Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping

Thursday's Early Release:

Indianapolis -3 over Tennessee (odds of sportsbook.com as of 11:00 am eastern 12/7/10)

-if you can get this line at 2.5, that's great. My suggestion, if you're backing Indy in this game, then take it now before the line goes up to 3.5/4

-I'll also have an early play on one Sunday game, so watch for that. Maybe even as early as later today or tomorrow. Early plays are made to get the best possible line before the line jumps.

[dugdogg]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping

Thursday's Early Release:

Indianapolis -3 over Tennessee (odds of sportsbook.com as of 11:00 am eastern 12/7/10)

-if you can get this line at 2.5, that's great. My suggestion, if you're backing Indy in this game, then take it now before the line goes up to 3.5/4

-I'll also have an early play on one Sunday game, so watch for that. Maybe even as early as later today or tomorrow. Early plays are made to get the best possible line before the line jumps.

I saw the line at 2.5 yesterday and missed it by an hour on my local book and online...couldn't believe it...even at 3 i'm all over it...is there something we don't know?? the titan have scored 39 pts in the past 4 weeks (9.75 ave)...do the oddsmakers really think that peyton won't score 13 pts to cover -3??

seems too good to be true i want to put my whole bankroll on the colts

[herts9]

the only thing that worries me is that chris johnson finally goes off. they're as one dimensional as the colts are. one has passing, the other has the ground game. collins could target moss for some gains, but they haven't looked like an NFL team the past few weeks. peyton will limit the picks and will win this one 27-17.

[Maxlock]

I saw the line at 2.5 yesterday and missed it by an hour on my local book and online...couldn't believe it...even at 3 i'm all over it...is there something we don't know?? the titan have scored 39 pts in the past 4 weeks (9.75 ave)...do the oddsmakers really think that peyton won't score 13 pts to cover -3?? seems too good to be true i want to put my whole bankroll on the colts

First things first, don't put your entire bankroll on one game. Even if you win this time, its not a good habit to get into. Generally, a good betting rule of thumb is to keep all your games the same amount for that week. A lot of handicappers advertise "locks of the week and locks of the year" but all that is, is an advertising ploy. I have a 52-25-7 ATS record on the season and not once have I have I touted a "lock."

On to the the actual game and "shady" line. I can't say for certain if Vegas is baiting the public to jump all over the Colts. It is true that about 88% of the money is currently on the Colts, but that does not mean that a heavily bet favorite won't cover. My analysis and betting experience points to the Colts winning and covering. Here are a few of the pros and cons of this game for the Colts.

Pros:
-Colts may have starting linebacker Clint Sessions and WR Austin Collie back for this game. Both have missed multiple games.
-I don't see Peyton Manning having another bad game, especially on a national stage. He's a proven gamer and I expect a solid performance from him. The Titans rank 23rd in passing yards allowed and they haven't even played a good/great QB/passing team this year aside from Philip Rivers in week 8 who had 305 yards passing and Tony Romo week 5 who had 406 yards passing. (Week 3 Giants were still slumping)
-Tennessee has been playing awful the last few games. Stats don't lie. Their playoff hopes are essentially over with. While this is a must win game for the Colts. From my experience with betting here's my take on must win games for teams. Good teams usually come through and win the "must" games, while mediocre and bad teams do not. So what do we have in this years Colts team? I think they've proven to be right in the middle of mediocre and good, shading to the good side of the spectrum.
-Colts have won 11 of last 14 meetings.
- Colts are 11-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.
-The Colts have some great veteran players who are accustomed to big time game situations, so I expect them to come out and have a great game.
-Kerry Collins at QB for Tennessee. That alone is a plus for the Colts.


Cons:
-The Colts just got gashed for over 200 yards on the ground playing Dallas. They are ranked 29th in this department, so its quite possible Chris Johnson will have a huge game.
-Starting corner Jerraud Powers is out for the Colts, after getting hurt last week.
-Titans WR Kenny Brit should be making his return back into the lineup after missing several games with a hamstring injury.
-RB Mike Hart and RB Donald Brown both aggravated their ankle injuries in the Cowboys defeat last Sunday. At this time I could not get an update on how serious the injuries are. My guess is that they'll be alright to face Tennessee.
-Every media outlet is saying the Titans are done and they quit on the season. They'll put all they got into this game to prove the doubters wrong. This is essentially their "Superbowl." To take down the Colts would be the high point of their season.

All being set and said, Take the Colts -3 as they prevail in the end.

[Maxlock]

MAXLock Sunday Early Release:

(odds of Sportsbook.com as 1:30 pm eastern 12/7/10)
This is the only Sunday game that I'll be jumping on early before the spread goes up. The rest of my Sunday plays I'll have up Friday.

New England -3 (-120) over Chicago Bears.

I expect this spread to jump to 3.5/4 during the week. Take the Pats now before the line raises, although as of now you're probably paying the 20% juice to get it at -3. Its either the extra 10% juice or getting the line at -3.5 at -110.

[atwolfe]

Doesn't this seem like a let down game for the Pats? Not doubting your pick, just wondering your take on the 'let down' aspect.

[Maxlock]

Doesn't this seem like a let down game for the Pats? Not doubting your pick, just wondering your take on the 'let down' aspect.

Without delving too much into this game: I don't see a letdown on the Patriots part. They're as well coached as any team in the NFL. The Cleveland loss made them realize they can't take any opponent for granted. Since that loss they are on a complete tear. The Bears have also been playing well of late, especially with the their defense playing superbly. With the likes of Peppers and Idonije on the defensive line, they bring pressure without blitzes, something the Jets couldn't do Monday and therefore Brady torched them. Chicago plays a cover 2 defense, which I think plays into the strengths of the Patriots offense. The cover 2 is essential 2 deep safetys which takes away any deep passes. The Patriots and Brady get rid of the ball quickly by running quick release short to intermediate routes. New England has the best combination tight ends with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. I anticipate the Bears linebackers having trouble keeping up with Hernandez and Gronkowski as they are very quick and are great pass catchers for their position. Urlacher and his fellow linebackers may be strong in stuffing the run, but they are a liability against the pass.

Although Cutler and the offense has been playing very well of late, the Patriots defense thrives off of turnover and I expect Belichick and his defense to gameplan a successful scheme to force Cutler into a couple ill advised throws. I noticed the Pats played a lot of zone coverage vs the Jets and it proved to be very successful, look for them to do the same against Cutler and the Bears.

The Patriots are the most successful December team dating back to 2002 season. Take the Pats -3 now before it goes up.

MAXLock NFL Handicapping

[bypp]

Great write-ups. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the Colts only being -3. Thanks and GL.

[dugdogg]

i was speaking figuratively about the bankroll bet...but this does seem like a bet the farm bet...i was about to throw a lot down at -2.5 on monday night then it quickly jumped to -3 before i could even think about it...i've got 100 right now and may throw up to 400 more soon

[Maxlock]

i was speaking figuratively about the bankroll bet...but this does seem like a bet the farm bet...i was about to throw a lot down at -2.5 on monday night then it quickly jumped to -3 before i could even think about it...i've got 100 right now and may throw up to 400 more soon

GL to all Colts backers!!

[jpot34]

GL to all Colts backers!!

You're all gonna need it.

[Maxlock]

You're all gonna need it.

All we need is fair officiating. Colts take care of the rest 31-20.

[jpot34]

All we need is fair officiating. Colts take care of the rest 31-20.

Max, I totally respect your opinion. I've been following you a bit. Fair officiating in this spot could be a major problem, unless of course the NFL is truly clean. I'm not so sure about that. Are you?

[Maxlock]

Max, I totally respect your opinion. I've been following you a bit. Fair officiating in this spot could be a major problem, unless of course the NFL is truly clean. I'm not so sure about that. Are you?

As far as this game and how the officiating will go, I really don't know. From the cynics point of view, The NFL would want for the Colts to win that division. Why would they favor the Jags who are a small market team and have limited following, not to mention numerous blackouts throughout the season. Is the NFL truly clean? Absolutely not, thinking otherwise would be naively incorrect. I'm still fairly young and I've only been watching NFL action since the 90's and more in depth the past 10 years. I have seen way too many blatant horrible calls or no calls that make you question the integrity of the NFL. Not to mention, officiating is quite subjective, full of bias, and player preference. Just look at ex NBA referee Tim Donahue a few years ago and his ties with the mafia and gambling. So is the NFL and/or its referees corrupt in some way or another, all in all its a tough thing to figure out, but I would have to say Yes to a certain degree.

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping

Sunday Early Release #2: San Diego -7 over Kansas City (odds off Sportsbook.com 12:30 12/9/10)
-You may even get this line at -6.5 at some books.
-This pick does not depend on whether Brodie Croyle or Matt Cassel plays, although I would say Cassel is unlikely to play following his appendectomy on Wednesday.

Don't forget my other early Sunday release:
New England -3 (-120) over Chicago
& Tonight's game
Indianapolis -3 over Tennessee

I should have 2 or 3 other Sunday games that I'll release Friday or Saturday. Bol

Documented ATS Record Since Joining SBR in Week 10: 20-10-2=67%
Season ATS Record: 52-25-7=68%

[jpot34]

As far as this game and how the officiating will go, I really don't know. From the cynics point of view, The NFL would want for the Colts to win that division. Why would they favor the Jags who are a small market team and have limited following, not to mention numerous blackouts throughout the season. Is the NFL truly clean? Absolutely not, thinking otherwise would be naively incorrect. I'm still fairly young and I've only been watching NFL action since the 90's and more in depth the past 10 years. I have seen way too many blatant horrible calls or no calls that make you question the integrity of the NFL. Not to mention, officiating is quite subjective, full of bias, and player preference. Just look at ex NBA referee Tim Donahue a few years ago and his ties with the mafia and gambling. So is the NFL and/or its referees corrupt in some way or another, all in all its a tough thing to figure out, but I would have to say Yes to a certain degree.

I really have no clue who will win. My experience goes back about 10 years also (capping). Here's my view. It's rare that the public wins on a Mon., and Thurs. night games consecutively in the same week (4 day period). Rare doesn't mean a lock, that's for sure.

[Maxlock]

Recap of the Colts-Titans Game:
I don't want to make an excuses for my Colts lose at -3 but here's just a few of my thoughts on the game.

-Gut wrenching.
-Even at the start of the fourth quarter, deep down inside I had this feeling that the game would be played out the way it did.
-Whether there was a fix or not, one can only speculate, but this is as close to a "scripted" finish you can have.
-The minute the Colts kicked their last field goal, I knew Colts backers were fukked. The Colts D played soft with their coverage deep and that allowed Chris Johnson to pick up 10-15 yards on each short pass.
-Jeff Fisher not opting to go for the FG with 45 seconds left to have a chance for an on sides kick to potential win it at the end. With a supposedly, "smart" coach that was definitely a shady move.
-There are some reports out there that said the kicker ran out on the field by himself, before being pulled by Fisher...I say BS I don't think the kicker would just run out without being told.
-Colts were up 21-7 at half, only to score 3 second half field goals while the Titans scored 3 second half TDs...hmmm interesting.
-Pinnacle kept their line at -3 with the juice staying steady right around 10% throughout the week

This game is why I advise staying away from "locks" and keeping all your bets for that week the same amount.

I'll have the remainder of the Week 14 plays up later today, so far on the board:

New England -3 over Chiacago
San Diego-7 over KC

[Maxlock]

MAXLock NFL Handicapping Week 14 Slate:
All odds of sportsbook.com as of 4:00 pm eastern 12/10/10

1)Colts-3 over Tennessee-Lose
2) NY Giants -3 over Minnesota
3) New England -3 over Chicago
4) San Diego -7 over Kansas City (due to the likelihood that Matt Cassel will not play, this line may not be out at several books and will probably increase. I'd still take it -10 and under.
5) St. Louis +9 over New Orleans
6) Arizona +4.5 over Denver

[bypp]

like them all except arizona. i refuse to waste any more money on arizona and carolina, so im just staying away. best of luck to you.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

No play on The buc's this week? They seem easy

[Maxlock]

No play on The buc's this week? They seem easy

The Bucs have two key injuries following last week. And its difficult to tell how a young team such as the Bucs will respond on the road following a devastating loss to Atlanta. I would not recommend Tampa in this situation, even against a "weak" Redskins team.

[HiTMaNN]

I have read your plays and I love your write ups I am with you 100 percent this week so either we go up together or we crash and burn together.

[Maxlock]

I have read your plays and I love your write ups I am with you 100 percent this week so either we go up together or we crash and burn together.

[dextermasuka]

good writing...

[Maxlock]

All we need is fair officiating. Colts take care of the rest 31-20.

I had this game figured out if it wasn't for the Damn Td with 0:00 left. Final score 30-28

[dwang0725]

Like the plays. Good luck this week.

[TheTreeOfLife]

bol this week max!
always enjoy your insight and the discussion here

[low Q]

I had this game figured out if it wasn't for the Damn Td with 0:00 left. Final score 30-28

Yeah, the end of that game smelled fishy (fisher). I like the rest of your picks except the Cards - the QB is out so I'm stayin' away from that one. Denver sucks - but not as bad as the Cards
Best O'luck

[Stevedore]

I had this game figured out if it wasn't for the Damn Td with 0:00 left. Final score 30-28

When Vinateri made the FG for the Colts, I knew we were doomed. I was actually hoping for a miss. A miss there and we don't have to watch the Colts sit back in a cover 2 and blow the game. GL on all your plays this week.

[SunzT]

I'm with you this week, even had the Colts , all of 'em except the 'Cards ...

[Maxlock]

I'm with you this week, even had the Colts , all of 'em except the 'Cards ...

BOL

[atwolfe]

3-1 today!! With the giants pending tomorrow night. do you still like them even with the game moved to tomorrow night in Detroit?

[HiTMaNN]

All odds of sportsbook.com as of 4:00 pm eastern 12/10/10

1)Colts-3 over Tennessee-Lose
2) NY Giants -3 over Minnesota
3) New England -3 over Chicago-WIN
4) San Diego -7 over Kansas City WIN(due to the likelihood that Matt Cassel will not play, this line may not be out at several books and will probably increase. I'd still take it -10 and under.
5) St. Louis +9 over New Orleans -Lose
6) Arizona +4.5 over Denver-WIN

[Maxlock]

3-1 today!! With the giants pending tomorrow night. do you still like them even with the game moved to tomorrow night in Detroit?

Yes, bank them!

[Viperpiper]

eagles or dallas?