EP36's March to Madness

[EaglesPhan36]

CIT [2nd Half] Robert Morris-Toledo Under 69.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Craptacular. I knew one of these two CIT games would be fukked. Both pointed under, but I didn't have the nuts to go against Oakland who usually has shit tons of points. Damn it.

[EaglesPhan36]

11 pts. in the last minute of an absolute blowout and it goes over.

[PR9]

Alright, well trying three more straight ML dogs tonight. Haven't hit one yet, but I got a feeling a couple of these hit. If not, then ya know 0-fer City baby.

[Midwest] Ohio +210
[Midwest] South Florida +145
[South] Xavier +115

[EaglesPhan36]

Eesh. Gonna stick to one Beaver play per day I think. Dayton was up 14 in the 1st, gave up a big run late in the half to wind up even at half time. Second half they are getting killed on the boards and after fighting back up to 53-52, now down 10 and probably finished.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Vanderbilt-Wisconsin Over 67 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Johnson-Odom has had a poor game by his standards. O-fer from beyond the arc really screwed that prop up. He's stuck on 14 w/little chance outside of a FT parade to get more pts. 6/14 and 1/6 from three isn't gonna do it most nights. Especially with just two FTAs.

[EaglesPhan36]

**** me. He missed a FT that would have given him 18.

[EaglesPhan36]

And apparently we've found that 5 minute stretch to f-ck this Vandy-Wisconsin 2nd half. They have two points I think in the last three minutes. Appears not to be my day today. St.Patrick's Day ... shit luck for me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well maybe I can get something right today, but probably not.

West Regional Play #9: New Mexico-Louisville Total Three Point Shots Made Under 12.5 [-120]
Two outstanding perimeter defenses here. Louisville is challenged from the arc outside of Kuric for the most part and have only made more than five threes [six once] in a game since the postseason began. They are 22/71 from distance in their last five. Of course, they are only allowing 17% from beyond the arc in that same stretch. New Mexico has some outstanding shooters and they make 38% on the season, but have rarely faced a team with the talent defensively of Louisville. The closest thing I can find is their meeting with St.Louis who although not as athletic as Louisville, plays solid half court defense. They allowed the Lobos just two threes on seven attempts.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bound & determined to get one damn it.

NCAA [2nd Half] Colorado-Baylor Over 72 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

That pretty much sums it up. 71 points. Needed 6 points in the last 2:48 to push. Two missed FTs in the last minute by a kid who shot 77% on the season. Just absolutely jinxed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Quite certain the 3 pt. prop is going to lose too. Louisville shooting better than they have all f-ing season, 6/9 from three. They held New Mexico down, but probably see either Louisville hit 11 threes to push it over or New Mexico hit just enough. F-ing depressing day of basketball betting.

[EaglesPhan36]

Waiting for it. Overtime would be hilarious. But I think they're going to get the last two before that.

[EaglesPhan36]

There's 12. I'm thinking meaningless heave by New Mexico in the final play for #13 and the superb ending to the night.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey holy shit, I won one by the skin of my teeth. So let's recap:

Johnson-Odom: Missed FT in the last minute, finished one point shy of winning prop
Robert Morris Under: 11 pts in the last minute in a blowout
Baylor Over: Finished at 71. Two missed FTs in the last minute. Five pts in the last 3:00.

[EaglesPhan36]

3.18.12

Trying a couple moneylines for games I had pegged before the tournament. Maybe things will turn around a little bit from today's crapfest.
N.C. State +170
Ohio +125

[Owls]

I don't know how you can do this day in and day out. It would drive me nuts to lose so many games like this, and I know it evens out with unexpected wins, but the lows are much lower than the highs are high.

[EaglesPhan36]

Could not agree more.


Losses are actually easier to take when picks get destroyed, a day of near misses is really a pain in the ass.

[PistolPete13]

where do you get your stats and info for your halftime plays?

thanks

[EaglesPhan36]

Postseason Record
Overall: 17-19 [-3.05]
2nd Halves: 9-11 [-3.00]

West Regional Play #10: [1st Half] Michigan State-St.Louis Over 57 [-110]
I'm not under the mistaken impression that this is going to be anything but a grinder, but I think Michigan State is much more equipped for success against St.Louis' style than Memphis was in the 1st round. Memphis always looked like it was trying to do things it was not comfortable with doing whereas State plays the majority of its conference slate against teams who work a similar style of hard nosed defense and half court sets i.e. Wisconsin without quite as many three point attempts. From a match-up standpoint, you can look up and down the starting lineup and see a lot of guys with similar sizes albeit with some differing skill sets. State has a bit more bulk in their backcourt by a small margin, so you may see their guards looking to get to the rack early. Draymond Green and Brian Conklin is going to be a great match-up of guys with solid offensive games. Conklin has to have a big game to balance Green's expected productivity. I also think St.Louis will find a bit more success early vs. a team with less length at each position than Memphis had. Points will be at a premium here and I think a key would be St.Louis getting at least 25.

[EaglesPhan36]

where do you get your stats and info for your halftime plays?

thanks

As long as their box scores are working, ESPN is the 1st place I go. Yahoo doesn't have offensive rebound stats. Sportsline is the backup source but their Game Tracker software seems hit and miss sometimes with actually being up to date when you need the score.

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe I should just bet dog moneylines


NC State!

[EaglesPhan36]

How many open shots and two footers can we miss .... a shit ton. This 1st half bet has no chance.

[EaglesPhan36]

NIT [2nd Half] Bucknell-Nevada Over 72 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

I f-ing give up on these 2nd halves. Another one that goes one point shy.

[EaglesPhan36]

West Regional Play #12: Norfolk State-Florida Total Threes Made Over 15.5 [-120]
The Gators have to be licking their chops for this game. Missouri got a ton of open looks [13/29] from beyond the arc and while Florida may not be as smooth offensively as Mizzou, they will welcome the chance to get some open looks from 3 after facing a stiff UVA defense that did not let them get many clean looks. Norfolk State has good #s defending the three, but let's face it - their quality competition has been few and far between. Florida leads the country in threes made per game at around ten. Norfolk can't be expected to reproduce their 10/19 game from beyond the arc vs. Mizzou, but Florida is not a great perimeter defense and Norfolk has saved some of their best three point shooting nights for the three best teams they played. They shot 28/65 in the three games vs. Marquette[2] and Missouri. Williams, McEachin and Tamares are the key guys for Norfolk. I think Florida should get close to or exceed their average so if Norfolk can snag about a half dozen - this has a shot. Tempo also will be large here. If the Gators are making shots, they will press and that should speed up the game and allow Norfolk to go into "shootout" mode like they did with Missouri and that could mean a lot of three point opportunities.

[EaglesPhan36]

Make that -110, price dropped when I booked it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Why not keep getting pounded.

[2nd Half] Lehigh-Xavier Under 73.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Pound me again. Do it.

[2nd Half] Purdue-Kansas Under 76 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Stupid is as stupid does. #s point this direction, but will either team get shooting lessons at the half?

[2nd Half] Cincinnati-Florida State Over 69 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

3.18.12

Trying a couple moneylines for games I had pegged before the tournament. Maybe things will turn around a little bit from today's crapfest.
N.C. State +170
Ohio +125

Seriously the ML plays have been my best this weekend. Five straight now. Too bad the others suck ass. 2nd halves rallied a bit with a couple winners, but FSU-Cincy is going to stick it to a 2-2 day barring some OT. Glad I stuck to my guns on the MLs as far as the ones I had picked in my brackets for upsets. Felt good about them even though large portions of the rest of my brackets fell apart with Mizzou losing.

Marquette future is still alive. Will have to look at what I might do to add another in the West Region depending on what prices get reposted.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn near got a push on that Cincy 2nd half. If Cincy doesn't turn the ball over, probably would have gotten it with the fouls that were going down. 16 pts in the last minute and it finished at 67.

[MoreWaysThanOne]

Nice calls on two dogs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Postseason Record
Overall: 21-22 [-1.40]
2nd Halves: 11-13 [-3.20]

Made a little dent in things yesterday as far as getting back towards the break even mark. Considering the 2nd halves have been "off" at this point, being down just a little bit seems like a win so far. Will be looking @ 2nd halves in the NIT, etc. tonight. I have to read some more, but I think there might be a couple decent women's plays on the money line tonight too ... but we'll see.