SSK's NFL Thread

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Yeah I said Miami was NOT a lock. Obviously my LOCK picks don't lose like that. You know my LOCK record.


I see you are leaning and even betting some on the Falcons this weekend. Despite knowing I am on the Rams and I am 8-0 ATS this year. I hope you don't pick Atlanta in the contest, or that is most likely going to cost you the week because as you know I'm on the Rams.

Hmm, 8-0 record doesn't bother me at all. Soon enough you'll be .500 on those ATS picks it'll will slowly creep up on you. If you call yourself such a great bettor then we both know that you won't stay undefeated on your ATS picks but I know your not a great capper, your just average at best. I've been in this game longer then you probably and whether you win or lose this weekends contest it won't bother me because in the end I ALWAYS WIN!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

P.s. Good luck with that Rams pick (even though you insist you don't need any luck). Just waiting for the right price and line and i'll be on Atlanta most likely this weekend.

[ssk13809]

Hmm, 8-0 record doesn't bother me at all. Soon enough you'll be .500 on those ATS picks it'll will slowly creep up on you. If you call yourself such a great bettor then we both know that you won't stay undefeated on your ATS picks but I know your not a great capper, your just average at best. I've been in this game longer then you probably and whether you win or lose this weekends contest it won't bother me because in the end I ALWAYS WIN!

You sound like the guy who told me no way I even hit 70% (24+ plays) on my ATS picks in this thread. He bet me 200 points on that. I jumped on it because I can hit 80+% on LOCK and "Near Lock" picks. I'm 8-0 now. These days, from "no way", he is saying "you probably can".

Though I've been betting really for 2-3 years, I've watched the NFL since 2000.

[ssk13809]

P.s. Good luck with that Rams pick (even though you insist you don't need any luck). Just waiting for the right price and line and i'll be on Atlanta most likely this weekend.

Last week we had this "disagreement discussion", do you remember? It was on the Bills. You took Lions ML, I took the Bills ML. I tried to 1st explain why Bills were the clear choice. You didn't understand. Then I simply told you to "watch the game and come back to me". And the game did the rest of the talking for me, as the Bills were in control all game and never trailed, and eventually won.


So please, don't start with me again. I'm not going to even bother explaining why Rams are the right pick here. Just "watch the game". The 2 teams I've made the most money of of this year are the Falcons and the Rams. So I know what I'm doing here.



That's all I can recommend to people like you who don't quite understand football.

[ssk13809]

And the only one heading back to .500 will be you betting these "totals" which are more luck than anything. Even worse, you bet these "Half Lines" or "Quarter Lines", which is even more luck orientated. It's actually hilarious you bet these things, when you realize only a little bit of luck can change the entire outcome of a quarter or a half. Luck is minimized long-term, and the best we can do is at least bet full games.

But looks like you on the other hand are trying to maximize luck in your plays.

[ssk13809]

Also, if anyone else wants explanations on any of my picks, you can ask. I don't write write-ups unless asked. And trust me, I have good reasons on all of my picks.


Here they all are again


Raiders +290
Risk 4 to Win 11.6

Seahawks +450
Risk 2 to Win 9


Patriots -200
Risk 10 to Win 5


Rams +3
Risk 5.3 to Win 5


Titans -7
Jaguars -125

Risk 2 to Win 4.9


Rams +145
Eagles -180

Risk 4 to Win 11.2


Ravens -550
Titans -325
Cheifs -380

Risk 5 to Win 4.8

Raiders +7.5
Ravens -10
Eagles -3
Titans -7

Risk 2 to Win 22.5



Though as I've said 2-3 times now, I'm not as confident as I usually am this week. No LOCKS (and they really help me a lot every week, so without a LOCK I'm hurting), and only 1 other ATS Play (Which also help me since I"m 8-0 this year ATS). Lines just sharp this week.

[ScottLocke]

You sound like the guy who told me no way I even hit 70% (24+ plays) on my ATS picks in this thread. He bet me 200 points on that. I jumped on it because I can hit 80+% on LOCK and "Near Lock" picks. I'm 8-0 now. These days, from "no way", he is saying "you probably can".

Though I've been betting really for 2-3 years, I've watched the NFL since 2000.

I said you'll probably go 70% cause you're off to an 8-0 start. If we started over there is no way you would go 70%, and there is still a good chance you won't go 70% with an 8-0 start. Its really just amazing how good you think you are, you're gonna learn the hard way soon. Hopefully you at least can man up to it then instead of coming up with excuses, which is what I have a feeling you will do.

WHat are your ATS picks for our bet this week anyway? You still have to go 9-7 through the last 16 picks to win. Not gonna be easy.

[ScottLocke]

Also, I can't believe you continue to lay >300 in ML picks, there is no value in those. As you can already see you lost big MLs twice this year already. Vegas juices the ML much more than ATS picks so I don't even know why such a good capper as yourself would keep betting MLs since you lose so much value in them.

[ssk13809]

I said you'll probably go 70% cause you're off to an 8-0 start. If we started over there is no way you would go 70%, and there is still a good chance you won't go 70% with an 8-0 start. Its really just amazing how good you think you are, you're gonna learn the hard way soon. Hopefully you at least can man up to it then instead of coming up with excuses, which is what I have a feeling you will do.

WHat are your ATS picks for our bet this week anyway? You still have to go 9-7 through the last 16 picks to win. Not gonna be easy.

Actually I only need to go 8-7. I'm actually 8-0-1. So I only need 15 more plays, and you said earlier that 16-7 was good enough (it's like 69.6% or something) .

And why would we start over now lol?

Like I said Scott, 80% would be a fair bet. Like maybe -110. But the bet I took here was like a -210, but still getting a fair pay out. In other words, you got ripped off. You took a +210 bet, while risking as much as you can possibly gain.



Well I only have 1 ATS play as you can see. I mean, we aren't betting ATS parlays are we? So that leaves us with only Rams +3 for this week. Yeah didn't like much, no LOCKS at all, so you're lucky.

[ssk13809]

Also, I can't believe you continue to lay >300 in ML picks, there is no value in those. As you can already see you lost big MLs twice this year already. Vegas juices the ML much more than ATS picks so I don't even know why such a good capper as yourself would keep betting MLs since you lose so much value in them.

Are you talking about underdog >300 ML picks? What's wrong with those? I think I'm 1-0 this year betting >300 straight underdog ML picks. So not disappointed.

As far as parlays are concerned, they aren't straight >300 ML bets, and in the end the Parlay is like -120 or so at worst. So it's not an actual straight >300 ML favorite bet, which yes can cost. But ML Parlays aren't so bad. I like this week's "Favorite ML Parlay". I think all those 3 teams win for sure.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Can you please give me a write-up on why you like the Rams since I know nothing about football and I've been watching football since the Packers beat the Patriots in the '97 Super Bowl.

Anyways give me a write up on the Rams, i'm curious.

[ssk13809]

Can you please give me a write-up on why you like the Rams since I know nothing about football and I've been watching football since the Packers beat the Patriots in the '97 Super Bowl.

Anyways give me a write up on the Rams, i'm curious.

1. Rams are one of those teams who play "extra" good at home. They are 4-1 at home and only loss was the fluke loss in Week 1 against Arizona. They have beaten 2 most likely playoff bound teams at home (Seahawks and Chargers), and 3/4 home wins have been easy 10+ wins.

Falcons are also one of those teams who are "extra" good at home. Since this game is on the road, they are not going to play as good as their 7-2 record indicates. This should be clear. Overall, they are 2-2 on the road, including losses to a Ben-Less Steelers and Vick-Less Eagles.


Overall, Rams have previous home/road performance edge over the Falcons.


2. Rams are a good defense. Falcons are a good offense. Rams have a strong run offense, Falcons strong run defense. Rams WRs are banged up, Falcons secondary sucks and Rams at least have a good QB who plays well at home. So the game edge is pretty even, but I give once again the slight edge to St. Louis at home. Matt Ryan doesn't play nearly as well on the road, and the Rams have had a lot of success on both sides of the ball at home. In their past 4 home games, they have scored 20+ each time while not allowing 20 in either of those contests.


3. The public is all over the Falcons. Expected. They played 3 home games, all of which they were probable to win imo. Now they welcome back to the road.


I could keep going. But I think we get the point. Rams win this one.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Nice write-up, I'll give you that.

[ScottLocke]

Actually I only need to go 8-7. I'm actually 8-0-1. So I only need 15 more plays, and you said earlier that 16-7 was good enough (it's like 69.6% or something) .

And why would we start over now lol?

Like I said Scott, 80% would be a fair bet. Like maybe -110. But the bet I took here was like a -210, but still getting a fair pay out. In other words, you got ripped off. You took a +210 bet, while risking as much as you can possibly gain.



Well I only have 1 ATS play as you can see. I mean, we aren't betting ATS parlays are we? So that leaves us with only Rams +3 for this week. Yeah didn't like much, no LOCKS at all, so you're lucky.

Wow, just wow if you think you were -210 to hit 70% over 24 plays. Utterly amazing lol. You are in for a rude awakening lol.

[ScottLocke]

Are you talking about underdog >300 ML picks? What's wrong with those? I think I'm 1-0 this year betting >300 straight underdog ML picks. So not disappointed.

As far as parlays are concerned, they aren't straight >300 ML bets, and in the end the Parlay is like -120 or so at worst. So it's not an actual straight >300 ML favorite bet, which yes can cost. But ML Parlays aren't so bad. I like this week's "Favorite ML Parlay". I think all those 3 teams win for sure.

Whats the difference if they are a parlay or straight?? Parlays are even worse actually, they juice your bet even more. Just look at the Ravens game right now. Ravens are -600 and Panthers are +450 at most books. Thats 150cents of juice!!! No way you can beat that long term. If you like the Ravens that much, you take the Ravens -10.5 for -110, obv you won't win as often, but when you do, you win more.

[ssk13809]

Whats the difference if they are a parlay or straight?? Parlays are even worse actually, they juice your bet even more. Just look at the Ravens game right now. Ravens are -600 and Panthers are +450 at most books. Thats 150cents of juice!!! No way you can beat that long term. If you like the Ravens that much, you take the Ravens -10.5 for -110, obv you won't win as often, but when you do, you win more.

What's the difference between a parlay or a straight lol? Don't you think the losses would be more drastic if I had Ravens -600 ML and they lost versus Ravens -600 ML in a 3 Team Parlay and they lost. Just take the NYG last week. I had them on a 3 Team ML Parlay. Super surprising loss, but it was minimized due to the parlay. While if I had them on a ML, I would have lost much more, assuming the gains were same on the Parlay and Straight-Bet. (Otherwise the Straight-Bet isn't worth anything)

Besides, I don't see either of the Ravens, Cheifs (at home against ARI), or Titans losing this week. I should win that ML parlay period.


As for juice? Who cares, as long as the overall Parlay gives good juice and I feel confident on the 3 picks. Which is the case here. No way Ravens lose against the pathetic Panthers, period.

[ScottLocke]

What's the difference between a parlay or a straight lol? Don't you think the losses would be more drastic if I had Ravens -600 ML and they lost versus Ravens -600 ML in a 3 Team Parlay and they lost. Just take the NYG last week. I had them on a 3 Team ML Parlay. Super surprising loss, but it was minimized due to the parlay. While if I had them on a ML, I would have lost much more, assuming the gains were same on the Parlay and Straight-Bet. (Otherwise the Straight-Bet isn't worth anything)

Besides, I don't see either of the Ravens, Cheifs (at home against ARI), or Titans losing this week. I should win that ML parlay period.


As for juice? Who cares, as long as the overall Parlay gives good juice and I feel confident on the 3 picks. Which is the case here. No way Ravens lose against the pathetic Panthers, period.

[ssk13809]

Honestly, over my time betting, I've learned juice is the most overrated thing.


MLs juice is still very relevant as its the basis of your bets (implied probability).


But for ATS? Juice only matters to "losers". Because it's only if you lose does it become relevant.


For example, Risk 11 to Win 10 on -110. You are winning 10 period. It's only if you lose does the -110 have any special meaning. So only for losers will that "extra 10% loss" count. I'm 8-0 ATS. Do you think I care what the juice is? No. Because I don't lose. So juice only is a concern for "losers" in ATS. Guys finishing in the 50-55% range.


Let me guess ScottLocke, you care about juice ATS

[ScottLocke]

Wow, i'm back to not responding in this thread. Your stupidity has hit epic proportions. This just has to be a level. GL

[big0mar]

This guy makes picks, and if they lose he says they weren't "locks" so they dont count. Classic!

[big0mar]

1. Rams are one of those teams who play "extra" good at home. They are 4-1 at home and only loss was the fluke loss in Week 1 against Arizona. They have beaten 2 most likely playoff bound teams at home (Seahawks and Chargers), and 3/4 home wins have been easy 10+ wins. Falcons are also one of those teams who are "extra" good at home. Since this game is on the road, they are not going to play as good as their 7-2 record indicates. This should be clear. Overall, they are 2-2 on the road, including losses to a Ben-Less Steelers and Vick-Less Eagles. Overall, Rams have previous home/road performance edge over the Falcons. 2. Rams are a good defense. Falcons are a good offense. Rams have a strong run offense, Falcons strong run defense. Rams WRs are banged up, Falcons secondary sucks and Rams at least have a good QB who plays well at home. So the game edge is pretty even, but I give once again the slight edge to St. Louis at home. Matt Ryan doesn't play nearly as well on the road, and the Rams have had a lot of success on both sides of the ball at home. In their past 4 home games, they have scored 20+ each time while not allowing 20 in either of those contests. 3. The public is all over the Falcons. Expected. They played 3 home games, all of which they were probable to win imo. Now they welcome back to the road. I could keep going. But I think we get the point. Rams win this one.

Your entire reasoning is "STL is good at home, ATL isn't very good on the road"

[ssk13809]

This guy makes picks, and if they lose he says they weren't "locks" so they dont count. Classic!

I'm 8-0-1 ATS. Do you think it matters which picks I call locks and which I don't. None of them have lost.

Nonetheless, I'm honest and can't claim 8-0 LOCKS, because only 4 of those did I actually sign as "LOCKS" before the game started. So I'm just 4-0 LOCKS this year.



So what were you saying again? Which picks did I lose PERIOD?




FAIL

[ssk13809]

Your entire reasoning is "STL is good at home, ATL isn't very good on the road"

Forgot the offense vs. defense breakdowns? Or the public play?


Haters gonna hate

[big0mar]

Forgot the offense vs. defense breakdowns? Or the public play? Haters gonna hate

Breakdown?

Rams are a good defense. Falcons are a good offense. Rams have a strong run offense, Falcons strong run defense. Rams WRs are banged up, Falcons secondary sucks and Rams at least have a good QB who plays well at home. So the game edge is pretty even, but I give once again the slight edge to St. Louis at home. Matt Ryan doesn't play nearly as well on the road, and the Rams have had a lot of success on both sides of the ball at home. In their past 4 home games, they have scored 20+ each time while not allowing 20 in either of those contests

Sounds like bullshit to me? Just a generic "good on offense and defense" essay anyone can read on ESPN. No mention of how ATL might use different splits than what STL has seen all year? Or how ATL might decide to shade Babineaux, and adjust their alignments because Goldberg has been awful this year?

But let me guess, if it doesn't win, it wont count?

[ssk13809]

Breakdown?



Sounds like bullshit to me? Just a generic "good on offense and defense" essay anyone can read on ESPN. No mention of how ATL might use different splits than what STL has seen all year? Or how ATL might decide to shade Babineaux, and adjust their alignments because Goldberg has been awful this year?

But let me guess, if it doesn't win, it wont count?

What ATS pick have I lost in my threads that didn't count?

Like I said, haters gonna hate.

[big0mar]

What ATS pick have I lost in my threads that didn't count? Like I said, haters gonna hate.

Miami?

[Speedkills13]

c'mon man. im 13-5 on my last 18 bets, which is 72% and a nice pile of cash. i don't claim to be the worlds greatest capper. things will inevitably even out to some degree by the end of a season. when you're hot...you're hot and its time to play. if you can finish the season 70%+ and make more than 30 picks the rest of the year i'll give ya mad props. but until then, the jury is out. gl. i'll be watching.

[big0mar]

Rest of my picks beginning with tonight's game ML Parlay Dolphins -130 Jaguars -125 Risk 4 to Win 8.7

The close lines ML parlay. ML Parlay Rams +145 Eagles -180 Risk 4 to Win 11.2

The close, but not very close lines ML parlay ML Parlay Ravens -550 Titans -325 Cheifs -380 Risk 5 to Win 4.8

The heavy favorites ML parlay. ATS Parlay Raiders +7.5 Ravens -10 Eagles -3 Dolphins -1.5 Risk 2 to Win 22

The "other" ATS picks parlay

Why aren't those parlay losses mentioned in your record????

[big0mar]

c'mon man. im 13-5 on my last 18 bets, which is 72% and a nice pile of cash. i don't claim to be the worlds greatest capper. things will inevitably even out to some degree by the end of a season. when you're hot...you're hot and its time to play. if you can finish the season 70%+ and make more than 30 picks the rest of the year i'll give ya mad props. but until then, the jury is out. gl. i'll be watching.

He needs to start actually accounting for all the plays he posts before we can even begin to take whatever record he claims seriously.

[Speedkills13]

He needs to start actually accounting for all the plays he posts before we can even begin to take whatever record he claims seriously.

touche my friend....touche.

[ScottLocke]

Why aren't those parlay losses mentioned in your record????

Cause they are parlays not ATS, duhhh lol. If they win though, then they are ATS picks.


You lost a MNF game a few weeks ago Cowboys vs Giants, you had the Cowboys, but that didn't count cause Romo got hurt.... lol

[ssk13809]

Miami?

That was part of a PARLAY


Read my Sig

NFL Games ATS Picks: 8-0-1


"Games ATS Picks" not PARLAYS



And for obvious reasons, I don't mix the Parlay results to ATS Game results. Most obvious reason being the odds of hitting an ATS parlay vs. ATS Game.




So what were you saying again kid? Keep on hatin.


But tell me when you can "Touch" my ATS record % wise.

[ssk13809]

Cause they are parlays not ATS, duhhh lol. If they win though, then they are ATS picks.


You lost a MNF game a few weeks ago Cowboys vs Giants, you had the Cowboys, but that didn't count cause Romo got hurt.... lol

That game was not ATS. It was a straight ML bet.

And it also counted towards my record.

[ssk13809]

He needs to start actually accounting for all the plays he posts before we can even begin to take whatever record he claims seriously.

The parlays are refelcted in my unit count after every week is over.


In fact, every play I've made so far has been reflected in my unit count.




Keep trying. Everything my Signature says is 100% accurate and has counted every single play I have made in my thread from the start.

[ScottLocke]

That was part of a PARLAY


Read my Sig

NFL Games ATS Picks: 8-0-1


"Games ATS Picks" not PARLAYS



And for obvious reasons, I don't mix the Parlay results to ATS Game results. Most obvious reason being the odds of hitting an ATS parlay vs. ATS Game.




So what were you saying again kid? Keep on hatin.


But tell me when you can "Touch" my ATS record % wise.

I think my ATS record is better than yours, but nice try.