Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[ssk13809]

I predicted 5-2 for you last week based on my analysis of your picks. You went 5-2.


This week, I'd say 4-2, and 3-3 if you get unlucky.

[Maxlock]

[/quote]

great write ups, keep it up. Do you expect any of the lines to move and is there away to predict line movement? There are a lot of key numbers that I'd like to jump on if they are moving away from the play, but if I had any feeling it was moving towards our play from -7 to -6.5 or -3 to -2.5 it'd be better to wait. What do you think and is there a way to accurately predict line movement. (probably have to disregard RLM but that isn't so common anyways)

One way to predict line movement is to look at what percentage of money is bet on what side. For example, if the favorite is heavily bet, then the books will sometimes increase the line to sway people to the other side. Although some books disregard that and still keep the line steady. I've also seen the exact opposite happen, which in my opinion is very shady. The only thing I can think of is that Vegas and the oddsmakers are baiting the public to jump on one side and then get crushed. Generally speaking, its not a good idea when one side is extremely heavily bet and the line still remains the same, the result is usually the public taking a pounding.

As for this weeks games here's what I think will move: Jets will stay steady at -7. The percentage of money bet on that game is split both way.
-Packers may increase to from -3 to -3.5. The public is betting the Pack heavily as of now.
-Same goes for Atlanta....
-With Buffalo its harder to tell. My guess is that it will more likely increase to 6 rather than dip to 5.
-Miami will stay steady right around -1

[low Q]

I predicted 5-2 for you last week based on my analysis of your picks. You went 5-2.


This week, I'd say 4-2, and 3-3 if you get unlucky.

How do you know this if he hasn't posted a pick yet, jus wonderin'

[Maxlock]

The picks for this week are up. Bottom of page 3. A little sooner than I planned for but its ok, I don't see them changing.

[ssk13809]

How do you know this if he hasn't posted a pick yet, jus wonderin'

He has posted them

[low Q]

He has posted them

sorry.... missed that!

[ChileCheese]

Just wanted to point out that I weigh my games equally. I don't believe in locks. People claiming to have a lock of the week, month, season,etc fools

Indeed

[Maxlock]

I predicted 5-2 for you last week based on my analysis of your picks. You went 5-2. This week, I'd say 4-2, and 3-3 if you get unlucky.

Right...because you're Nostradamus

[low Q]

Right...because you're Nostradamus

hahahahaha yeah me too!

[bhikool836]

like all ur picks Maxlock...gl with fins tonight!

[Stevedore]

One way to predict line movement is to look at what percentage of money is bet on what side. For example, if the favorite is heavily bet, then the books will sometimes increase the line to sway people to the other side. Although some books disregard that and still keep the line steady. I've also seen the exact opposite happen, which in my opinion is very shady. The only thing I can think of is that Vegas and the oddsmakers are baiting the public to jump on one side and then get crushed. Generally speaking, its not a good idea when one side is extremely heavily bet and the line still remains the same, the result is usually the public taking a pounding.

As for this weeks games here's what I think will move: Jets will stay steady at -7. The percentage of money bet on that game is split both way.
-Packers may increase to from -3 to -3.5. The public is betting the Pack heavily as of now.
-Same goes for Atlanta....
-With Buffalo its harder to tell. My guess is that it will more likely increase to 6 rather than dip to 5.
-Miami will stay steady right around -1[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately this line got POUNDED by the public which was the kiss of death. We get the game from Cutler that we want, INT and a 60 QB rating and still lose. This Chicago team is so ******* overrated, 29th ranked offense?

I'm liking your Buff, Jets, GB, and SF picks bro. See what happens this week. Thanks for taking the time...

[duwork]

WEEK 11 PICKS: All odds taken off sportsbook.com as of 8:30 eastern 11/16/10 1) Thursday: Miami -1.5 over Chicago 2) Buffalo Bills +5.5 over Cincinnati 1:00 3) Green Bay -3 over Minnesota 1:00 4) NY Jets -7 over Houston 1:00 5) San Fran -3 over Tampa Bay 4:05 6) Atlanta -3 over St. Louis 4:05 *As of now I don’t have a play on the Monday nighter. I don't want to force the issue as I think I did this past Monday. I may have a play on that game as the week goes on, but right now I’m leaving it at these 6 games Sunday. Miami- Chicago Analysis: I’m not a Jake Cutler hater by any stretch of imagination, but numbers simply don’t lie (although they don’t tell the whole story also). I recall Cutler being horrible in primetime away games, so I did some research and here’s what I came up with. Here are all 2009 Chicago AWAY PRIMETIME Games: Week 1 @ Green Bay: Cutler 17/36, 277 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT Result: Chicago losses 21-15 Week 8 @ Atlanta: Cutler 27/43, 300 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT Result: Chicago losses 21-14 Week 10 @ San Fran (Thursday Game) 29/52, 307 yards, 0 TD, 5 INT Result: Chicago losses 10-6 2010 Chicago AWAY PRIMETIME Games: Week 4 @NYG: Cutler 8/11, 42 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 9 sacks So in Jake Cutler’s career with the Bears he has gone on the road 4 times in primetime games, three of which were Sunday Night and one being a Thursday game. He has a combined record of 0-4 in these types of games, with horrible numbers. Will there be a 5th such game? I’d bet on it. Cutler has a knack for holding on to the ball way to long. Miami is ranked 11th in sacking the QB. OLB Cameron Wake is beast with 8.5 sacks on the season thus far. Ranking 6th in the league in pass defense and 16th in run defense. Corner backs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are futures stars in this league as they continue to shut down opposing receivers. Look at their schedule and you’ll see they’ve covered some very good receivers. Now on to the more pressing matter. With Pennington out and Henne not starting either, how will Tyler Thigpen fair this season, specifically this game? I happen to think he’ll be alright. He was a previous starter with the Chiefs and played decent with a bad Chiefs team. In limited action against Tennessee Thigpen went 4-6, 64 yards and one TD. Thigpen is a mobile QB and will help his team move the chains on key scrambles. Good teams tend to rally and give 110% with a backup QB under center. Chicago has proven to be susceptible against the pass and I think they’ll have trouble containing a big receiver like Brandon Marshall. Concerns for Miami going into this game: 1) Chicago’s run defense, ranked 2nd. Miami is a run oriented team and needs to have some sort of success running the ball to win games. The only team that had a good game running the ball vs. Chicago was the Giants in week 4 in which Jacobs and Bradshaw combined for 191 yards on 29 carries. 2) LT Jake Long suffered a dislocated shoulder vs. Tennessee. His status for Thursday is uncertain at this time, but I'm hopeful he will start. Look at Miami’s schedule and you’ll see they have played some very quality opponents. Miami -1.5 at home coming off a short week at home in front of a wild crowd is the play here. NY Jets-Houston Analysis On paper the Jets match up very well against the Texans. They have one of the best tandems at running back with LT and Shonn Greene ranking 4th in the league. Watching Mark Sanchez play last week against a pretty solid Browns defense I was amazed at his pocket awareness and elusiveness. On the other hand the Texans struggle very much against the pass. They rank 32nd versus the pass and 15th against the run. Houston made David Garrad look like the next John Elway. Sanchez will have a field day off of play action passes downfield to his receivers. It looks as though cornerback Revis is back to 2009 form after struggling a bit with his hamstring injury. He completely shut down Calvin Johnson two weeks ago and will do the same with Andre Johnson this week. Last year Revis held Johnson to 4 catches for 37 yards. Last year the Texans came to New Jersey to face the Jets in week one. NY manhandled Houston and beat them by the score of 24-7. This time around its safe to say the Jets have a better team than last, while Houston has pretty much stayed the same on offense yet has fallen defensively. Psychologically, I believe Houston will be down following their last second defeat at the hands of a hailmary pass. Traveling to New Jersey to face the hard hitting Jets in a cold environment the last thing Houston wants to deal with. At first glance taking the Jets at -7 may seem risky but in actuality this game will seem a lot like last year. I’m predicting the score to be 27-13. Take the Jets -7 at home. Buffalo-Cincinnati Analysis Although Buffalo’s record is 1-8 they play each opponent extremely tough week in and week out. So why is Cincy who only has 2 wins on the season a 5.5 point favorite? Well, because the public hypes up star players like T.O and Ocho Cinco. The Bengals will be extremely flat in this spot playing a perceived weak Bills team. They just lost 2 hard fought matches which essentially were a must wins against two very good AFC teams and are now 2-7 on the season. They know their season is essentially over now. The Bills on the other hand continue to fight every week, a sign of good coaching. Cincinnati continues to turn the ball over and is due for at least two turnovers this week. The Bills have a pretty solid secondary so they should be able to limit Cincinnati’s aerial attack. On the other hand Fred Jackson should find plenty of holes to run through as the Bengals rank 22nd versus the run. Since 2002 teams who are 0-8 and get their first win are 3-0 ATS the following week. Buffalo +5.5 is the play here. Green Bay-Minnesota Analysis Green Bay is on a roll, making my preseason prediction of a NY Jets-Green Bay Superbowl very likely. On the other hand Minnesota is heading in the opposite direction. Favre is beat up and so is his go to target Percy Harvin. Green Bay ranks first in the league in sacks with Clay Matthews being an absolute monster and defensive player of the year candidate. They should be able to rush Favre into a few ill advised throws and have the opportunistic Green Bay secondary pick one or two. On the offensive side Green Bay is playing at a very high pace. Rodgers and his receivers seem to be completely in synch. The Vikings defensive line at this point is overrated and does not create the same pressure they did last year. Age on the line seems to be getting the best of the Vikings this year. I’m liking what I’ve seen from running back Brandon Jackson the last few weeks. It seems he’s found his niche in Packer offense, both running the ball and catching passes. Mike McCarthy is 4-0 ATS following the bye week. The only plus side I see for Minnesota is the possible return of Sydney Rice. But I think his success will be limited his first week back since he hasn’t played all year. I expect Favre and his posse to give it one last attempt to save their season and beat his former team, but in the end Green Bay’s defense is too solid and their offense is virtually unstoppable at this point. Green Bay -3. Atlanta -3 over St. Louis San Francisco -3 over Tampa Bay I'm looking forward to another successful week. BOL to those backing these games

Jake Cutler or Jay Cutler? I seriously cannot take any of these write-ups seriously @ this point.

[duwork]

I mean, truthfully, your Dolphins pick speaks for itself. Furthermore, I couldn't resist in pointing out a major mistake regarding a starting QB that was far from typographical. While I do enjoy your write-ups for what they're worth, I have extreme difficulty in reading into your analysis any further. BOL to you, sir.

[low Q]

I mean, truthfully, your Dolphins pick speaks for itself. Furthermore, I couldn't resist in pointing out a major mistake regarding a starting QB that was far from typographical. While I do enjoy your write-ups for what they're worth, I have extreme difficulty in reading into your analysis any further. BOL to you, sir.

A lot of guys were on the Fins last night - btw, proper spelling is over-rated, I think we all knew who he was talking about....... get em on Sunday boys!

[duwork]

A lot of guys were on the Fins last night - btw, proper spelling is over-rated, I think we all knew who he was talking about....... get em on Sunday boys!

As I said - "Far from typographical". Nice downplay on the spelling, it really is a great display of your ignorance; it's an absolute misunderstanding of the name which raises my question as to how much Maxlock actually follows and knows the sport. It seems to me like a handicapping service outsourced to India, as he consistently refers to himself as "we". Aside from the fact the Dolphins were a square play, you're right, everyone was on them. BOL tailing this capper; I can't wait to watch this thread go up in flames...

[duwork]

And before it begins to come that "I'm jealous" or hi-jacking his thread; let my point out that my hostility stems from watching helpless followers fearlessly tail someone who has done what I've pointed out. The reason I raise issue is because the SBRforum is about winning as a whole, as a group. And there is nothing worse than listening to someone who doesn't know what the f*ck they are saying. BOL to you all...

[Maxlock]

And before it begins to come that "I'm jealous" or hi-jacking his thread; let my point out that my hostility stems from watching helpless followers fearlessly tail someone who has done what I've pointed out. The reason I raise issue is because the SBRforum is about winning as a whole, as a group. And there is nothing worse than listening to someone who doesn't know what the f*ck they are saying. BOL to you all...

5-2-1 Last week wasn't quite good enough for you? I misspelled Cutler's first name so that makes me an incapable handicapper? My Dolphins-Bears write up was pretty spot on for the most part. Most of it was centered around Cutler not being able to produce. Well Cutler only had 156 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT, and 3 sacks. There were at least 2 passes that had INT written all over them but the DB couldn't hold on. Where I went wrong on this game was that i though Thigpen could be somewhat productive. He clearly was not ready to be a starter this game, although Brandon Marshall dropped two passes and going out with an injury in the second quarter proved to be insurmountable for Miami's offense. Unfortunately, Miami could not contain Matt Forte when he bounced his runs out to the outside and their inability to stop short slants for key third down pickups.

That being said, this is just one game out of the 6 I have this week. I'm looking forward to a successful 5 game slate Sunday. So with all due respect duwork, don't come on here telling writing what an awful handicapper I am after just the first game of week 11. Following my 5-2 Week 10 and being 35-17-5 on the season.

[big0mar]

5-2-1 Last week wasn't quite good enough for you? I misspelled Cutler's first name so that makes me an incapable handicapper? My Dolphins-Bears write up was pretty spot on for the most part. Most of it was centered around Cutler not being able to produce. Well Cutler only had 156 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT, and 3 sacks. There were at least 2 passes that had INT written all over them but the DB couldn't hold on. Where I went wrong on this game was that i though Thigpen could be somewhat productive. He clearly was not ready to be a starter this game, although Brandon Marshall dropped two passes and going out with an injury in the second quarter proved to be insurmountable for Miami's offense. Unfortunately, Miami could not contain Matt Forte when he bounced his runs out to the outside and their inability to stop short slants for key third down pickups. That being said, this is just one game out of the 6 I have this week. I'm looking forward to a successful 5 game slate Sunday. So with all due respect duwork, don't come on here telling writing what an awful handicapper I am after just the first game of week 11. Following my 5-2 Week 10 and being 35-17-5 on the season.

That isn't documented, so why are you citing it? Just cite your 5-3 overall record.

[duwork]

That isn't documented, so why are you citing it? Just cite your 5-3 overall record.

Thank you, Omar. BTW, you're 4-2-1 documented, correct? Please just state your doc. record, not what we cannot see. I was 212-3-1 in 2002-2004.

[Maxlock]

Thank you, Omar. BTW, you're 4-2-1 documented, correct? Please just state your doc. record, not what we cannot see. I was 212-3-1 in 2002-2004.

I really hope you'll have something good to say Monday, following yet another winning Sunday I'll have. As much as you'd love to diminish my winnings, I'm 5-2-1 since joining this forum last week, not 4-2-1, get it right. 0-1 to start week 11, with 5 games remaining on the board.

[Smogs]

Good luck today Max, fantastic write ups and i like your angles

[Maxlock]

A 3 win 3 loss week to close off the Sunday. Seeing the Jets blow a double digit lead in the fourth quarter to blow the 7 point spread was a bit disappointing.

WINS: Green Bay -3 over Minnesota
Atlanta -3 over St. Louis
Buffalo +5.5 over Cincy

Losses: Miami -1.5 over Chicago
San Francisco -3 over Tampa Bay
NY Jets -7 over Houston

Our play on Monday Night Football: San Diego at Denver +10
Pick Denver +10
Write up to follow Monday afternoon.
Season Record following Sundays game: 38-20-6 ATS

[low Q]

A 3 win 3 loss week to close off the Sunday. Seeing the Jets blow a double digit lead in the fourth quarter to blow the 7 point spread was a bit disappointing.

WINS: Green Bay -3 over Minnesota
Atlanta -3 over St. Louis
Buffalo +5.5 over Cincy

Losses: Miami -1.5 over Chicago
San Francisco -3 over Tampa Bay
NY Jets -7 over Houston

Our play on Monday Night Football: San Diego at Denver +10
Pick Denver +10
Write up to follow Monday afternoon.
Season Record following Sundays game: 38-20-6 ATS

I only see Denver at +8.5

[daddyv]

if im not mistaken...its 8-5-1

[Maxlock]

Right now it looks like I'll have two plays on Thanksgiving Thursday. I'll post them and the rest of Sunday's games Tomorrow noon.

[Maxlock]

Thanksgiving Thursday: Lines off of Sportsbook.com

1) New England -6.5 over Detroit
2) NY Jets -9 over Cincinnati

Analysis to follow... Sunday's plays to follow after completion of these two games, as I want to gather as much information as possible before stating my plays.. Since joining this site: I went 5-2-1 in week 10 and 3-4 week 11. Week 11 was my only losing week this entire season. I'm looking forward to bouncing back this week and getting back on a roll. Season record thus far is a very solid 38-21-6 ATS. BOL to all Pats and Jets backers. Happy Thanksgiving!!

[JMobile]

Thanksgiving Thursday: Lines off of Sportsbook.com

1) New England -7 over Detroit
2) NY Jets -9 over Cincinnati

Analysis to follow... Sunday's plays to follow after completion of these two games, as I want to gather as much information as possible before stating my plays.. Since joining this site: I went 5-2-1 in week 10 and 3-4 week 11. Week 11 was my only losing week this entire season. I'm looking forward to bouncing back this week and getting back on a roll. Season record thus far is a very solid 38-21-6 ATS. BOL to all Pats and Jets backers. Happy Thanksgiving!!

I was looking for a Parlay and I have to go for Pats and Bengals on that day.

[Jimmy Darmody]

Might wanna line shop a bit more if you like those sides,

best of luck anyways.

[herts9]

Thanksgiving Thursday: Lines off of Sportsbook.com

1) New England -7 over Detroit
2) NY Jets -9 over Cincinnati

Analysis to follow... Sunday's plays to follow after completion of these two games, as I want to gather as much information as possible before stating my plays.. Since joining this site: I went 5-2-1 in week 10 and 3-4 week 11. Week 11 was my only losing week this entire season. I'm looking forward to bouncing back this week and getting back on a roll. Season record thus far is a very solid 38-21-6 ATS. BOL to all Pats and Jets backers. Happy Thanksgiving!!

i think NE covers easily. nothing beats brady on a big stage.

the parlay i chose was NE -6.5/NO -2.5.

i don't buy jon ******* kitna being good. i've seen him here in cincy and he had flashes of brilliance...like a shiny nickel in a mountain of garbage. dez is a playmaker, as is austin, but they don't get it going against the saints.

NE would like to win since they have NY next week. can't afford a 2 game swing in the standings, potentially. NE wins this one 34-17.

not touching the bengals/jets game..but if i had to, i'd be on sanchez and co. bengals secondary is watered down tissue paper. jets may hang 60 on them. problem is, if the offense decides to play up to their potential, they could score 50 too....but on the jet defense, i don't think so.

BOL this week! here's for some turkey day cash!

[Maxlock]

i think NE covers easily. nothing beats brady on a big stage. the parlay i chose was NE -6.5/NO -2.5. i don't buy jon ******* kitna being good. i've seen him here in cincy and he had flashes of brilliance...like a shiny nickel in a mountain of garbage. dez is a playmaker, as is austin, but they don't get it going against the saints. NE would like to win since they have NY next week. can't afford a 2 game swing in the standings, potentially. NE wins this one 34-17. not touching the bengals/jets game..but if i had to, i'd be on sanchez and co. bengals secondary is watered down tissue paper. jets may hang 60 on them. problem is, if the offense decides to play up to their potential, they could score 50 too....but on the jet defense, i don't think so. BOL this week! here's for some turkey day cash!

New England-Detroit Analysis

You make some very good points there. I have the same sort of score prediction with New England beating Detroit 34-17. The last few weeks the Patriots have had an excellent successful combination of run/pass plays. RB Ben Jarvis Green has averaged at least 4.5 cards a carry in 3 out of the last 4 games. Detroit ranks 26th in rush yards allowed while giving up 130 yards on the ground. Offensively rookie Jahvid Best has been a disappointment this year while battling turf toe throughout the year. Detroit averages 80 yards on the ground which ranks 31st in the league. Detroit may find some success through the air as the Patriots give up 289 yards via air and are ranked 31st. I believe that number is really scewed as the Patriots have played against many good/great QBs: Carson Palmer week 1, Mark Sanchez week 2, Chad Henne raked up most of 305 yards in garbage time, week 4, Joe Flacco week 6, Philip Rivers week 7, Brett Favre week 8, Ben Roethlisberger week 10, Peyton Manning week 11. The Patriots arguable have the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far.

Detroit has an underrated defensive line that has had some success putting pressure on the opposing QB. Not to worry, Tom Brady gets rid of the ball very quick to his agile receivers with many of the yards being after the catch.

Detroit has lost the last 6 Thanksgiving games and they just aren't there yet to compete with the likes of New England. Coach Belichick has vowed that the Patriots will not take the Lions lightly. Patriots 34 Lions 17. The Patriots on a big stage with Tom Brady are the pick here at -6.5.

New York Jets-Cincinnati Analysis

Before delving into this game. I believe this game has the potential to turn very ugly with Cincy taking a beating. With 7 losses on the season, Cincinnati essentially knows that they're season is virtually over. Although I may see them giving it one last gasped in front of a national audience on Thanksgiving Thursday. Last week I wrote up that I liked how the Jets matched up against the Texans. Well for the most part my assessment was correct as Andre Johnson was virtually eliminated from the game and Matt Shaub was extremely limited through 3 quarters. The The jets opened up a 16 point fourth quarter lead only to blow the lead, but eventually win. Its been reported that Darrelle Revis will cover Terrell Owens in this game. I expect Revis to shut down T.O as he did with Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson the past two weeks. While T.O will be shut down, Antonio Cromartie will put the clamps on Ocho Cinco. The Jets rank 2nd against the run. Unlike last week where they faced a good runner and pass catcher in Arian Foster, the same can not be said for the Bengals running game. Jets 31 Bengals 16 NY Jets -9 are the play here.

[Eric22174]

Good luck.

The 7.5 "hook" is going to bite everyone in the arse when they take the Pat's.

[duwork]

Lions are the play here - bottom line.

[ChileCheese]

Maxwell,
Im just curious if you can source or cite Belichik's comments concerning Thursdays game, and how they will not take DET lightly.... I do believe that to be key as well.

[Maxlock]

Maxwell, Im just curious if you can source or cite Belichik's comments concerning Thursdays game, and how they will not take DET lightly.... I do believe that to be key as well.

Sure thing. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...atriotsletdown

[herts9]

Love it. You go hoodie