Mostly totals

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00

West Virginia/Oklahoma St u138

I haven’t posted thoughts or writeups on games this season, but I want to make a comment here. By all of my numbers, this under is a play for me. That said, when I look back at historical matchups, the last 6 meetings have gone over 160. Same coaching matchup in at least 4 of those games I believe. I’m not a huge trends guy, but I typically don’t go against them. This game will likely have a lot of possessions. If shots are falling, this one could be a huge failure. Also, the last two major conference unders I have played where I expected the defenses to slow down the scoring (FSU/LVille and Michael/Mich St) were disasters.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/6

7:30

South Carolina St/Morgan St o145

8:30

Alcorn St/Texas Southern o146

9:00

West Virginia/Oklahoma St u138

2-1 +.9u
66-49 +12.83u

[jimm246]

Man heel that was a very good night 2 games was a Cruiser. Didn't have to break a sweat. P

[BOA12]

2-1 +.9u
66-49 +12.83u

Schooled at Beat The Man U. Party School.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Man heel that was a very good night 2 games was a Cruiser. Didn't have to break a sweat. P

Schooled at Beat The Man U. Party School.

Thanks fellas. Always a good idea to appreciate the good days. Never know what’s coming next.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/7

7:00

Miami/Louisville u144.5
Temple +130

[Hman]

GL tonight

[BOA12]

1/7

7:00

Miami/Louisville u144.5
Temple +130

Like Louisville Under, on your own with Temple. Bol on both HGUY.

[loveofsports]

Sorry for asking stupid question but rather be 100% sure than 100% wrong.

In your model the following games would be played today, and your model is 58% ish strike rate on the totals.

Providence vs Marquette U145
Miami (FL) VS Louisville u 145
ohio state vs maryland u 134.5
Penn State VS Rutgers u 140.5
Iowa VS Nebraska U 156.5
Villanova VS Creighton U148

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry for asking stupid question but rather be 100% sure than 100% wrong.

In your model the following games would be played today, and your model is 58% ish strike rate on the totals.

Providence vs Marquette U145
Miami (FL) VS Louisville u 145
ohio state vs maryland u 134.5
Penn State VS Rutgers u 140.5
Iowa VS Nebraska U 156.5
Villanova VS Creighton U148

I’d much rather you ask than there be a misunderstanding.

To answer your question, you are reading the model correctly. The only qualification I would add is that the 58% number is based on the closing lines. If a game is a play now, but the line moves to make it not a play, it is not included in that 10+ differential that I posted last week.

Hope that helps.

[loveofsports]

Thank you so much.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/7

7:00

Miami/Louisville u144.5
Temple +130

1-1 --
67-50 +12.83u
Temple didn't work out, but at least it didn't cost anything.

[ukcats1978!]

Sorry for asking stupid question but rather be 100% sure than 100% wrong.

In your model the following games would be played today, and your model is 58% ish strike rate on the totals.

Providence vs Marquette U145
Miami (FL) VS Louisville u 145
ohio state vs maryland u 134.5
Penn State VS Rutgers u 140.5
Iowa VS Nebraska U 156.5
Villanova VS Creighton U148

Where were those posted? That’s a hell of a hit!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Where were those posted? That’s a hell of a hit!

They were from the model I put together that is linked in the first post of this thread. Here’s the post where I explained the results I have seen: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...totals-p7.html

Short on time right now, but I’ll do my best to answer any questions that post and the subsequent posts can’t. Thanks for stopping by.

[WhiteBison]

I've noticed a nice win % on the teams with a 10 point variance also. Nebraska and Rutgers both also last night.

[loveofsports]

Holy smokes lots of plays falling into the 10+ differential today for under/overs... Mairist Fairfield is a 23 point differential, would you make this a 2X wager since the differential is so far apart or would you be a little concerend with how far this line is?

[jimm246]

Holy smokes lots of plays falling into the 10+ differential today for under/overs... Mairist Fairfield is a 23 point differential, would you make this a 2X wager since the differential is so far apart or would you be a little concerend with how far this line is?

I wouldn't do that if I were you the recheck the game again that game is a complete loser not everything's on the plus side and use your own discretion. 1x is good enough or you will maybe fall into chasing

[doubledime]

Couple of observations:

As you know, I like first half unders. Using your model, if one would have played the game unders, along with the first half under for those games, one would be, I believe, 13-1. I know it's only two days, but 13-1 may warrant a closer look.

Also, interestingly, your model has very few "extra game" unders of 10+ differential. Thoughts?

Keep up the great work.

DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

Holy smokes lots of plays falling into the 10+ differential today for under/overs... Mairist Fairfield is a 23 point differential, would you make this a 2X wager since the differential is so far apart or would you be a little concerend with how far this line is?

Gonna try to get to the various questions and comments as soon as I can (along with today’s games), but I did want to address this. Buckle in, this might be long...

First off, I RARELY vary my bet size. It’s so rare that I don’t think I’ve done it this season at all. I know this is a boring approach, but my philosophy is more of a slow and steady approach.

With that as a starting point, my answer probably won’t surprise you. I do NOT recommend upping bet size based solely on my model (or any other model frankly). On to some specifics (in no particular order)...

Marist is awful. I doubt I will play another over involving them this season. They play slow, they turn it over a lot, and they miss a ton of shots.

That said, I have several other resources that I look at in addition to analyzing actual matchups. Here’s where some of those resources come down on this game:

Dunkel Index (http://dunkelindex.com/basketball_level/ncaa-college/) - 117
Massey Ratings (https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/ncaa-d1/games) - 107
Sagarin (https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaa...rin/2020/team/) - 115
RoundTable Ratings (http://www.rtsratings.com/Weekly_Projected_CBB.asp) - 128
DRatings (https://www.dratings.com/predictor/n...l-predictions/) - 144
Kenpom - 109

Based on that, it looks like the model might not be as far off as it looks compared to the posted total. Honesty, that kind of agreement is a very encouraging sign. But still not enough for me to double up.

The last piece I will get to in more detail in responding to DD’s question, but there are simply times when trying to model predictions that the model gets it wrong no matter how accurate it is overall. There could be any number of reasons for this, so when I see a 20+ point differential, I’m always concerned that could be going on.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I've noticed a nice win % on the teams with a 10 point variance also. Nebraska and Rutgers both also last night.

This is a great example of why I share the predictions and results from my model. I only have so much time in a day. I’m a one man band so to speak. So having other eyes looking for stuff is great. Early on I was keeping an eye on these, but I didn’t see any meaningful advantage. It’s entirely possible that is changing, however. Please continue to share if you see something valuable.

[bigbluemist]

Having been out of touch for a while. Where do you find the +10 differential? Or is that you guys doing the model?

sorry, just me trying to catch up

[trillz]

Having been out of touch for a while. Where do you find the +10 differential? Or is that you guys doing the model?

sorry, just me trying to catch up

Think it is just saying the number his model predicts being 10 points +\- in either direction of what the actual total is.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/8

6:30

St John’s/Georgetown u155.5

7:30

Texas A&M-CC/Stephen F. Austin o134

[HeeluvaGuy]

Having been out of touch for a while. Where do you find the +10 differential? Or is that you guys doing the model?

sorry, just me trying to catch up

Column K of the model in the first post of the thread.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Couple of observations:

As you know, I like first half unders. Using your model, if one would have played the game unders, along with the first half under for those games, one would be, I believe, 13-1. I know it's only two days, but 13-1 may warrant a closer look.

Also, interestingly, your model has very few "extra game" unders of 10+ differential. Thoughts?

Keep up the great work.

DD

13-1 is definitely worth keeping an eye on. I’m not opposed to posting the 10+ differentials here, but since the grading is done using closing lines it’s not really practical.

As for your second observation, I noticed that right around the first of the year when conference play got going. I THINK it’s a result of imbalances in defensive efficiencies. I did a quick scan, and the lowest rated P5 team by kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency is around 210. That means that the bottom roughly 40% of the worst teams by defensive efficiency are in smaller conferences. And that makes sense because up until now, those teams have been cupcakes for the bigger schools to feast on.

I think that as the season goes on that will even out a little, but time will tell. Another one of the perils of working with an untested product.

[HeeluvaGuy]

One addition:

10:00Bakersfield/Cal Baptist o140.5

[Hman]

GL tonight

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/8

6:30

St John’s/Georgetown u155.5

7:30

Texas A&M-CC/Stephen F. Austin o134

One addition:

10:00Bakersfield/Cal Baptist o140.5

3-0 +3u
YTD: 70-50 +15.83u

[Mackballs]

Excellent evening in here

[jimm246]

Couple of observations:

As you know, I like first half unders. Using your model, if one would have played the game unders, along with the first half under for those games, one would be, I believe, 13-1. I know it's only two days, but 13-1 may warrant a closer look.

Also, interestingly, your model has very few "extra game" unders of 10+ differential. Thoughts?

Keep up the great work.

DD

Good work heel.

Yesterday I wasn't keeping track but I don't think none of the under 1st half hit. It was like 0-6

[BOA12]

3-0 +3u
YTD: 70-50 +15.83u

Head to toe know weakness. BOL HGUY.

[JayDr3am]

good shit

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks guys. Even if I don’t respond to every post or every point donation, I appreciate them. I see the views creeping up on the thread, which is nice, but it’s always nice to have people comment or donate.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/9

7:00

Detroit/Cleveland St o142.5
Edwardsville/Morehead St o137.5

[Hman]

GL with the plays