Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[riggs]

Yes. Did you get my reply?

Nope, never got it.

I sent you another email, can you resend the reply message to riggs031882@yahoo.com

[jas19illini]

I dont think i can bet the Bears game this week if GB is the play. It'll be a lose lose situation for me lol. Might just make a play on the Steelers game. Gut said Steelers get revenge for late in the regular season, analysis yet to be done though.

Great job so far in the playoffs max. So will your website with Riggs be a pay site or by some stroke of luck a free/donate site?

[Maxlock]

I dont think i can bet the Bears game this week if GB is the play. It'll be a lose lose situation for me lol. Might just make a play on the Steelers game. Gut said Steelers get revenge for late in the regular season, analysis yet to be done though. Great job so far in the playoffs max. So will your website with Riggs be a pay site or by some stroke of luck a free/donate site?

Why can't you go against the Pack? Bears fan im assuming?

Riggs and I are still hashing everything out. I'll let you guys know what the plan of action is once the details are set..

[jas19illini]

Why can't you go against the Pack? Bears fan im assuming?

Riggs and I are still hashing everything out. I'll let you guys know what the plan of action is once the details are set..

Oh yeah. Lived just outside of Chicago my whole life. Huge Bears fan. Might tease the Bears, we'll see.

[Maxlock]

MAXLOCK NFL HANDICAPPING

*I'll release my two selections tomorrow with one write-up, not sure what game that will be on. Nonetheless, I still spend the same time researching the game I don't a write up on. I began the research this morning and am still hashing out the details.

[Maxlock]

Oh yeah. Lived just outside of Chicago my whole life. Huge Bears fan. Might tease the Bears, we'll see.

On a side note, I also have a favorite team, I won't say who...but I have bet against them before. Never in the playoffs though, just the regular season. I've learned there's no loyalty when it comes to gambling. When it comes to capping you just have to keep an objective mind free of bias the best you can.

[jas19illini]

On a side note, I also have a favorite team, I won't say who...but I have bet against them before. Never in the playoffs though, just the regular season. I've learned there's no loyalty when it comes to gambling. When it comes to capping you just have to keep an objective mind free of bias the best you can.

Ha, funny thing is when i bet on the Bears (outside of this past week) they ended up not covering, but when i bet against them this season they covered. So theyve screwed me numerous times this season lol. On second thought, maybe i SHOULD bet on GB if i want my Bears to win.

[bigkrezca32]

JasIllini----I'm with you. Bears fan as well (and the Illini!) and have been burned by the bears the few times I bet on them this season......

I can't tell whether the massive public play on the packers is a good thing for the bears chances or a horrible thing....

[StackinGreen]

Bears won't win.

[19th Hole]

Good luck with that, I don't care if if 90% of the public is on Green Bay, I'll be on the Packers!!!

Looks like 80% is on the Pack now, and the spread is rising, as it's at -3.5 now...

65-70% of the public is also on the Steelers as that line is now at -3.5

Thanks for the info...
looks like GB over Chi then.

[Maxlock]

Thanks for the info... looks like GB over Chi then.

Riggs is pretty sold on GB...I'm not totally there yet. I'm very worried that this game will end in a 3 point GB victory and all GB -3.5 bettors will lose. That being said I'm still on the fence about this game, I need a little more time and more research.

[Maxlock]

MAXLOCK NFL HANDICAPPING: odds off sportsbook.com

1) PITT -3.5 (-110) OVER NYJ *Analysis to follow Tuesday

2) GB -3.5 @ Chicago +3.5 *Still researching, release pending, as early as Tues, as late as Sat

[riggs]

Riggs is pretty sold on GB...I'm not totally there yet. I'm very worried that this game will end in a 3 point GB victory and all GB -3.5 bettors will lose. That being said I'm still on the fence about this game, I need a little more time and more research.

That's why I got it right away at GB -3 (-110)

Nevertheless, GB wins this game by 7-10 points.

[jas19illini]

I LOVE seeing the masses on GB. Makes me feel a lot better about my Bears chances. So....Pitt -3.5 or worth buying the 0.5 pt to -3? Im also debating a tease between the two games. Im thinking the Bears and though i like Pitt, i know its not a good idea to tease across zero, so im thinking the Jets in a tease. Thoughts anyone?

[Maxlock]

I LOVE seeing the masses on GB. Makes me feel a lot better about my Bears chances. So....Pitt -3.5 or worth buying the 0.5 pt to -3? Im also debating a tease between the two games. Im thinking the Bears and though i like Pitt, i know its not a good idea to tease across zero, so im thinking the Jets in a tease. Thoughts anyone?

How much juice would you be paying if you bought Pitt down to -3?

I feel comfortable betting them at -3.5 but if the juice is not too high then by all means buy them down to -3.

As for teasers..I've never been a big fan of those.

[riggs]

I LOVE seeing the masses on GB. Makes me feel a lot better about my Bears chances. So....Pitt -3.5 or worth buying the 0.5 pt to -3? Im also debating a tease between the two games. Im thinking the Bears and though i like Pitt, i know its not a good idea to tease across zero, so im thinking the Jets in a tease. Thoughts anyone?

Do you love seeing the masses on Pitt too?

[HiTMaNN]

01/17/2011 21:24:55

Team #1: Pittsburgh Steelers
Line #1: Spread -3½ (-105)
Wager #1: $300

[StackinGreen]

That's why I got it right away at GB -3 (-110)

Nevertheless, GB wins this game by 7-10 points.

I agree.

Worried about the footing at all, Rigggs?

[StackinGreen]

Max,

Last consideration: Offensive line problems for Pittsburgh esp if you lay -3.5?

Just wonderin'

[riggs]

I agree.

Worried about the footing at all, Rigggs?

No the surface will be fine, Chicago's looking at single digit temperatures all week and by game time it'll be 16 degrees. If anything the field will be as hard as a rock, so no, I don't see a problem with footing. And as I've said before, a poor field favors the offense because they know where the play is going, and it takes the defense an extra second or two to adjust!

[riggs]

Max,

Last consideration: Offensive line problems for Pittsburgh esp if you lay -3.5?

Just wonderin'

One of my strongest arguments for the Jets!!! They are pathetic up front...

[Maxlock]

Max, Last consideration: Offensive line problems for Pittsburgh esp if you lay -3.5? Just wonderin'

I don't think the offensive line is totally at fault. Big Ben has always liked to hold on onto the ball and extend plays longer, that is why he takes more sacks. Year after year he holds onto the ball and makes plays, sometimes he will take take a few sacks each game. Big Ben was third in the league in YPA with a solid 8.2 and sixth in the league in passing yards per game. So to conclude this "offensive line issue" its not the lines fault but Big Ben's ability to keep plays alive and make the necessary throws downfield.

Sanchez on the other hand doesn't nearly take as many sacks because he is coached to get rid of the ball quick. This shows with his 6.5 YPA ranking him 26th among quarterbacks during the regular season, along with 25th in passing yards per game.

*This is not a write up on the game, just a shortened analysis on the question, "Will the Steelers offensive line be an issue?"

Steelers -3.5

[Lucky1g]

Revis and Cromartie will make it awfully difficult for Big Ben get the ball to his WRs, and he will be under alot of heat because the O line just isnt that good..I like JETS and under for this one. people continue to overlook this jets team that was built for this superbowl run. They went into pittsburgh late in the reg season and won(rushing for over 100 yds against that pitt defense in the win) and now theyve beatn peyton and brady back to back on the road...they have the ability and all the confidence in the world right now

[Maxlock]

Revis and Cromartie will make it awfully difficult for Big Ben get the ball to his WRs, and he will be under alot of heat because the O line just isnt that good..I like JETS and under for this one. people continue to overlook this jets team that was built for this superbowl run. They went into pittsburgh late in the reg season and won(rushing for over 100 yds against that pitt defense in the win) and now theyve beatn peyton and brady back to back on the road...they have the ability and all the confidence in the world right now

In that game you speak of I had the Jets winning in that one... different circumstances now
1) Troy Polamalu did not play. The Steeles are a complete different team with him. I have some data to back that up. I wrote about this a while back, so I'm gonna have to pull that out.
2) The Steelers, aside from the score outplayed the Jets earlier in the year. The Steelers outgained the Jets by 102 total yards and had 8 more fist downs.
3) The Steelers were 11 for 18 on third down conversations, very high %. Cromartie and Revis where were they?
4) Steelers in December are $$. Pitt is 23-9 ATS in DEC home games. Big Ben is 5-2 ATS as a favorite in the
playoffs.
5) In the first meeting betwen these two the Jets only scored 13 points on offense. One was a TD run which was on a 4th down conversion. The other 9 points were off a kick return and safety. Will a kick return and safety happen once again? Doubtful.

All signs point to at least a 7 point Pitt victory

[Lucky1g]

Jets are 10-5 ats as underdogs since 2009...trends are nice to look at but for every trend that favors the steelers theres a trend that favors the jets..look at all the overwhelming trends that favored the pats last week..the jets control the tempo and find ways to win ball games..revis is finally playing like he did all last season.He shut down reggie wayne and tom brady looked lost out there cuz his recievers were blanketed!..i dont see how mendenhall runs for more than 50-60 yds, meaning big bens gonna have to throw it often to move the chains..i just cant see an outcome in this one being anything other than a jets win??..max i know ur a very good capper, and i absolutley respect ur opinions, but i feel very strongly about the jets this week..cant wait till gameday

[jas19illini]

Do you love seeing the masses on Pitt too?

No, but the GB game is more heavily skewed.

[Maxlock]

I call this the Polamalu Effect

Here's an excerpt from a previous post of mine. This was back when Steelers faced off against the Panthers. I predicted a 30-3 Steelers victory in that game, even though Polamalu did not play. The final was 27-3.

"I dug deep into the games Pittsburgh played last year with and without safety Polamalu. Here's what I found: The 5 games Polamalu played they gave up on average 3.6 yards per carry against the run and only 12.8 points against per game in which Troy played. Then I looked at the 11 games Polamalu did not play due to injury. Without Polamalu the Steelers gave up 3.9 yards per carry, not a huge difference over the 3.6 BUT they gave up on average 22.8 points against without Polamalu. This is something to keep in mind if Polamalu is out for an extended period of time with the playoffs on the horizon."

Last week vs Baltimore: Ravens offense only posted 126 total yards on 12 first downs. Ray Rice averaged 2.7 yards per carry. Joe Flacco had a 4.2 YPA.

Baltimore scored 24 points but lets break down HOW they scrored:

1) First Ravens TD was a legit 10 play 68 yard drive resulting in a TD
2) 2nd Ravens TD was a strip sack, in which most players on both teams didn't even know that the ball was live, until a Ravens defender scooped up the ball and rumbled in from 13 yards out.
3) Third Ravens TD. Drive begins at the Steelers 16 yard line. The Ravens punch it in for a TD
4) FG. Drive begins at the Steelers 29 yard line, resulting in a 24 yd fg.

So lets break this down realistically, player for player:

1) Joe Flacco is a superior Qb to Sanchez
2) Ray Rice is a far superior back to the current LT and Shonn Greene.
3) Todd Heap may have a slight advantage over Dustin Keller.
4) Baltimore WRs are about equal to Jets WRs. Although there were numerous drops by the Ravens last week.

Let's not forget the Steelers are known big gamers. They have been here before and know how to eliminate mistakes in big games and force turnovers. Steelers D!!!

I repeat myself once again PITTSBURGH -3.5 (110)

[gilbert91016]

I was liking jets but u r changing my mind MAX!!

[JMF2479]

nice picks these last two weeks maxlock

[CROANT]

I'll bet Steelers, though the O line issues scare me.

[Pap45murF]

I don't know about that whole "the public are all over the Packers and the Steelers" thing. According to Pregame, the Packers (out of 26000 bets across multiple sportsbooks) have 71% of the public on the spread and 51% ML. Steelers are even lower with 21000 bets totaled and 58% spread and only 20% ML.

[HiTMaNN]

Solid write up Max if you open up a website next year put me first in line cause I have followed you this whole season!!!!

[Maxlock]

Solid write up Max if you open up a website next year put me first in line cause I have followed you this whole season!!!!

Riggs and I are looking to get something going for next season. We should have a site up and running in the summer time. The details still are being hashed out. I'm looking forward to another successful season next season. With three more games left let's finish this one off on a good note

HITMAN THANKS for following me from the get-go When I came on here at the start of week 10, I had a 30-15-5 ATS (67%) record from weeks 1-9, from which few believed me because it wasn't documented on a site...

Now from weeks 10-19 my record is a DOCUMENTED 39-21-2 ATS (65%) Which goes to show that I did not fabricate the "undocumented record" Total Season record: 69-36-7 ATS (66%)...pretty damn solid if you ask me.

[geeze]

I believed then and I believe now.

Been following since week 10, and have been increasing my retirement income ever since.

At 81, I'm probably the oldest poster on SBR.

Thank you, Maxlock.

[StackinGreen]

I believed then and I believe now.

Been following since week 10, and have been increasing my retirement income ever since.

At 81, I'm probably the oldest poster on SBR.

Thank you, Maxlock.

Lovin' that!