RLM System Plays

Automoto · 01-27-12, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by FadeThat

RLM is targeting the plays that are public underdogs (majority of bets made on other side, at 63% and higher), specifically when the line moves in a disadvantage for the underdog.

Example:

Team A opens at +5 against Team B
If, say, 80% of bets are placed on Team B, and the line moves such that Team A is now +4, that is considered a play.

I understand the concept but there were instances last night where the public underdog was the team that was favored in that particular game. Team A opened at -4 with only 20% wagered on it. The line moved to Team A -5.5. Wouldn't that also be considered an RLM?

tokio · 01-27-12, 03:56 PM

Marist.

Do you guys use the SBR odds too or just the freesportsbet site?

rglopez · 01-27-12, 05:09 PM

Fairfield +2 to +1.5 moved into a Play, Playing Canisius +10 under the old Static system as well. Only 1 game in the nba matches so far and that was Golden State +5 to +4.5 but against the Thunder, I don't know about that one.

wiseguy007 · 01-27-12, 06:21 PM

Games to Watch 1/27/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them

to our book.

NCAAB

7:00pm 849 Marist Red Foxes OPEN +9 NOW +8.5

7:00pm 852 Fairfield Stags OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

NBA

10:35pm 826 Golden State Warriors OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81%

YTD: 28-17-1 62%

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

I understand the concept but there were instances last night where the public underdog was the team that was favored in that particular game. Team A opened at -4 with only 20% wagered on it. The line moved to Team A -5.5. Wouldn't that also be considered an RLM?

Yes... favorites can also be RLM plays... but most of the time it'll be dogs.

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

Does the .5 point reverse have to occur across ALL books? Are you targeting games where the minority % is the betting favorite (The point spread goes UP from +3.5 to +4.5 on a team with only 28% total wagers on it, for example).

Not sure how everyone else is doing it, but I don't compare my odds at sportsbetting to those of freesports. I personally go with the odds on freesports for deciding my plays... because every book is going to have different numbers. Sometimes, my book has a better number for the play than what freesports is showing. Sometimes the same... sometimes worse. Once an individual book starts getting hammered on a particular side, they're going to move their number... because they don't care what the rest of the betting world thinks... they're going to try to balance their bets.

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Games to Watch 1/27/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them

to our book.

NCAAB

7:00pm 849 Marist Red Foxes OPEN +9 NOW +8.5

7:00pm 852 Fairfield Stags OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

NBA

10:35pm 826 Golden State Warriors OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81%

YTD: 28-17-1 62%

Most excellent my friend. I'm going to be adding a few static lines that qualify under the original system just because I like action.

Tomorrow though... I ain't gonna play nothing but plays that qualify under your new guidelines.

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by rglopez

Fairfield +2 to +1.5 moved into a Play, Playing Canisius +10 under the old Static system as well. Only 1 game in the nba matches so far and that was Golden State +5 to +4.5 but against the Thunder, I don't know about that one.

Added Canisius myself... but I'm definitely playing the Warriors... I'm too old to be scared.

Also gonna play Wizards and Hornets under the old system.

CheckYaPulse · 01-27-12, 06:38 PM

New Orleans Hornets is a play too

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 06:51 PM

Flat-betting 367.50 across the board:
Hornets +3.5
Wizards +9.5
Warriors +4.5
Marist +9
Fairfield +1.5
Canisius +9.5

wiseguy007 · 01-27-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Games to Watch 1/27/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them

to our book.

NCAAB

7:00pm 849 Marist Red Foxes OPEN +9 NOW +8.5

7:00pm 852 Fairfield Stags OPEN +2 NOW +1.5

NBA

10:35pm 826 Golden State Warriors OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81%

YTD: 28-17-1 62%

ADDING

7:15pm 856 Canisius Golden Griffins OPEN +10 NOW +9.5

8:05pm 812 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by tokio

Marist.

Do you guys use the SBR odds too or just the freesportsbet site?

Just freesports

wiseguy007 · 01-27-12, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Most excellent my friend. I'm going to be adding a few static lines that qualify under the original system just because I like action.

Tomorrow though... I ain't gonna play nothing but plays that qualify under your new guidelines.

Thanks, sounds good. It will be nice to see how it all goes.

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Thanks, sounds good. It will be nice to see how it all goes.

I'll be at an advantage tomorrow... I'll be at home instead of work... which will allow me to have time to make decisions and concentrate on gambling.

I really, really appreciate you taking the time to track results and post the plays... and I'm sure that everyone following this thread feels the same.

YouHave2outs · 01-27-12, 07:03 PM

warriors and hornets seem to be solid plays tonight. just found this thread. good read, thank you for posting.

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

warriors and hornets seem to be solid plays tonight. just found this thread. good read, thank you for posting.

Welcome... it is a group effort... feel free to join in.

R19 · 01-27-12, 07:08 PM

Looking forward to seeing outcome of NOLA Hornets - some late movement.

therocket · 01-27-12, 08:12 PM

Thanks guys I am back on the RLM wagon. Let's do this!!!

wiseguy007 · 01-27-12, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

I'll be at an advantage tomorrow... I'll be at home instead of work... which will allow me to have time to make decisions and concentrate on gambling.

I really, really appreciate you taking the time to track results and post the plays... and I'm sure that everyone following this thread feels the same.

No problem my friend, thanks for starting this tread and showing us all so great info.

R19 · 01-27-12, 10:07 PM

I've been watching Golden State and passing. BoL on it if you have it.

Night-Tripper · 01-27-12, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by R19

I've been watching Golden State and passing. BoL on it if you have it.

I actually like the Warriors quite a bit... don't mean diddly... because I like lots of things. But, since I didn't have the nutz to play the Hornets on the moneyline like I wanted to... I've tossed a couple of bucks on the Warriors +165.

Automoto · 01-27-12, 11:21 PM

RLMs taking a hit tonight

romoney · 01-28-12, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by Automoto

RLMs taking a hit tonight

ive seen this thread, and BOL to you guys..honestly..BOL.. but you gotta do some capping too...like yall said "we all here to make money"..just saying..if you like RLM..then cap the game too...just trying to help...

wiseguy007 · 01-28-12, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by romoney

ive seen this thread, and BOL to you guys..honestly..BOL.. but you gotta do some capping too...like yall said "we all here to make money"..just saying..if you like RLM..then cap the game too...just trying to help...

I agree, what kind of capping do you think we should do as well.

Help us all out.

wiseguy007 · 01-28-12, 10:16 AM

UPDATE FOR 1/27/12

NCAAB

7:00pm 849 Marist Red Foxes OPEN +9 NOW +8.5 L

7:00pm 852 Fairfield Stags OPEN +2 NOW +1.5 L

7:15pm 856 Canisius Golden Griffins OPEN +10 NOW +9.5 L

NBA

8:05pm 812 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 W

10:35pm 826 Golden State Warriors OPEN +4.5 NOW +4 L

RECORD FOR 1/27/12: 1-4

YTD: 29-21-1 58%

wiseguy007 · 01-28-12, 10:22 AM

Games to Watch 1/28/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.

(NEXT TO EACH GAME IS MY PROJECTED LINE FOR THE GAME)

NCAAB

12:00pm 545 St. John's Red Storm OPEN +18.5 NOW +17.5 (DUKE -16)

1:00pm 553 Texas Longhorns OPEN +8 NOW +7.5 (BAYLOR -9.5)

1:30pm 562 Florida Gators OPEN -10 NOW -9 (Florida -12.5)

4:00pm 590 Colorado State Rams OPEN +3 NOW +2 (SD ST -5)

YTD: 29-21-1 58%

R19 · 01-28-12, 11:06 AM

Not much out there despite all the games scheduled.

Automoto · 01-28-12, 11:32 AM

Maybe the books are on to us and are holding the lines so they don't qualify as RLMs

Malloy2 · 01-28-12, 11:34 AM

why is Fla a play? Miss st. opened at +10, more money coming in on Miss st, so the line moves with the money to +9

Automoto · 01-28-12, 11:54 AM

Florida shouldn't be a play

rglopez · 01-28-12, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Malloy2

why is Fla a play? Miss st. opened at +10, more money coming in on Miss st, so the line moves with the money to +9

Yeah I don't think Florida is a play they have 35% of the action but the line went from -10 to -8.5 doesn't fit the system would have to go to -10.5 or -11 to be a play

wiseguy007 · 01-28-12, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

Games to Watch 1/28/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.

(NEXT TO EACH GAME IS MY PROJECTED LINE FOR THE GAME)

NCAAB

12:00pm 545 St. John's Red Storm OPEN +18.5 NOW +17.5 (DUKE -16)

1:00pm 553 Texas Longhorns OPEN +8 NOW +7.5 (BAYLOR -9.5)

1:30pm 562 Florida Gators OPEN -10 NOW -9 (Florida -12.5) NO PLAY, MY BAD.

4:00pm 590 Colorado State Rams OPEN +3 NOW +2 (SD ST -5)

YTD: 29-21-1 58%

You all r right, I looked at it wrong. Thanks for catching that.

wiseguy007 · 01-28-12, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

Maybe the books are on to us and are holding the lines so they don't qualify as RLMs

Believe me that books are not worried about us.

wiseguy007 · 01-28-12, 12:32 PM

UPDATE:

Games to Watch 1/28/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using only opening Lines from

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.

**(NEXT TO EACH GAME IS MY PROJECTED LINE FOR THE GAME)**

NCAAB

12:00pm 545 St. John's Red Storm OPEN +18.5 NOW +17.5 (DUKE -16)

1:00pm 553 Texas Longhorns OPEN +8 NOW +7.5 (BAYLOR -9.5)

2:00pm 573 James Madison Dukes OPEN +12 NOW +11.5 (GEORGE MASON -10.5)

4:00pm 590 Colorado State Rams OPEN +3 NOW +2 (SD ST -5)

YTD: 29-21-1 58%

R19 · 01-28-12, 12:32 PM

The Florida line is moving against them (Reverse Line Movement), but they do not have the majority of the public bet on them. Still the line movement is indicating that there is a change in view about the game and Florida is less favored.