SSK's NFL Thread

[ssk13809]

After getting my last thread closed because of trolls throwing around garbage, and me responding to them, and serving a 1 week ban.

The Best NFL Handicapper on SBR is back



Results from previous thread (4 Weeks)

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/709715-ssks-nfl-ml-thread-p8.html

Straight ML Bets: 8-4 (Avg. Bet odds +112)
ATS Picks: 5-0-1
NFL Overall: +43.9 Units (+43.9%)



I'm basically an NFL Expert, who always finishes high in NFL Pick'Em (90+% every year). Therefore, naturally I will do good in MLs. Furthermore, I also do a little ATS. But only "LOCK" or near lock picks. These LOCK picks started when I got used to each team in the NFL (Post Week 4), and thats also when I made this thread. I hit 80-90% long-term on these lock picks. So far 5-0. No surprise.



And to all the haters, YES I have included everything posted in that thread, even the MNF games I never bet and lost. So please don't troll arguing about that again. That's what got the other thread out of hand. I have included EVERYTHING. end of argument. The Mods told me to report all the posts that try to take this thread off-topic.




Last week, even though I wasn't on SBR, I did a 3 Team Parlay (MIN, ATL, GB) and won, and also had my ATS Lock of the Week in NYG. So I'm really 6-0 ATS.






But anyways, the pattern of winning will continue. Stay tuned.

[mart59a]

Welcome back!
Who do you like tonight?

[ufcmma36]

bol in the future!

[ssk13809]

Welcome back!
Who do you like tonight?

I wouldn't bet on either.

But I'd lean on Steelers -6.5. The Bengals passing game is pretty weak this year with Palmer, their strength has been their running game. However, no one runs on the Steelers. Bengals will not have much success. The Steelers are also hungry after last weeks loss. And on offense, the Steelers should have a solid night as well as the Bengals defense sucks.

So yeah, Steelers. Though its not a LOCK ATS pick for me, so I wouldn't bet on it. But I'd say its probable.

[ssk13809]

bol in the future!

Thanks

But I usually don't need it

[mart59a]

I wouldn't bet on either.

But I'd lean on Steelers -6.5. The Bengals passing game is pretty weak this year with Palmer, their strength has been their running game. However, no one runs on the Steelers. Bengals will not have much success. The Steelers are also hungry after last weeks loss. And on offense, the Steelers should have a solid night as well as the Bengals defense sucks.

So yeah, Steelers. Though its not a LOCK ATS pick for me, so I wouldn't bet on it. But I'd say its probable.

Thanks...my thoughts exactly.

[ssk13809]

Thanks...my thoughts exactly.

Yeah it's a solid play. But wouldn't classify in the "80-90"% category for me.

[TheSportsBaron]

Serious question:

Are you going to be coming into this thread with your accounts calling yourself the best capper on these forums too?

BOL!

[ssk13809]

Serious question:

Are you going to be coming into this thread with your accounts calling yourself the best capper on these forums too?

BOL!

lol

It's already been confirmed by Willie Bee (Mod) that that was someone else. Not my alt account.

I just have a lot of fans.

[ssk13809]

I will post my leans tomorrow. And keep track of my "lean" record on the side. But not bet on all of my leans obviously.


Goal is to be up 60+% by next weekend. I'd say that's probable.

[hitman2010]

just stop by and checking the thread. Can't wait to see ssk leans and plays this week. Most PK game.

[ssk13809]

just stop by and checking the thread. Can't wait to see ssk leans and plays this week. Most PK game.

What what is that last part supposed to mean?

[ssk13809]

I've made a lot of money betting on the Falcons at home this year.


This seems like another golden opportunity to do so. I'm strongly leaning on the Falcons at home against the Ravens. Both ML and ATS seem very strong plays.

Knowing my ATS LOCK Record, you know I don't play around when I say this.


Official bets and maybe a quick writeup will be posted later.

[ssk13809]

On a side-note, just a trivia fact kind of thing


Last year (on a different forum) all my posted ATS LOCK Picks went 7-0.

This year I'm off to a 5-0 start.

[Beachdude83]

U must be a millionaire By now

[GoCougs!]

Good to see you back.
What is your record in the challenge with Kroy? I know you were beating him, but you weren't 100% ATS.

I thought you had lost some ATS games there? Am I wrong? I'm not sure how you can post an ATS spread of 5-0-1 when you had losses there. I'm not trying to hammer on you, your picks are normally winners. I just don't see how you can advertise 5-0-1.

[ssk13809]

Good to see you back.
What is your record in the challenge with Kroy? I know you were beating him, but you weren't 100% ATS.

I thought you had lost some ATS games there? Am I wrong? I'm not sure how you can post an ATS spread of 5-0-1 when you had losses there. I'm not trying to hammer on you, your picks are normally winners. I just don't see how you can advertise 5-0-1.

Obviously that record isn't of the contest where we are required 5 picks/week lol.


Read it again. "Results from previous thread"

In other words, its the ATS picks I posted in that thread that I actually BET ON. This is common sense. Obviously my ATS record would be based of the ATS picks I posted in my NFL thread that I bet on. Not some weekly contest picks. Read through the thread, I'm 5-0-1 on NFL ATS Games.

So let's repeat so others aren't confused. That is the record of the ATS picks I post in my thread. For example, Kroy, he doesn't have the record that he has in our contest, he has the record of the ATS picks he posted in his thread. And this goes to everyone.

So not sure why you had that misunderstanding.



And I'm destroying Kroy not beating him. I think I'm 14-5 last 4 weeks ATS in that contest. As I've said at the start of the year, I really get used to all the NFL teams post Week 4. Since then, I have been hitting 70+% ATS in that contest.

[ssk13809]

U must be a millionaire By now

That's my #1 problem. How to optimally convert your winnings to cash.


Winning is a given for me. But turning that into the most possible cash will be the main obstacle for me.

[EXhoosier10]

Can you list all of your previous plays including the lines you got? Thanks

[ssk13809]

Can you list all of your previous plays including the lines you got? Thanks

They are all in my previous thread that I posted the link of in my original post.

You can go through it.

[ssk13809]

On a side-note, just a trivia fact kind of thing


Last year (on a different forum) all my posted ATS LOCK Picks went 7-0.

This year I'm off to a 5-0 start.

Another side-note trivia kind of thing

I said at the beginning of the NFL year numerous times that I need at least 3 weeks of action before I get used to each team and make picks based on my Expert NFL analysis.

Since then, I made this thread. And even in the contest with Kroy (5 picks/week)
I have been 14-5 ATS (74%) (past 4 weeks)
including 5-0 ATS Locks (My thread)



Do I expect those results to continue?


Yes

[ssk13809]

And I already see my ATS Lock for the week. Will be posted soon. ATS LOCKS (Or near Locks) are the ones where I post some analysis on. To assure you, it really is a LOCK.

[ssk13809]

In case anyone cares,

I found the post from other forum where I went 7-0 LOCKS last year

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=153007&page=2

I'm the arrogant "GP_20" or "Glove" guy. This thread kind of summed up my weekly results. It's not a betting forum so I just posted in the NFL thread every week my picks. I basically helped them make some money.

I used to post my LOCK every week in that forum. Till I went 3-0 ATS in a given week, and some guy says "that is easy". I got mad and challenged anyone else in the forum to go 3-0 any given week, and if they didn't, I would not post any more picks there. I never posted my picks there again.


Summary quote:

7 weeks in a row of plus .500/profits? 7 weeks? That's not luck.
7-0 in locks? That's not luck.
Hitting 3-0 twice, and another perfect week? That's not luck.


But really, you can get lucky once, twice, even 3 times, but 7 times?

So that's 7-0 last year on posted LOCK picks, and 5-0 ATS so far this year in my thread.

[ssk13809]

But just to inform or repeat

- LOCK Picks start Post Week 3 for me, as did this thread. So all my picks are indeed in the thread I posted above. They started around the same time last year too in forum above. Not from Week 1 or 2. Because once again, I need to get used to each NFL team so my expert analysis can kick in. All my picks are in my thread that I have posted in the original post. You can find everything there.

- I am NOT 5-0 in my LOCK picks this year. I am actually 3-0. LOCK picks are picks I bet ATS and Straight ML on. Thats how I sign my LOCK picks. I have done that 3 times, so I am 3-0 there. The other 2 are "Near Lock" ATS picks. Remember, I bet LOCK and "near lock" on ATS. "Near locks" hit about 80% (as opposed to 90%). Thats why I say I hit about 80-90% on ATS (because I bet only LOCKS and "near locks").


Overall I avg. about 0.8 LOCK picks/week. And about 1.2 "Near Lock" picks/week.


Though I think I should start doing more ATS, as I am 14-5 (74%) ATS past 4 weeks in the weekly contest with a fellow SBR poster. And this is after I had to "force" some picks due to the 5picks/week minimum requirement.

But I will post my leans on all games this week ATS at least.

[hitman2010]

OK, you post a lot, but the thing I looking is the picks and ideas, the past is the past, I like your style today.

[ssk13809]

Alrite let me post some picks


My LOCK of the week


Falcons -120 ML
Risk 7.2 to win 6


Falcons -1
Risk 6.6 to win 6


Since it's a ML & ATS Play (Or Lock), I will post some reasons.

Everyone knows I have bet on Falcons at home often. I have made quite a profit. Matt Ryan is now 17-1 at home for his career and he always plays great at home. Falcons in general are a great home team. Ravens on the other hand have been medicore on the road so far this year. They have lost to the Bengals and the Patriots on the road already. So we really got a medicore to good team (Raves on the Road) against an elite team (Falcons at home). You have to put money on the Falcons here.

Furthermore, I see Matt Ryan having a pretty good game against this Raven D. The Ravens struggled against Ryan Fitzpatrick and even Henne went 22/34 against them. Let me be honest, this Raven defense has not looked as strong as it has in the recent years. Their run defense isn't as strong as it usually is either, though still good. But I think Ryan at home will post at least 20 points on the Ravens. More like 24 or 27. Flacco should have a good game too, but at least the Falcons can stop the run.



I think Falcons take this for sure.

[PayDay]

I like Falcon too. Let get this! Bol to ya!

[ChileCheese]

That's my #1 problem. How to optimally convert your winnings to cash.


Winning is a given for me. But turning that into the most possible cash will be the main obstacle for me.

What the hell does this mean?

[ssk13809]

What the hell does this mean?

It means you don't always receive how much you can win

[ssk13809]

Well guys, my LOCK hits once again.


That's 11-0 All-Time in "Posted LOCKS"
(Which are posted after Week 3 each year in the NFL and I bet ML + ATS on them)

And puts me 6-0 ATS for the year with my highly selective picks.




And I'm also basically a LOCK to have another winning weekend now.

[udlock4life]

well done man

[ssk13809]

Thanks

I'm now about 9-4 (70%) at MLs with Avg. Odds +110 (Pretty difficult to do at those odds)

And 6-0 ATS



And all these plays are all the plays I posted in my thread.

[bobbyk1133]

Still resetting your record?? What happened to your 90% "locks"?? I think we should start calling you bubble boy cuz that's clearly what you live in.

[ssk13809]

Still resetting your record?? What happened to your 90% "locks"?? I think we should start calling you bubble boy cuz that's clearly what you live in.

Um excuse me? Thats my record for all the games from "My thread" which is posted in the link above. It's been going for the past 5-6 weeks now.


I've already said that my "NFL Analysis" (which is the basis of all my picks) really gets going post week 4, as I get used to all the teams.

Thats why I made my thread after that. And my record shows whats up. You can go from the start of the thread to now, and you will see it is what it is on my Sig.

[ssk13809]

I'll have more picks for Sunday soon (Most likely tomm night)