Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

[dwang0725]

Let go Pitt! I really think they come out and take care of business at home tonight. BOL to everyone on em.

[CROANT]

I took PIT but I fear the Polamalu injury could keep this closer than expected. Let's hope not.

[Maxlock]

I took PIT but I fear the Polamalu injury could keep this closer than expected. Let's hope not.

I don't think Carolina is a team that can take advantage of this. Carolina has a solid running game but they are going against the #1 run defense in the league. As my analysis pointed out. This year Pittsburgh defense is only giving up 3.0 yards per carry. Last year, Polamalu played 5 regular season games in which Pitt gave up on avgerage 3.6 yards per carry to running backs. In the 11 games Polamalu was out teams averaged 3.9 yards per rush against the Pittsburgh defense.

You can read my analysis I had on this game for more insight.

[martinmobley]

Good call!

Ugly game, but we still pulled it off fairly easy.

[KGB]

1st post on SBR. Max being following u for a while. Thanks for your hard work and excellent write-ups. With you on the Ravens game have some concerns with the Steelers. Carolina is a bad team yes, but they are 4-1 in the last 5 as a dog of more than 10.5 pts, steelers on the other hand are 1-4 in the last 5 as a favorite of more than 10.5 pts. I've been struggling with this question for a while, do any of these streaks or statistics matter, or is it strictly on the skill level? When you cap a game what do u weigh most streaks, statistics, or players at the skill positions? Thanks again and keep up the good work.

[Maxlock]

1st post on SBR. Max being following u for a while. Thanks for your hard work and excellent write-ups. With you on the Ravens game have some concerns with the Steelers. Carolina is a bad team yes, but they are 4-1 in the last 5 as a dog of more than 10.5 pts, steelers on the other hand are 1-4 in the last 5 as a favorite of more than 10.5 pts. I've been struggling with this question for a while, do any of these streaks or statistics matter, or is it strictly on the skill level? When you cap a game what do u weigh most streaks, statistics, or players at the skill positions? Thanks again and keep up the good work.

The hard part about capping games is figuring about HOW MUCH you should weigh certain things such as: stats, records, trends, revenge factor, home field advantage, vegas factor, divisional game or non divisional, must win situations, player match-ups, among other psychological factors that may play into the outcome of the game.

It really comes down to the game at hand. For example if you're capping a divisional game and you want to use trends as one of your tools that will go into your final decision making then you could look at things like 1) a coaches record against divisional opponents their second time around playing them. Some coaches do an excellent job of motivating their team for divisional games. The thing with trends that I personally don't like therefore don't put much stock in them is that many trends are grouped into several seasons. Well three years from now there's a lot of different players on that team, so you can argue that the trends aren't reliable.

To answer your question when I cap games I put the most weight on player matchups coupled with the fact that I try and figure out motivational factors. It's pretty clear If a team goes into a game disinterested or nonchalant, then they'll get demolished. So you have to determine what a team has to play for? Now, just because a team is out of the playoff race does not mean they'll quit on the season. As far as match-ups go I look at how a team's offensive line match up against the the other teams defensive line, WR's vs. corners, running game vs run stop, and so on.

As far as the Steelers go and their trend of 1-4 ATS when favored by more than 10.5 points I don't put much stock into that simply because the overall strenght of this Steelers team is way more than the Panthers can handle. As I wrote in the Steelers-Panthers write up, the Steelers rank towards the very top in QB pressure vs Carolina who are one of the worst in Qb protection. The Panthers will want to run the ball, but with what success? The Steelers give up 3.0 yards per carry. This will result in third and longs for the Panthers. Bad news for them as the Steelers are one of the best in not allowing 3rd down conversions.

As far as trends go, although its very limited here's one this season that I'm liking which favors the Steelers:
Pittsburgh is coming off its 4th defeat of the season at the hands of the Jets. Here's how the Steelers have responded following their three previous defeats:
Week 4 lost to Baltimore (week 5 was a bye..)
Week 6 they beat Cleveland 28-10
Week 8 lost to New Orleans
Week 9 they beat Cincinnati 27-21 (most of Cincinnati points were in the 4th quarter in desperation mode)
Week 10 lost to new England
Week 11 they beat Oakland 35-3
Week 15 lose to NYJ
Week 16 ???

All in all I'm pretty confident with the Steelers -14 tonight.

[HiTMaNN]

How much did that cost you? You should always put associated MLs with the spreads, otherwise, and you could already argue it is, you're aren't being honest about what's going on with records ATS, ROI, etc.

I like Baltimore too, I'm on them -3 (-130)

Best of luck.

I use a local book so when I wager a bet I am betting with credit essentially, so when he writes NO juice next to the teams spread it is the normal (-110). You are more then happy to check out my spreadsheet in my signature I write all the juice in there and work out how much I am risking.

See here is a bet I took for ATL


Atlanta Falcons
Spread -3 (+105)
$300

and here is my bet for the Ravens

Baltimore Ravens
Spread -4 (-105)
$400

So in the Falcons bet I wrote $300 so that means I am wanting to win $300 but the Juice is +105 so with that bet I will get $315

on the Baltimore Raven's spread I am wanting to win $400 but IF I lose I will lose $420 because the juice.


and here is my spreadsheet http://hitmann.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[KGB]

Really appreciate your response.

[jagermeister1]

Good luck. I'll be with you on this tonight. Small wager though.

[BennyFang]

I definitely think you hit on something regarding Steelers' response after a loss this season. Through the years and during each season, I see teams develop a "rhythm" like that of the Steelers after a loss this year. Combine that with motivational factors and look for opportunities. Some teams are so mediocre, they will have a greater rendency to come out flat the next week.....and yes much of that is coaching. The better teams can buck the so called "trap" games. What is Carolina's motivation here? The had a nice win in their farewell home game, now they have a short week to go play a motivated team in adverse conditions. Not to mention, they wouldn't mind securing a #1 draft pick to fill an area of need....a qb from Stanford. Combine that with the matchups and I don't know that the Panthers will score more than once if that. I could see something like a 31-7 score.

Because of these situations, I like to play ML parlays (or teasers) the last 2 or 3 weeks of the season.....when I can cross the 3 and 7. Seven to ten point favorites on teams with motivation are nice.....Pats, Chargers, Bucs, Saints, Jags seem to fit this week.

[BennyFang]

...well Saints would be a tease the other way!

[Maxlock]

...well Saints would be a tease the other way!

Nicely written on Pitt.

For MNF Atlanta vs New Orleans, right now I'm leaning the Saints but hopeing that spread gets to +3, if it stays 2.5 the ML is a strong possibility. I'll get to that game later on though..

[BennyFang]

Thanks Max.....look forward to your picks. I convinced myself to put another unit on Pitt.

[DDT]

Thanks Max, GL

[bigjah15]

max agree with u on ravens. i took 5 team parlay
chargers -7.5
cowboys -6.5
patriots -8
ravens -3.5
bucs -6

[OnlyMayo]

[bigjah15]

[Palcsi]

Thank you Maxlock for the Pitsbourgh pick...i used all of my points for your picks:

lets get $$

[martinmobley]

Good luck tonight guys! Thanks for your hard work Max, regardless of the outcome. I'm also on SDSU for a small wager. (on my iPhone and don't want to get into an explanation) anyways!! Let's keep the streak alive!!

[martinmobley]

Another great call. You da man Max... It's been a fun run for me since about 3pm Sunday afternoon. Atlanta, Jets ML, Jets w/points, Packers, Bears, Boise St, SDSU, Pittsburgh allllll good. Let's keep it going and we'll have a very Merry Christmas!!

[Maxlock]

TNF: Steelers-Panthers Analysis: PICK PITTSBURGH -14

I'll get into this more indepth , but on paper this game has blowout written all over it. A few injury updates for the Steelers include the return of TE Heath Miller to the lineup, while the status of Troy Polamulu is not known at this time. It has been reported that Polamalu was seen walking around with no noticeable limp so hopefully we will play. The absense of Troy Polamalu would worry me if the Steelers were playing a solid playoff contending team, but not to worry Carolina is easily one of the worst teams in the league with only two wins on the season. I dug deep into the games Pittsburgh played last year with and without safety Polamalu. Here's what I found: The 5 games Polamalu played they gave up on average 3.6 yards per carry against the run and only 12.8 points against per game in which Troy played. Then I looked at the 11 games Polamalu did not play due to injury. Without Polamalu the SteeOlers gave up 3.9 yards per carry, not a huge difference over the 3.6 BUT they gave up on average 22.8 points against without Polamalu. This is something to keep in mind if Polamalu is out for an extended period of time with the playoffs on the horizon. While it won't hurt them this week as they face a rookie QB and vastly underachieving Panthers team.

I could really see this being an ugly game for Carolina. The fact that they have rookie Jimmy Clausen at QB will certainly not help. Clausen has 2 TDs and 8 INTs on the season along with 8 fumbles. The Steelers will feast on this young QB playing in a cold weather game in Pittsburgh as the Steelers bring one of the most ferocious defenses led by linebackers James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison. To outline one of the biggest mismatches of this game, Pittsburgh is tied for 4th in the league with 40 sacks and 3rd in forces fumbles on the season. They should easily get to Clausen time and time again as Carolina gives up the 2nd most QB sacks and the 3rd most QB hits.

The only hope Carolina has is if they can establish some sort of run with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. I highly doubt that this will happen. Pittsburgh is ranked 1st in run defense and only gives up 3.0 yards per carry. This will set up Clausen in third and long situations which will play into the hands of Pittsburgh defense where the excel in rushing the passer and are great in not allowing 3rd down conversions. Pittsburgh ranks in at 3rd in the league at 35% third down conversions allowed.

For Pittsburgh, on the offensive side of the ball their weakness is the offensive line. For this matchup I don't see it being a liability as Carolina is only 19th in the league in sacks. Carolina is 10th worst in the league in terms of rush yards allowed per game. RB Rashard Mendenhall will have a solid game which will allow Big Ben to have play action success to Mike Wallace, Heath Miller and Hines Ward.

Pittsburgh coming off its 4th defeat of the season at the hands of the Jets. Here's how the Steelers have responded following their three previous defeats:
Week 4 lost to Baltimore (week 5 was a bye..)
Week 6 they beat Cleveland 28-10
Week 8 lost to New Orleans
Week 9 they beat Cincinnati 27-21 (most of Cincinnati points were in the 4th quarter in desperation mode)
Week 10 lost to new England
Week 11 they beat Oakland 35-3
Week 15 lose to NYJ
Week 16 ???

The bottom line is, unless Pittsburgh epically fails to emotionally show up for this game I just don't see how they wont beat them by over 20 points. I can't imagine Carolina scoring more than 10 points in this game. A shutout would not surprise me at all. This is a home nationally televised game for Pitt in which they are still fighting to keep the division lead and the 2nd seed in the AFC. I'm figuring Carolina will take a 30-3. Take Pittsburgh -14 (if you're book has 14.5 buy it down to 14 just to be safe)

I predicted a final score of 30-3...someone tell me what the final score ended

[MickChunky]

You pretty much predicted everything that happened on both sides of the ball!

[gilbert91016]

[hoku808pc]

Great call tonight Maxlock... Appreciate all the work you put in... Big Mahalos to you...

[Maxlock]

Great call tonight Maxlock... Appreciate all the work you put in... Big Mahalos to you...

It's nothing too much but thanks man. That's what happens when you do thorough research it pays off, literally. Now on to the next one..I'll have a play up for Saturday's game tommorrow morning.

Cheers to those who took Pitt tonight.

[hoku808pc]

Sounds good to me... Will be checking in tomorrow for sure... Aloha

[shopbar picks]

Said before will say it again. YOU DA MAN. Thank you!

[Maxlock]

Saturday Night Football: odds off sportsbook.com as of 1:00 am 12/24/10

Dallas -7 over Arizona

*I haven't seen this game at -7.5, but if by chance you do then buy it down to 7.
*Get this spread asap, as it might rise to 7.5 before gametime.

BOL

[HiTMaNN]

Good call today on the Pitt's pick Max lock!!!!

As always I am with you! I really hope you don't go with the saints I can't go against my Falcon's

Team #1: Dallas Cowboys
Line #1: Spread -7 (-130)
Wager #1: $300 Bought half a Points (Risking $390)

[Maxlock]

Good call today on the Pitt's pick Max lock!!!! As always I am with you! I really hope you don't go with the saints I can't go against my Falcon's Team #1: Dallas Cowboys Line #1: Spread -7 (-130) Wager #1: $300 Bought half a Points (Risking $390)

I'm not liking your sportsbook man. Which one do you use btw? Seems like they always have an extra half to a full point extra on the favorite.

So far I'm liking the Saints MNF. Still looking at that game and watching how the spread will move.

[HiTMaNN]

I'm not liking your sportsbook man. Which one do you use btw? Seems like they always have an extra half to a full point extra on the favorite.

So far I'm liking the Saints MNF. Still looking at that game and watching the spread how the spread will move.

Yah his lines aren't that bad but he is a local I like that if I win I can get the cash within the hour. I am assuming he makes this line to give him an edge on everyone else.

[Palcsi]

I predicted a final score of 30-3...someone tell me what the final score ended

Thank you for the great bet

I won nearly 450 ppoints with your great bet

[Palcsi]

Saturday Night Football: odds off sportsbook.com as of 1:00 am 12/24/10

Dallas -7 over Arizona

*I haven't seen this game at -7.5, but if by chance you do then buy it down to 7.
*Get this spread asap, as it might rise to 7.5 before gametime.

BOL

I am in again Lets have $$$ again

[Palcsi]

I predicted a final score of 30-3...someone tell me what the final score ended

The endscore was 27-3

So only 3 points away from your prediction...great

[dwang0725]

Easy win. On the cowgirls as well. Also have them in a 2 team tease, Pitt -8/Dall -1. Looking forward to the rest of your sunday picks. Have a Merry Christmas!