Northeastern drops a full point from +8.5 to +7.5 with majority on odu.
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Comment -
yeaa i see all the RLM for all these games but im selective my favorite two would be wilmington and GSW BOLComment -
Games to Watch 1/23/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using only opening Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.
NBA
8:05pm 711 Houston Rockets OPEN +3 NOW +2.5
8:35pm 715 Phoenix Suns OPEN +6.5 NOW +5.5
NO PLAYS FOR NCAAB AS OF 4:30PM EASTERN TIME
RECORD YTD: 12-10-1Comment -
opening lines at that site are wrong. Dirk is out for mavs so that line is off because of that. I see Twolves opening at -2.5 and it had moved to -3 at scoresandodds and sbrComment -
I think we should use http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html because this is where we are getting the %'s from and 5dimes as the book.Comment -
Would like to get Night-trippers input on this as well.Comment -
I use sportsbettingdotcom as my book, but I still use freesportsbetdotcom for the statistics to base my bets on. While all of the other books have opening lines, they're going to vary and I don't think everyone is going to switch to that one book. Anyway, none of us are experts... that's why I started this thread after the self-proclaimed *god of picks* decided stop posting plays unless he was paid.
I'm not adverse to anyone offering suggestions to enhance our winning percentage... but I do have a low tolerance for users who just jump in and say *this ain't gonna work*. Either offer some suggestions/constructive criticism or stfu.
Some of the sugestions of making plays *official* in this thread have merit. This doesn't mean that I won't stray from wagering on a team that may be a 15+ point dog... or has a static line, but that would be my individual wagering preference and won't be posted as an official play.
Y'all are doing a wonderful job of taking the ball and running with it... which was my intent. Nobody here needs to wait for me to grant permission for changes. While I started this thread, it was created for y'all... to realize that you didn't need dozer to give you plays... you could do this yourself... all you needed was confidence in yourself.
Is what we're doing going to guarantee 100% winners?
No.
Will it allow most of us to hit a higher percentage of bets than we would have otherwise?
I think the answer is, yes. I know I have made quite a bit of money in the week-and-a-half that I quit waiting for dozer and started making my own plays.
As for betting amounts... that's up to the individual. I am not going to do the dozer methos of tossing 200 on one play and 4,000 on another. I basically flat-bet @ 385/game, which varies from 1% -> 1.5% of my current account balance. If I feel real good about a game, I may go to 2%... or in the case of the Pacers last night, I played the spread as well as the money-line.
I like the idea of using 3,000+ wagers, at least .5 RLM and less than a 15-point spread for official plays as far as record-keeping for this thread is concerned. I may post some games that don't meet the .5 RLM/15-point spread criteria just to let y'all know that I'm playing them... but they won't be official.
Isn't this more enjoyable than waiting for someone to dote out plays as he sees fit?
And... it's free!Comment -
Good job and thanks!
At this moment... this is what I'm showing to meet the newly-revised criteria:
Rockets
Suns
Northeastern
Hofstra
NC Wilmington
These are plays that I may make, that are static/no RLM
Bucks
Hornets
Nets
Going to take the wife out to eat and will be back in a while... definitely before any games tip-off. Kinda disappointed that Warriors fell off the list. Who knows, maybe they'll be back before tipoff. Definitely a big swing in betting percentages in the past two hours.Last edited by Night-Tripper; 01-23-12, 05:43 PM.Comment -
Great points knight. I have a question about opening lines. It seems like the ones on that sports bet site you use can be quite different than I see on places like scoresandodds or sbr. What is the best or most accurate place to use? I saw your site had Memphis open at -1 and others had it at +1. That's a huge difference in making a decision on what to play under this "system". I would never play 100% of what fits the criteria but it seems like this can help me to be a better gambler. Thanks for the help.Comment -
I understand... that's why I use only the site I posted for my statistics. Lines and percentages are going to vary from site to site... so it's best to stick to just one. I originally chose freesports because for me, it was the simplest and most user-friendly. Although I pretty much do it, I wouldn't suggest that anyone play 100% of what meets the criteria... butr I would say that it's best to make your selections off that list. For me, this is the easiest way to play hoops. I don't like hoops, never have... but I don't believe in wagering without handicapping. Since I hate hoops, and a lot of people make their living via nothing but RLM, this is the simplest and fastest way for me to not be betting in the dark.
I spend a ton of time handicapping football, but I do intend to integrate this into my football wagering this year.Comment -
good luck on the system tonight guys!Comment -
UPDATE
Games to Watch 1/23/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using only opening Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.
NBA
8:05pm 711 Houston Rockets OPEN +3 NOW +2.5
8:35pm 715 Phoenix Suns OPEN +6.5 NOW +5.5
NCAAB
7:00pm 741 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +8.5 NOW +8
7:00pm 747 Hofstra Pride OPEN +14 NOW +13.5Comment -
No play on nc wil?Comment -
Hofstra meets all %... right?Comment -
Wizards just met the system requirements.Comment -
You didn't miss out on anything. Grabbed it and they are shittin the bed harddddComment -
T'Wolves at 62% going back and forth was 63% a min ago... opened at -3 now at -2
Hornets movement looks in the right direction to me, no?Comment -
Yes to Hornets.
As far as T-Wolves/Rockets... I made my play about 20 minutes ago when it was 63% -> 37%. I would say that it would be an individuals decision as to whether or not to play. For me, the answer was yes. Also... there is a little fat built into the system... if it's bouncing between 62 and 63... it wouldn't be an official play... but it could be a play.
This is also why I use freesports as my source... I got Hornets +5 at my book, while it is +4/+4.5 on the SBR lines.Comment -
ut Never mind thats correct
Hornets a playComment -
wilmington isnt a play anymore for me,soo LETS GO WARRIORSComment -
UPDATE
Games to Watch 1/23/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using only opening Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to our book.
NBA
8:05pm 711 Houston Rockets OPEN +3 NOW +2
8:05pm 714 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +4.5 NOW +4
8:35pm 715 Phoenix Suns OPEN +6.5 NOW +5
NCAAB
7:00pm 741 Northeastern Huskies OPEN +8.5 NOW +8
7:00pm 747 Hofstra Pride OPEN +14 NOW +13.5
9:00pm 753 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +12 NOW +12 NO PLAYComment -
suns line movement due to dirk sitting..Comment
