SSK's NFL Thread

[turkstock]

NFL comes down to the last minutes over 80% of the games.

[ChileCheese]

ya, everything is last few minutes, and Jags probably win in OT.
How come everything with you is an excuse like the Cowboys game.

[phillybadboy]

thanks for the plays, i'm tailin all

[phillybadboy]

i'm lucky to find this thread, get me out of my hole i'm in

[ssk13809]

ya, everything is last few minutes, and Jags probably win in OT.
How come everything with you is an excuse like the Cowboys game.

It was the NFL amazing play of the year. Come on.


But hey, I'll take that loss. Jaguars played better than I thought. Go to hand it to them.




My day is going to come down to my hometeam Seahawks' game. I'm watching it, closely. Looking good at halftime, but that 4th and 1 near the redzone really hurt us. I think we should've kicked the FG and made it a 20-10 game, oh well.

Seahawks have generally struggled in the 2nd half, but Arizona's offense isn't very good either. I hope there are no TOs in this game, that's generally how the Cardinals score anyways.

[ssk13809]

But how about them Giants?




I have them ML. Is that REALLY the reason I am going to lose a parlay? The other teams have already won. But the Giants losing straight-up? At home? To DALLAS?


I don't believe that is possible.

[turkstock]

plays looking sharp, real sharp - never mind the haters, just keep doing your thing

[ChileCheese]

Are you still sticking with WSH tomorrow?
Is it just because of their bye week? Because the team looks really lost at times, and PHI has looked very very good with Vick at pivot all year.

[SoonerBred]

I went 3-1 with your ML and ATS picks.....I'm not complaining!!! Tell you what....go 3-1 every damn week for all I care!

[ssk13809]

Very dissapointing end


Giants, just had to win straight-up to complete my parlay LOSE.
And now the Rams, a ML play, lead the entire game, and now lose in OT.


Ruined my weekend

[ChileCheese]

Now that you have spoken up as being the best. Be prepared to lose more and more.
Indeed.

[ssk13809]

A bad Sunday for me. Just not up to my standards.



Texans +105
(Risk 5 to win 5.3)
Loss

Rams +220
(Risk 4 to win 8.8)
Loss

Seahawks +3
(Risk 5 to win 5)
Win

Buccaneers -6.5
(Risk 5.5 to win 5)
Win

Seahawks +150
Bills -130
(Risk 5 win 17.1)
Win

Colts -325
Bucs -310
Giants -650
(Risk 6 to Win 6)
Loss


Giants -13.5
Texans +1
Bills -1
Rams +6
(Risk 2 to Win 25.1)
Loss



Net Sunday: +10.1 Units (+7%)


Thankfully my trust in the Bills and Seahawks still gave me around a 7% increase in my total bankroll. This was the heaviest this big of a underdog parlay I have done this year. I just knew Seattle and Bufallo would win.


I have another perfect week ATS.

Moving onto 8-0-1 ATS for the year

[ssk13809]

Luckily my LOCK picks on Thursday made this weekend at least "average" for me


Net Week Result: +22.1 Units (+15.1%)


Which is roughly 15% increase in bankroll. Always can count on my LOCKS every single week giving me a boost no matter what. And it helps I put the most on them.



Week isn't over though. I know that. I still have a Risk 2 to Win 7 unit play left. But at worst, that's a +20 unit gain, 15+% of Bankroll, average.

[ssk13809]

Now that you have spoken up as being the best. Be prepared to lose more and more.
Indeed.

Yeah man, looking to bounce back out of the poor performance this Sunday increasing my bankroll only 8%. Though I have a perfect 3-0 ATS week moving onto 8-0 for the season.

But yeah, Week 10 I still gained 20+ units (given I lose my last bet) and that is not bad. Thanks to my LOCKS who always make a difference. This week they made a "bad sunday" to an "average week" of gaining only 15% in bank-roll.

[ssk13809]

I feel bad for the guy who bet me I couldn't hit 70% on ATS over the ATS plays I make in this thread (Min 24)

I'm 8-0-1

Did he not know my high lock rate and high "near lock" rate? I told him I'd hit 80-90% in this thread. He laughed and said I couldn't hit 70%.

Easy 200 points

[ssk13809]

On a Side-Note

That marks my 5th straight winning weekend on SBR and on this thread

[ssk13809]

Patriots win, setting up for a +350 ML I get tomorrow with the Redskins


This will make this "average" week of only increasing bankroll 15% actually a pretty decent week.

But risk is small. Only have 2 units on this. But +350 makes that even worth it.

[franklt]

Bad sunday? +10.1 units are not so bad!!!

[The J-Dizzle]

And you seem to be missing my point.
Im not here to make fun of you because you bet $10 dollars a game. You will get a lot of respect and be considering good or great.
However, to be considered THE BEST... you have to make lots of money.
Consider this example. If Warren Buffet Makes a 5% ROI for his company but its worth 20 billions dollars, he is considered better than some trader getting 20% ROI but only making $1,000.
Consider this example. The best poker players in the world who play High Stakes ($1,000 games and more ) have ROIs of 1-3%. Does that mean that giuys who play $10 stakes, but have ROIs of 15% are better players? Think about that. You want to win 57% of the time playing $2,000 Heads up? or win 80% of the time playing $2.00 Heads up?

Nice to see that you're comparin poker and betting.. You don't have an opponent in betting NFL!

ChileCheese, if you think someone on this forum is better, then why don't you say this person's name? Why do you even care, if he says he's the best let him prove it then. With +10 units yesterday I can certainly say he isn't the worst...

And also you're not becoming "the best" only by how much MONEY you make, ROI% on the other hand, is a great way to see WHO you should tail. Everyone has different bankrolls and that can't decide who's better. If player A started out with 100€ and ended the season with 10 000€ I would think he's much better than player B who started out with 10 000€ and ended the season with 30 000€. Or who would you follow, player B????

And come on would you REALLY follow the dude with a 60-40 record over someone with a 100-0 record??
If so I think you should rethink your strategies

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good work yesterday I won over $1100 bucks yesterday!

[ChileCheese]

Good Job Leslie.
I made over $1,100.00 Last night. Good thing that Sunday night game had 50 points in the second half

[ssk13809]

Bad sunday? +10.1 units are not so bad!!!

Like I said, my Sundays "average" is a 20+ unit profit, roughly 15+% increase in bankroll at this point. I started with 100 units, I'm around 150 now, so it's about a 13-15% increase. Though I might need to adjust some things considering my bankroll is getting larger and larger.


Lots of things went wrong on Sunday. The Jaguars game. That would've made that 10 unit to a 20 unit day. The Rams game. That also would've made the 10+ unit day to a 20+ unit day. And the Giants, all the Giants had to do was WIN the game against Dallas, and that also would've made the 10+ unit day to a 20+ unit day.

All of that went wrong. That is a bad day. With everything going wrong I was able to get 10+ units.


The games I won, were very easy covers. Buccaneers -6.5? They won by 15. Seahawks +3 lol? They won by 18.

And my big Bills and Seahawks parlay? I took Bills ML, they never trailed the whole game. And Seattle ML? Enough said already.








So with ALL of the close games going against me, you'd have to say that was a bad day. And it was, as I said, 20+ unit is average, and 10+ unit is bad for me at this point.

[ssk13809]

Nonetheless, EVEN with a Bad Sunday


My week was average. Thanks to my consistent, dependent, and always profiting LOCK picks on Thursday. As I said, I always bet ATS and ML on my LOCKs. And I a 6 unit profit on each. Making this week a 20+ unit week, thus average.


But hey, week isn't over. I basically got a +350 ML on the Redskins risking just 2 units. So it can get better.

[Full Time Hobo]

You going to hedge that Parlay for guaranteed profit?

[GoCougs!]

Tonights game is a toss up, but I am leaning on Wash as well. As a Seattle native, I appreciate the Seattle pick. I was going to leave the game alone because we've played so poorly lately and Arizona is so unpredictable.

[ssk13809]

You going to hedge that Parlay for guaranteed profit?

No


Though I don't have much football reasons to pick the Redskins, it is who I I would pick. My inside sources are telling me of a possible fix or potential surprise (Think NYG vs. DAL). I don't trust my inside sources too much, but I'll just listen to them since it is primetime. To be honest, I should've stayed away from primetime, but I wanted to add NE +5 somewhere, and then decided to just make a primetime parlay with NE and WAS since WAS was who I was leaning on.




Besides, it's only a 2 unit risk. If it was a bigger risk, I might've hedged it. But it's just 2 units lol.

[ssk13809]

Tonights game is a toss up, but I am leaning on Wash as well. As a Seattle native, I appreciate the Seattle pick. I was going to leave the game alone because we've played so poorly lately and Arizona is so unpredictable.

I'm also a Seattle native. And I think I've got a very good grip on Seattle. I picked NYG -7 as my lock last week (though i was banned from SBR so I couldn't count that towards my record), and this week I laid some on Seahawks +3, and hit a big ML parlay with Bills/Seahawks.

Honestly, I just knew the Cardinals sucked so bad. The only way this team is anywhere close to winning games is getting TOs. If they don't happen, they have no chance. I put my money that Seattle wouldn't turn it over too much with Hasselbeck at QB. Exactly what happened. Seahawks are still a decent team, that can easily beat weak teams.

[Full Time Hobo]

Regardless of 2 units or not money is money so i would love to have a profit no matter the outcome of a game.
Your decision though. Nice week regardless if it was below average for you.
Nice to be in the black then in the red.

[ssk13809]

Regardless of 2 units or not money is money so i would love to have a profit no matter the outcome of a game.
Your decision though. Nice week regardless if it was below average for you.
Nice to be in the black then in the red.

Correction

The weekend was below average resulting in only a 10+ unit increase. But the week, because of my lock pick, was average since I did 20+ units for the week. I'll still have 20+ units even if I lose the WAS pick. But if I win that one, I might even claim I had a "above average" week despite multiple close losses. So just for that, I'm in.

[Full Time Hobo]

Nice work

[ssk13809]

For those wondering how the contest is going between me and Kroy



He's failed to finish higher than me for the 6th straight week. The contest is over. He is literally around 23 units behind me, and we bet 1unit/game. That's what happens when you challenge the greatest.


I can really analyze each team in the NFL very good at this point and pick the best bets in that contest that requires 5picks/week. The last 5 weeks I have gone 18-6 ATS, and some of those losses were "forced" losses (due to the 5 required picks/week thing). 3-2 is a "bad week" with forced picks, and it would really take a LOT of bad luck to see 2-3. 4-1 is more the expected these weeks.

[ssk13809]

And if anyone thinks they are better than me, ATS or ML, challenge me to a contest with however many SBR points you want to lose



And yes that is an open challenge to anyone. I could always use some free SBR points.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

And if anyone thinks they are better than me, ATS or ML, challenge me to a contest with however many SBR points you want to lose And yes that is an open challenge to anyone. I could always use some free SBR points.

I'm interested in a friendly challenge How we going to set this up?

[ChileCheese]

I'm interested in a friendly challenge How we going to set this up?

If he accepts your challenge, I offer to hold the points in my account so there is no stiffing going on.

Are you going to accept Leslie?

[ssk13809]

If he accepts your challenge, I offer to hold the points in my account so there is no stiffing going on.

Are you going to accept Leslie?

Doesn't SBR in their "contest" thing hold points and pay out to the winner? I think they do. So their would no point in you holding on. And my name isn't Leslie. Do I sound like a girl to you? At least my winning picks week after week should indicate I'm not a girl.



Mighty Ducks. How do you want to do it? Some things to consider


- Pay points weekly to the winner of the week? If so, how many points?
- Pay points at the end of the year to the winner? If so, how many points?
- How many picks required/week?
- ATS + Totals + ML? Or any 1 or 2 of them?



I know you're good, but honestly those questions are basically asking how do you want to lose and how much do you want to lose.