Originally posted by wiseguy007
SIU
Nebraska
Rockets
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2-8-12 Watch List:
SIU
Nebraska
RocketsComment -
Wondering if anyone knows where SBR get their consensus figures from, because they are at times completely different from the consensus on freesportsbet, for example the Hofstra game tonight, fsb has George mason 77% Hofstra 23% with the line moving from -11 to -9 makes Hofstra definitely a play, but SBR consensus has George Mason 45% Hofstra 55% making it definitely not a play under this system, this makes a big difference so which figures do we believe, let me know if i'm missing something..but love the system you guys got going here..Comment -
I don't really trust SBR's percentages... their advertising base are the sports books... which is one reason I went looking elsewhere.Originally posted by maroonaComment -
UPDATE 7:49PM
Games to Watch 2/08/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing
them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF
YOU WANT)
NCAAB
6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +13
7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9
7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6
7:00pm 539 Marshall Thundering Herd OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
7:00pm 542 Central Michigan Chippewas OPEN +6 NOW +5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
8:00pm 578 Northern Illinois Huskies OPEN +9 NOW +8.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
8:00pm 589 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +7.5 NOW +7
O/U:
7:00pm 561 Georgetown Hoyas/562 Syracuse Orange OPEN 130.5 NOW 129 - PLAY UNDER 129 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)
NBA
7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3
O/U:
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons/514 New Jersey Nets OPEN 184.5 NOW 187.5 - PLAY OVER 187.5 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)
RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2
RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1
YTD: 73-52-1 59%Comment -
Adding:Originally posted by Night-Tripper
1st half: Northern Illinois +5
Northern Illinois +8
Northern Illinois +290Comment -
FYI, SBR's percentages are notoriously off. I personally don't think it's collusion, I just don't they are updated with enough frequency. OTOH, I'm not terribly convinced that freesportsbet is the best indicator of where the sharp money is either...Originally posted by maroonaComment -
Originally posted by DirkDiggs
59% ain't good enough?Comment -
Don't quote me on this, but I think that they use 5dimes for their consensus info.Originally posted by maroonaComment -
From perusing the site, it seems that the consensus data is culled from the people betting essentially play money at freesportsbet. I'm just not convinced that the betting trends their reveal sharp vs. square, more likely just the consensus of a bunch of squares. There certainly isn't anything wrong with betting the other side of a bunch of squares though...Originally posted by Night-TripperComment -
Any idea what is the best indicator?Originally posted by DirkDiggsComment -
Adding:Originally posted by Night-Tripper
1st half: Northern Illinois +5
Northern Illinois +8
Northern Illinois +290
Adding:
2nd period: Bruins -.5/+125
1st period: Ducks -.5/+140
1st period: Sharks -.5/+125
Sharks -1.5/+155Comment -
Yes it does include the plays over 8 and 11pt and no problem.Originally posted by Galante118
Good Luck to us.
Comment -
UPDATE
Games to Watch 2/08/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing
them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF
YOU WANT)
NCAAB
6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +13 W
7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9 L
7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6 L
7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 L
8:00pm 589 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +7.5 NOW +7
O/U:
7:00pm 561 Georgetown Hoyas/562 Syracuse Orange OPEN 130.5 NOW 129 - PLAY UNDER 129 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE) W
NBA
7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3
O/U:
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons/514 New Jersey Nets OPEN 184.5 NOW 187.5 - PLAY OVER 187.5 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)
RECORD 2/8/12: 2-5
RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2
RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1
YTD: 75-57-1 57%Comment -
Hope you all listened to me.Originally posted by CallMeMrOMacComment -
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Adding:
1st half: Rockets +4
Rockets +8
Rockets +295Comment -
Tough night. Good luck tomorrow.Comment -
Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
Comment -
just getting home from Magic game & drinks after...what a 3 pt shooting display (even though I lost my Heat bet haha)
For 2/8Originally posted by Laissez Faire
29-22-2 overall 54.7%
17-16-2 ncaab 48.57%
9-6 nba 60%
2-1 nhl 66%
NHL YTD 11-5 68.75%
Comment -
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Even with my idiotic puck plays, I managed to eek out a small win thanks to my moneyline plays in hoops.
On to tomorrow...
Comment -
Originally posted by Laissez Faire
Comment -
It's a dead solidOriginally posted by Night-Tripper
for tonight with 52 college and 4 pro games. Just need to stay focused and play what we know. Enjoying the thread so far but some of these later post are getting out there.
Comment -
Originally posted by SMU77It's a dead solid for tonight with 52 college and 4 pro games. Just need to stay focused and play what we know. Enjoying the thread so far but some of these later post are getting out there.
What?
Comment -
I'm going to start deferring to you for college bball....I seem to have good grasp of NBA and solid grasp of NHL....but college hoops has been up & down for me since December this seasonOriginally posted by Night-TripperComment -
You are correct. I asked SBR live chat and that is what they said.Originally posted by chilidogComment -
Well here were my plays from last night, first night in a while I wasn't 50%... think I just stepped out too far and took to many games for my liking. Although this morning when I looked if I would have played EVERY NCAA game (except more heard state can't find any info on them)last night I would have been 20-16 so not throwing out the system quite yet.
Timberwolves(Minnesota) +8 x1 WIN
Nets(NewJersey) -3.5 x1 LOSS
Heat(Miami) -4 x1 LOSS
MissouriSt -3.5 x1 LOSS
HoustonU +2 x1 LOSS
Arkansas +1.5 x1 LOSS
Virginia -14 x1 WIN
FloridaSt -12.5 x1 LOSS
Akron -2.5 x1 WON
Buffalo -5 x1 LOSS
MichiganSt -14.5 x1 WIN
...ewww
(8-9-2) ...ewww
I am going to start keeping track of my record against the original RLM strategy I was using before... which was working great, I really don't know why I strayed from it in the first place. I haven't checked the RLM plays for the last few days but I am going to back and update my spreadsheet now... I'll post when done.
Hope EVERYONE had a better night than me, looks like pauly did congrats!
Comment -
Sorry, I was just talkin to night-trippin. Have to keep him focused on the job at hand.Originally posted by Laissez FaireWhat?
Comment -
Alright everyone, I just spent the last 3 hours re-doing this spreadsheet haha, I have to say I kind of turned my head on RLM but after looking at the ratios compared to how I was doing I think what you guys started with is the way to go (at least for the moment being), games 63% or more, 3000 total bets or more, and at least 1 point of line movement, AND a spread = or under 8 are 16-9 since 1/21! and if you take out the spread requirement, but leave everything else the same, RLM is 42-27! I should specify I'm only looking at college basketball games as of right now so all my figures are from that.
Going to be doing what I was ORIGINALLY going to try from now on.
Only betting the .5 or more games, and doubling down on games with 1 or more.
BOL all!
... this minnesota game is mind boggling to me so far today. Wisconsin is way better than them..?Comment -
He be referring to my jaunts out into Puckland...Originally posted by Laissez FaireWhat?Comment -
Originally posted by detroitigerz
I got owned by my own forum newbness....All I want to do was say thanks for the spreadsheet.
Comment -
Not a problem. As you've noticed.. I like moneylines... a little more risk, but much greater returns.Originally posted by Laissez Faire
In return, I'm gonna watch for your NHL plays and tail you when you're playing something with + odds.Comment -
I'm going to give wiseguy an assist while he's out of pocket. After last night, we stand at 75-57-1 for this thread.
2-9-12 hoops plays as of 1410 CDT:
Kings
FAU
WKU
Watch List:
Northern Colorado
USC
Illinois
Tennessee State
Santa Clara
Portland
Fairfield
College of Charleston
NC Greensboro
Comment -
Hey Night-tripper,Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Are you using RLM when you look at the basketball money lines? How have you done compared to the spread? I thought about using RLM for money lines and totals but I was just curious as to how those do compared to the spread.
Thanks for the input.
In other news I've been working on my spreadsheet more and more, hoping to get it back a few months at least but it seems to be taking a lot longer than I thought it would, =/.Comment -
I don't compare percentages when playing moneylines... I just use the spread percentages. Whenever I see what I consider to be a live dog, I just toss 30% to 50% of whatever I'm playing on the spread on the moneyline.Originally posted by detroitigerz
For example... last night Pauly was 4-5 and a lot of people are giving him props for going 5x on Duke, which allowed him to show a profit. If I really liked Duke, I would have played them for 1x or 1.5x and then tossed 30% to 50% on the moneyline. More bang for the buck at less financial risk.
These are the games that I played spread/moneyline on last night:
Rockets +8/450 = won 450
Rockets +295/200 = Won 590
Northern Illinois +8/450 = Won 450
Northern Illinois +290/200 = Won 580
South Carolina +7/450 = Lost 495
South Carolina +265/200 = Lost 200
Pistons +3.5/450 = Won 450
Pistons +135/200 = Won 270
CMU +5/450 = Won 450
CMU +165/200 = Lost 200
Sometimes I'll lose both (as in the case of South Carolina last night), but my plan is to at least hit the spread, which will guarantee me a positive win for the wagers. And... if they actually win the game, I'll have a nice payday with minimal cash risk. The only time I'll go large with no moneyline play is on a favorite... not worth the financial risk versus reward.
I haven't done any exact statistical research... but I'm pretty sure that a large enough number of +3 -> +8 dogs win when they cover... which has made my system profitable for me. If I don't feel good about a dog, I'll just play the spread.
Long story short... I don't look for RLM when it comes to moneylines... I base my plays off of the RLM on the spread.Comment -
Would not play USC even with a gun to my head! They SUCK...Originally posted by Night-TripperComment -
Minnesota is no longer a play at this time. WKU has become a play.Originally posted by Night-TripperComment
