how the line is Houston -3 nearly at all strip and offshores?

Thanks, best of luck, I'm with you on most, if not all here.

I love these three games, so unless I change my mind and choose a 4th game I'm only choosing the three games that I already listed.

The Houston line shifted due to David Garrard and MJD not playing.

[jerome36]

done deal. i'll do it.

[low Q]

I love these three games, so unless I change my mind and choose a 4th game I'm only choosing the three games that I already listed.

The Houston line shifted due to David Garrard and MJD not playing.

Wish I could have gotten this at Houston +3, now its -3 at 5d, thinking that's a "no play"

[Maxlock]

Wish I could have gotten this at Houston +3, now its -3 at 5d, thinking that's a "no play"

It's up to you. I'd still take -3 with confidence.

[CROANT]

max - i disagree with your GB & StL picks, but you're better at this than me! bol

[Gilly86]

Love the gb play. What are your thoughts on Det -3?

[Maxlock]

Love the gb play. What are your thoughts on Det -3?

Detroit Minnesota game is tough to call. On one hand Minny is on a short week and will probably be without WR Sydney Rice. The Vikings are playing well with Peterson back in the lineup as they're also playing for interm head coach Leslie Frazier. The lions on the other hand may be limited if Calvin Johnson is still hampered with an ankle injury.

All in all tough game to call. My suggestion, play GB, St Louis, Houston. Bol

[jas19illini]

Part of me likes TB and NYG this week. I havent researched them fully yet, but any quick thoughts on those two games?

[Maxlock]

Part of me likes TB and NYG this week. I havent researched them fully yet, but any quick thoughts on those two games?

Quick thoughts: Not games I'd bet on, but Id lean NYG -4 and TB +8. Giants still have a great pass rush which should fluster Grossman. Rex has played against Dallas and the Jags this year, neither of which have good defenses. NYG will be without Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. So their ability to score will depend on their 3rd WR Mario Manningham and 4th WR Derek Hagan along with the Giants rushing game. The first time these two teams met the Giants rushed for 198 yards.

TB-New Orleans

A critical game for both teams. Saints win and they're in, while the Bucs need a win and a lose by both the Giants and the Packers. The Bucs have really matured as the season has progressed and I expect them to give the Saints a good battle. Its tough to predict whether they'll be able to keep this game close or not. Even with the possibility of Marques Colston sitting this game out after surgery, the Saints have enough weapons to take care of business at home. The last time these two teams met in Tampa, the Bucs got beat 31-6, although they didn't have LeGarrette Blount at their disposal.

All in all, I think the Bucs will give it all they got and keep this game close. I'd lean Tampa +8.

[jas19illini]

Thanks max, i agree, theyre very small plays if anything, but both were pretty decent lines imo.

[hoku808pc]

Hey Max...

Happy New Year brother...

One question though... Why did the GB line move from -10 to -9???

Is it because the public is heavy on Chi???

[Stevedore]

Jets -1? Brian Brohm gets the start for Buffalo, couldn't make GB's roster as a backup. I've seen this guy throw and he's AWFUL! Easily the worst QB in the league. It'll be Brunell vs. Brohm for most of the game and I like the Jets. They'll play hard after losing last week and don't wan to go into the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak.

[Maxlock]

Jets -1? Brian Brohm gets the start for Buffalo, couldn't make GB's roster as a backup. I've seen this guy throw and he's AWFUL! Easily the worst QB in the league. It'll be Brunell vs. Brohm for most of the game and I like the Jets. They'll play hard after losing last week and don't wan to go into the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak.

very likely

[Maxlock]

Hey Max...

Happy New Year brother...

One question though... Why did the GB line move from -10 to -9???

Is it because the public is heavy on Chi???

Last I saw 60% of the money was on Chicago. Not sure why the line is dropping but you need not worry, this will be a blowout.

[Lockitup1x]

A critical game for both teams. Saints win and they're in, while the Bucs need a win and a lose by both the Giants and the Packers.

Saints are already in, but if they beat Tampa and Atl loses to Carolina, they get the one seed.

[captain]

wish you all a happy new year

[City'O'Champs]

Max- I want to compliment you on your concise, relevant analysis and write ups.
It's refreshing to have a grounded writer to follow as opposed to either squares w/ their "life savings lock" or pros bashing squares. Good luck this year and I'll be following closely!

Any suggestions on money management techniques or where to find solid info on the subject? Thanks and BOL!

[Maxlock]

Max- I want to compliment you on your concise, relevant analysis and write ups.
It's refreshing to have a grounded writer to follow as opposed to either squares w/ their "life savings lock" or pros bashing squares. Good luck this year and I'll be following closely!

Any suggestions on money management techniques or where to find solid info on the subject? Thanks and BOL!

Thanks man, I appreciate it. There's a lot of different theories and strategies for money management. For me personally I keep all my bets even for that week. There's many principles for money management you can read online. I can ship you out a great book called "how professional gamblers beat the NFL pointspread." It discusses many important topics, one being money management.

[jerome36]

Max did you ever do an analysis for the rams game?

[Maxlock]

Max did you ever do an analysis for the rams game?

No I had a lot of stuff going on and no time to write it up. I still did all the analysis but not a write up. In any case St Louis -3 is still a solid bet.

[Maxlock]

Max did you ever do an analysis for the rams game?

Did you get my pm I sent before?