Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[C-Gold]

Sparano choose Pennington as the starting QB because he will eliminate dumb decisions and turnovers that Henne was prone to make over and over. Pennington is known as a very accurate passer, although hes not known to fling the fall downfield. In my opinion this move will work out well for the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall is more of a Yards after catch type reciever versus a vertical receiver so he will get alot of yards after the catch. The same goes for Devon Bess. More on Henne: he's been on a steady down slope the past few weeks. Last week he had 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles against the Ravens. In the win over the Bengals he has one pic, and a very pedestrian 69.3 QB rating. I really put much of the red zone woes on Henne, he just doesn't seem to be a smart decision maker right now especially when it matters most in the red zone. Now with Pennington, they will have a very balanced running attack, accurate passer with the ability to give his receivers YAC, a very reliable kicker, and an above average defense.

The dolphins don't blow anyone out but they are the smart play here at home +1. Tennessee is getting to much respect from the general public simply because of the Moss move.

Now on to the Monday Game: Phily at Washington

Mike Shanahan is 9-4 ATS coming off the bye. Don't think he'll be ready for Vick and his antics? Give the smartest coaches 2 weeks to prepare and I think he will. I actually think this Eagles team is vastly overrated due to the Vick presence. I see Washington limiting Vick's ability to scramble and this will lead to some ill advised throws in favor of the Redskins. So far last time I checked Vick has 0 interceptions on the season. One can only wonder is this the game he finally throws 2 picks. Did we forget the last time Mcnabb got benched during his pitiful performance vs the Ravens in 2009? He came back and had one of his strongest games and seasons. Following his in game benching, Mcnabb went on to beat Arizona 48-20 as he threw for 260 yards and 4 Tds. They went on to win 4 0ut of their last 5 games.

Washington getting points at home on Monday Night is the right choice here. When the Packers lost here this year, Aaron Rodgers stated that he was surprised by how loud the fans at FedEX were. In Vegas about 90% of the bets are going on Phily, yet the line has not moved at all. Vegas is baiting people to bet Phily.

Take Washington plus the 3

Solid logic if you ask me. I agree 100% on Pennington. Very underrated. He's efficient and a good decision maker. Henne is big, young and slow. Slow release. I didn't think he'd even do as good as he's done, I wondered that the heck Parcells saw in him as I saw Henne being like Bledsoe at the end of his career. Big, slow, slow release, holding onto the ball.

I like that you care about the kicker Carpenter has been good and field position and good point on Bess and Marshall being Yac receivers that can break away and get good yardage for cheap easy throws. I tend to lean Miami but haven't pulled the trigger as I like other plays better.

Mcnabb has responded well after benchings, Shanny is the 3rd best coach in the NFL, and Vick is overrated. He lit up the Lions defense? barely pulled a win off vs the Colts? Had the best game ever vs the Jags? Come on. He's not that good. The networks are hyping him up like he's Jesus. Exciting maybe, but he's still dumb as bricks and not a good passer. Vick for MVP, Vick as the best QB, blah blah blah. I want to fade that but Washington really is a mess right now. Mcnabbs still better than Vick though and Washington beat the Eagles on the road and knocked the dog killer out before.

[Maxlock]

Solid logic if you ask me. I agree 100% on Pennington. Very underrated. He's efficient and a good decision maker. Henne is big, young and slow. Slow release. I didn't think he'd even do as good as he's done, I wondered that the heck Parcells saw in him as I saw Henne being like Bledsoe at the end of his career. Big, slow, slow release, holding onto the ball. I like that you care about the kicker Carpenter has been good and field position and good point on Bess and Marshall being Yac receivers that can break away and get good yardage for cheap easy throws. I tend to lean Miami but haven't pulled the trigger as I like other plays better. Mcnabb has responded well after benchings, Shanny is the 3rd best coach in the NFL, and Vick is overrated. He lit up the Lions defense? barely pulled a win off vs the Colts? Had the best game ever vs the Jags? Come on. He's not that good. The networks are hyping him up like he's Jesus. Exciting maybe, but he's still dumb as bricks and not a good passer. Vick for MVP, Vick as the best QB, blah blah blah. I want to fade that but Washington really is a mess right now. Mcnabbs still better than Vick though and Washington beat the Eagles on the road and knocked the dog killer out before.

Completely agree with your Vick assessment. Hopefully Washington comes through for me Monday.

[portnoy65]

BOL!
I'm on Dallas +17;Denver +3.5; and Cinci +10.5 "...the worst pick's on the week"

[big0mar]

If you aren't sharp enough to select the correct posters to tail and make easy, FREE money, then just stop posting and ruining it for the rest of us.

[bhikool836]

like your picks...gl with em!

[vyomguy]

Anyone who picks dallas shouldnt be taken seriously....you wont even hit 50% this week.

[Jerbowski]

Miami has through recent years has always been tough at home. I don't put much stock in the fact that they are winless at home this season simply due to the fact of that they have played some of the best teams at home. (Jets, Patriots, Steelers) Miami is the pick to pull away in the fourth quarter with a strong running game and a very reliable kicking game to cover the 1 point.

As a longtime Dolphin fan I can tell you that year after year (except for the 1-15 season) they come out of the gate strong in Sept then tend to fade out by Dec. I personally think Ten is just too talented. Miami is talented too but they just need a year or two to gel.

[Jerbowski]

Sparano choose Pennington as the starting QB because he will eliminate dumb decisions and turnovers that Henne was prone to make over and over. Pennington is known as a very accurate passer, although hes not known to fling the fall downfield. In my opinion this move will work out well for the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall is more of a Yards after catch type reciever versus a vertical receiver so he will get alot of yards after the catch. The same goes for Devon Bess. More on Henne: he's been on a steady down slope the past few weeks. Last week he had 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles against the Ravens. In the win over the Bengals he has one pic, and a very pedestrian 69.3 QB rating. I really put much of the red zone woes on Henne, he just doesn't seem to be a smart decision maker right now especially when it matters most in the red zone. Now with Pennington, they will have a very balanced running attack, accurate passer with the ability to give his receivers YAC, a very reliable kicker, and an above average defense.

The dolphins don't blow anyone out but they are the smart play here at home +1. Tennessee is getting to much respect from the general public simply because of the Moss move.

Now on to the Monday Game: Phily at Washington

Mike Shanahan is 9-4 ATS coming off the bye. Don't think he'll be ready for Vick and his antics? Give the smartest coaches 2 weeks to prepare and I think he will. I actually think this Eagles team is vastly overrated due to the Vick presence. I see Washington limiting Vick's ability to scramble and this will lead to some ill advised throws in favor of the Redskins. So far last time I checked Vick has 0 interceptions on the season. One can only wonder is this the game he finally throws 2 picks. Did we forget the last time Mcnabb got benched during his pitiful performance vs the Ravens in 2009? He came back and had one of his strongest games and seasons. Following his in game benching, Mcnabb went on to beat Arizona 48-20 as he threw for 260 yards and 4 Tds. They went on to win 4 0ut of their last 5 games.

Washington getting points at home on Monday Night is the right choice here. When the Packers lost here this year, Aaron Rodgers stated that he was surprised by how loud the fans at FedEX were. In Vegas about 90% of the bets are going on Phily, yet the line has not moved at all. Vegas is baiting people to bet Phily.

Take Washington plus the 3

Good write up...Ill be trailing these two games.......however I am not betting on either of them..BOL.

[Maxlock]

Anyone who picks dallas shouldnt be taken seriously....you wont even hit 50% this week.

It's people like you that make the bookies tons of money. Eat shit mf

[bypp]

lol looks good so far. too bad you didn't hold off to put in for the buffalo play! i lucked out and got em -1.5 with my local.

[Maxlock]

lol looks good so far. too bad you didn't hold off to put in for the buffalo play! i lucked out and got em -1.5 with my local.

I actually waited till game time and got Buffalo -2, so I pushed. As for the Houston loss, I'm still at lose for words.

[Stevedore]

Outstanding day by you Max. You officially have my attention. The Houston game was absolutely BRUTAL. I took a bath on that game.

[Vangel330]

Great picks!!!

[Maxlock]

Outstanding day by you Max. You officially have my attention. The Houston game was absolutely BRUTAL. I took a bath on that game.

Thank You I appreciate the gratitude. As for the Houston game it was one of those "bad beats" that will remain etched in my memory for a long while. Sorry to hear on your part. Hang in there man.

[low Q]

yeah, great picks Max, tailed you on all but the Cowboys, just couldn't do it, figured the Giants would smoke them at home so I sat out on that one. Great call, I'm still in shock. Still feeling good about the Skins?

[ClimbSomeRocks]

any early feelings on ATL -3 @ STL? Seems to me like the line should be closer to -8

[Maxlock]

yeah, great picks Max, tailed you on all but the Cowboys, just couldn't do it, figured the Giants would smoke them at home so I sat out on that one. Great call, I'm still in shock. Still feeling good about the Skins?

This was the type of game I expected Dallas to play last week. It's to bad they waited this long to wake up. It's funny though ESPN and other networks fed the public a bunch of bull. Specifically Tom Jackson of ESPN, "The firing of Wade Philips will do nothing for Dallas..." I didn't expect the Cowboys being a veteran team to lay down twice to a division rival, especially following the of firing of Wade Philips in which players are playing for their starting positions.

As for tonight's Phily-Washington game I'm still sticking with the Redskins. My recommendation is to wait till game-time and hopefully get the line at +3.5. It's really a tough game to call. The biggest question I keep asking myself, "Will the Redskins limit Vick's scrambling ability?" As much as his accuracy has imprived thats not what worries me. My belief is that they'll have linebacker spying Vick so he doesn't take off on key third downs or whenever he wants to. It certainly helped that Washington is coming off a bye, which gives defensive coordinator a chance to institute a good game plan. While some coaches struggle, Coach Shanahan is 9-4 ATS coming off a bye. I'm pretty confident Washington can contain Desean Jackson and his ability to stretch the field, they did a good job the first time around even though it was mostly Kevin Kolb in the game. I'm not ready to jump on the Vick bandwagon, as he has played some very soft defenses in the games he's excelled.

I see tonight's game being a see-saw battle. The Skins always play their opponents tough. In their two home losses they lost to the Colts by three points and the Texans by three points. Ryan Torrain should return for tonight's game and will help the running game and play action passes down field. So in a game that will go back and forth and possibly ending in a field goal either way, its better to side with Washington at home on a Monday night. Take the points and Washington +3/3.5

[Maxlock]

any early feelings on ATL -3 @ STL? Seems to me like the line should be closer to -8

That line does look tempting to jump on. But its to early for me to call. I'll try to make a call on that game by the end of Tuesday. I'm looking to release my Week 11 picks on Thursday at noon eastern time. As of right now I do have a lean on Thursday's action featuring Chicago at Miami.

[dwang0725]

Decent week Maxlock. 4-1-1 based on your push with Det/Buff. I hit on Dallas and Miami with you. Good luck this week.

[low Q]

Decent week Maxlock. 4-1-1 based on your push with Det/Buff. I hit on Dallas and Miami with you. Good luck this week.

I'd take 4-1-1 any week....

[Maxlock]

Washington Redskins Kick return specialist/ receiver Brandon Banks is set to play today. This is great news for Washington backers. This guy is dynamic in the return game, hopefully he's as close to 100% as possible coming off a knee injury. Banks is third in the league in punt return average and 7th in kick returns, with 1 TD. Portis looks to be all but out for this game, but we will have Ryan Torrain back following his injury. My suggestion, wait to get the line at +3.5. BOL to myself and the other Washington backers.

On another note, I've begun compiling my numbers and analysis on the Thursday match up. I like one side quite a bit here. I'll post that game with in depth analysis along with the rest of week 11 Thursday noon eastern.

[Smogs]

Good week Max, i can't pick a side on tonight's game but great insight into it anyway - gl with the upcoming week

[Sdotbold]

Maxlock, nice picks this week and your writeups are right on. The Eagles are my home team but I think tonights game will be close, historically they usually are. Last game the Skins used S Leron Landry to spy Vick. I think he is able to keep Vick contained. If they use a LB they could be in trouble. Vick can out run a LB but he wont outrun Landry. Either way it goes tonight, great week! hope to see you continue to post in the future. Goodluck tonight everyone, Lets go Birds!

[Jerbowski]

interesting...........you are on Washington +3.5 while Smackdown is on Philly -3.5...............

[low Q]

ugh! 35-0 in the 2nd quarter... oh well, still a good week Max

[Maxlock]

ugh! 35-0 in the 2nd quarter... oh well, still a good week Max

I really don't have an explanation for this game and I don't think Shanahan will have either, except to say "We didn't execute." Anyways, its time to move on to week 11. I have a pretty strong lean on Thursday's game and will post it up Wednesday/Thursday. I'm new to this site, so I'm not sure do I start a new thread or continue this thread with next weeks picks. What do you guys think?

[Stevedore]

interesting...........you are on Washington +3.5 while Smackdown is on Philly -3.5...............

Smackdown is pretty tough in primetime games.

[Stevedore]

I really don't have an explanation for this game and I don't think Shanahan will have either, except to say "We didn't execute." Anyways, its time to move on to week 11. I have a pretty strong lean on Thursday's game and will post it up Wednesday/Thursday. I'm new to this site, so I'm not sure do I start a new thread or continue this thread with next weeks picks. What do you guys think?

Continue with this thread Max, it's easier for you and everyone that wants to follow it.

[low Q]

Continue with this thread Max, it's easier for you and everyone that wants to follow it.

yeah, I agree. It makes it easier cause I just bookmark it.

[Maxlock]

Before I begin my week 11 picks and analysis, here’s a recap of how week 10 went:
Wins:
Atlanta -1 over Baltimore
Miami +1 over Tennessee
NY Jets -3 over Cleveland
Cincinnati +7 over Indianapolis
Dallas Cowboys +14 over NY Giants
Losses:
Houston + 1.5 over Jacksonville
Washington +3 over Phily……………..and the push: being Buffalo -2 over Detroit. Although many of you may have gotten Buffalo at -1/-1.5 for a win.
5-2-1 on the week….35-17-6 on the season ATS. 67% winning percentage


I have mixed feelings about this week. In all actuality this was set up to be a golden week. But a backdoor Detroit TD with seconds left caused me to push on Buffalo and a hailmary pass by Jacksonville lost the Houston pick. I'm not complaining though I'll take a 5-2-1 week. So far for week 11 I have 5 games on my board that I like. I'll get to them Wednesday.

[sdsports]

Yes Maxlock. Keep this thread going. Look forward to your picks

[Maxlock]

WEEK 11 PICKS: All odds taken off sportsbook.com as of 8:30 eastern 11/16/10

1) Thursday: Miami -1.5 over Chicago
2) Buffalo Bills +5.5 over Cincinnati 1:00
3) Green Bay -3 over Minnesota 1:00
4) NY Jets -7 over Houston 1:00
5) San Fran -3 over Tampa Bay 4:05
6) Atlanta -3 over St. Louis 4:05

*As of now I don’t have a play on the Monday nighter. I don't want to force the issue as I think I did this past Monday. I may have a play on that game as the week goes on, but right now I’m leaving it at these 6 games Sunday.

Miami- Chicago Analysis:
I’m not a Jake Cutler hater by any stretch of imagination, but numbers simply don’t lie (although they don’t tell the whole story also). I recall Cutler being horrible in primetime away games, so I did some research and here’s what I came up with.

Here are all 2009 Chicago AWAY PRIMETIME Games:
Week 1 @ Green Bay: Cutler 17/36, 277 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT Result: Chicago losses 21-15
Week 8 @ Atlanta: Cutler 27/43, 300 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT Result: Chicago losses 21-14
Week 10 @ San Fran (Thursday Game) 29/52, 307 yards, 0 TD, 5 INT Result: Chicago losses 10-6

2010 Chicago AWAY PRIMETIME Games:
Week 4 @NYG: Cutler 8/11, 42 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 9 sacks
So in Jake Cutler’s career with the Bears he has gone on the road 4 times in primetime games, three of which were Sunday Night and one being a Thursday game. He has a combined record of 0-4 in these types of games, with horrible numbers. Will there be a 5th such game? I’d bet on it. Cutler has a knack for holding on to the ball way to long. Miami is ranked 11th in sacking the QB. OLB Cameron Wake is beast with 8.5 sacks on the season thus far. Ranking 6th in the league in pass defense and 16th in run defense. Corner backs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are futures stars in this league as they continue to shut down opposing receivers. Look at their schedule and you’ll see they’ve covered some very good receivers.
Now on to the more pressing matter. With Pennington out and Henne not starting either, how will Tyler Thigpen fair this season, specifically this game? I happen to think he’ll be alright. He was a previous starter with the Chiefs and played decent with a bad Chiefs team. In limited action against Tennessee Thigpen went 4-6, 64 yards and one TD. Thigpen is a mobile QB and will help his team move the chains on key scrambles. Good teams tend to rally and give 110% with a backup QB under center. Chicago has proven to be susceptible against the pass and I think they’ll have trouble containing a big receiver like Brandon Marshall.

Concerns for Miami going into this game: 1) Chicago’s run defense, ranked 2nd. Miami is a run oriented team and needs to have some sort of success running the ball to win games. The only team that had a good game running the ball vs. Chicago was the Giants in week 4 in which Jacobs and Bradshaw combined for 191 yards on 29 carries.
2) LT Jake Long suffered a dislocated shoulder vs. Tennessee. His status for Thursday is uncertain at this time, but I'm hopeful he will start.

Look at Miami’s schedule and you’ll see they have played some very quality opponents. Miami -1.5 at home coming off a short week at home in front of a wild crowd is the play here.

NY Jets-Houston Analysis
On paper the Jets match up very well against the Texans. They have one of the best tandems at running back with LT and Shonn Greene ranking 4th in the league. Watching Mark Sanchez play last week against a pretty solid Browns defense I was amazed at his pocket awareness and elusiveness. On the other hand the Texans struggle very much against the pass. They rank 32nd versus the pass and 15th against the run. Houston made David Garrad look like the next John Elway. Sanchez will have a field day off of play action passes downfield to his receivers. It looks as though cornerback Revis is back to 2009 form after struggling a bit with his hamstring injury. He completely shut down Calvin Johnson two weeks ago and will do the same with Andre Johnson this week. Last year Revis held Johnson to 4 catches for 37 yards.

Last year the Texans came to New Jersey to face the Jets in week one. NY manhandled Houston and beat them by the score of 24-7. This time around its safe to say the Jets have a better team than last, while Houston has pretty much stayed the same on offense yet has fallen defensively.

Psychologically, I believe Houston will be down following their last second defeat at the hands of a hailmary pass. Traveling to New Jersey to face the hard hitting Jets in a cold environment the last thing Houston wants to deal with. At first glance taking the Jets at -7 may seem risky but in actuality this game will seem a lot like last year. I’m predicting the score to be 27-13. Take the Jets -7 at home.

Buffalo-Cincinnati Analysis
Although Buffalo’s record is 1-8 they play each opponent extremely tough week in and week out. So why is Cincy who only has 2 wins on the season a 5.5 point favorite? Well, because the public hypes up star players like T.O and Ocho Cinco. The Bengals will be extremely flat in this spot playing a perceived weak Bills team. They just lost 2 hard fought matches which essentially were a must wins against two very good AFC teams and are now 2-7 on the season. They know their season is essentially over now. The Bills on the other hand continue to fight every week, a sign of good coaching. Cincinnati continues to turn the ball over and is due for at least two turnovers this week. The Bills have a pretty solid secondary so they should be able to limit Cincinnati’s aerial attack. On the other hand Fred Jackson should find plenty of holes to run through as the Bengals rank 22nd versus the run.

Since 2002 teams who are 0-8 and get their first win are 3-0 ATS the following week. Buffalo +5.5 is the play here.

Green Bay-Minnesota Analysis
Green Bay is on a roll, making my preseason prediction of a NY Jets-Green Bay Superbowl very likely. On the other hand Minnesota is heading in the opposite direction. Favre is beat up and so is his go to target Percy Harvin. Green Bay ranks first in the league in sacks with Clay Matthews being an absolute monster and defensive player of the year candidate. They should be able to rush Favre into a few ill advised throws and have the opportunistic Green Bay secondary pick one or two. On the offensive side Green Bay is playing at a very high pace. Rodgers and his receivers seem to be completely in synch. The Vikings defensive line at this point is overrated and does not create the same pressure they did last year. Age on the line seems to be getting the best of the Vikings this year. I’m liking what I’ve seen from running back Brandon Jackson the last few weeks. It seems he’s found his niche in Packer offense, both running the ball and catching passes. Mike McCarthy is 4-0 ATS following the bye week. The only plus side I see for Minnesota is the possible return of Sydney Rice. But I think his success will be limited his first week back since he hasn’t played all year. I expect Favre and his posse to give it one last attempt to save their season and beat his former team, but in the end Green Bay’s defense is too solid and their offense is virtually unstoppable at this point. Green Bay -3.

Atlanta -3 over St. Louis
San Francisco -3 over Tampa Bay

I'm looking forward to another successful week. BOL to those backing these games

[Maxlock]

Just wanted to point out that I weigh my games equally. I don't believe in locks. People claiming to have a lock of the week, month, season,etc fools

[Jerbowski]

Before I begin my week 11 picks and analysis, here’s a recap of how week 10 went:
Wins:
Atlanta -1 over Baltimore
Miami +1 over Tennessee
NY Jets -3 over Cleveland
Cincinnati +7 over Indianapolis
Dallas Cowboys +14 over NY Giants
Losses:
Houston + 1.5 over Jacksonville
Washington +3 over Phily……………..and the push: being Buffalo -2 over Detroit. Although many of you may have gotten Buffalo at -1/-1.5 for a win.
5-2-1 on the week….35-17-6 on the season ATS. 67% winning percentage


I have mixed feelings about this week. In all actuality this was set up to be a golden week. But a backdoor Detroit TD with seconds left caused me to push on Buffalo and a hailmary pass by Jacksonville lost the Houston pick. I'm not complaining though I'll take a 5-2-1 week. So far for week 11 I have 5 games on my board that I like. I'll get to them Wednesday.

Looking pretty solid so far. Keep up the good work. Ill be watching (and maybe following) a play or two

[ClimbSomeRocks]

great write ups, keep it up. Do you expect any of the lines to move and is there away to predict line movement? There are a lot of key numbers that I'd like to jump on if they are moving away from the play, but if I had any feeling it was moving towards our play from -7 to -6.5 or -3 to -2.5 it'd be better to wait.

What do you think and is there a way to accurately predict line movement. (probably have to disregard RLM but that isn't so common anyways)