Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[brahmabull117]

Glad to see you on my boys Max. I think the Pack can keep this game close. I have a funny feeling Rodgers is going to play in this one, or is McCarthy just trying to get Pats coach to scheme for both Qb's after his "The door is open for Rodgers to play in this game" quote yesterday.

the patriots defense has given up 10 combined points in the last 2 games against 2 teams with a combined 18-6 record. Matt flynn had an awful game against the LIONS, You really think he is gonna do anything against a dominant Patriots defense that is forcing tons of turnovers?

furthermore, packers have no running game at all, you really count on flynn to be succesful against the pats throwing the ball 40 times into that secondary that leads the league in interceptions this year??? The packers will be VERY lucky to get more than 3-7 points in this game

I mean jesus christ guys, haven't we learned our lesson when it comes to backup QBs after the Chargers beat the Chiefs by 34 points last week??

and not to mention on the other side of the ball. The patriots have the best offensive line in the league, the packers are banged up in terms of their pass rush. Brady is gonna have all day to throw the ball and will likely slice and dice through your secondary


Patriots - 30
Packers - 7

[Maxlock]

the patriots defense has given up 10 combined points in the last 2 games against 2 teams with a combined 18-6 record. Matt flynn had an awful game against the LIONS, You really think he is gonna do anything against a dominant Patriots defense that is forcing tons of turnovers? furthermore, packers have no running game at all, you really count on flynn to be succesful against the pats throwing the ball 40 times into that secondary that leads the league in interceptions this year??? The packers will be VERY lucky to get more than 3-7 points in this game I mean jesus christ guys, haven't we learned our lesson when it comes to backup QBs after the Chargers beat the Chiefs by 34 points last week?? and not to mention on the other side of the ball. The patriots have the best offensive line in the league, the packers are banged up in terms of their pass rush. Brady is gonna have all day to throw the ball and will likely slice and dice through your secondary Patriots - 30 Packers - 7

You bring up some good points. But you can't predict this outcome solely on stats and past play. There are quite a few variables that favor the Pack in this one, which I really don't want to go into a full write up to discuss. I'm sticking with Green Bay in this one +14 with Matt Flynn.

New England 24
Green Bay 20

[brahmabull117]

You bring up some good points. But you can't predict this outcome solely on stats and past play. There are quite a few variables that favor the Pack in this one, which I really don't want to go into a full write up to discuss. I'm sticking with Green Bay in this one +14 with Matt Flynn.

New England 24
Green Bay 20

did you not learn your lesson when the Chargers beat the Chiefs 34-0 when brodie croyle started?? or when the texans beat the titans 20-0 with Rusty Smith starting??


you're taking a guy who hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his career to play a close game on the road against a defense that is just playing lights out. Not to mention the packers offensive line is just god awful right now, so expect flynn to throw the ball 50 times, get sacked 3-4 times and throw about 4 INTs

[Maxlock]

did you not learn your lesson when the Chargers beat the Chiefs 34-0 when brodie croyle started?? or when the texans beat the titans 20-0 with Rusty Smith starting??


you're taking a guy who hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his career to play a close game on the road against a defense that is just playing lights out. Not to mention the packers offensive line is just god awful right now, so expect flynn to throw the ball 50 times, get sacked 3-4 times and throw about 4 INTs

Good teams rise up and give 110% in the absence of their Qb, the Chiefs are mediocre and the Titans just bad. So let's wait to see how this plays out Sunday night. Time will tell...

[Maxlock]

[QUOTE=brahmabull117;7979640]did you not learn your lesson when the Chargers beat the Chiefs 34-0 when brodie croyle started??

Apparently not since I had San Diego as one of my picks last week.

[griffey_mojo]

Max

I've been doing this for 35 years and overall you're very sharp.

I love GB tomorrow night.

Please take a look at Buffalo ... I expect them to win straight up at Miami.

Keep up the great work !!!

-Griff

[brahmabull117]

the Chiefs are mediocre

chiefs record - 8-5
green bay record - 8-5


they are so bad that they have identical record as GB



not to mention chiefs were a much better play last week than GB is. The chiefs have 2 fantastic running backs and a great offensive line. Green bay has a horrible offensive line with ZERO running game whatsoever. You think Flynn will be succesful throwing the ball 50 times into that Bill Belicheck defense???


my mind is blown that anybody here is taking GB. I would take the Patriots if the line was 20. At 13 or 14, this is like christmas coming early

[Maxlock]

Max

I've been doing this for 35 years and overall you're very sharp.

I love GB tomorrow night.

Please take a look at Buffalo ... I expect them to win straight up at Miami.

Keep up the great work !!!

-Griff

Thank you Griff,
As for the Buffalo-Miami game I can't give you too much advice on it since I'm on the road away from my computer. The Bills usually play the Phins tough even on the road. Lately, the Bills have been playing some good ball overall. This being a divisional game coupled with the horrendous play of Chad Henne. One thing to consider if you're taking the Bills is that WR Lee Evans is out with an injury.

With my limited resources at hand, I'm sorry I can't give you better insight. All in all this is one game that I don't have a play on but I'd lean with the Bills +5.5, you may consider buying the half point. BOL in whatever you choose.

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL week 15 Slate: odds of sportsbook.com as of 10:00 am unless otherwise noted: Thursday:
1) San Diego -8.5 over San Fran-Win (documented in thread) Sunday:
2) NY Jets +6 over Pittsburgh
3) Cleveland +1.5 over Cincinatti
4) NY Giants -3 over Philadelphia
5) Arizona +3 over Carolina (if you have this line at +2.5 buy the .5 to make it 3)
6) St. Louis +1 over Kansas City
7) *I do have a play on SNF- Packers-Patriots. (Don't assume its the Pats)

*7* Green Bay +14 over New England (sportsbook.com has just released this spread 1:30 pm eastern) This will close of my Sunday slate

One last time here is the week 15 slate so you dont have to search for it. If you're placing some of these bets Sunday, you'll probably find that some of the lines have shifted, that is why I recommended some early bets..Nontheless, GL to my fellow backers Sunday.

I will update my ATS record once these games are finished.

[dugdogg]

there will be a fix in for the pats game no doubt...this reminds me of giants/cowboys game in NY where giants were 14 pt faves..no one on the planet could think of why the 1-7 or whatever cowboys could come close on the road to the 6-2 giants in NY...

always go against the grain when the public is so one sided...everyone think pats but just remember there's always the backdoor cover...happened last week with titans/colts....GB will cover here

[brahmabull117]

there will be a fix in for the pats game no doubt...this reminds me of giants/cowboys game in NY where giants were 14 pt faves..no one on the planet could think of why the 1-7 or whatever cowboys could come close on the road to the 6-2 giants in NY...

always go against the grain when the public is so one sided...everyone think pats but just remember there's always the backdoor cover...happened last week with titans/colts....GB will cover here

everybody was on the public for the patriots game against the jets and the bears as well. Was there a backdoor cover there too??



you people gotta stop looking at vegas and start looking at the players on the field. No team is more 1 dimensional than the packers (outside of maybe the colts). With how awful that offensive line is, Aaron rodgers is that whole offense. With him gone, you insert some 2nd stringer who has never had an ounce of success in the NFL, against a very confident and opportunistic patriots defense and you have a big time beat down

Patriots by at least 3 scores

[Maxlock]

Brahmabull: It's clear you're siding with the Pats, and I respect that. I sided with the Pats the past two weeks when they trounced the Jets and Bears. My analysis points to the Packers covering +14, therefore ill wager you 100 sbr points if you wish. I'll take Green bay +14. Confirm or reject my offer.(Loser will deposit 100 points to the winner after the game is done, but no later than Tuesday 12/21/10)

[PocketChange]

Colt Mccoy will start this game. You're in good hands, I do my research and analysis thoroughly.

Maxlock nice picks man, congrats. Thought I'd chime in on this one though. My money is on the Bengals to crush the Browns here. Yeah, "Bengals" "crush" same sentence, really? I know. But the Bengals won't be content to get swept by a divisional opponent with a rookie QB. Bengals have had a decent pass defense, and can focus on Hillis. A win here won't really affect their draft position either at 2-11, securing a top 3-4 pick, but it does the Browns at 5-8.

What are your thoughts? Best of luck with all your picks except this one

[brahmabull117]

Brahmabull: It's clear you're siding with the Pats, and I respect that. I sided with the Pats the past two weeks when they trounced the Jets and Bears. My analysis points to the Packers covering +14, therefore ill wager you 100 sbr points if you wish. I'll take Green bay +14. Confirm or reject my offer.(Loser will deposit 100 points to the winner after the game is done, but no later than Tuesday 12/21/10)

what analysis??

give me a real reason why the packers can cover this

[Maxlock]

what analysis??

give me a real reason why the packers can cover this

I've analyzed 5 or so games this week. I'm responding to this message via cell phone, therefore I'm unable to provide an adequate analytical reaponse. I have a documented 25-12-2 ATS record since I joined sbr week 10. Take my bet or leave it that's your decision. So is our wager of 100 sbr points on or no?

[DIRTYDIRTY]

will be fadin ur giants pick BOL thhough mike dont like being underdog and yes he checks the lines

[HiTMaNN]

I am with you even on the green bay pick


Team #1: Green Bay Packers
Line #1: Spread +14 (-105)
Wager #1: $200

Team #2: St. Louis Rams
Line #2: Spread -3 (EVEN)
Wager #2: $200

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

"BRAMABULL"-----PUT YOUR MONEY OR POINTS WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS--------Bet Matlock or GO WORRY ANOTHER THREAD------

[JMF2479]

I hate going the other way but it's Brady and NE. Any other team I'll follow

[martinmobley]

Good luck today Max... threw you some love on the thread regarding the position with SBR.

[martinmobley]

Good luck everyone!!! Let's make some money today!!

[The J-Dizzle]

What about the UNDER in the Pats-Packs game? The under is 7-0 when Packers is playing on the road and with Rodgers out I can't see Green Bay scoring alot.. Green Bay also leads the league in defense, allowing only 14.5 points/game.

What do you think?

[martinmobley]

ughhhhh... seriously

[HiTMaNN]

Woooow Vegas cleaned house on me

1) San Diego -8.5 over San Fran- Win
2) NY Jets +6 over Pittsburgh
3) Cleveland +1.5 over Cincinatti Loss
4) NY Giants -3 over Philadelphia Loss
5) Arizona +3 over Carolina Loss
6) St. Louis +1 over Kansas City Loss
7) Green Bay +14 over New England

[PocketChange]

Woooow Vegas cleaned house on me

1) San Diego -8.5 over San Fran- Win
2) NY Jets +6 over Pittsburgh
3) Cleveland +1.5 over Cincinatti Loss
4) NY Giants -3 over Philadelphia Loss
5) Arizona +3 over Carolina Loss
6) St. Louis +1 over Kansas City Loss
7) Green Bay +14 over New England

Didn't notice he had the Cardinals also. Careful with blindly tailing.

[Maxlock]

Woooow Vegas cleaned house on me

1) San Diego -8.5 over San Fran- Win
2) NY Jets +6 over Pittsburgh
3) Cleveland +1.5 over Cincinatti Loss
4) NY Giants -3 over Philadelphia Loss
5) Arizona +3 over Carolina Loss
6) St. Louis +1 over Kansas City Loss
7) Green Bay +14 over New England

I'm at lose for words. I think we can still salvage today with the Jets and Packers, plus MNF.

[Maxlock]

ughhhhh... seriously

The Giants collapse was a dagger in the heart. We'll still salvage with the Jets, Packers, and MNF.

[Pap45murF]

Yikes. You're taking a beating today. Not that the picks were wrong or anything, it's just that teams aren't playing like they're supposed to. Just one of those weekends... one of those weekends where Vick decides he's going to score 3 TD's in the last 8 minutes. I'm curious to see how the Pats game will pan out. Any +14 underdog is usually set up to show up... but then it IS the pats at home.

GL.

[Jcows]

sry brother it seems like everytime i tail somebody, they have a brutal day.. i should make this an experiment to see how many bank accounts i can ruin

[HiTMaNN]

It is all right Max I believe in you still everyone has a bad week and the teams we tailed collapsed esp the Giants :|

I took ATL and The Over hopefully I hit that to break even today but that is saying the Jets hit there spread so far so good

[The J-Dizzle]

Eagles collapsed in the first half, Giants in the second half. I had Eagles+9 in a teaser and also Eagles ML.

Your Jets+6 looks pretty good atm, why do you like Packers Maxlock?

[low Q]

The Giants collapse was a dagger in the heart. We'll still salvage with the Jets, Packers, and MNF.

OUCH! painful day.... looks like the Jets will come through though.... who you leaning towards on MNF?

[Maxlock]

OUCH! painful day.... looks like the Jets will come through though.... who you leaning towards on MNF?

As of right now I'm leaning the over for tommorrows game, but that's not a final decision.

Now if the packers cover it won't be that bad of a week going into tommorrow.

[cappinthepigs]

Hopefully you learned some things this week.

[TMoney33]

Don't worry Max, everyone I watch had a bad day today. Just one of those weeks. Looking forward to your play for MNF.