RLM System Plays

**Night-Tripper** · 02-05-12, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by ToPHeR

so if it goes to +3 you get that line?

Whatever the line is at the time you place your bet is what your line will be.

**wiseguy007** · 02-05-12, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

May make myself look like the ultimate dumbazz (won't be the first time), but I don't have a clue as to who the dude is in your avatar. But... I wanted to let you know that he is a dead ringer for my barber.

I think that is the actor from the tv show Breaking Bad - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0903747/

**Night-Tripper** · 02-05-12, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

I think that is the actor from the tv show Breaking Bad - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0903747/

Thanks wiseguy... if it ain't something I'm betting on... I don't watch it... unless it's a Discovery Channel or History type program.

**wiseguy007** · 02-05-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Thanks wiseguy... if it ain't something I'm betting on... I don't watch it... unless it's a Discovery Channel or History type program.

Yea I love those 2 channels.

**Night-Tripper** · 02-05-12, 07:50 PM

Welp... that sucked.

**R19** · 02-05-12, 08:39 PM

Surprisingly or not, did better today than yesterday. Shows how much yesterday was a struggle. Kicking back watching this bowl with little interest. BOL everyone.

**Night-Tripper** · 02-05-12, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by R19

Surprisingly or not, did better today than yesterday. Shows how much yesterday was a struggle. Kicking back watching this bowl with little interest. BOL everyone.

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 20:40 ET
bet 300.00 to win 585.00 (paid 885.0) Result: Wager Won

xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line 21
xxPatriots - Primary LIVE Line 17 02/05/2012(23:59 ET)
xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line +195

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 20:31 ET
bet 750.00 to win 500.00 (paid 1250.0) Result: Wager Won

xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line 21
xxPatriots - Primary LIVE Line 17 02/05/2012(23:59 ET)
xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line +7.5 (-150)

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 20:30 ET
bet 500.00 to win 1,125.00 (paid 1625.0) Result: Wager Won

xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line 21
xxPatriots - Primary LIVE Line 17 02/05/2012(23:59 ET)
xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line +225

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 18:22 ET
bet 500.00 to win 600.00 (paid 1100.0) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +120

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 01/23/12 00:34 ET
bet 892.50 to win 850.00 (paid 1742.5) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +3 (-105)

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 01/25/12 16:58 ET
bet 725.00 to win 725.00 (paid 1450.0) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +2.5 (even)

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 01/29/12 11:25 ET
bet 425.00 to win 425.00 (paid 850.0) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +2.5 (even)

**R19** · 02-05-12, 11:09 PM

Good to see it worked out for you Night-Tripper. I saw little edge from my position. Next time I'll look past my dislike for the teams playing and see what I can do. I had a crappy record in the NFL playoffs and was a phenom in the bowls. If there was a bet to make where both teams could lose, I would have taken it.

**Night-Tripper** · 02-06-12, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by R19

Good to see it worked out for you Night-Tripper. I saw little edge from my position. Next time I'll look past my dislike for the teams playing and see what I can do. I had a crappy record in the NFL playoffs and was a phenom in the bowls. If there was a bet to make where both teams could lose, I would have taken it.

Thanks dude... I really don't care for the Giants or Patriots (unless they're playing the Cowboys). I took a pretty good hit on the 49ers when they gave the game away against the Giants... they were the team that I thought would trash the Patriots. But, I'd already decided that the winner of the Niner/Giant game would win the Super Bowl... so I went with the Giants by default. As I've mentioned... I always like the team I'm playing to get behind so that I can snatch them up on an inflated moneyline... and that's what happened. It doesn't always work out for me... but that's why they call it gambling.

Let's see what we can do in hoops this week... good luck to ya!

**Laissez Faire** · 02-06-12, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 20:40 ET
bet 300.00 to win 585.00 (paid 885.0) Result: Wager Won

xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line 21
xxPatriots - Primary LIVE Line 17 02/05/2012(23:59 ET)
xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line +195

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 20:31 ET
bet 750.00 to win 500.00 (paid 1250.0) Result: Wager Won

xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line 21
xxPatriots - Primary LIVE Line 17 02/05/2012(23:59 ET)
xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line +7.5 (-150)

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 20:30 ET
bet 500.00 to win 1,125.00 (paid 1625.0) Result: Wager Won

xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line 21
xxPatriots - Primary LIVE Line 17 02/05/2012(23:59 ET)
xxGiants - Primary LIVE Line +225

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 02/05/12 18:22 ET
bet 500.00 to win 600.00 (paid 1100.0) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +120

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 01/23/12 00:34 ET
bet 892.50 to win 850.00 (paid 1742.5) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +3 (-105)

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 01/25/12 16:58 ET
bet 725.00 to win 725.00 (paid 1450.0) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +2.5 (even)

XX) BET ID=XXXXXXXX
Straight Wager 01/29/12 11:25 ET
bet 425.00 to win 425.00 (paid 850.0) Result: Wager Won

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17 02/05/2012(18:50 ET)
New York Giants +2.5 (even)

**mrtsummit** · 02-06-12, 12:33 AM

University of Connecticut tomorrow, lock it now!!

**Laissez Faire** · 02-06-12, 12:35 AM

looking forward to a good week everyone

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 10:01 AM

I just updated my spreadsheet... trying to figure out how to post this spreadsheet in the forum. It says to enter my spreadsheet code which can be found in mySBRforum.com but I can't for the life of me figure out how to get the code haha.

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 10:20 AM

I guess I'll just attach the spreadsheet.... Let's see if this works. I didn't do one of 8 or under just the .5 points up to 9.5. Seems as though the under 7.5 spread is still the best ratio thus far! How is the 8 spread doing? Is anyone keeping track of that?

Sorry just realized I attached my statistics spreadsheet also (Sports_2)... I like finding the games with RLM then comparing the two teams involved in the game by their statistics. All you have to do is update each sheet when you open the file. Data-> Connections -> refresh each connection. It will auto update the teams stats. Then goto the TOTAL tab and type in the two names and compare their numbers any way you like. I have to say I've been looking pretty much solely at their Offensive points differences and their Defensive points allowed differences. comparing those two numbers to come up with a rough spread for the game. And surprisingly that spread is usually right on with what the games open at. If they're RLM qualified and theres a greater difference in the books spread and my spread on the spreadsheet I tend to like the game more. This has been working pretty well for me.

For instance.... I just looked at the connecticut vs louisville game. After updating the sheet ...
1.) Louisville is expected to win by 2.186 points offensively
2.) Connecticut is expected to allow .853 less points defensively.
3.) after subtracting the two I see that Louisville is expected to probably win by 1.5 points or so.
4.) After comparing the spread to that calculation (roughly) 2.5 pt difference right now, I look at the two teams Effective Field Goals, and True Shooting Percentages, which I think are great indicators of the actual skill of the team. Connecticut has Louisville beat in both of those categories, and I think this will be a game worth betting on.

Also I'm finding it more important to look at the # of possessions and compare. Louisville averages on the year 5 more possessions than connecticut does, After looking thru the numbers I've decided connecticut has a better offense (1.07 points per possession) and Louisville has a better defense (.89 points allowed on each drive). Should be a good game to watch and I'm thinking that if uConn can get a lot of possessions they should be a sure thing.

- I forgot to mention to look at the turnovers also, I usually put this into my equation when I am trying to find my calculated point spread. Connecticut turns over the ball 2 times less than Louisville does. which in my equation would actually give Connecticut the edge for the outright win.

- The only thing, well not the only thing I wish I could find would be RPI stats on the internet for free. I think I need to incorporate the strength of schedule of each team into the spreadsheet. That's very important IMO but I can't seem to find them for free anywhere. Anyone know of a place to find strength of schedule on the internet for free?

Sorry for the long post, know this probably doesn't really apply to RLM but I figured I'd give my two cents.

Attached Files

**R19** · 02-06-12, 10:52 AM

Playing 8. It has done well, but Saturday was rough as many high spread games hit. Still need to review many previous Saturdays as that is the biggest day of the week for basketball. Most likely I will be opening it up to high spreads on Saturdays.

Looking back to 02.04.12 with the following criteria:
- 63%/37% public bias or greater
- > 3,000 Total Games
- Static Spread or Reverse Line Movement
- I understand that many have variations of this.

Max Spread 8: 7-5-0
No Max Spread: 19-9-1

I think this differs from what others were reporting most likely because of the Static and Reverse vs. Reverse Only parameters. This is in line with 01.28.12 where I had 6-2 with a max 8 and I believe that wiseguy007 had a 15-5 using his approach. Percentages, plays, and lines can move right until game time so reviewing back typically there will be some variance vs. actual application unless you wait right until game time every time. There is something different about the last 3 Saturdays and most likely Saturdays in general.

Now we have no more football so we'll see whether there is any other difference(s).

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 11:21 AM

Annnnnd now uConn isn't RLM

:

looks like I may be just taking an NBA game or two tonight.

I can't bring myself to bet on the Oklahoma game or the DePaul game. And yeah R19 I noticed on my spreadsheet Saturdays this RLM plays out MUCH better than other days of the week. It's pretty much RLM does great on saturday, and then it's mixed/even through the week. Think we should adapt our strategies for the weekend. This last Saturday I ended up going like 6-2 just playing all of the games I could find within RLM haha starting later.

**wiseguy007** · 02-06-12, 12:12 PM

Games to Watch 2/06/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)

NCAAB

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners OPEN +6 NOW +5

9:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +10 NOW +9.5

NBA

7:05pm 502 Washington Wizards OPEN -3.5 NOW -4

YTD: 70-49-1 59%

EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE: YTD: 3-1

NCAAB

7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners 1ST H ML OPEN +145 NOW +140

NHL

8:05pm 54 Phoenix Coyotes ML OPEN +125 NOW +110 & +1.5

**Rose'** · 02-06-12, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Games to Watch 2/06/12 Based on this: 1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. 2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement. 3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book. 4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT) NCAAB 7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners OPEN +6 NOW +5 9:00pm 528 Depaul Blue Demons OPEN +10 NOW +9.5 NBA 7:05pm 502 Washington Wizards OPEN -3.5 NOW -4 YTD: 70-49-1 59% EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE: YTD: 3-1 NCAAB 7:00pm 524 Oklahoma Sooners 1ST H ML OPEN +145 NOW +140 NHL 8:05pm 54 Phoenix Coyotes ML OPEN +125 NOW +110 & +1.5

Hey what about Orlando went from +2 to pick em 71% on Clippers on sportsinteraction

**DirkDiggs** · 02-06-12, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Annnnnd now uConn isn't RLM

:

How is not RLM?

**DirkDiggs** · 02-06-12, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

- The only thing, well not the only thing I wish I could find would be RPI stats on the internet for free. I think I need to incorporate the strength of schedule of each team into the spreadsheet. That's very important IMO but I can't seem to find them for free anywhere. Anyone know of a place to find strength of schedule on the internet for free?

Really love the spreadsheet!

R U familiar with Sagarin, he uses a strength of schedule index...

Page Not Found (404) | USA TODAY

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1112.htm

**wiseguy007** · 02-06-12, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by Rose'

Hey what about Orlando went from +2 to pick em 71% on Clippers on sportsinteraction

that is not RLM, ORL would have to go to -2 for it to be a play, the line moving the right way in that game.

**wiseguy007** · 02-06-12, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by DirkDiggs

How is not RLM?

it is but the % of bets is not 63% and up so its not a play

**R19** · 02-06-12, 01:42 PM

Yes, be careful on watching Orlando and Portland. They opened as favorites.

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by DirkDiggs

Really love the spreadsheet!

R U familiar with Sagarin, he uses a strength of schedule index...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1112.htm

Wow Diggs great find, I was looking for something just like this. I noticed this is updated thru Feb 5th does he update this everyday?

Thanks!

**crockje** · 02-06-12, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

I guess I'll just attach the spreadsheet.... Let's see if this works. I didn't do one of 8 or under just the .5 points up to 9.5. Seems as though the under 7.5 spread is still the best ratio thus far! How is the 8 spread doing? Is anyone keeping track of that? Sorry just realized I attached my statistics spreadsheet also (Sports_2)... I like finding the games with RLM then comparing the two teams involved in the game by their statistics. All you have to do is update each sheet when you open the file. Data-> Connections -> refresh each connection. It will auto update the teams stats. Then goto the TOTAL tab and type in the two names and compare their numbers any way you like. I have to say I've been looking pretty much solely at their Offensive points differences and their Defensive points allowed differences. comparing those two numbers to come up with a rough spread for the game. And surprisingly that spread is usually right on with what the games open at. If they're RLM qualified and theres a greater difference in the books spread and my spread on the spreadsheet I tend to like the game more. This has been working pretty well for me. For instance.... I just looked at the connecticut vs louisville game. After updating the sheet ... 1.) Louisville is expected to win by 2.186 points offensively 2.) Connecticut is expected to allow .853 less points defensively. 3.) after subtracting the two I see that Louisville is expected to probably win by 1.5 points or so. 4.) After comparing the spread to that calculation (roughly) 2.5 pt difference right now, I look at the two teams Effective Field Goals, and True Shooting Percentages, which I think are great indicators of the actual skill of the team. Connecticut has Louisville beat in both of those categories, and I think this will be a game worth betting on. Also I'm finding it more important to look at the # of possessions and compare. Louisville averages on the year 5 more possessions than connecticut does, After looking thru the numbers I've decided connecticut has a better offense (1.07 points per possession) and Louisville has a better defense (.89 points allowed on each drive). Should be a good game to watch and I'm thinking that if uConn can get a lot of possessions they should be a sure thing. - I forgot to mention to look at the turnovers also, I usually put this into my equation when I am trying to find my calculated point spread. Connecticut turns over the ball 2 times less than Louisville does. which in my equation would actually give Connecticut the edge for the outright win. - The only thing, well not the only thing I wish I could find would be RPI stats on the internet for free. I think I need to incorporate the strength of schedule of each team into the spreadsheet. That's very important IMO but I can't seem to find them for free anywhere. Anyone know of a place to find strength of schedule on the internet for free? Sorry for the long post, know this probably doesn't really apply to RLM but I figured I'd give my two cents.

detroit are you going to add every team to this sheet or is it just for certain teams? Great job on this! Are you gonna be posting this daily as you update it? Really love the idea of sheet

**Laissez Faire** · 02-06-12, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Games to Watch 2/06/12

NHL

8:05pm 54 Phoenix Coyotes ML OPEN +125 NOW +110 & +1.5

This isn't really a play to me b/c %'s are too close (49% Red Wings / 51% Coyotes)

Last night was the first losing night for my hockey extra plays. Hopefully this will be a good week.

2/5 Jets +1.5 LOSS
2/5 Jets +110 LOSS
2/4 Edmonton +1.5 WIN
2/4 Edmonton +135 WIN
2/3 Islanders +1.5 WIN
2/3 Islanders +130 WIN
2/3 Blue Jackets +1.5 WIN
2/3 Blue Jackets +180 WIN

6-2 75%

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by crockje

detroit are you going to add every team to this sheet or is it just for certain teams? Great job on this! Are you gonna be posting this daily as you update it? Really love the idea of sheet

Hey crockje, I don't know which spreadsheet you're looking at, but all of the teams should be on the Sports2 spreadsheet already. They're stats are listed on the different tabs on the bottom (file opens displaying the total tab I believe). All you should have to do is press refresh data and enter the team names that are playing. If you're talking about the Sports_Data spreadsheet I'll probably leave that the way it is but just update the stats everyday. And yeah I'll post them in here sure, probably weekly.

**crockje** · 02-06-12, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Hey crockje, I don't know which spreadsheet you're looking at, but all of the teams should be on the Sports2 spreadsheet already. They're stats are listed on the different tabs on the bottom (file opens displaying the total tab I believe). All you should have to do is press refresh data and enter the team names that are playing. If you're talking about the Sports_Data spreadsheet I'll probably leave that the way it is but just update the stats everyday. And yeah I'll post them in here sure, probably weekly.

sorry bro I tried typing in for appalachian st. Didn't realize that you had it with state not abbrievated. Thanks a lot info is great

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

This isn't really a play to me b/c %'s are too close (49% Red Wings / 51% Coyotes)

Last night was the first losing night for my hockey extra plays. Hopefully this will be a good week.

2/5 Jets +1.5 LOSS
2/5 Jets +110 LOSS
2/4 Edmonton +1.5 WIN
2/4 Edmonton +135 WIN
2/3 Islanders +1.5 WIN
2/3 Islanders +130 WIN
2/3 Blue Jackets +1.5 WIN
2/3 Blue Jackets +180 WIN

6-2 75%

Hey Laissez,
Did you post this hockey strategy you're using somewhere in the thread? Having a hard time finding it. If not, maybe an explanation?

**Child's Play** · 02-06-12, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

that is not RLM, ORL would have to go to -2 for it to be a play, the line moving the right way in that game.

Yes it is.. If 71% is on clippers then the magic should be getting more points ... Instead it went from them gettin points to a pk... That's rlm

**crockje** · 02-06-12, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Hey crockje, I don't know which spreadsheet you're looking at, but all of the teams should be on the Sports2 spreadsheet already. They're stats are listed on the different tabs on the bottom (file opens displaying the total tab I believe). All you should have to do is press refresh data and enter the team names that are playing. If you're talking about the Sports_Data spreadsheet I'll probably leave that the way it is but just update the stats everyday. And yeah I'll post them in here sure, probably weekly.

Det where are you getting the stats from?

**crockje** · 02-06-12, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Child's Play

Yes it is.. If 71% is on clippers then the magic should be getting more points ... Instead it went from them gettin points to a pk... That's rlm

not sure what you are looking at but on freesportsbet it opened at -1 for magic it has since gone to +1 with 69% on clippers that is moving in the right direction

**Child's Play** · 02-06-12, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by crockje

not sure what you are looking at but on freesportsbet it opened at -1 for magic it has since gone to +1 with 69% on clippers that is moving in the right direction

I was just responding to what the guy claimed... Haven't even looked at that game but if what he said was true, then he'd be correct

**Child's Play** · 02-06-12, 04:02 PM

Just looked at it and I see exactly what you see sir

**detroitigerz** · 02-06-12, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by crockje

Det where are you getting the stats from?

(this is link for the posessions per game data) http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats...avg&stat_type=

Absolutely awesome website, all of the data i use is from there except now this usatoday schedule that diggs pointed out to me! They update their site everyday so that stats should be reliable.