Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[big0mar]

No such thing as a letdown game guys. Statistically proven to not exist. Game will be decided by matchups.

[Maxlock]

No such thing as a letdown game guys. Statistically proven to not exist. Game will be decided by matchups.

Games are not decided by match ups alone. There are many psychological aspects to take into account. Such as: home field advantage, crowd support, veteran experience over rookie experience, short week aspect, big game experiences, etc. Not to mention your claim of "No such thing as a letdown game...statistically proven to not exist." Where is your backing to such a claim? Omar, all you are is a parasite on this site. Please don't comment on this thread anymore.

[big0mar]

Games are not proven by match ups alone. There are many psychological aspects to take into account. Such as: home field advantage, crowd support, veteran experience over rookie experience, short week aspect, big game experiences, etc. Not to mention your claim of "No such thing as a letdown game...statistically proven to not exist." Where is your backing to such a claim? Omar, all you are is a parasite on this site. Please don't comment on this thread anymore.

Pro Football Prospectus 2007.

http://www.amazon.com/Pro-Football-Prospectus-2007-Essential/dp/0452288479

Not sure of the exact page however.

I think they used games against teams with a sub-.500 record, in between two games against opponents with records above .500.

Their statistical analysis concluded that in fact teams had a higher winning record in 'trap' games as opposed to all other games.

[Maxlock]

Lions are the play here - bottom line.

Right...

[Maxlock]

New England-Detroit Analysis You make some very good points there. I have the same sort of score prediction with New England beating Detroit 34-17. The last few weeks the Patriots have had an excellent successful combination of run/pass plays. RB Ben Jarvis Green has averaged at least 4.5 cards a carry in 3 out of the last 4 games. Detroit ranks 26th in rush yards allowed while giving up 130 yards on the ground. Offensively rookie Jahvid Best has been a disappointment this year while battling turf toe throughout the year. Detroit averages 80 yards on the ground which ranks 31st in the league. Detroit may find some success through the air as the Patriots give up 289 yards via air and are ranked 31st. I believe that number is really scewed as the Patriots have played against many good/great QBs: Carson Palmer week 1, Mark Sanchez week 2, Chad Henne raked up most of 305 yards in garbage time, week 4, Joe Flacco week 6, Philip Rivers week 7, Brett Favre week 8, Ben Roethlisberger week 10, Peyton Manning week 11. The Patriots arguable have the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. Detroit has an underrated defensive line that has had some success putting pressure on the opposing QB. Not to worry, Tom Brady gets rid of the ball very quick to his agile receivers with many of the yards being after the catch. Detroit has lost the last 6 Thanksgiving games and they just aren't there yet to compete with the likes of New England. Coach Belichick has vowed that the Patriots will not take the Lions lightly. Patriots 34 Lions 17. The Patriots on a big stage with Tom Brady are the pick here at -6.5. New York Jets-Cincinnati Analysis Before delving into this game. I believe this game has the potential to turn very ugly with Cincy taking a beating. With 7 losses on the season, Cincinnati essentially knows that they're season is virtually over. Although I may see them giving it one last gasped in front of a national audience on Thanksgiving Thursday. Last week I wrote up that I liked how the Jets matched up against the Texans. Well for the most part my assessment was correct as Andre Johnson was virtually eliminated from the game and Matt Shaub was extremely limited through 3 quarters. The The jets opened up a 16 point fourth quarter lead only to blow the lead, but eventually win. Its been reported that Darrelle Revis will cover Terrell Owens in this game. I expect Revis to shut down T.O as he did with Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson the past two weeks. While T.O will be shut down, Antonio Cromartie will put the clamps on Ocho Cinco. The Jets rank 2nd against the run. Unlike last week where they faced a good runner and pass catcher in Arian Foster, the same can not be said for the Bengals running game. Jets 31 Bengals 16 NY Jets -9 are the play here.

to Maxlock NFL Handicapping 39-21-6 on the season following Patriots cover.

[Maxlock]

Thursday night/Friday morning I'll have the remainder week 12 picks up with an in depth analysis. Right now I have 4/5 Sunday games.

[herts9]

Nice work bro...glad we were on the same side

[Maxlock]

Nice work bro...glad we were on the same side

2-0 Thanksgiving Thursday. Sunday picks to come Friday.

[Maxlock]

Thanksgiving Thursday Picks: 2-0; Season Record 40-21-6; Documented SBR Record since joining week 10: 10-6-1
Won:
New England -7 over Detroit
NY Jets -9 over Cincinnati

Continuing week 12 picks for Sunday: Odds off of Sportsbook.com as of 2:00 am Friday 11/26/10
(All games are weighted equally)

1) Green Bay +1.5 over Atlanta 1:00
2) Carolina Panthers +10 over Cleveland 1:00
3) Minnesota Vikings +1 over Washington 1:00
4) Kansas City -2 over Seattle 4:05
5) San Diego +3 over Indianapolis 8:20

-Right now I don't have a play on Monday's game, but that may change.
-An in depth analysis for each game will follow Friday afternoon.

[Maxlock]

Carolina-Cleveland Analysis:

Before delving into the matchup and logistics of this game, I'd like to say that no 3-7 team should be a 10 point favroite over another NFL team in today's age of parity. Granted Cleveland has played almost every opponent tough even beating New Orleans and New England. With that said, they still are not a team that overwhelms you. Cleveland will have Jack Delhomme starting at quarterback instead of rookie Colt Mccoy who is recovering from a high ankle ankle. Ironically, the rookie has played quite well in his start for the Browns. From a matchup standpoint, Mccoy would pose a bigger threat for the Panthers with his mobility and strong arm, neither of which Delhomme has. Delhomme has not seen action in several games and will be rusty especially in the early going of this game. The majority of this matchup will be decided on how effective Peyton Hillis will run the ball. Carolina will stuff the box with a safety in an attempt to stop Hillis and have Delhomme try to beat them with sub standard receiving. On an injury note, LB Scott Fujita and CB Eric Wright will probably not play. Capable Rookie Joe Haden will take the place of CB Wright and will be covering Panther WR Steve Smith. I give the edge to the vet Smith here to make a few big plays down the field. As of right now I could not get a definitive report on whether Josh Cribbs will play this game. He was out last game with a toe injury, but my guess is he will play this Sunday.

On the flip side, Carolina will have rookie Jimmy Clausen taking the snaps. Once again I expect Cleveland to also play the safety up in an attempt to stop Carolina's running game featuring Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson, who has done surprisingly well. Carolina heads into this game with a 1-9 record and have been a mess this year with three different starting quarterbacks throughout the year and having their 1-2 running tandem of Stewart and Williams missing a lot of time this year. Not to worry, Mike Goodson has done a tremendous job running the ball in his starts this year. In his last two starts Goodson has reached at least 100 rushing yards in both games with 4.3 and 5.5 average respectively.

This should be a tight, low scoring affair, with the defense playing a big part in this game. As I mentioned before Cleveland is just not there yet to be giving up 10 points to an NFL opponent nor do they have the personnel to outmatch Carolina in such a capacity. Take Carolina +10

*Previously, I wrote that I will write an in depth analysis for each game that I picked for this week. That will not be provided for this week, although all the games that I have listed for week 10 are very good bets in my eyes. Each game was analyzed thoroughly with an unbiased approach. I went 2-0 Thanksgiving Thursday bumping my season ATS record to 40-21-6 and 10-6-1 since joining this forum at the start of week 10. To recap here are the week 12 plays that I had listed:


1) New England -7 over Detroit:Won
2) NY Jets -9 over Cincy:Won
3) Green Bay +1.5 over Atlanta 1:00
4) Carolina Panthers +10 over Cleveland 1:00
5) Minnesota Vikings +1 over Washington 1:00
6) Kansas City -2 over Seattle 4:05
7) San Diego +3 over Indianapolis 8:20

[JMF2479]

Lions are the play here - bottom line.

I'm so happy you posted this... You're a moron. Way to pick a team that hasn't won a thanksgiving game for awhile. I can see you're a winner.

[Maxlock]

Recapping week 12: 6-1 climbing my season record to 46-22-6 ATS and 14-7-1 since joining this forum week 10.

Right now I'm still contemplating my play for Monday. I'm leaning on a over/under play as I can't get an angle on a team side. Stay tuned, if ill have a play for MNF I'll post it here Monday noon.

[Maxlock]

MNF: San Francisco @ Arizona
Play: Under 41.5 odds off sportsbook.com as of 11:00 am eastern
If you're playing the under get in now before it may drop, as 41.5 is a pivotal number.

MAXLock NFL Handicapping

[low Q]

under 41.5 - that's a low number..... any thoughts?

[brahmabull117]

under 41.5 - that's a low number..... any thoughts?

I don't think it's a low number at all for 2 teams that average a combined 34.4 points a game

[Maxlock]

under 41.5 - that's a low number..... any thoughts?

Well as I mentioned 41.5 points is pivitol. If it were 40.5 or lower I wouldn't bet it. At 41 I still would. I hardly ever play over/ under, off the top of my head I bet only three this year with all three being unders and subsequent winners. When betting the over/under you have to come up with several possible final scores and see if they fall within the range of the over/ under. The possible outcomes I came up for this game were at: 20-13, 20-17, 21-17, 24-13, 24-16 giving the edge to the Niners, although I would not advise betting either San Fran or Arizona. This is a divisional game. These two teams play each other close and tough no matter the skill level on opposite sides. San Fran will pound the ball early and often with Frank Gore. I expect Gore to have some success against a Cards team ranked 29th in rush defense. Ironically, last week Tampa Bay was in a simliair position ranking towards the bottom of the league in rush defense going up against Gore and the Niners, but they held their own giving up on 1.9 yards a carry. Maybe it had something to do with Tackle Joe Stanley being out or the Bucs simply outplayed and out schemed the Niners offensive line. Not to mention, I've watched quite a few Niners games this year and have found their play calling to be very vanilla and easy to guess whether it'll be a run or a pass. Arizona safety Adrian Wilson will crowd the line in an attempt to minimize Gore's gain.

On the flip side Arizona has been a wreck this entire season on both sides of the ball. The positive thing is that they excel in creating turnovers which has helped them win a few games this year. Offensively they average 18.8 points a game while being 31st in offensive yardage. It'll be tough to run against a stout Niners rush defense so it'll be up to Derek Anderson to make some plays downfield, although his accuracy is very limited. Historically these two teams play each other tough, even with Kurt Warner quarterbacking last years version of the Cardinals, the Niners prevailed both times by the score of 20-16 and 24-9.

Expect another low scoring affair. Under 41.5 is the play

[HOOKEMcnh]

Good call! 49'ers field goal kicker helped out a little.

[Maxlock]

Good call! 49'ers field goal kicker helped out a little.

Glad I can point you in the right direction.

[Maxlock]

Folks, Maxlock closing the NFL week 12 with a 7-1 ATS record improving to 15-7-1 since joining this forum three weeks ago (all documented on my thread) and 47-22-6 ATS on the season. It's crazy, there are sports handicapping services that require you to pay and you're probably lucky to get 55% winners on the season, while here I am providing 68% winners on the season with the volume of games that I release. A blood bath for the books.

I have a play on Thursday's action between Houston and Phily that I'll release Tuesday night.

[TMoney33]

Hi Max,

I just found your thread. Very nice work so far this year. I'm looking forward to reading your insights on the Eagles game this week.

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL handicapping back at it again for the first week 13 game featuring the Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles. I have Thursday's game that I wanted to release now and a Sunday game that I wanted to jump on before the line may jump. I'll have the rest of my Sunday plays up Friday.

Thursday: Houston +8.5 over Philadelphia
Sunday: St. Louis -3 over Arizona...if you're taking St. Louis, bet it now while it's still at -3

Eagles-Texans Analysis

At first glance it seems as though the Texans will have a huge problem containing Mike Vick and the high powered Eagles offense. Not so fast, although the Eagles will still put up points on the board I expect the Texans to limit their success somewhat. DE Mario Williams leads to the team with 8.5 sacks. He has a huge responsibility to rush Vick into some ill advised throws or potential strip sack Vick since he likes to extend plays and has a tendency to hold the ball unprotected with one hand. During the past 2 past, the Eagles have faced the Giants and the Bears. Both of those teams proved successful in containing Vick, although we cant really expect the Texans to be on the same par as Vick's previous opponents. That being said the Texans rank 28th defensively in yards per game allowed. Through my analysis the Texans have improved greatly over the last few games even though it has not entirely showed up on the stat sheet. For starters, star linebacker Brian Cushing moved over to his usual spot from middle linebacker to outside and is beginning to regain his 2009 rookie of the year form. Against the Titans last week, Cushing had 4 tackles for a loss and 2 passes deflected. The strenght in the Texans defense lies in their run defense where they are ranked 10th in the league, where they should have success in stopping Mccoy. Defensively their weakness is the air where they give up 282 yards per game ranking them 31st in the league. So it'll be key to maintain the Eagles downfield threat in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Pressure on Vick will be key so that he doesn't have time to wait for the long routes to develop.

On the flip side It looks as though Houston is picking up their game starting with the resurgence in the fourth quarter in week 11 vs the Jets and last week the complete domination against the Titans. This is a huge game for both team as Phily trys to hold their control on the NFC East while the Texans attempt their latest late season resurgence. Historically, the Texans perform very well in December. Last year they won all 4 December games. In 2008 they went 4-1 for finish off the season. Offensively, the Texans match up very well against the Eagles defense. As of right now it seems as though cornerback Asante Samuel will play in this game while left defensive Juqua Parker who has 5 sacks on the season will likely to miss his second straight start. Even with Samuel playing in this game, I don't believe he will be 100% percent recovering from an MCL knee sprain. Star wideout Andre Johnson should take advantage of this situation. The Texans are one of the best play-action teams and will feed off Arian Foster's success. Foster is not only a very good runner, but also excels in the passing game especially screen passes that can net big chunks of yards.

I was really surprised when this line came out. I didn't expect it to be larger than -5/6. Houston Texans are the play here +8.5

St. Louis Rams -3 over Arizona for my early Sunday release, before the line jumps to -3.5

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

GOOD LUCK BRO------ON All Your Plays

[Believeland]

I use a local and doesnt do pushes so I'm getting -3.5 on STL.... I loved it either way at -2.5 and -3.5. Do you think its still a good play?

[Maxlock]

I use a local and doesnt do pushes so I'm getting -3.5 on STL.... I loved it either way at -2.5 and -3.5. Do you think its still a good play?

Yes, I would still play it at -3.5. Without delving too much into this game, St. Louis has an edge in every facet of that game except for kick returns, where Arizona is capable of taking one to the house. Play it at -3.5 if that's what your option is.

[Maxlock]

Houston had every chance to cover the 8 points last night and possibly win, unfortunately in the end they didnt. I'll have 5 Sunday plays up later today.

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping Week 13 Plays: For purposes of record keeping: All odds off sportsbook.com as of 2:00 pm 12/3/10, unless otherwise noted

Thursday: 1) Houston +8.5 over Philadelphia

Sunday:
2) Chicago-Detroit UNDER 44
3) Green Bay -9.5 over San Fransisco
4) Indianapolis -5.5 over Dallas
5) St. Louis -3 over Arizona..I locked in St. Louis at -3 when it first came out. As of now, most books have it at -3.5. I would advise either buying the .5 to take it down or taking it at -3.5.
6) Pittsburgh +3 over Baltimore
7) *I do have a play for MNF. I'll release that once Sunday's games are over with

ATS Record on the season following Thursday's lose: 47-23-6=67%
ATS Record since joining this forum week 10 (all documented on this thread) 15-8-1=65% (this includes Houston's lose Thursday)

I'm looking forward to bouncing back and having a successful Sunday. Best of luck to those backing these games.

[JMobile]

Good luck, max.

[Maxlock]

In addition to the games I have already slated, I have one more to add to my slate:

**Giants-Redskins UNDER 43.5 sportsbook.com 6:00 pm 12/3/10

[Maxlock]

WEEK 13 Results:

1) Thursday: Houston +8.5 over Houston- Lost

2) Sunday:Chicago-Detroit UNDER 44-Push
3) Indianapolis -5.5 over Dallas-Lost
4) NY Giants-Washington UNDER 43- Won
5) St. Louis -3 over Arizona- Won
6) Green Bay -9.5 over San Fran- Won
7) Pittsburgh +3 over Baltimore-Won

That leaves my record at 4-1-1 for this Sunday and 4-2-1 including Thursday's lose.
-Record documented since joining SBR week 10: 19-10-2=65.5% ATS
-2010 overall record: 51-25-7=67% ATS

Seriously, what more can you ask for?

[Maxlock]

I do have a play for Monday Night: Patriots vs. Jets. I'll post that game Monday afternoon.

[chimp]

.. and the MNF pick?

[JMobile]

.. and the MNF pick?

What he said....

[Maxlock]

MNF: Jets at Patriots

PICK: NEW ENGLAND -3.5

[Maxlock]

MNF: Jets at Patriots

PICK: NEW ENGLAND -3.5

Pats up 24-3 at half. Looks good so far for us Pats backers, but still keeping fingers crossed for second half.

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping

Quick recap of my week 13 slate all documented as usual since joining SBR forum week 10
Week 13 ATS record: 5-2-1=71%
Documented ATS Record Since Joining SBR in Week 10: 20-10-2=67%
Season ATS Record: 52-25-7=68%


Wins:
St. Louis -3 over Arizona
Green Bay -9.5 over San Fran
Giants-Redskins Under 43
Pittsburgh +3 over Baltimore
New England -3.5 over NY Jets

Loss:
Houston +8.5 over Phily
Indy -5.5 over Dallas

Push:
Bears-Lions Under 44

**I will have an early play on Thursdays game featuring Indianapolis @ Tennessee..check back tomorrow!