Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[StackinGreen]

All my lines stabilized and I locked in: I have Jets +3, Ravens -3, Packers +3, all -110

teasing and parlaying, heaviest weekend of the year

being up helps

LET'S ROLL!

[jas19illini]

Jets +2.5 (-105) 33% of the bets

Packers +2.5 (-105) 47% of the bets

You see these games getting to +3 max/stackingreen?

[Maxlock]

All my lines stabilized and I locked in: I have Jets +3, Ravens -3, Packers +3, all -110

teasing and parlaying, heaviest weekend of the year

being up helps

LET'S ROLL!

You got these spreads at 10% juice..that's a bargain

[Dexter]

Can you guys even guess what's accounting for that GB line being so off?

Reid's playoff first round "success" (although he lost last year in 1st round)?
Vick's year?

With this and the other games, is home field really worth that much? The premium is really high, apparently.

what do you think the line should be?

[jas19illini]

93% of the public is on Baltimore. Before seeing this, I already kind of liked KC in this game. Seeing the public heavily on Baltimore as well kind of reassures my stance. Do either of you guys feel like throwing a couple reasons out as to why you like the Ravens?

[Maxlock]

Jets +2.5 (-105) 33% of the bets

Packers +2.5 (-105) 47% of the bets

You see these games getting to +3 max/stackingreen?

Hmmm kind of tough to tell right now. Watch how the odds change at Pinnacle. That's one of the sharpest books out there. Both of these spreads are currently at +2.5 at Pinnacle (I couldn't find the juice %) So if either of these spreads stay the same or even drop, then the way I see it we are on the right side. Either way both the jets and Pack and Baltimore are solid plays.

[Maxlock]

93% of the public is on Baltimore. Before seeing this, I already kind of liked KC in this game. Seeing the public heavily on Baltimore as well kind of reassures my stance. Do either of you guys feel like throwing a couple reasons out as to why you like the Ravens?

Baltimore is the more balanced team out of the two. WR Dwane Bowe may not even be 100% for this game. Baltimore beat the Pats in Foxboro last year in the playoffs. Don't let the 93% faze you. There's a good chance Vegas will win both Saturday games-if the Seahawks and Jets cover. So a lose here won't hurt them as much. Baltimore was heavily bet week 16 vs Cleveland with 90% of the money on Bal -3 and still covered. Ravens take this.

[jas19illini]

thanks max

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

You really think the Seahawks cover 10.5? I teased the Saints done to 4 and no reason they can't cover that.

[The J-Dizzle]

You really think the Seahawks cover 10.5? I teased the Saints done to 4 and no reason they can't cover that.

You also think Packers will lose by 10+, maybe you two should have a discussion..

I like Saints-4 but maybe a backdoor cover can blow the -10.5 perhaps?

[Maxlock]

You really think the Seahawks cover 10.5? I teased the Saints done to 4 and no reason they can't cover that.

I'm neutral as to who will cover the Saints-Seahawks game. The Saints have some injuries in key spots so its tough to say how well they'll perform. The Seahawks still have a porous secondary that Brees shouldn't have a problem with. So with the Saints teased at -4 you should be good.

[TheTreeOfLife]

thanks for all the info you share with us maxlock
great insight!
bol

[Maxlock]

thanks for all the info you share with us maxlock
great insight!
bol

We're in this together against the books.

[jas19illini]

You really think the Seahawks cover 10.5? I teased the Saints done to 4 and no reason they can't cover that.

I like the Saints teased as well, along with the Jets. The Ravens game im not sure about yet. I do like the GB ML though. Saints/Seahawks at -10.5 is a crapshoot imo. Very hard to tell how the two teams will perform this weekend. Lots of variables on both sides.

[Maxlock]

Wild Card Playoff Picks: odds off sportsbook.com as of 1:00 am 1/5/11
1) GB +2.5 over Philadelphia
2) Baltimore -3 over KC
3) NY Jets +3 over Indy
4) I don't have a play on the Saints-Seahawks.

*As stated before, I won't be on here the entire next week and will miss playoffs round 2.

**Without looking into the spreads and match ups more in depth, I can only advise taking Green Bay over Atlanta next round, barring any significant injury (IF GB advances, the spread will be between +3 to a PK)

***BOL

[Maxlock]

BTW, while I am gone for the 2nd round of the playoffs...I just want to put it out there that Riggs & StackinGreen are both solid NFL cappers so you guys might want to listen to what they have to say. BOL

[jas19illini]

hey max or stackingreen, think its best to grab the GB ML now at +120 in fear of it dropping? I see it dropping rather than going up.

[StackinGreen]

jas, I'm more and more surprised by what I've seen as the week progresses. It makes me feel stronger about my position, though, because there is a lot of confusion / disagreement out there.

I've monitored the Strip book lines all week and they are pretty solid at Ravens -3, Pack +2.5, and Jets moving more to 3. The offshores/onlines seem to be closer to straight 3 (I was surprised and locked immediately) for all the games at -110. Where I lock it is closer to the offshores, obviously.

I don't see you missing much, at worst you get to +115 by Sunday, and maybe you get +125. The level of ignorance of basic football handicapping just astounds me regarding the Packers/Eagles. Let me just spell out why I think Packers +3 is the play of the year (I don't have so much hubris as to not take +3 even though I think GB wins by double digits):

Given that "anything can happen" check this out

1) No one is truly admitting how good the Green Bay defense has been.
2) The Philadelphia defense is average AT BEST, and going up against a pretty prolific offense that matches up well scheme-wise.
3) Why are people dismissing how bad Philadelphia has looked recently? They are similarly dismissing (perhaps because of the last, close rivalry game vs. Chicago) how the Packers absolutely destroyed NYG and really should have won at NE, with a 2nd string QB at the helm.
4) I really do not believe that Vick is 100% and even at full strength I still don't think they have enough against this D.

Yes, Philadelphia is at home, but when was the last time this caliber of defense won against a team the caliber of Green Bay? You can argue they are every bit as good as, or better than, the top seeds in the conference.

As I've said, the fans and the linemakers are WAY off on this game. My line is GB -4.5 and I really think they have a great shot at a double digit win. McCarthy, as usual, is my ONLY worry in this game. Still, I'm housing them. Enjoy it with me come Sunday night.

[jsmithj88]

jas, I'm more and more surprised by what I've seen as the week progresses. It makes me feel stronger about my position, though, because there is a lot of confusion / disagreement out there. I've monitored the Strip book lines all week and they are pretty solid at Ravens -3, Pack +2.5, and Jets moving more to 3. The offshores/onlines seem to be closer to straight 3 (I was surprised and locked immediately) for all the games at -110. Where I lock it is closer to the offshores, obviously. I don't see you missing much, at worst you get to +115 by Sunday, and maybe you get +125. The level of ignorance of basic football handicapping just astounds me regarding the Packers/Eagles. Let me just spell out why I think Packers +3 is the play of the year (I don't have so much hubris as to not take +3 even though I think GB wins by double digits): Given that "anything can happen" check this out 1) No one is truly admitting how good the Green Bay defense has been. 2) The Philadelphia defense is average AT BEST, and going up against a pretty prolific offense that matches up well scheme-wise. 3) Why are people dismissing how bad Philadelphia has looked recently? They are similarly dismissing (perhaps because of the last, close rivalry game vs. Chicago) how the Packers absolutely destroyed NYG and really should have won at NE, with a 2nd string QB at the helm. 4) I really do not believe that Vick is 100% and even at full strength I still don't think they have enough against this D. Yes, Philadelphia is at home, but when was the last time this caliber of defense won against a team the caliber of Green Bay? You can argue they are every bit as good as, or better than, the top seeds in the conference. As I've said, the fans and the linemakers are WAY off on this game. My line is GB -4.5 and I really think they have a great shot at a double digit win. McCarthy, as usual, is my ONLY worry in this game. Still, I'm housing them. Enjoy it with me come Sunday night.

i agree, i really think people are too caught up in the vick highlight reels. hes only beaten 2 winning teams all season ...... giants and colts. vick is gonna have to make things happen with his feet for them to stay iin the game

[lottera90]

yah agree, McCarthy is also my worry really

jas, I'm more and more surprised by what I've seen as the week progresses. It makes me feel stronger about my position, though, because there is a lot of confusion / disagreement out there.

I've monitored the Strip book lines all week and they are pretty solid at Ravens -3, Pack +2.5, and Jets moving more to 3. The offshores/onlines seem to be closer to straight 3 (I was surprised and locked immediately) for all the games at -110. Where I lock it is closer to the offshores, obviously.

I don't see you missing much, at worst you get to +115 by Sunday, and maybe you get +125. The level of ignorance of basic football handicapping just astounds me regarding the Packers/Eagles. Let me just spell out why I think Packers +3 is the play of the year (I don't have so much hubris as to not take +3 even though I think GB wins by double digits):

Given that "anything can happen" check this out

1) No one is truly admitting how good the Green Bay defense has been surebets
2) The Philadelphia defense is average AT BEST, and going up against a pretty prolific offense that matches up well scheme-wise.
3) Why are people dismissing how bad Philadelphia has looked recently? They are similarly dismissing (perhaps because of the last, close rivalry game vs. Chicago) how the Packers absolutely destroyed NYG and really should have won at NE, with a 2nd string QB at the helm.
4) I really do not believe that Vick is 100% and even at full strength I still don't think they have enough against this D.

Yes, Philadelphia is at home, but when was the last time this caliber of defense won against a team the caliber of Green Bay? You can argue they are every bit as good as, or better than, the top seeds in the conference.

As I've said, the fans and the linemakers are WAY off on this game. My line is GB -4.5 and I really think they have a great shot at a double digit win. McCarthy, as usual, is my ONLY worry in this game. Still, I'm housing them. Enjoy it with me come Sunday night.

[jas19illini]

interesting stat i just heard, packers havent trailed by more than 7 pts all year. thats insane.

[StackinGreen]

Let's hope they don't give up a special teams TD to start ...

[jas19illini]

stackin, im teasing the two games today, already plan on teasing jets, but cant decide on the saints/seahawks game. I think i like the seahawks side at +16. thoughts?

[StackinGreen]

You don't get them to 17.5?

[steelers4me]

*As stated before, I won't be on here the entire next week and will miss playoffs round 2.

**Without looking into the spreads and match ups more in depth, I can only advise taking Green Bay over Atlanta next round, barring any significant injury (IF GB advances, the spread will be between +3 to a PK)

***BOL

I think that Seahawks are the play for today

[jas19illini]

its at saints -10 right now stackin.

[jangheesoop]

I like the opinion of "anything can happen". Agree that no one can foresee who will win in sports, that's why sports betting always interesting

jas, I'm more and more surprised by what I've seen as the week progresses. It makes me feel stronger about my position, though, because there is a lot of confusion / disagreement out there.

I've monitored the Strip book lines all week and they are pretty solid at Ravens -3, Pack +2.5, and Jets moving more to 3. The offshores/onlines seem to be closer to straight 3 (I was surprised and locked immediately) for all the games at -110. Where I lock it is closer to the offshores, obviously.

I don't see you missing much, at worst you get to +115 by Sunday, and maybe you get +125. The level of ignorance of basic football handicapping just astounds me regarding the Packers/Eagles. Let me just spell out why I think Packers +3 is the play of the year (I don't have so much hubris as to not take +3 even though I think GB wins by double digits):

Given that "anything can happen" check this out

1) No one is truly admitting how good the Green Bay defense has been surebets
2) The Philadelphia defense is average AT BEST, and going up against a pretty prolific offense that matches up well scheme-wise.
3) Why are people dismissing how bad Philadelphia has looked recently? They are similarly dismissing (perhaps because of the last, close rivalry game vs. Chicago) how the Packers absolutely destroyed NYG and really should have won at NE, with a 2nd string QB at the helm.
4) I really do not believe that Vick is 100% and even at full strength I still don't think they have enough against this D.

Yes, Philadelphia is at home, but when was the last time this caliber of defense won against a team the caliber of Green Bay? You can argue they are every bit as good as, or better than, the top seeds in the conference.

As I've said, the fans and the linemakers are WAY off on this game. My line is GB -4.5 and I really think they have a great shot at a double digit win. McCarthy, as usual, is my ONLY worry in this game. Still, I'm housing them. Enjoy it with me come Sunday night.

[sweethook]

bol man

[martinmobley]

I think that Seahawks are the play for today

why?

[StackinGreen]

jas, what'd you end up doing? Saints off to a great start ...

[jas19illini]

teased seahawks, jets, jets over.

[StackinGreen]

Another game proving my point: If you don't like a team ATS, don't tease them.

My Arizona / Carolina analogy of this game was gold.

Let's see what happens here for the Jets ...

[jas19illini]

Another game proving my point: If you don't like a team ATS, don't tease them.

My Arizona / Carolina analogy of this game was gold.

Let's see what happens here for the Jets ...

pretty good point. ill have to remember that. i also need to stay away from totals. i might be the worst bettor ever when it comes to totals. jeez, come on jets!

[StackinGreen]

It's OK. Jets starting to roll on the ground. Their D is their strength, they are set up just fine. We might sweat a bit though ... I'm not worried, because I think we are good position and

There's always tomorrow

Don't press, just make good plays. Two tomorrow for the taking.

[StackinGreen]

pay the [money] line