Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[HiTMaNN]

Great call on Chi Max we got this in the bag I can't wait for Thur's pick my Book has Carolina at +14 and the Steelers at -14

[shopbar picks]

you da man max! thanx

[dwang0725]

Way to finish off the week on a high note.

[CROANT]

Bears clinch & cover - great night!

[TheTreeOfLife]

great call on the bears max!
looking forward to what you have in store for the future!

[martinmobley]

There we go buddy! Ended up being a fun and profitable week for me. Just curious, did you personally take the jets ML as well? If so, you shouldve made a little cash too. Anyways, thanks for all the insight. I've been around this site for a couple years, and you're my favorite NFL capper.

[Maxlock]

There we go buddy! Ended up being a fun and profitable week for me. Just curious, did you personally take the jets ML as well? If so, you shouldve made a little cash too. Anyways, thanks for all the insight. I've been around this site for a couple years, and you're my favorite NFL capper.

Thanks man I appreciate it.

As much as I liked the Jets, I banked them earlier in the week at +6, but I just couldn't pull the trigger on the ML. It defiantly had good value at +200. Nice job on your part though

[StackinGreen]

The spread was not an easy cover. You were smart not to play the money line. If they don't return opening kick for TD, Pitts wins by doubles, easy. let's be honest

[StackinGreen]

I do like your stuff, though. The NYG game clearly was an unlikely outcome.

[Maxlock]

TNF: Steelers-Panthers Analysis: PICK PITTSBURGH -14

I'll get into this more indepth , but on paper this game has blowout written all over it. A few injury updates for the Steelers include the return of TE Heath Miller to the lineup, while the status of Troy Polamulu is not known at this time. It has been reported that Polamalu was seen walking around with no noticeable limp so hopefully we will play. The absense of Troy Polamalu would worry me if the Steelers were playing a solid playoff contending team, but not to worry Carolina is easily one of the worst teams in the league with only two wins on the season. I dug deep into the games Pittsburgh played last year with and without safety Polamalu. Here's what I found: The 5 games Polamalu played they gave up on average 3.6 yards per carry against the run and only 12.8 points against per game in which Troy played. Then I looked at the 11 games Polamalu did not play due to injury. Without Polamalu the Steelers gave up 3.9 yards per carry, not a huge difference over the 3.6 BUT they gave up on average 22.8 points against without Polamalu. This is something to keep in mind if Polamalu is out for an extended period of time with the playoffs on the horizon. While it won't hurt them this week as they face a rookie QB and vastly underachieving Panthers team.

I could really see this being an ugly game for Carolina. The fact that they have rookie Jimmy Clausen at QB will certainly not help. Clausen has 2 TDs and 8 INTs on the season along with 8 fumbles. The Steelers will feast on this young QB playing in a cold weather game in Pittsburgh as the Steelers bring one of the most ferocious defenses led by linebackers James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison. To outline one of the biggest mismatches of this game, Pittsburgh is tied for 4th in the league with 40 sacks and 3rd in forces fumbles on the season. They should easily get to Clausen time and time again as Carolina gives up the 2nd most QB sacks and the 3rd most QB hits.

The only hope Carolina has is if they can establish some sort of run with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. I highly doubt that this will happen. Pittsburgh is ranked 1st in run defense and only gives up 3.0 yards per carry. This will set up Clausen in third and long situations which will play into the hands of Pittsburgh defense where the excel in rushing the passer and are great in not allowing 3rd down conversions. Pittsburgh ranks in at 3rd in the league at 35% third down conversions allowed.

For Pittsburgh, on the offensive side of the ball their weakness is the offensive line. For this matchup I don't see it being a liability as Carolina is only 19th in the league in sacks. Carolina is 10th worst in the league in terms of rush yards allowed per game. RB Rashard Mendenhall will have a solid game which will allow Big Ben to have play action success to Mike Wallace, Heath Miller and Hines Ward.

Pittsburgh coming off its 4th defeat of the season at the hands of the Jets. Here's how the Steelers have responded following their three previous defeats:
Week 4 lost to Baltimore (week 5 was a bye..)
Week 6 they beat Cleveland 28-10
Week 8 lost to New Orleans
Week 9 they beat Cincinnati 27-21 (most of Cincinnati points were in the 4th quarter in desperation mode)
Week 10 lost to new England
Week 11 they beat Oakland 35-3
Week 15 lose to NYJ
Week 16 ???

The bottom line is, unless Pittsburgh epically fails to emotionally show up for this game I just don't see how they wont beat them by over 20 points. I can't imagine Carolina scoring more than 10 points in this game. A shutout would not surprise me at all. This is a home nationally televised game for Pitt in which they are still fighting to keep the division lead and the 2nd seed in the AFC. I'm figuring Carolina will take a 30-3. Take Pittsburgh -14 (if you're book has 14.5 buy it down to 14 just to be safe)

[HiTMaNN]

Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread -14 (-130)
$300

Had to buy 1 full point my book had it at -15

[jas19illini]

Absolutely. Looking back at that game it was bad capping on my part. I've recognized how I capped it wrong and will learn from that mistake moving forward: Although Arizona had a very good shot at the backdoor cover +3 towards the end of the game, here's is why they ultimately failed.

-It was third stringer John Skeleton's first start on the road.
-Two bad teams facing off against each other could've gone either way, it was really a coin flip the more you look at it.
-For some reason I failed to put enough stock into the following stat, which led to Arizonas demise:
>Here is Carolinas last six games running the all with the combination of Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson.
Last week vs Arizona: 37 rushes for 158
week 14: 27 for 203
week 13: 24 for 111
week 12: 26 for 153
week 11: 22 for 120
week 10: 23 for 100

Carolina's running game cruised threw Arizonas 30th rank run defense. Arizona on average gives up 146 yards on the ground. So with the running game clicking rookie Jimmy Clausen didn't have to take an unnessary risks as he completed 13 of 19 passes. Arizona thrives off of turnovers but the opportunities were limited because they couldn't stop the running game.

That being said, I'll move on having learned from this game. Sorry guys.

Very good recap. A lot to be learned from mistakes. But you rebounded and finished 4-4, nice play on my bears btw.

[StackinGreen]

Anyone have an opinion SF@StL or NYG@GB?

My pick of the week is Baltimore.

[Maxlock]

Anyone have an opinion SF@StL or NYG@GB? My pick of the week is Baltimore.

I'm still looking into the Sunday games..GB largely depends on the status of Rodgers.

[ssk13809]

64%? Each week you rate is dropping. I'm done for the season at 70%. Good luck finishing yours. I think you'll be around 60% at the end. Nothing special in the long-run. Rates like 60% in 1 season are bound to return to 50% the next season. It's only the 65+% or 70+% rates that are special.

[Maxlock]

64%? Each week you ra
te is dropping. I'm done for the season at 70%. Good luck finishing yours. I think you'll be around 60% at the end. Nothing special in the long-run. Rates like 60% in 1 season are bound to return to 50% the next season. It's only the 65+% or 70+% rates that are special.

Bud your rate is 70 because you only did 13 games total.

[CROANT]

Max - looks like I've found a new thread to follow - lead us to the promised land!

[Maxlock]

Max - looks like I've found a new thread to follow - lead us to the promised land!

I will. In case you missed it, I have a indepth analysis written on Thursday's game which is in my thread. If you're book has Pittsburgh at 14.5 buy it down to 14 and bank them.

[BetWeather]

Quick question...

Why would you mention a record that you can provide no documentation for? Whats the purpose? Why would you feel the need to convince anyone of your success?

Yeah me too! I'm 92% ATS.

[Maxlock]

Yeah me too! I'm 92% ATS.

Can you read? I'm 64% documented since joining SBR WEEK 10: RECORD STANDS AT 29-16-2. ALL GAMES PLAYED WILL BE FOUND IN THIS THREAD.

[TheTreeOfLife]

good stuff as always maxlock
like the writeups as they are especially helpful for me (still learning)
bol and happy holidays!

[Maxlock]

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: (odds of Sportsbook.com as of 12:00 pm 12/22)

1)Pittsburgh -14.5 over Carolina-analysis written
-buy the half point to make Pittsburgh -14

SUNDAY EARLY RELEASE #1

2) Baltimore -3.5 over Cleveland
-buy the half point to make Baltimore -3
-Bank it now before the line goes up

*Rarely do I recommend buying the half points. In these situations I would. But if your book does not allow this, I'd still take both these games with confidence.

[martinmobley]

The spread was not an easy cover. You were smart not to play the money line. If they don't return opening kick for TD, Pitts wins by doubles, easy. let's be honest

Well thank you for your in depth ananlysis... in my humble opinion is was a great bet because I won double my money. I also had a bet on Jets with 6 points so it was a fantastic game for me regardless of how you thought it should've turned out.

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

"MAX"----YOU ARE OUR HORSE-----"MERRY CHRISTMAS"-----THANKS FOR WHAT YOU DO--------IGNORE THE "NAESAYERS"----"SSK" IS OFF HIS "MEDS"------IF HE PICKS 70%-----I'M a "CHINESE FIGHTER PILOT"

[HiTMaNN]

Team #1: Baltimore Ravens
Line #1: Spread -3 (bought a full point my line was at 4)
Wager #1: $400

[HiTMaNN]

64%? Each week you rate is dropping. I'm done for the season at 70%. Good luck finishing yours. I think you'll be around 60% at the end. Nothing special in the long-run. Rates like 60% in 1 season are bound to return to 50% the next season. It's only the 65+% or 70+% rates that are special.

Yeah me too! I'm 92% ATS.

He has actually documented so if your going to just hate leave the winners in this thread.

Keep it Max you the man!!!

Can you read? I'm 64% documented since joining SBR WEEK 10: RECORD STANDS AT 29-16-2. ALL GAMES PLAYED WILL BE FOUND IN THIS THREAD.

[martinmobley]

Any off the record thoughts on Boise St / Utah?

[Maxlock]

Any off the record thoughts on Boise St / Utah?

I really don't know college that well, if I were to bet I'd take Boise minus the points. Utah really tailed off towards the end of the season getting beaten bad by teams not as good as Boise. GL let me know who you choose.

[Grits n' Gravy]

great writeup on pittsburgh. the game looks like it could be real ugly. very similar to the sd/sf game. good luck.

[StackinGreen]

What'd that cost?

Team #1: Baltimore Ravens
Line #1: Spread -3 (bought a full point my line was at 4)
Wager #1: $400

How much did that cost you? You should always put associated MLs with the spreads, otherwise, and you could already argue it is, you're aren't being honest about what's going on with records ATS, ROI, etc.

I like Baltimore too, I'm on them -3 (-130)

Best of luck.

[martinmobley]

I already had taken Boise St. Utah's QB is out. They've played horribly against decent teams like TCU and even Notre Dame. Their backup QB is an erratic passer that throws INTs. We all know what kind of offensive game Boise St is capable of. Go Boise state!

[Maxlock]

How much did that cost you? You should always put associated MLs with the spreads, otherwise, and you could already argue it is, you're aren't being honest about what's going on with records ATS, ROI, etc.

I like Baltimore too, I'm on them -3 (-130)

Best of luck.

For record keeping purposes I use the original spread.

[Maxlock]

Any off the record thoughts on Boise St / Utah?

I really don't know college that well, if I were to bet I'd take Boise minus the points. Utah really tailed off towards the end of the season getting beaten bad by teams not as good as Boise. GL let me know who you choose.

[Maxlock]

I already had taken Boise St. Utah's QB is out. They've played horribly against decent teams like TCU and even Notre Dame. Their backup QB is an erratic passer that throws INTs. We all know what kind of offensive game Boise St is capable of. Go Boise state!

Good call!

[Illusion]

Alright boys, stop the middle school drama and stay on topic.