Originally posted by moshi
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Looking at it. What does everyone think about a favorite that has the public on the other side like this?Comment -
r19 what was your record with adjusting out high spreads without at least a point movement?Originally posted by R19Comment -
should still be a play.....although something is really fishy about that line might be one of those that we use our heads and stay away fromOriginally posted by R19Comment -
You guys are broadcasting a profitable capping strategy over the internet,don't be fukking stupid,keep it on a down low...
This is not rocket science............Comment -
UPDATE
Games to Watch 1/26/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using only opening Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them
to our book.
NCAAB
7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5
7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5
8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN +1.5 NOW +1
8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17
10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6
11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15
YTD: 22-16-1 58%Comment -
(Never mind. I picked up the wrong comment to respond to.)Originally posted by crockjeComment -
Im open to that, my a max of 8-9pts for NCAAB.Originally posted by R19
What did you come up with from the adjustment?Comment -
The guy who brought up % of line movement earlier was absolutely correct. Too lazy to go back and see who that was but I meant to give him props.Comment -
LOL. I love the guy on ESPNU who said "I don't think anybody expected 30 points from either team at the half". What a square
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I played it. RLM is RLM.Originally posted by R19
Wife turned it in while I was driving to work.Comment -
I looked back thru the records since 1/22 when we made the change to 15pts max including nba we are 4-3 when line is over 8.5 pts and 2-2 just ncabb. So maybe we need to get a much bigger sample before we make that change?Originally posted by wiseguy007Comment -
Starting today.Originally posted by crockjeComment -
Don't think we are breaking any secrets here although we each could be more discreet about our adjustments going forward.Originally posted by PAULYPOKERComment -
I started filtering from 10, 9, then 8 and looking at the track record since Saturday. Yes it's limited data, yes data mining, but no capping on top of RLM. And I saw the winning percentage improve.Originally posted by wiseguy007Comment -
heres a suggestiion since some players are stronger than others i feel, so say for example a play has over 5000 bets with over 70% or so we should make that 2 units, doesnt have to be those exact figures but yea ya get the drift cause i feel the the Highest bet gaems with the reverse line movement hit at a greater rate just a suggstion, what do you guys think?Comment -
ADDINGOriginally posted by wiseguy007
10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5Comment -
Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
Wrong! As long as you breathe you should strive to help as many as you can. Your attitude is why this world is so f'd up right now.
I think Nebraska being the signature win tonight gives this system some hope. Of course, now that we're basically posting our ideas to the bookies, what is to stop them from RLM'ing bets on air just to throw us off?
Always be flexible in your strategy while recognizing what can work.
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Added:Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Wisconsin
Eastern WashingtonComment -
Mad lateOriginally posted by Night-TripperComment -
because the majority of money is still on the other sideOriginally posted by robinhoodWrong! As long as you breathe you should strive to help as many as you can. Your attitude is why this world is so f'd up right now.
I think Nebraska being the signature win tonight gives this system some hope. Of course, now that we're basically posting our ideas to the bookies, what is to stop them from RLM'ing bets on air just to throw us off?
Always be flexible in your strategy while recognizing what can work.
Comment -
Y'all are more than welcome to tweak, limit and adjust as much as you like... this is y'alls thread. However, I am going to continue to truck along with what I'm doing.Originally posted by R19
In my opinion, there is a limit to what tweaking will accomplish. Limiting lines can only do so much... before you start severely limiting your profits. I don't care if a line is 5 or 20. While there aren't as many 20 point dogs that are outright winners, there are also 5 point dogs that get blown out by as many points as the huge dogs. For example... an 8 point limit would have cost you an outright win on the Raptors last night.
This is a system and it is never going to be foolproof. But, give it a try and post your results/findings... just don't be critical of those who have different prerequisites. No matter how tight the paramaters are... we're all still going to have losers.
I like what y'all are doing with this thread!Comment -
No... made before tipoff... posted late. I am working Nights this week and I do not get my laptop hooked up until after I've taken care of my job-related paperwork is done, which is usually between 1930 and 2000 CDT.Originally posted by DonWonComment -
If dozer hadn't decided to start charging for plays, or offering to give a webinar for 25,000 to teach people the method, this thread wouldn't exist. I'm not interested in being the only one winning... I'd like to see as many people collecting as possible. Besides, their winnings isn't taking any cash out of my pocket.Originally posted by PAULYPOKERComment -
Originally posted by Night-TripperAdded Grizzlies +4/715Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Grizzlies +150/200Comment -
I think that this can be re-visited over and over as the sample set grows and would like to do/see the impact of filtering on percent line movement.Originally posted by wiseguy007
Basically, I just wrote out all the plays that I took and started making a note of the daily track record as each adjustment was made.
I have been getting crushed on Lang and Quinn fades of late so I am fine if my restrictions on plays are a bit data mined. Once a get back on track, I can consider more aggressive adjustments.
*** I think a huge factor is whether one is capping over RLM or not. I think the RLM qualifiers should be tighter if there is no capping overlay,Comment -
UPDATE
NCAAB
7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5 W
7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5 W
8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN -1.5 NOW -1 W
8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17 W
10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6 W
10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5 L
11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15 W
RECORD FOR 1/26/12: 6-1
2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81%
YTD: 28-17-1 62%Comment -
Damn fine job!Originally posted by wiseguy007Comment -
Thanks my friend.Originally posted by Night-Tripper
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This is lights out hope we can continue it around 60%Originally posted by wiseguy007Comment -
Nice work!!!Comment -
Well done guys!Comment -
Originally posted by wiseguy007Thanks my friend.
... keep up the good work
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Thanks for all the input !!! Keep up the good work, very informative.Comment -
Does the .5 point reverse have to occur across ALL books? Are you targeting games where the minority % is the betting favorite (The point spread goes UP from +3.5 to +4.5 on a team with only 28% total wagers on it, for example).Originally posted by wiseguy007Comment -
Originally posted by Automoto
RLM is targeting the plays that are public underdogs (majority of bets made on other side, at 63% and higher), specifically when the line moves in a disadvantage for the underdog.
Example:
Team A opens at +5 against Team B
If, say, 80% of bets are placed on Team B, and the line moves such that Team A is now +4, that is considered a play.Comment
