RLM System Plays

[Night-Tripper]

NCAAB


7pm Iowa St / OK St under 139 WIN
7pm Clemson -4 1st half LOSS
7pm Maryland / Clemson under 135 WIN
7pm Florida / Kentucky over 141.5 LOSS
8pm Creighton / Evansville over 154 LOSS
8pm Texas Tech / Kansas St over 129.5 LOSS
8pm Villanova / Providence under 156 WIN
8:05pm Evansville +3 1st half WIN
9pm Purdue +14.5 WIN
9pm Purdue +8.5 1st half WIN


NBA

7pm Pacers -9 LOSS
7:30pm Heat -13.5 WIN
7:30pm Heat / Cavs under 199.5 WIN
7:30pm Bobcats +14 WIN
7:30pm Bobcats +8 1st half WIN
7:30pm Bobcats +4.5 1st qt LOSS
8pm Bucks -7.5 LOSS
10:30pm Warriors +2.5 LOSS
10:30pm Warriors +110 1st qt WIN
10:30pm Warriors +1.5 1st half LOSS


NHL

7pm Columbus Blue Jackets +100 WIN
7pm New York Islanders +1.5 (-185) WIN
7:30pm Tampa Bay Lightning -105 LOSS
7:30pm Montreal Canadiens +120 WIN
8:30pm Winnipeg Jets -115 WIN
8:30pm Phoenix Coyotes +125 WIN



16-10 tonight
5-1 NHL

Good job! Lost 4 units yesterday and started off this betting week +5.

I'm liking the fact that with so many games tomorrow.. we shouldn't have to be checking plays up until tipoff.

[R19]

Rough start to the week for the last 3 weeks. Considering starting mid-week or at least playing smaller depending on the schedule. There is most likely a strong correlation between the number of scheduled games and win rate.

[detroitigerz]

2/7

Went 4-2 last night... not thrilled with the way it panned out though for some reason haha. Guess I'll see how my picks go tonight.

Providence +8.5 x1 WIN
Alabama -5 x1 WIN
Maryland +8 x1 WIN
Iowa State +2 x1 PUSH
Creighton -5.5 x1 LOSS
Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 x1 LOSS
Oklahoma City Thunder -3 x1 PUSH
Phoenix Suns +7.5 x1 WIN

4-2-2 to start

[wiseguy007]

RECORD UPDATE: 2/7/12

NCAAB

7:00pm 718 Clemson Tigers OPEN -8 NOW -8.5 L

9:00PM 727 Purdue Boilermakers OPEN +16 NOW +14.5 W


NBA

7:35 pm 705 Charlotte Bobcats OPEN +14.5 NOW +14 W

10:35pm 712 Golden State Warriors OPEN +3 NOW +2 L

RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%


EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE:

YTD: 6-4

RECORD 2/6/12: 2-1

RCORD 2/7/12: 1-2


NHL

7:05pm 3 New York Islanders ML OPEN +165 NOW +155 W

7:05pm 7 Florida Panthers ML OPEN +145 NOW +125 L

7:35pm 14 Ottawa Senators ML OPEN +105 NOW -105 L

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE FOR 2/8/12 12:53PM

Games to Watch 2/08/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing

them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF

YOU WANT)



NCAAB

6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +12.5


NBA

7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5


RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%


EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE:

YTD: 6-4

RECORD 2/6/12: 2-1

RCORD 2/7/12: 1-2

[PAULYPOKER]

NCAAB
JAMES MADISON+6½ -101

HOFSTRA+9 -102

CENTRAL MICHIGAN+5 -102

BALL STATE-4 -105

ST. BONAVENTuRE+3 -102

RICE-2 -105

DUKE+6½ -108 huge!! 5x

NBA
DETROIT PISTONS+3½ -109

TORONTO RAPTORS+1½ -104

[Laissez Faire]

Good job! Lost 4 units yesterday and started off this betting week +5.

I'm liking the fact that with so many games tomorrow.. we shouldn't have to be checking plays up until tipoff.

agreed

[wiseguy007]

NCAAB
JAMES MADISON+6½ -101

HOFSTRA+9 -102

CENTRAL MICHIGAN+5 -102

BALL STATE-4 -105

ST. BONAVENTuRE+3 -102

RICE-2 -105

NBA
DETROIT PISTONS+3½ -109

TORONTO RAPTORS+1½ -104

What are you posting here?

[detroitigerz]

Alright I had good luck yesterday with my adapted RLM strategy.... I've basically been using the RLM to find the games then the strength of schedule and other statistics to decide whether or not to play. Based on this I am taking a big card tonight, I've found that when I find it's an RLM game (to me it's just simply line movement thats only requirement), I look at it. Then I don't necessarily pick the side the sharps are betting on. I make my own analysis, mainly based on sagarin's strength of schedule and ratings/my own possessions*offensive points per possession...possessions*defensive points allowed .... other things of this nature.

2/7

Today's plays:

Timberwolves(Minnesota) +8 x1
Nets(NewJersey) -3.5 x1
Heat(Miami) -4 x1
MissouriSt -3.5 x1
HoustonU +2 x1
Arkansas +1.5 x1
Virginia -14 x1
FloridaSt -12.5 x1
Akron -2.5 x1
Buffalo -5 x1
MichiganSt -14.5 x1

4-2-2

[BrewMaster]

Where can you find the stats average offensive/defensive points per possession? Thanks!

[wiseguy007]

Where can you find the stats average offensive/defensive points per possession? Thanks!

http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx

[wiseguy007]

Alright I had good luck yesterday with my adapted RLM strategy.... I've basically been using the RLM to find the games then the strength of schedule and other statistics to decide whether or not to play. Based on this I am taking a big card tonight, I've found that when I find it's an RLM game (to me it's just simply line movement thats only requirement), I look at it. Then I don't necessarily pick the side the sharps are betting on. I make my own analysis, mainly based on sagarin's strength of schedule and ratings/my own possessions*offensive points per possession...possessions*defensive points allowed .... other things of this nature.

2/7

Today's plays:

Timberwolves(Minnesota) +8 x1
Nets(NewJersey) -3.5 x1
Heat(Miami) -4 x1
MissouriSt -3.5 x1
HoustonU +2 x1
Arkansas +1.5 x1
Virginia -14 x1
FloridaSt -12.5 x1
Akron -2.5 x1
Buffalo -5 x1
MichiganSt -14.5 x1

4-2-2

I like what your doing here, I think you got a good system here.

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE 3:47PM

Games to Watch 2/08/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing

them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF

YOU WANT)



NCAAB

6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +12.5

7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)


NBA

7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5


RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%

[Night-Tripper]

UPDATE FOR 2/8/12 12:53PM

Games to Watch 2/08/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing

them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF

YOU WANT)



NCAAB

6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +12.5


NBA

7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5


RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%


EXTRA PLAYS IF YOU LIKE:

YTD: 6-4

RECORD 2/6/12: 2-1

RCORD 2/7/12: 1-2

[Night-Tripper]

[Night-Tripper]

UPDATE 3:47PM

Games to Watch 2/08/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing

them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF

YOU WANT)



NCAAB

6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +12.5

7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)


NBA

7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5


RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%

Got some time today, so I thought I'd create a watch list of games that don't quite meet the criteria at the moment, but may before tipoff.

Toledo
WMU
Northeastern
Drake
SIU
South Carolina
Nebraska
CMU
Spurs

[Night-Tripper]

What are you posting here?

Although he blew his guaranteed winner in the Super Bow out of his azz, Pauly was pretty damn good when he was deliberately posting fades as locks during football season. Not sure how he's doing in hoops, but I'll guess we'll find out.

He may still be unhappy that we have this RLM thread going.

[wiseguy007]

Although he blew his guaranteed winner in the Super Bow out of his azz, Pauly was pretty damn good when he was deliberately posting fades as locks during football season. Not sure how he's doing in hoops, but I'll guess we'll find out.

He may still be unhappy that we have this RLM thread going.

Oh I got you now, he's one of those guys

[wiseguy007]

Here is a cool article I thought everyone would like to read, it is even from this forum.

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/news/reverse-line-movements-can-lead-big-profits-a-9202/

Most important thing on there is this:

At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point

League ..W.. L.. P.. Pct... Units
NFL 2008 ..18 .. 13.. 1 ..58.1%.. 2.83
NFL 2007 ..155.. 130.. 9.. 54.4%.. 18.62
NCAAF 2008 .. 137 .. 106.. 8.. 56.4%.. 17.51
NCAAF 2007 ..227.. 156.. 4.. 59.3%.. 49.49
NBA 2007-8.. 221.. 182.. 6.. 54.8%.. 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 ..272.. 203.. 11.. 57.3%.. 42.04

and for NHL/MLB

At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents

League .. W.. L.. P.. Pct... Units
MLB 2008 .. 518.. 600.. 0.. 46.3%.. 131.98
NHL 2008-9.. 1.. 0.. 0.. 100%.. 0.95
NHL 2007-8.. 224.. 229.. 0.. 49.4%.. 85.69
This is for 2007-2008 seasons as you can see, thought this was very telling.

[Night-Tripper]

Here is a cool article I thought everyone would like to read, it is even from this forum.

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/news/reverse-line-movements-can-lead-big-profits-a-9202/

Most important thing on there is this:

At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point

League ..W.. L.. P.. Pct... Units
NFL 2008 ..18 .. 13.. 1 ..58.1%.. 2.83
NFL 2007 ..155.. 130.. 9.. 54.4%.. 18.62
NCAAF 2008 .. 137 .. 106.. 8.. 56.4%.. 17.51
NCAAF 2007 ..227.. 156.. 4.. 59.3%.. 49.49
NBA 2007-8.. 221.. 182.. 6.. 54.8%.. 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 ..272.. 203.. 11.. 57.3%.. 42.04

and for NHL/MLB

At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents

League .. W.. L.. P.. Pct... Units
MLB 2008 .. 518.. 600.. 0.. 46.3%.. 131.98
NHL 2008-9.. 1.. 0.. 0.. 100%.. 0.95
NHL 2007-8.. 224.. 229.. 0.. 49.4%.. 85.69
This is for 2007-2008 seasons as you can see, thought this was very telling.

Cool... that's why I've been saying that I created some *fat* by using 63%. It's not a hard number, but it'll keep the winning percentages higher. Iwill also make a larger wager if the line moves are more than .5 point.

Good stuff!

[detroitigerz]

Here is a cool article I thought everyone would like to read, it is even from this forum.

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/news/reverse-line-movements-can-lead-big-profits-a-9202/

Most important thing on there is this:

At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point

League ..W.. L.. P.. Pct... Units
NFL 2008 ..18 .. 13.. 1 ..58.1%.. 2.83
NFL 2007 ..155.. 130.. 9.. 54.4%.. 18.62
NCAAF 2008 .. 137 .. 106.. 8.. 56.4%.. 17.51
NCAAF 2007 ..227.. 156.. 4.. 59.3%.. 49.49
NBA 2007-8.. 221.. 182.. 6.. 54.8%.. 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 ..272.. 203.. 11.. 57.3%.. 42.04

and for NHL/MLB

At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents

League .. W.. L.. P.. Pct... Units
MLB 2008 .. 518.. 600.. 0.. 46.3%.. 131.98
NHL 2008-9.. 1.. 0.. 0.. 100%.. 0.95
NHL 2007-8.. 224.. 229.. 0.. 49.4%.. 85.69
This is for 2007-2008 seasons as you can see, thought this was very telling.

Well done wiseguy I was looking for something like this, and I was thinking about knocking the parameters all the way down to a movement of at least 1 point, think that would be a good idea. Also, what does it mean about 10 cents?

good find!

[wiseguy007]

Well done wiseguy I was looking for something like this, and I was thinking about knocking the parameters all the way down to a movement of at least 1 point, think that would be a good idea. Also, what does it mean about 10 cents?

good find!

Thanks, it would mean you would want to see this:

open line +120 to +110 that would be a 10 cent movement.

[wiseguy007]

Cool... that's why I've been saying that I created some *fat* by using 63%. It's not a hard number, but it'll keep the winning percentages higher. Iwill also make a larger wager if the line moves are more than .5 point.

Good stuff!

Thanks, yeah that was a good idea to raise it to 63%.

[hkssupra69]

btw hofstra, wilmington and RI have all reached 3k bets making them valid i believe?

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE: 5:40PM

Games to Watch 2/08/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing

them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF

YOU WANT)



NCAAB

6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +13

7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9.5

7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6

7:00pm 539 Marshall Thundering Herd OPEN +4.5 NOW +4 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 542 Central Michigan Chippewas OPEN +6 NOW +5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 553 Northeastern Huskies (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5

O/U:

7:00pm 561 Georgetown Hoyas/562 Syracuse Orange OPEN 130.5 NOW 129 - PLAY UNDER 129 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)


NBA

7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5

O/U:

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons/514 New Jersey Nets OPEN 184.5 NOW 187.5 - PLAY OVER 187.5 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)


RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%

[CallMeMrOMac]

Fade the Raptors. Don't overthink it.

[DirkDiggs]

I was thinking about knocking the parameters all the way down to a movement of at least 1 point, think that would be a good idea.

I'm not so sure about this.

As presently constructed this system with the .5 threshold is winning at a higher rate than the 1 pt threshold. I'd stick to a half point. 54% is barely beating the vig...

It's definitely worth tracking though...

[Night-Tripper]

I'm not so sure about this.

As presently constructed this system with the .5 threshold is winning at a higher rate than the 1 pt threshold. I'd stick to a half point. 54% is barely beating the vig...

It's definitely worth tracking though...

Agreed... 63% @ .5 is more profitable than 60% @ 1. No matter what anyone does, they're never going to have 90% winners.

[Night-Tripper]

1st half: GWU +7 W
1st half: Hofstra +5.5
1st half: Rhode Island +8

GWU +14
Hofstra +9.5
Rhode Island +14.5
CMU +5
CMU +185
South Carolina +7
South Carolina +265

Pistons +3.5
Pistons +135
Raptors +1.5

Bruins -1.5/+170
Ducks -1.5/+180

Will edit this as I add more plays

[Laissez Faire]

I'm entering into a local picks challenge tonight (50 picks + some extras from me) for a chance to win tickets to All Star game....I did actually play about 2/3 of these bets with a coworker, so we definitely have some money on the line tonight...thought I would share the conclusions that my research has brought me to...GL to all tonight

NCAAB
7pm George Washington +13
7pm George Washington 1st half +7
7pm Memphis -5.5
7pm Memphis / ECU under 139.5
7pm ODU / W&M under 121.5
7pm Penn St / Michigan St under 125.5
7pm Hofstra +9.5
7pm Hofstra 1st half +5.5
7pm Kent St / E. Michigan under 119.5
7pm Ohio -7.5
7pm Ohio / Toledo over 136
7pm C. Michigan 1st half +2.5
7pm C. Michigan 1st half +145
7pm C. Michigan +5
7pm NC Wilmington +6
7pm NC Wilmington 1st half +3
7pm Akron -3
7pm Rhode Island +14.5
7pm Rhode Island +8 1st half
7pm Pitt / USF under 124
7:30pm Wake Forest / Virginia over 117.5
8pm Houston +2
8pm Houston +115
8pm So. Illinois 1st half +2
8pm So. Miss / UAB over 119.5
8pm TCU +2
8pm TCU +115
8pm N. Illinois +8.5
8pm Tennessee -7
8pm N. Iowa / Wichita St under 131
8pm South Carolina / Tennessee over 120.5
8:05pm Drake / Illinois St over 129.5
9pm UTEP +110
9pm Tulsa / UTEP over 122.5
9pm Notre Dame / West VA over 127


NBA
7:05pm Wizards 1st qt -115
7:05 pm Heat -4
7:05pm Raptors 1st half +100
7:05pm Raptors +105
7:05pm Clippers -6
7:05pm Spurs 1st qt +120
7:05pm Spurs 1st half +2
7:35pm Pistons 1st qt +1
7:35pm Pistons 1st qt +115
7:35pm Pistons 1st half +2
7:35pm Pistons 1st half +125
7:35pm Pistons +3.5
7:35pm Pacers +3.5
10:05pm Rockets 1st qt +2
10:05pm Rockets 1st half +4


NHL
7:30pm Detroit Red Wings -1.5 (+125)
10pm Anaheim Ducks -150
10pm Carolina Hurricanes / Anaheim Ducks over 5.5 (+110)

[Galante118]

so whats the final card lookin like! im ready to make some money tonight boys! BOL to us!

[rglopez]

South Carolina is a play also +7.5 to +7

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE 6:57PM

Games to Watch 2/08/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing

them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF

YOU WANT)



NCAAB

6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +13

7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9

7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6

7:00pm 539 Marshall Thundering Herd OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 542 Central Michigan Chippewas OPEN +6 NOW +5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)

8:00pm 589 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +7.5 NOW +7

O/U:

7:00pm 561 Georgetown Hoyas/562 Syracuse Orange OPEN 130.5 NOW 129 - PLAY UNDER 129 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)

NBA

7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5

O/U:

7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons/514 New Jersey Nets OPEN 184.5 NOW 187.5 - PLAY OVER 187.5 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)


RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2

RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1

YTD: 73-52-1 59%

PLAYS TO TRACK: NHL

7:35pm 51 Edmonton Oilers PL +1.5 -140 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)

[Galante118]

hey wiseguy for the system record thats 59% does that include the spreads over 8 and 11 or no? what exactly are you playing. just wanna get the system down correctly, thanks for the help

[crazed]

laissez,which of the hockey games are your favorite? Are you betting them all same $?