Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

**Gonad** · 12-27-10, 01:30 AM

Like the Saints pick, Max, let's get 'em...

**HiTMaNN** · 12-27-10, 02:19 AM

Can't bet against Matty Ice and the boys I am out of this one. I have a small bet on ATL of $300 at +105

**Palcsi** · 12-27-10, 07:01 AM

Will follow the New Orleans pick...wish BOL for all...

**PLAYA-PLAYA** · 12-27-10, 08:07 AM

IT'S A HOMEY BET FOR ME -----BUT OH WELL------"GO SAINTS"-----GOOD LUCK GUYS On ALL YOUR BETS

**StackinGreen** · 12-27-10, 10:29 AM

3-0 for me this week, Green Bay, StL and Baltimore all day baby

**CROANT** · 12-27-10, 11:27 AM

i'll roll with the NO pick tonight!

**Capybara** · 12-27-10, 11:49 AM

So you went 2-4 so far for Week 16, Max.... well I'm right there with ya, I went 5-6 with my plays. Rough weekend! That's prob the worst one you've had in this thread if you were 30-16. Well, 32-20 is still excellent.

I wish you, and myself, and all of us a strong finish!!

As for tonight, Man, that's a toughie, but I'm going to research as best I can.

**TheTreeOfLife** · 12-27-10, 11:52 AM

gl witht he plays max!
happy holidays!

**Maxlock** · 12-27-10, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

So you went 2-4 so far for Week 16, Max.... well I'm right there with ya, I went 5-6 with my plays. Rough weekend! That's prob the worst one you've had in this thread if you were 30-16. Well, 32-20 is still excellent. I wish you, and myself, and all of us a strong finish!! As for tonight, Man, that's a toughie, but I'm going to research as best I can.

Yea, it sucks. Very frustrating especailly when you think you got the games capped right. 2-4 this week going into Tonights matchup. I'm pretty confident with the Saints +2.5. So hopefully I can salvage this week at 3-4 if the Saints cover. To maximize your money I'd recommened either buy the half point to make it +3 or just take the Saints ML. Going into tonights game my documented record stands at 32-20 ATS

Losses Recapped:

Dallas -7...2 pick 6's + Kitna leaving
Seattle +6.5...With Hasselback they were moving the ball well, once he went out with an injury that was it, the offense stalled and the defense couldnt keep it close
NY Jets +1...out gained the Bears by 70 yards, outgained them in first downs 24-16, and possession time by 7 min, Jets 50% on third down, Bears 30%..YET the Bears win by 4
SD/Cincy Under 44...halftime scores combine to score only 16 points at halftime. Second half scores combine for 38.

**StackinGreen** · 12-27-10, 12:38 PM

books getting killed by the over

Max,

The books have been getting killed by the over this year. Yesterday must have been like 11-4 or better overs ...

The Jets blew that with the missed catch on 4th by Smith to start the 3rd, but why are they going for it? Weird. At the 40 yard line and THAT scared of Hester? Just kick it out of bounds. Weak.

Get'em back with the Saints tonight.

**jas19illini** · 12-27-10, 08:39 PM

The afternoon games crushed me this week. I had a perfect morning picks-wise, then everything hit the fan once the afternoon games were played. Bad week so far, hopefully Saints ML can dig me out a bit. Keep truckin' Max.

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Maxlock

Saints match up pretty well vs. Atlanta. New Orleans is ranked 2nd in passing yards allowed, while Atlanta is 22nd in that department. Matt Ryan is a spectacular 19-1 straight up at home but I fully expect this will be his 2nd lose @ home. New Orleans will be looking for some revenge this time around as Atlanta beat them earlier in the year in OT by a FG. Earlier on the year New Orleans wasn't clicking on all cylinders as they are now. Prior to last weeks lose to the Ravens, the Saints had scored at least 30 points in 5 consecutive games. Their defense is a liablity on the road in adverse weather, but this game will be played in a dome where the Saints speed on offense will be in full effect. The first time around Drew Brees passed for 365 yards with an amazing 79% completion rate, but had 2 INTS. I think a proven team like the Saints will be fully up for the challenge in this one. Think back to last years Superbowl when the Saints faced off against the Colts. New Orleans was a 5 point underdog as few thought that the Saints would cover let alone win straight up. Roddy White's trash talk should only add fuel to the Saint's motivation for this game. As I pointed out the Saints are exceptional against the pass ranking 2nd. They are 21st against the run allowing 117 yards on the ground per game. The first time around, Atlanta led a run heavy attack. Turner averaged 3.8 yards on the ground. In that game Turner and Snelling combined for 44 carries, while Matt Ryan passed for 228 yards with 2 TDs. In the first meeting between these two division rivals, the Saints didn't have the benefit of the explosive Reggie Bush at their disposal, but they will Monday night.

The Saints are still fighting to secure a postseason spot. Look for the Saints to come out firing and prove to Atlanta and everyone else in the NFC that they still are the defending world Champions. Currently the line is New Orleans +2.5, if you could get them at +3, then take it, otherwise bet the the ML as I fully expect the Saints to win this one straight up.

onto to tommorrows game

**hoku808pc** · 12-28-10, 12:14 AM

Damn Maxlock...

I told myself to never fade Matt Ryan at home... So I had to go against you today...

Learned my lesson and now know to never fade Maxlock at SBRforums... LOL

Good call today... Looking forward to tomorrow...

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by hoku808pc

Damn Maxlock...

I told myself to never fade Matt Ryan at home... So I had to go against you today...

Learned my lesson and now know to never fade Maxlock at SBRforums... LOL

Good call today... Looking forward to tomorrow...

I know what you're saying. It's hard to bet against Matt Ryan 19-1 at home. But when it came down to it this was the biggest game of the year for the Saints, they have proven themselves already by winning the Superbowl last year. It didn't surprise me by a good all around game the Saints played.

**gilbert91016** · 12-28-10, 12:29 AM

What do u like 2morrow max??

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by gilbert91016

What do u like 2morrow max??

Right now leaning Minnesota for the cover..I'm still looking at the game so ill let you know for sure tommorrow noon Eastern.

**chimp** · 12-28-10, 12:49 AM

nice call

**C-Low420** · 12-28-10, 01:00 AM

Good job..took the who dats too

**shopbar picks** · 12-28-10, 01:18 AM

thanx max, truly appreciated. You da man!

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 01:22 AM

Can't wait to see what that GB-Chicago spread will be. If Gb happens to be -3 or less I could definitely see GB as a "bet your farm" type bet.

Once the Pack get into the postseason they should do major damage, presumably as underdogs in all their postseason game since they will play all their games away being the 6th seed...but I'm getting ahead of myself

**HiTMaNN** · 12-28-10, 03:24 AM

Good call on the Saints Max you know I am always with you but I never bet against my team

**dwang0725** · 12-28-10, 10:12 AM

Way to salvage the week with the Saints. A handful of meaningful games out there this Sunday. Go get em.

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by dwang0725

Way to salvage the week with the Saints. A handful of meaningful games out there this Sunday. Go get em.

I'll have a play on tonights game. If I get this one ill finish 4-4 on the week.

Next week im definitely going to turn things around.

**CROANT** · 12-28-10, 10:23 AM

I was with you on N.O. - Looking forward to see why you might like Min tonight.

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 12:26 PM

Minnesota @ Philadelphia: PICK VIKINGS +14.5 (odds off sportsbook.com 12:00 noon)

From a pure numbers standpoint its hard to against the Eagles. But games are not won by talent and stats alone. They are won but who plays with the most focus and effort. Now I'm not saying the Vikings will win this straight up, but I am giving them the edge for the 14.5 cover. I know what you're thinking, the Eagles are still fighting for the 2nd seed in the NFC so they'll be playing hard in this one, but I really don'y see them paying 100% all four quarters. For starters how seriously will the take a 5-9 Vikings team with an interm head coach with rookie Job Webb under center? Now that Joe Webb has had 2 full weeks of practice with the starters I think he'll do alright. Running backs Adrian Peterson will be back for this game and I expect him to have a pretty solid game. His carries may be limited coming back from an injury, but capable back up Toby Gerhard averages a solid 4.0 yards per carry. On the outsides the Vikings still have Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice along with Shiancoe at the TE position. I fully expect the Vikings to score at least between 21-28 points in this one. The Eagles have a mediocre defense, along with the worst red zone defense in the league (Tds to FG ratio in the red zone) They'll be missing starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley who is one of the best run stoppers in the league, so expect the Vikings the pound the ball often. Phily will also be missing safety Nate Allen in this one. With Webb's strong arm I am sure they'll be taking several shots downfield to Sydney Rice.

On Phily's offensive side of the ball there really isn't much to discuss in depth. We all know what they're capable of.

Going back to my argument about teams that are "superior" but failed to win or cover the spread. I'll focus on just this weeks games:

1) Dallas -7 @ Arizona- Cards win outright
2) San Diego -9 @ Cincy- Bengals win outright
3) Washington +7 Jacksonville-Skins win outright

Dallas is clearly superior from a statistically standpoint to Arizona, but the focus and effort lacked in the first quarter and that ultimately led to their defeat. SD and Jax NEEDED to win their respective games to stay in the playoff hunt, but without focus and 100% effort they both got beaten by worse teams.

All in all I think the extra two days off will go against the Phily. Often times a good offense that's in rhythm could be disrupted with situations such as these. In the end in doesn't come down to talent. It goes down to which team is the most focused, disciplined and gives the best effort, something the Vikings will have more of tonight. About 80% of the money will be on the Eagles tonight, fade the public and bet the

Vikings +14.5

**dwang0725** · 12-28-10, 12:44 PM

BOL on the game Max. I'm only playing the total on this game (on a tease), not liking the high spread for a side.

**griffey_mojo** · 12-28-10, 12:50 PM

Max

Looks like it's Green Bay -6 1/2 with the total being 43 1/2

PS ... as of now my work shows Tampa Bay + 7 1/2 to shock The Saints this Sunday.

-Griff

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by griffey_mojo

Max

Looks like it's Green Bay -6 1/2 with the total being 43 1/2

PS ... as of now my work shows Tampa Bay + 7 1/2 to shock The Saints this Sunday.

-Griff

Which book has the GB line out? I thought they'd wait for the Phily game to finish.

**griffey_mojo** · 12-28-10, 02:05 PM

Max

From 2 sources ... the NY Newspapers have this line , but more importantly I use Killer Sports ... their database has the lines seemingly before everyone else and they are fairly accurate.

But you're right ... let's wait until after tonight's game and go with the major houses ( probably tomorrow )

**Gilly86** · 12-28-10, 02:08 PM

Not every week is going to be crazy profit, and even on a 'down' week you're going .500. That's incredible and I definately am not going anywhere!

**Capybara** · 12-28-10, 03:33 PM

Max, pretty good write up for tonight's game, but you fail to mention why the Vikings would have this focus/effort/discipline any more than the Eagles would. I mean if any team looks packed and ready for the offseason, it's the Vikes, no?

Also, this kid replacing Bradley may not be any dropoff at all for the Eagles. He had 16 tackles and forced a fumble last week. I doubt the Vikes run very successfully since the Eagles will devote their resources to taking it away and making Webb beat them.

I'm still undecided on the side but definitely like the over.

**Grits n' Gravy** · 12-28-10, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

Which book has the GB line out? I thought they'd wait for the Phily game to finish.

vegas books have gb-6 across the board.

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy

vegas books have gb-6 across the board.

A little higher than I would have liked but regardless GB is one of the best plays on week 17.

**4TH AND STUPID** · 12-28-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by Maxlock

A little higher than I would have liked nut regardless GB is one of the best plays on week 17.

curious as to why you love this play so much. although i actually like it myself, im wondering , are you thinking that jay cutler will be pulled from this game at some point?

i do love the fact that green bay has a lust for generating turnovers and jay cutler is due for a bad game.

**Maxlock** · 12-28-10, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID

curious as to why you love this play so much. although i actually like it myself, im wondering , are you thinking that jay cutler will be pulled from this game at some point?

i do love the fact that green bay has a lust for generating turnovers and jay cutler is due for a bad game.

Jay Cutler won't be pulled from this game unless its out of control. I'll have a complete write up on this game Wednesday.