SSK's NFL Thread

[ChileCheese]

Isnt your bankroll around $400?
You stated last week it was $300 something.

[ssk13809]

Isnt your bankroll around $400?
You stated last week it was $300 something.

Yes I started at $80, and now its around $400.

Now obviously, I did not do that my betting 5% of my bankroll per bet at most like this thread. So no $1 or $5 bets. The min bet to place was $10, so I couldn't place anything lower than anyways. And some of those MLs early (I won a +330 and +240 Straight ML Plays) had risk $10 and win ____, which gave me a good start. Over here, I did like risk 3%, instead of risk 10% on those underdog MLs, which luckily I won.



But anyways

This thread assumes a very large bankroll (100 units) of like 100k and based on that I place unit amounts with smart money management. So it's legit.

[ssk13809]

Anyways, I got a look at some lines. Tough lines this week. But I do see some good potential. So it will be another profitable week.


Plays to be posted tomorrow

[ChileCheese]

Yes I started at $80, and now its around $400.

Now obviously, I did not do that my betting 5% of my bankroll per bet at most like this thread. So no $1 or $5 bets. The min bet to place was $10, so I couldn't place anything lower than anyways. And some of those MLs early (I won a +330 and +240 Straight ML Plays) had risk $10 and win ____, which gave me a good start. Over here, I did like risk 3%, instead of risk 10% on those underdog MLs, which luckily I won.



But anyways

This thread assumes a very large bankroll (100 units) of like 100k and based on that I place unit amounts with smart money management. So it's legit.

You know bro, I get your point. But please trust.... when you actually want to be $1,000 a game, it becomes much harder. I know in theory it seems you would follow through with the same logic and reason, just add 1 or 2 or 3 Zeros... but things change.

[ssk13809]

You know bro, I get your point. But please trust.... when you actually want to be $1,000 a game, it becomes much harder. I know in theory it seems you would follow through with the same logic and reason, just add 1 or 2 or 3 Zeros... but things change.

How so? Explain. I'd do exactly what I do in this thread. Which is btw different from real life (not picks but betting amounts). I've been cautious betting in this thread, unlike the small amounts in real life, so there is a degree of cautiousness that one would have with a larger amount.

But otherwise, it's all the same.

[onacloud]

Are you going to have your plays posted today or just your leans?

[ssk13809]

Are you going to have your plays posted today or just your leans?

Some plays

And all leans

[ChileCheese]

I do not think its all the same for a multitude of reasons.. but nothing I say will get you to change your disposition, so lets just agree to disagree.
I notice you do not have your Thursday Night play up yet. Are you going with the slight favourite at home again, such as the case was with ATL last week?
I myself think MIA is the right play. I think they finally have their best QB option playing tomorrow. Furthermore, the Bears are 3-1 on the road, but it is deceiving. Their 3 wins have come against teams with a combined 4 wins on the year, and their 1 decent opponent, the NYG, they lost 17-3. I think tomorrow will be another repeat. I bring this up, because I think both teams will revert back to the mean. Miami, being 1-3 at home, is due to win a few more by seasons end.

[BetterBizness]

You know bro, I get your point. But please trust.... when you actually want to be $1,000 a game, it becomes much harder. I know in theory it seems you would follow through with the same logic and reason, just add 1 or 2 or 3 Zeros... but things change.

I respectfully disagree... and thus would AGREE with SSK (for real)... It is not harder in the least to add zero's to a wager and make the same picks...

With YOUR money...

In fact, Chile, if you give me $100,000 this weekend to bet for you I will give you an ENTIRE card of just 4 games that are SURE to come through....at least 3 anyways... probably 2... and in that RARE instance... 1 or 0... But that would never happen... lets be honest...

[BetterBizness]

I do not think its all the same for a multitude of reasons.. but nothing I say will get you to change your disposition, so lets just agree to disagree.
I notice you do not have your Thursday Night play up yet. Are you going with the slight favourite at home again, such as the case was with ATL last week?
I myself think MIA is the right play. I think they finally have their best QB option playing tomorrow. Furthermore, the Bears are 3-1 on the road, but it is deceiving. Their 3 wins have come against teams with a combined 4 wins on the year, and their 1 decent opponent, the NYG, they lost 17-3. I think tomorrow will be another repeat. I bring this up, because I think both teams will revert back to the mean. Miami, being 1-3 at home, is due to win a few more by seasons end.

Good analysis... I'm not so much about the "due" factor, but you think with the talent level, the schedule they have left, and the position they're in, that they SHOULD get more than ONE home win this season... if just from Regression to the mean...

[ssk13809]

I do not think its all the same for a multitude of reasons.. but nothing I say will get you to change your disposition, so lets just agree to disagree.
I notice you do not have your Thursday Night play up yet. Are you going with the slight favourite at home again, such as the case was with ATL last week?
I myself think MIA is the right play. I think they finally have their best QB option playing tomorrow. Furthermore, the Bears are 3-1 on the road, but it is deceiving. Their 3 wins have come against teams with a combined 4 wins on the year, and their 1 decent opponent, the NYG, they lost 17-3. I think tomorrow will be another repeat. I bring this up, because I think both teams will revert back to the mean. Miami, being 1-3 at home, is due to win a few more by seasons end.

Without a doubt I'm leaning on Miami

But you have to remember I only bet ATS picks that I'm 80+% certain to win. That is why I am 8-0. These are highly selective picks, consisting of "Near Locks" (80-90%) and Locks (90+%) picks. Unfortunately I don't think Miami falls in either category. So that would not be an ATS pick.

Could be ML though, as I am less selective there. Will look into the probabilities and so on later today.

[Full Time Hobo]

Good luck SSK.
Eager to see who you are on this week.

[ssk13809]

Leans for the week

Dolphins -1
Bills +5.5
Cowboys -6
Cheifs -8
Texans +7
Jaguars -1
Raiders +7
Ravens -10
GB -3
Titans -7
Rams +3
49ers +3
Seahawks +11.5
Patriots -3
Eagles -3
Broncons +10

[ssk13809]

Like I said guys, tough week.

In fact, I have no LOCK picks this week. 1st week after a while I don't have a LOCK. But remember, I only average 0.8locks/week, so there will be weeks without locks.


Nonetheless, there are some games I really like (All these are from Greek btw)


Raiders +290
Risk 4 to Win 11.6

Seahawks +450
Risk 2 to Win 9


I really like both games. Good value plays, especially Raiders. Seahawks are a hit-miss, but I'll
definitely be including the Raiders in some kind of parlay ATS as well later this week.



Other bets:


Patriots -200
Risk 10 to Win 5

Confident Brady, who hasn't lost at home regular season since 2006, will win. Come on now.


Rams +3
Risk 5.3 to Win 5

Keepin my 8-0 ATS streak going with this pick. It's a "Near Lock".





I will have more plays later this week. Some parlays, and as you know, last weekend my parlays saved the day, so look for them again. Might have another straight-play ATS or ML, but we'll see. I'll probably include my next strongest leans in some parlays.

[ChileCheese]

Im surprised you have not mentioned the Ravens yet. I think they will decimate the Panthers. The panthers can barely put up points as it is, and with over 1 week of rest, I think the Ravens will come close to shutting them out. Furthermore, I think they are angry as fuk about their loss in ATL last week and will be out to prove a point and will probably win by 20+ points.

[Full Time Hobo]

Good luck

What do you think about a teaser this week?

Miami +8 / Miami Chi Over 29 / Ravens Pk

[ssk13809]

Good luck

What do you think about a teaser this week?

Miami +8 / Miami Chi Over 29 / Ravens Pk

Good, though I'd be worried about the over 29 the most. You should've had something else there

[ssk13809]

Im surprised you have not mentioned the Ravens yet. I think they will decimate the Panthers. The panthers can barely put up points as it is, and with over 1 week of rest, I think the Ravens will come close to shutting them out. Furthermore, I think they are angry as fuk about their loss in ATL last week and will be out to prove a point and will probably win by 20+ points.

I've made that pick in most of my contests, so I like it. It just missed the "Near Lock" category. And I definitely will be including it in some parlays.

[ssk13809]

Rest of my picks beginning with tonight's game


ML Parlay

Dolphins -130
Jaguars -125

Risk 4 to Win 8.7

The close lines ML parlay.


ML Parlay

Rams +145
Eagles -180

Risk 4 to Win 11.2

The close, but not very close lines ML parlay

ML Parlay

Ravens -550
Titans -325
Cheifs -380

Risk 5 to Win 4.8


The heavy favorites ML parlay.

ATS Parlay

Raiders +7.5
Ravens -10
Eagles -3
Dolphins -1.5

Risk 2 to Win 22


The "other" ATS picks parlay

[ssk13809]

Overall, you may have noticed I did not high my overall units/game amount even though I said I was. Well that's because I don't like this week as much as usual. So I've kept it low.

Nonetheless, it still should be a profitable week.

[ChileCheese]

good luck buddy.
Link up your contest with D3 too.

[ssk13809]

good luck buddy.
Link up your contest with D3 too.

As I said earlier, there is no point of seeing the link because you cannot see our plays anyways.

But if Mighty Ducks is too embarrassed to tell you the results, I'll keep you updated.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

As I said earlier, there is no point of seeing the link because you cannot see our plays anyways. But if Mighty Ducks is too embarrassed to tell you the results, I'll keep you updated.

Don't worry I won't be to embarrassed.

[SmackdownV]

Glad to see we are on the same side SSK.

Let's GET EM!

[ssk13809]

Glad to see we are on the same side SSK.

Let's GET EM!

Are you talking about Miami? I don't think you posted any other NFL picks.

But yeah, Miami should win. Its not a LOCK (90+%) or a "Near Lock" (80-90%), but it's still a nice pick, I'd probably say 65-70%. It's a good pick.

[SmackdownV]

Are you talking about Miami? I don't think you posted any other NFL picks.

But yeah, Miami should win. Its not a LOCK (90+%) or a "Near Lock" (80-90%), but it's still a nice pick, I'd probably say 65-70%. It's a good pick.

Yep.

Miami game.

[ssk13809]

Thanks for the jinx


Yeah Full Time Hobo I warned about that over/under

[Full Time Hobo]

Thanks for the jinx Yeah Full Time Hobo I warned about that over/under

Yea man luckily i never played it so its all good.
Still lost a chunk on miami though so that was disappointing

[ssk13809]

Yea man luckily i never played it so its all good.
Still lost a chunk on miami though so that was disappointing

I'm getting that back with a new bet.

[Full Time Hobo]

Hope its nothing youre forcing
But good luck regardless

[ssk13809]

Adding these 2 bets to make up Thursday Night. Basically replacing Miami with the Titans, who also I think should cover.

Parlay

Titans -7
Jaguars -125


Risk 2 to Win 4.9



Raiders +7.5
Ravens -10
Titans -7
Eagles -3


Risk 2 To win 22.5

[Full Time Hobo]

Rams -10?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Are you talking about Miami? I don't think you posted any other NFL picks.

But yeah, Miami should win. Its not a LOCK (90+%) or a "Near Lock" (80-90%), but it's still a nice pick, I'd probably say 65-70%. It's a good pick.

Lock

[ssk13809]

Rams -10?

Sorry obviusly I meant Ravens. Same parlay as above, but as I said, Titans instead of Dolphins.

[ssk13809]

Lock

Yeah I said Miami was NOT a lock. Obviously my LOCK picks don't lose like that. You know my LOCK record.


I see you are leaning and even betting some on the Falcons this weekend. Despite knowing I am on the Rams and I am 8-0 ATS this year. I hope you don't pick Atlanta in the contest, or that is most likely going to cost you the week because as you know I'm on the Rams.