RLM System Plays

[crockje]

(this is link for the posessions per game data) http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats...avg&stat_type= Absolutely awesome website, all of the data i use is from there except now this usatoday schedule that diggs pointed out to me! They update their site everyday so that stats should be reliable.

Thanks Det that site is great gonna take a look with having tomorrow off how your spreadsheet works out with nba. Although odd statsheet doesnt have nba

[detroitigerz]

Thanks Det that site is great gonna take a look with having tomorrow off how your spreadsheet works out with nba. Although odd statsheet doesnt have nba

Yeah trust me I noticed haha. Wish it did.

Diggs,
Have you backtested Sagarin's strategy or anything? Seems like an interesting way of looking at it.

[Ranx777]

Havent got a chance to read through all 43 pages of this thread but am trying to catch up on what the criteria is now for this RLM system? And what is the updated record here.

Appreciate if somebody could fill me in, thanks.

[DirkDiggs]

Wow Diggs great find, I was looking for something just like this. I noticed this is updated thru Feb 5th does he update this everyday?

Thanks!

My pleasure. And, yep, it's updated every day.

Thanks again for putting together the sheet it has a lot of promise.

One suggestion is that, it does not seem to factor in home court, which is indeed a very real phenomena in determining game outcomes.

You can also use the sagarin ratings to calculate an expected spread which may be another criteria to consider when weighing how much we like games with RLM.

And of course Ken Pom does the same thing, but is generally considered to be better and also incorporates a strength of schedule parameter.

http://kenpom.com/

[DirkDiggs]

Havent got a chance to read through all 43 pages of this thread but am trying to catch up on what the criteria is now for this RLM system? And what is the updated record here.

Appreciate if somebody could fill me in, thanks.

Just head back a page...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-betting/1528403-rlm-system-plays-p40.html#post13619351

Wiseguy regularly provides updates of games to monitor and all of these updates have the criteria and the record.

Welcome to the thread!

[Laissez Faire]

For those new to thread, here is the basic RLM system that we have been using. Some of us have been including more advanced plays, such as 1st half & 1st qtr spread & ML bets.

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)

[Night-Tripper]

Yes it is.. If 71% is on clippers then the magic should be getting more points ... Instead it went from them gettin points to a pk... That's rlm

Just a tip since you're new to this thread... don't tell wiseguy that he doesn't know what he's doing.

[Sourbumpy]

Just a tip since you're new to this thread... don't tell wiseguy that he doesn't know what he's doing.

[DirkDiggs]

Yeah trust me I noticed haha. Wish it did.

Diggs,
Have you backtested Sagarin's strategy or anything? Seems like an interesting way of looking at it.

If you were to bet every game with Sagarin, I'm not sure you would have an edge, definitely not with the juice. However, I found it can be very useful in finding a line that is "off". Once you find that line, you then need to ask yourself why? There may be a legitimate reasons or the public might have hammered the line and moved it a couple points...

I use it more as a diagnostic feature than a predictive tool.

It would of course be tremendously easy to incorporate into your spreadsheet...

[Laissez Faire]

UPDATED 5:45 pm

Games to Watch 2/06/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)



NCAAB

7:00 pm 521 Connecticut Huskies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners OPEN +6 NOW +5

9:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +10 NOW +9.5

NBA

7:05pm 502 Washington Wizards OPEN -3.5 NOW -4

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets OPEN +7.5 NOW +6.5

YTD: 70-49-1 59%

EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE: YTD: 3-1

NCAAB

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies ML OPEN +165 NOW +160

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies 1ST H ML OPEN +136 NOW +130

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners 1ST H ML OPEN +145 NOW +140

7:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons ML OPEN +450 NOW +400

NBA

7:05pm 504 Orlando Magic 1st QT ML OPEN +100 NOW -105

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets ML OPEN +264 NOW +240

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets 1ST H ML OPEN +203 NOW +190

NHL

10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks ML OPEN -130 NOW -135
10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks -1.5

[Night-Tripper]

For those new to thread, here is the basic RLM system that we have been using. Some of us have been including more advanced plays, such as 1st half & 1st qtr spread & ML bets.

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)

Thanks for taking care of the question!

As Laissez Faire just posted... those are the basic paramaters we're using. But, each person can further tweak the system to suit their purpose. While some have a cutoff on spreads that they'll play... others (for example... me) don't. Also, for tracking purposes... we're using a minimum of 3,000 bets on one team. (I use 3,000 total for my decisions.) The one thing that we don't mess with is that we all use the statistics from freesports to base our bets on.

[Night-Tripper]

This isn't really a play to me b/c %'s are too close (49% Red Wings / 51% Coyotes)


Last night was the first losing night for my hockey extra plays. Hopefully this will be a good week.

2/5 Jets +1.5 LOSS
2/5 Jets +110 LOSS
2/4 Edmonton +1.5 WIN
2/4 Edmonton +135 WIN
2/3 Islanders +1.5 WIN
2/3 Islanders +130 WIN
2/3 Blue Jackets +1.5 WIN
2/3 Blue Jackets +180 WIN

6-2 75%

Hey dude.. I'm thinking about messing with this tonight... and I'd like your thoughts.

The Flames have 66% of the bets on the +1.5 puck line, but the price for the Ducks -1.5 has gone from +227 to +205. Now, I don't like giving goals away... I'd rather play a + moneyline... but would the Ducks be a play if I'm going to play the puck line?

[Laissez Faire]

Just updated our watch list...I figured we should help WiseGuy out once in a while


Games to Watch 2/06/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)



NCAAB

7:00 pm 521 Connecticut Huskies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners OPEN +6 NOW +5

9:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +10 NOW +9.5

NBA

7:05pm 502 Washington Wizards OPEN -3.5 NOW -4

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets OPEN +7.5 NOW +6.5

YTD: 70-49-1 59%

EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE: YTD: 3-1

NCAAB

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies ML OPEN +165 NOW +160

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies 1ST H ML OPEN +136 NOW +130

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners 1ST H ML OPEN +145 NOW +140

7:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons ML OPEN +450 NOW +400

NBA

7:05pm 504 Orlando Magic 1st QT ML OPEN +100 NOW -105

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets ML OPEN +264 NOW +240

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets 1ST H ML OPEN +203 NOW +190

NHL

10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks ML OPEN -130 NOW -135
10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks -1.5

[Laissez Faire]

NHL

10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks ML OPEN -130 NOW -135
10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks -1.5

just for you Night Tripper...what makes me feel so good about this pick is that my friend has a paid handicapper subscription for NHL & this was one of his 2 picks tonight (and he got those picks at like 1am this morning)..... so hopefully it's

[Night-Tripper]

just for you Night Tripper...what makes me feel so good about this pick is that my friend has a paid handicapper subscription for NHL & this was one of his 2 picks tonight (and he got those picks at like 1am this morning)..... so hopefully it's

Thanks... I'm gonna live dangerously... I'm gonna lay the 1.5 goals and hope for the big score!

[R19]

Example: Oklahoma 1H is moving from +2.5 to +3.0. Would that keep you sidelined?

[detroitigerz]

My pleasure. And, yep, it's updated every day.

Thanks again for putting together the sheet it has a lot of promise.

One suggestion is that, it does not seem to factor in home court, which is indeed a very real phenomena in determining game outcomes.

You can also use the sagarin ratings to calculate an expected spread which may be another criteria to consider when weighing how much we like games with RLM.

And of course Ken Pom does the same thing, but is generally considered to be better and also incorporates a strength of schedule parameter.

http://kenpom.com/

Well, heres my updated spreadsheet. I think this ratings thing has serious potential for helping... I just went back to Feb 2, and if you would have bet the games with RLM and the spread lines up you'd be up pretty big. I'm gunna start looking into this now and keeping track of my progress.

In other news, I like toronto tonight... sorry RLM'ers.

[Night-Tripper]

Example: Oklahoma 1H is moving from +2.5 to +3.0. Would that keep you sidelined?

Wouldn't phase me. I base all of my hoops plays off of the spread reversal for the game.

[Laissez Faire]

Example: Oklahoma 1H is moving from +2.5 to +3.0. Would that keep you sidelined?

Personally, no. It would not keep me sidelined due to the fact that basketball is a game of two halves. What that line movement is telling me is that more people are jumping on Missouri having a decent halftime lead. But, as Clemson has showed us in recent days, as long as the overall line is still an RLM play, I would stick to the system (Clemson had a monster 2nd half to cover yesterday after being down at half)


However, your query has pointed out to me that the Sooners 1st half ML is no longer an extra play, so I will remove that promptly

[wiseguy007]

Just updated our watch list...I figured we should help WiseGuy out once in a while


Games to Watch 2/06/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)



NCAAB

7:00 pm 521 Connecticut Huskies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners OPEN +6 NOW +5

9:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +10 NOW +9.5

NBA

7:05pm 502 Washington Wizards OPEN -3.5 NOW -4

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets OPEN +7.5 NOW +6.5

YTD: 70-49-1 59%

EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE: YTD: 3-1

NCAAB

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies ML OPEN +165 NOW +160

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies 1ST H ML OPEN +136 NOW +130

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners 1ST H ML OPEN +145 NOW +140

7:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons ML OPEN +450 NOW +400

NBA

7:05pm 504 Orlando Magic 1st QT ML OPEN +100 NOW -105

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets ML OPEN +264 NOW +240

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets 1ST H ML OPEN +203 NOW +190

NHL

10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks ML OPEN -130 NOW -135
10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks -1.5

Thanks for the help

[Laissez Faire]

Thanks... I'm gonna live dangerously... I'm gonna lay the 1.5 goals and hope for the big score!

haha...I'm right there with you...about to head out to the Magic game soon...I'm fortunate enough to work for a company who has a suite at the arena....will definitely be keeping an eye on all the games in between Griffin's dunks haha

[Laissez Faire]

Thanks for the help

no problem man...also, just noticed Wizards is at -4.5 now

and Oklahoma Sooners 1st half ML is no longer an extra play (jumped up to +150)

[R19]

UConn slipped in percentages.

[R19]

no problem man...also, just noticed Wizards is at -4.5 now

and Oklahoma Sooners 1st half ML is no longer an extra play (jumped up to +150)

Thanks Night-Tripper. How about you Laissez Faire? Would you play 1H on Oklahoma if it widens? Open +2.5, Now +3.0.

[Night-Tripper]

UConn slipped in percentages.

Yep... UConn is no longer a RLM play.

[Night-Tripper]

haha...I'm right there with you...about to head out to the Magic game soon...I'm fortunate enough to work for a company who has a suite at the arena....will definitely be keeping an eye on all the games in between Griffin's dunks haha

Enjoy!

[R19]

UConn slipped in percentages.

Washington Wizards now at 38%/62%. Also, wouldn't Washington 1H be a play on the spread?

[hkssupra69]

just a question, i know you guys are actively monitoring the percentage changes and can make a decision as to whether or not it is no longer a play, so are you guys making any bets at the last moment? are you guys just tracking the system for now and not making any wagers yet?

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE: 6:42PM

Games to Watch 2/06/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)



NCAAB

7:00 pm 521 Connecticut Huskies OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners OPEN +6 NOW +5

9:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +10 NOW +9.5

NBA

7:05pm 502 Washington Wizards OPEN -3.5 NOW -4.5

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets OPEN +7.5 NOW +6.5

YTD: 70-49-1 59%


EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE: YTD: 3-1

NCAAB

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies ML OPEN +165 NOW +155

7:00pm 521 Connecticut Huskies 1ST H ML OPEN +136 NOW +130

7:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons ML OPEN +450 NOW +400

NBA

7:05pm 504 Orlando Magic 1st QT ML OPEN +100 NOW -110

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets ML OPEN +264 NOW +240

9:05pm 517 Houston Rockets 1ST H ML OPEN +203 NOW +190

NHL

10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks ML OPEN -130 NOW -135
10:05pm 56 Anaheim Ducks -1.5

[R19]

Anyone looking at Phoenix Suns? Opened +8.0 on SBR and The RX vs. +7.5 on Free Sports - so it's one of those. Thanks.

[wiseguy007]

just a question, i know you guys are actively monitoring the percentage changes and can make a decision as to whether or not it is no longer a play, so are you guys making any bets at the last moment? are you guys just tracking the system for now and not making any wagers yet?

We are tracking and betting on it as well.

[Night-Tripper]

1st half: DePaul +5.5/200
1st half: Oklahoma +3/200
1st half: Wizards -2.5/200
1st half: Nets +5.5/200 (non system play)
1st half: Rockets +3.5/200

DePaul +9.5/350
Oklahoma +5/350
Wizards -4.5/450
Nets +9.5/450 (non system play)
Rockets +7/450

DePaul +400/200
Oklahoma +175/200
Nets +425/200 (non system play)
Rockets +245/200

Ducks -1.5 @ +185/250

[Night-Tripper]

just a question, i know you guys are actively monitoring the percentage changes and can make a decision as to whether or not it is no longer a play, so are you guys making any bets at the last moment? are you guys just tracking the system for now and not making any wagers yet?

I'm pretty sure most all of us are playing with real money... I know I am. As far as making bets at the last moment... I usually put mine in after doing my best to make sure that it's not going to end up going the other way. If you wait until the last moment.. you usually cost yourself a .5 point. Then again... as with the Wizards at this moment... they've gone from 37% to 38%... which would technically make them a non-play. However, the 63% has some fat built in, so I'm not worried about it. If it went to 60%, I'd probably bet the other side and juice out.

[hkssupra69]

I'm pretty sure most all of us are playing with real money... I know I am. As far as making bets at the last moment... I usually put mine in after doing my best to make sure that it's not going to end up going the other way. If you wait until the last moment.. you usually cost yourself a .5 point. Then again... as with the Wizards at this moment... they've gone from 37% to 38%... which would technically make them a non-play. However, the 63% has some fat built in, so I'm not worried about it. If it went to 60%, I'd probably bet the other side and juice out.

ok cool to know. i placed money on conn following the early numbers and since its turned into a non-play i guess the smart play would be to hedge the other way but i'll follow the early trend and just ride it out. great job with what you guys have going here, pretty impressive. Thanks for the reply.

[detroitigerz]

My games are in... stepping out on a limb here tonight. Trying to mix in this schedule strength factor. Yeah i know these aren't RLM. But DID use RLM to arrive at these conclusions.

Missouri -5
Louisville -4
Toronto Raptors +4.5