RLM System Plays

EliteCapper · 01-23-12, 08:57 PM

(765) Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Opened at +7 down to +5.5 with 35%

EliteCapper · 01-23-12, 09:00 PM

lol nevermind not enough wagers

EliteCapper · 01-23-12, 09:12 PM

I did a little backtest in the NBA. I only started from Jan 9th because I don't like to start any betting in any sport until teams adapt with everything. So I skipped first 2 weeks and here are the results for this threads Rules

RLM plays with 63% and 3,000 rules: 12-9
Static Line Movement same rules: 7-16

then I tallied up all 63% plays not qualifying for the RLM or Static. So all this is would be fading 63% public plays using freesportsbet.com fading went 19-25

So there's nothing dominant or that stands out. I'll get to NCAA when I have time see how that did

robinhood · 01-23-12, 09:18 PM

It seems like you need to add a few more qualifiers to make this somewhat successful. For example, I would drop lines that are higher than 10 for basketball. There are probably some conferences I would drop as well, but I'm playing around with it right now.

This is what you need to understand. THIS METHOD WILL NOT WIN IF YOU PLAY THE QUALIFIERS PRESENTED BY NIGHT-TRIPPER. This isn't taking anything away from Night-tripper as he presented a solid base. You need to add a few more variables to give yourself a working system. You'll have to play around with it to find out exactly what those are.

chinoloco212 · 01-23-12, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by robinhood

It seems like you need to add a few more qualifiers to make this somewhat successful. For example, I would drop lines that are higher than 10 for basketball. There are probably some conferences I would drop as well, but I'm playing around with it right now.

This is what you need to understand. THIS METHOD WILL NOT WIN IF YOU PLAY THE QUALIFIERS PRESENTED BY NIGHT-TRIPPER. This isn't taking anything away from Night-tripper as he presented a solid base. You need to add a few more variables to give yourself a working system. You'll have to play around with it to find out exactly what those are.

i agree 100%

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by robinhood

This is what you need to understand. THIS METHOD WILL NOT WIN IF YOU PLAY THE QUALIFIERS PRESENTED BY NIGHT-TRIPPER.

No offense taken.

But... I have to ask... would you suggest that I give back the 6,750 dollars that I've made in the last week and a half playing my original set of qualifiers?

southpaw74 · 01-23-12, 09:32 PM

You made 6,700 in a week and a half playing $385 a game? That's a hell of a win percentage I think...

colstok · 01-23-12, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

No offense taken.

But... I have to ask... would you suggest that I give back the 6,750 dollars that I've made in the last week and a half playing my original set of qualifiers?

If that's true then could you start calling it out and putting a unit next to it? The first Saturday this started the a.m. games hit like 6-2. Then it bottomed out and ended up being a losing day. I would love to know what you're doing and write it on here so we can all get in on it.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

You made 6,700 in a week and a half playing $385 a game? That's a hell of a win percentage I think...

No... I made 6,750 with base bets of 385/largest bet of 825, with moneyline bets on dogs that I felt could win. I'm pretty sure that I stated that in a post I made this afternoon. For example... almost all of my bets tonight were for 385 except for Rockets and Suns. I have Rockets for 495 and Suns for 825 with 200 on Suns moneyline.

robinhood · 01-23-12, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

No offense taken.

But... I have to ask... would you suggest that I give back the 6,750 dollars that I've made in the last week and a half playing my original set of qualifiers?

Week and a half. If you come back to this thread in two months with the same report then you deserve the praise. Any system can be a success with a small sample size. Present a larger sample size with the same variables and I will be impressed.

Please understand that I'm not trying to talk down or berate you Night-tripper. I think you've got a good system to START with. I'll be following it with interest and tweaking a few things along the way. BOL to us all.

crockje · 01-23-12, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

No... I made 6,750 with base bets of 385/largest bet of 825, with moneyline bets on dogs that I felt could win. I'm pretty sure that I stated that in a post I made this afternoon. For example... almost all of my bets tonight were for 385 except for Rockets and Suns. I have Rockets for 495 and Suns for 825 with 200 on Suns moneyline.

Can u continue to post picks and when u are going on ml

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by colstok

If that's true then could you start calling it out and putting a unit next to it? The first Saturday this started the a.m. games hit like 6-2. Then it bottomed out and ended up being a losing day. I would love to know what you're doing and write it on here so we can all get in on it.

Once again... I base bet 385 and don't believe in going 5x my largets wager (which is never more than 825). If I really like a dog to win outright... I will also play them on the moneyline. (Saturday, wasn't really a losing day as much as it was a break even/lose juice day.)

I don't mind putting down what I play on each game, but I'm not going to tell people that's the way they should play. That's foolish. Everyone has different sized bankrolls. I play 1 to 1.5% of my bank roll as a base bet. I bever play more than 2.5/3% of my bankroll on any game. If I intend to do live betting, I play no more than 1.5% on the spread and leave 1.5% available for live betting. If my team doesn't present a good opportunity as a + moneyline dog during the game, I just go with my base bet.

Friday night I started with Timberwolves +4.5 @ -105 for 577.50 for the game. I placed two live bets during game... one was Timberwolves +5.5 @ -120 for 360.00 The other was Timberwolves +190 for 200.00.

Satisfied?

PS: Tonight I have Suns +5 for 825 and 200 on the Suns +175.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by robinhood

Week and a half. If you come back to this thread in two months with the same report then you deserve the praise. Any system can be a success with a small sample size. Present a larger sample size with the same variables and I will be impressed.

Please understand that I'm not trying to talk down or berate you Night-tripper. I think you've got a good system to START with. I'll be following it with interest and tweaking a few things along the way. BOL to us all.

Not a problem. As I said... this is just a starting point. If anyone wants to further tighten the requirements, I think that's cool... but I wouldn't try to suggest that everyone do it. What people should do is customize it to their own taste. But, for a beginner... I think they should start with the basics until they're comfortable and go from there.

I believe this thread has helped more people to get a grasp of the system more than anything dozer ever did... and... they're not having to depend on anyone to give them a play.

texhooper · 01-23-12, 09:55 PM

night-tripper, the site you provide in your op, where do those percentages come from? i only looked through the first three pages and didn't see this question asked, and i only briefly searched around the site for this information, so if it has already been answered, my apologies.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by crockje

Can u continue to post picks and when u are going on ml

Sure... I don't mind posting exactly what I'm playing as well as the amount. I'll tell you what I look for as far as my live betting goes. Whether I'm playing a favorite, or a dog... I want my play to be competitive. If they are, then I hope they get behind by at least 5 -> 9 points so I can get a nice +money live play. If they don't, I let my base bet ride... but if they do, I'm willing to gamble some of my potential winnings on a high percentage payoff.

For example... I really liked the Rockets tonight, but the pre-game moneyline didn't have decent odds for my taste. So, I was hoping that the T-Wolves would jump out at some point to a 5 -> 9 point lead. Never happened... but still hoping... unless it gets too late in the game... then I just want the Rockets to cover.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

night-tripper, the site you provide in your op, where do those percentages come from? i only looked through the first three pages and didn't see this question asked, and i only briefly searched around the site for this information, so if it has already been answered, my apologies.

Dude... I don't have a clue where they're getting them from. One reason I decide to use them is because they didn't appear to be tied to any of the books that are getting pimped. Most of the time their lines jibe with sportsbetting, but there are lines that are way off compared to mine. I just use them as resource and then play the game at whatever line sportsbetting has. The Hornet line I actually had on sportsbetting was better than anything SBR was showing. I'm sure they may start similar, but no book is going to leave their line as is or go with the pack if they're getting hammered by the opposite side.

texhooper · 01-23-12, 10:10 PM

right, i normally use vegas insider's lines for sportsbook to get a rough "public" precentage, and a lot of these percentages are pretty close but some were a bit off. that's sort of the price we pay for not shelling out money to get supposed true percentages at different books. it's an extra resource regardless so i appreciate the info.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

right, i normally use vegas insider's lines for sportsbook to get a rough "public" precentage, and a lot of these percentages are pretty close but some were a bit off. that's sort of the price we pay for not shelling out money to get supposed true percentages at different books. it's an extra resource regardless so i appreciate the info.

Not a problem. I like to look at vegas insider myself. freesports might not be the best/deadly accurate site for percentages, but it's free... and I'm not going to pay for that type of information, because it's close enough for government work.

Good luck to ya...

EliteCapper · 01-23-12, 10:17 PM

I think FreeSports might just be using their own players for their numbers.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by crockje

Can u continue to post picks and when u are going on ml

This is not a system play and if not for the fact that I'm going to be up for a while and wanna try to make some money while fading what appears to be the popular play around here, I wouldn't even be doing it. However, I like the Grizzlies +2.5 as well as the fact that they've been juiced to -120. So, I'm playing them for 600 and the first time the game goes to break and they're at least a +150 dog, I'm going to throw 200 on the money line.

Just think there's something odd about this game.

Oh yeah... Vegas Insider also had the opening line @ Memphis -1

figue · 01-23-12, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Not a problem. I like to look at vegas insider myself. freesports might not be the best/deadly accurate site for percentages, but it's free... and I'm not going to pay for that type of information, because it's close enough for government work.

Good luck to ya...

do you like this ??....http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/de...aspx?sport=nba

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by figue

do you like this ??....http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/de...aspx?sport=nba

Yeah... looks good to me... thanks.

Time to get everyone who's participatings thought.

wiseguy007 · 01-23-12, 11:06 PM

RECAP OF TODAY

NBA

8:05pm 711 Houston Rockets OPEN +3 NOW +2 W

8:05pm 714 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +4.5 NOW +4 W

8:35pm 715 Phoenix Suns OPEN +6.5 NOW +5 L

NCAAB

7:00pm 741 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +8.5 NOW +8 L

7:00pm 747 Hofstra Pride OPEN +14 NOW +13.5 W

TOTAL FOR THE DAY: 3-2

YTD: 15-12-1

wiseguy007 · 01-23-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

This is not a system play and if not for the fact that I'm going to be up for a while and wanna try to make some money while fading what appears to be the popular play around here, I wouldn't even be doing it. However, I like the Grizzlies +2.5 as well as the fact that they've been juiced to -120. So, I'm playing them for 600 and the first time the game goes to break and they're at least a +150 dog, I'm going to throw 200 on the money line.

Just think there's something odd about this game.

Oh yeah... Vegas Insider also had the opening line @ Memphis -1

I would have thought you would like GS with the huge RLM with them going from a dog to a fav.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

This is not a system play and if not for the fact that I'm going to be up for a while and wanna try to make some money while fading what appears to be the popular play around here, I wouldn't even be doing it. However, I like the Grizzlies +2.5 as well as the fact that they've been juiced to -120. So, I'm playing them for 600 and the first time the game goes to break and they're at least a +150 dog, I'm going to throw 200 on the money line.

Just think there's something odd about this game.

Oh yeah... Vegas Insider also had the opening line @ Memphis -1

Just tossed 250 on Grizzlies +300

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

I would have thought you would like GS with the huge RLM with them going from a dog to a fav.

I did until they started juicing the +2.5 and it ended up @ -125. In fact, I liked the Warriors all day long... up until I placed my bet. They live and die by the three and if they continue to hit them, I'll be toast.

southpaw74 · 01-23-12, 11:20 PM

I took golden state for 150 and my normal bet is 50-100. I think grizz are less fresh and looking ahead to Portland.

southpaw74 · 01-23-12, 11:21 PM

+300 on grizz is very tasty though! That could be good value

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

+300 on grizz is very tasty though! That could be good value

The smart play was what you did. I just wanted to be in a position to go for the throat. Some of my off the wall live bets have been what provided me with a very nice profit this year. But, I don't recommend my strategy for everyone... and I only do it when I'm up. Worse case tonight... I hope to get a nice halftime line that would be able to cover most of my idiocy.

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 11:40 PM

Okay... tossed 605 on Grizzlies -2/2nd half

Night-Tripper · 01-23-12, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

I took golden state for 150 and my normal bet is 50-100. I think grizz are less fresh and looking ahead to Portland.

Before football started I tossed 5,000 into my account and began with 100 -> 150 dollar bets and worked up from there. I don't wager near what I do on football for basketball. Until this year, I pulled my money out of my account at the end of football season and tossed 5,000 in each year before the season started. This year, I decided to play a little hoops instead of pulling it all out. You sound like you do a good job of money management... that is the key to surviving the bad days/weeks. I'll play teasers and decent sized parlays during football because I'm confident in my handicapping (and like big payoffs without risking a lot of money)... but I'm sticking to straight bets in hoops.

therocket · 01-24-12, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Just tossed 250 on Grizzlies +300

Great call. Gotta love an epic meltdown like that one.

figue · 01-24-12, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Just tossed 250 on Grizzlies +300

southpaw74 · 01-24-12, 12:52 AM

What a meltdown...wow that was worse than bad high school ball by the warriors. You need to try to mess up that bad. Amazing payoff for you night! Great job

Night-Tripper · 01-24-12, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by southpaw74

What a meltdown...wow that was worse than bad high school ball by the warriors. You need to try to mess up that bad. Amazing payoff for you knight! Great job

Dude... I'm not kidding... I really feel bad for you. You made the right play and I had no business winning this game. Hell, I shouldn't even have covered the second half line. I just kept studying the percentages after Golden State became the favorite... and when the Grizzlies +2.5 started getting juiced up to -125, I decided that there was some serious money coming in on Memphis (and it was confirmed in my mind by the fact that the betting numbers were going up on the Warriors, but the line wasn't changing... they were just making you pay to have the Grizzlies... kind of a reverse-reverse RLM. That's when I decided not to play the Warriors. From then on, as I stated earlier... I wanted them to get down by 5 -> 9 so that I could get a nice moneyline price. As soon as I got it in, they went belly up and I avoided the +600 that was offered, because I figured they were going to get trashed.

Don't worry... keep doing what you're doing... the ball will bounce in your/our direction.

I'm going to keep playing the system plays per the new guidelines... but if I make a play based on the original premise in my first post... I'll post them in this thread and state that I am going outside the new box, but still staying within the original set.