RLM System Plays

[Night-Tripper]

Great call. Gotta love an epic meltdown like that one.

To be honest... I am ashamed to have admitted that I made that play. But, it wasn't the first time that I have done it and I know it won't be the last... may do it again tomorrow night.

Anyone else here play live lines when your team has gotten behind and you want to see if you can snatch a w out of your azz?

[wiseguy007]

Dude... I'm not kidding... I really feel bad for you. You made the right play and I had no business winning this game. Hell, I shouldn't even have covered the second half line. I just kept studying the percentages after Golden State became the favorite... and when the Grizzlies +2.5 started getting juiced up to -125, I decided that there was some serious money coming in on Memphis (and it was confirmed in my mind by the fact that the betting numbers were going up on the Warriors, but the line wasn't changing... they were just making you pay to have the Grizzlies... kind of a reverse-reverse RLM. That's when I decided not to play the Warriors. From then on, as I stated earlier... I wanted them to get down by 5 -> 9 so that I could get a nice moneyline price. As soon as I got it in, they went belly up and I avoided the +600 that was offered, because I figured they were going to get trashed.

Don't worry... keep doing what you're doing... the ball will bounce in your/our direction.

I'm going to keep playing the system plays per the new guidelines... but if I make a play based on the original premise in my first post... I'll post them in this thread and state that I am going outside the new box, but still staying within the original set.

Nice job my friend, that was a great call.
Im liking ur thought process very smart

[Night-Tripper]

Nice job my friend, that was a great call.
Im liking ur thought process very smart

Thanks... I never lie about how I'm doing (Or what I'm winning or losing) and I do stick to base bets of 385 with no bet larger than 825. However, I do love to make live line plays when I think the payoff is worth the risk. Picked up a lot of coin this past week playing system plays and then tossing some coin on my team when they were down, but I felt they could win.

I fully agree with the guidlines you suggested though... that's the SMART way to go about this. People may scoff at 3-2, but it was still a winning night for those following this thread.

[southpaw74]

What book do you use? I need to get back to 5dimes. I'm currently at bet islands but they don't have live lines. Their free half points are nice though.

[Night-Tripper]

What book do you use? I need to get back to 5dimes. I'm currently at bet islands but they don't have live lines. Their free half points are nice though.

I use sportsbettingdotcom

Forgot... their new address is sportsbettingdotag

You'll be rediected by using the first address

[R19]

012311 RLM System Plays. I was busy and used 63%, at least 3,000 total, and static line or adverse line movement AND put some plays in too early because of my schedule.

NCAAB: Hofstra W, Iona L, Northeastern L, Citadel W, NC Wilm W. 3-2
NBA: WIZ L, NOLA W, MIL L, HOU W, DET L, PHX L. 2-4
Total: 5-6

BUT, Iona was a Lang Fade Play and Northeastern was a Mighty Quinn Fade Play and I put those in early in the day and held regardless. A rare two day streak for both Lang and Quinn. Iona would not have qualified based on RLM which would have made:

NCAAB: 3-1
NBA: 2-4
Total: 5-5

I think I should at least tighten it up for NBA and/or buy points.

[Night-Tripper]

If that's true then could you start calling it out and putting a unit next to it? The first Saturday this started the a.m. games hit like 6-2. Then it bottomed out and ended up being a losing day. I would love to know what you're doing and write it on here so we can all get in on it.

It actually started in dozer's *I'm gonna start charging thread* Friday evening when I posted seven system plays and went 6-1. However, as far as a standalone thread created for us to all participate together, you're right.

Wizards
Bucks
Youngstown State
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Marist
Kings
Timberwolves

Free...

[Night-Tripper]

012311 RLM System Plays. I was busy and used 63%, at least 3,000 total, and static line or adverse line movement AND put some plays in too early because of my schedule.

NCAAB: Hofstra W, Iona L, Northeastern L, Citadel W, NC Wilm W. 3-2
NBA: WIZ L, NOLA W, MIL L, HOU W, DET L, PHX L. 2-4
Total: 5-6

BUT, Iona was a Lang Fade Play and Northeastern was a Mighty Quinn Fade Play and I put those in early in the day and held regardless. A rare two day streak for both Lang and Quinn. Iona would not have qualified based on RLM which would have made:

NCAAB: 3-1
NBA: 2-4
Total: 5-5

I think I should at least tighten it up for NBA and/or buy points.

I would never recommend buying points... but that's just me. Takes too big of a cut out of your potential profits.

[R19]

I would never recommend buying points... but that's just me. Takes too big of a cut out of your potential profits.

Thanks, just getting back into all this. Killed it during bowl season were I was straight calling games based on my analysis with some points bought here and there. I have successfully traded NBA games, but pre-game? I think basketball is the most rigged out of everything.

The problem I have is that many games start while I am still in the middle of the business day so weekdays are tough.

[Night-Tripper]

Thanks, just getting back into all this. Killed it during bowl season were I was straight calling games based on my analysis with some points bought here and there. I have successfully traded NBA games, but pre-game? I think basketball is the most rigged out of everything.

The problem I have is that many games start while I am still in the middle of the business day so weekdays are tough.

Yeah... I have a tough time while I'm at work also... all gambling related sites are blocked... so I've resorted to bringing my laptop and using an air card to evade that process. Unfortunately, there are still times that I'm gonna be sol. Then I have to rely on my wife to provide me with the correct plays. Unfortunately, although I had a winning day in hoops on Sunday... four of my wins was because she misinterpreted the system plays... so I'm going to do my best to refrain from using her.

[R19]

Guys I think we should make some changes to the system let me know what you think:

I think the line needs to move at least .5 point to be a play instead of just static
63% or higher betting
Min 3000 bets on one side

When to avoid:
If a key player is injured/or team bus gets stuck ie purdue
if the spead is greater then 15 do not choose under dog

A couple of people were using system like this on sbr and covers and it seemed to be profitable

It would be great to know the percentage of dogs that win in NCAAB and NBA when given 10, 11, 12, 13, etc. points. Thinking that spread limit for NBA should be much lower than 15. More like 12 or 13 - even 10.

[therocket]

Yeah... I have a tough time while I'm at work also... all gambling related sites are blocked... so I've resorted to bringing my laptop and using an air card to evade that process. Unfortunately, there are still times that I'm gonna be sol. Then I have to rely on my wife to provide me with the correct plays. Unfortunately, although I had a winning day in hoops on Sunday... four of my wins was because she misinterpreted the system plays... so I'm going to do my best to refrain from using her.

iPhone!!!

[crockje]

It would be great to know the percentage of dogs that win in NCAAB and NBA when given 10, 11, 12, 13, etc. points. Thinking that spread limit for NBA should be much lower than 15. More like 12 or 13 - even 10.

I agree here maybe nba we make cut of 13 points. NCAA bb 15

[crockje]

Tripper hell of a call last night! My local doesn't offer live bets on basketball so missed it. Switching to online book this week need more options

[blackout31]

Michigan's line is fishy as all hell. What the hell?

[Blood Drake]

Michigan's line is fishy as all hell. What the hell?

Just noticed that as well. Public is betting large on Michigan but the line moved to +5 Michigan.

[blackout31]

Baylor is weird too, but not as weird as Michigan.

[Aristocles]

Others:

561/562 O/U has gone from 130 1/2 to 128 with ~65% public on O, likely VERY small sample.
559/560 TX U -7 to -8 yet ~78% on IA St
555/556 Wyoming pk to -2.5 with ~32% on then

FL and Was MLs in the NHL also exhibit these qualities. . .

[justwinthisone]

sd state has 67% on them, around 7000 plays between both. line started at around pk and now sd state is +2.5.....i know there is a lot of time b4 this game for this stuff to change but would that not be a large play on wyoming -2.5?

[crockje]

sd state has 67% on them, around 7000 plays between both. line started at around pk and now sd state is +2.5.....i know there is a lot of time b4 this game for this stuff to change but would that not be a large play on wyoming -2.5?

Lang is on sd state also just more of reason to pound wyoming

[justwinthisone]

Lang is on sd state also just more of reason to pound wyoming

plus sd state stuck on bus bc of snow....same as purdue the other day

[Dom177]

Most of the lines are fukked up for today, Wyoming, michigan, Miami, even kentucky moved opposite a little bit

[crockje]

Games watching right now:

Ncaa
Purdue -5 opened at -4.5 65% on Michigan over 3000 bets......open play if line holds
Oklahoma +5.5 opened at +5.5 81% on Baylor over 3000 bets......no play unless line moves
Wyoming -2.5 opened at +1 71% on San Diego St over 3000 bets.......open play if line holds
Georgia Tech +1.5 opened at +1.5 72% on miami under 3000 bets.......need more bets/line movement
Georgia +12 opened at +12.5 71% on Kentucky over 3000 bets......open play if line holds

[Night-Tripper]

As of 1530 CDT, this is what I have as qualifiers via the newly revised set of guidelines:
Purdue
Wyoming
Georgia
Grzzlies

These are qualifiers in original guidelines
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
Raptors

[wiseguy007]

Games to Watch 1/24/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.


NCAAB

9:00pm 558 Georgia Bulldogs OPEN +12.5 NOW +12

8:30pm 556 Wyoming Cowboys OPEN +1 NOW -2.5


YTD: 15-12-1

[Night-Tripper]

As of 1530 CDT, this is what I have as qualifiers via the newly revised set of guidelines:
Purdue
Wyoming
Georgia
Grzzlies

These are qualifiers in original guidelines
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
Raptors

Grizzlies have now dropped off the new guidelines and are on the old guideline list.

Purdue
Wyoming
Georgia

These are qualifiers in original guidelines
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
Raptors
Grzzlies

[Night-Tripper]

Grizzlies have now dropped off the new guidelines and are on the old guideline list.

Purdue
Wyoming
Georgia

These are qualifiers in original guidelines
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
Raptors
Grzzlies

My bad... not awake yet.

New guideline qualifiers:
Purdue
Wyoming
Georgia

Original qualifiers:
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
Raptors

[Night-Tripper]

I have an appointment that'll keep me from waiting to near gametime to play Purdue, so I have made a play on it now for 385 base. May be doing live betting on Boilermakers during game should they get down by 5 -> 9 points.

[wiseguy007]

Games to Watch 1/24/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.


NCAAB

9:00pm 558 Georgia Bulldogs OPEN +12.5 NOW +12

8:30pm 556 Wyoming Cowboys OPEN +1 NOW -2.5


YTD: 15-12-1

adding

7:00pm 542 Purdue Boilermakers open -4.5 now -5

[wiseguy007]

8:30pm 556 Wyoming Cowboys OPEN +1 NOW -2.5 NO PLAY

[Madison]

Food for thought ... Look at 2 games , Hofstra/VCU and Yale/Brown both rematches. try to forget the 3000 bets and whatever. I'm not going to go into a ton of detail but simply to open a channel of thought/doubt. Yale struggles to win at Home by 4. A week later they are -4 at Brown. Line goes to -6. They win by 13. Hofstra loses to VCU by 18 at Hofstra 3 weeks ago. @ VCU -13 and they cover. Strange lines but the RLM or perceived RLM via the opening makes one think.

[crockje]

Getting killed tonight

[R19]

Tightening up rules on weekdays warranted? Or I might tighten overall. I'd rather have fewer plays and bigger positions with a better win rate.

But there is a cross hit as Lang and Quinn are winning a couple games in a row.

[therocket]

Night tripper all in on Memphis 2h?

[chinoloco212]

horrid day but we'll get it back we got a great thing going here