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  • bigbluemist
    SBR High Roller
    • 04-06-11
    • 121

    #316
    It goes without saying the picks are fantastic!

    I enjoy reading the analysis that goes into it.
    Comment
    • HeeluvaGuy
      SBR MVP
      • 02-15-14
      • 3449

      #317
      1/14

      7:00

      Ball St/Eastern Michigan o124.5

      8:00

      Iowa/Northwestern u144

      Might have more later.

      Comment
      • HeeluvaGuy
        SBR MVP
        • 02-15-14
        • 3449

        #318
        Originally posted by bigbluemist
        It goes without saying the picks are fantastic!

        I enjoy reading the analysis that goes into it.
        Time permitting, I’ll give an example of some of true things I look at “behind the scenes” using today’s plays. I know some folks are just interested in the picks, which is fine and understandable, but I know when I’m looking at other people’s picks it’s nice to know their methodology. I have done more of that in the past on here and we’ve had some good discussions.
        Comment
        • HeeluvaGuy
          SBR MVP
          • 02-15-14
          • 3449

          #319
          Interesting tweet here that touches on something doubledime asked about:

          Comment
          • steel26
            SBR Hustler
            • 11-14-12
            • 53

            #320
            Hey where is the link to the table?
            Comment
            • BOA12
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-19-12
              • 20622

              #321
              Originally posted by steel26
              Hey where is the link to the table?
              Go back to page 1 of this thread. about middle of page. Just logged on myself.
              Comment
              • doubledime
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-22-09
                • 9751

                #322
                Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                Interesting tweet here that touches on something doubledime asked about:

                https://twitter.com/johngasaway/stat...309235201?s=21
                Comment
                • HeeluvaGuy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-15-14
                  • 3449

                  #323
                  Just the two plays tonight. Didn’t have time to write them up. Maybe tomorrow.

                  Comment
                  • steel26
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 11-14-12
                    • 53

                    #324
                    Ok got. It thanks. These is truly gold
                    Comment
                    • BagelBoy
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 12-19-19
                      • 20

                      #325
                      Terrible first half from E Mich - You were on the right side. Unlucky
                      Comment
                      • HeeluvaGuy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-15-14
                        • 3449

                        #326
                        Originally posted by BagelBoy
                        Terrible first half from E Mich - You were on the right side. Unlucky
                        They combined to go 23-46 from the FT line. Can't handicap that nonsense.
                        Comment
                        • HeeluvaGuy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-15-14
                          • 3449

                          #327
                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                          1/14

                          7:00

                          Ball St/Eastern Michigan o124.5

                          8:00

                          Iowa/Northwestern u144

                          1-1 -.1u
                          YTD: 83-55 +22.73u
                          Jan: 31-17 +11.8u
                          Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
                          Comment
                          • HeeluvaGuy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-15-14
                            • 3449

                            #328
                            Running behind today. Will get to this as soon as I can.
                            Comment
                            • HeeluvaGuy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-15-14
                              • 3449

                              #329
                              1/15

                              7:00
                              Navy/Lehigh o123.5

                              8:00
                              Xavier/Marquette u144.5

                              9:00
                              New Mexico/Colorado St u153

                              Last edited by HeeluvaGuy; 01-15-20, 02:39 PM. Reason: Fix Navy, not Army
                              Comment
                              • bigbluemist
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 04-06-11
                                • 121

                                #330
                                Is that Navy-Lehigh?

                                My book has Army-Holy Cross 143.5
                                Comment
                                • HeeluvaGuy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-15-14
                                  • 3449

                                  #331
                                  Originally posted by bigbluemist
                                  Is that Navy-Lehigh?

                                  My book has Army-Holy Cross 143.5
                                  Should have been Navy/Lehigh o123.5. Sorry about the mix up and thanks for catching that. I looked at that Army game for a while, so it must have stuck in my head. Fixed now.
                                  Comment
                                  • HeeluvaGuy
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-15-14
                                    • 3449

                                    #332
                                    Two additions that aren’t from the 10+ differential games:

                                    8:00

                                    Stephen F. Austin/Central Arkansas o155.5
                                    South Dakota/NDSU o142.5 (Rotation #833)


                                    Comment
                                    • Mackballs
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-01-16
                                      • 5810

                                      #333
                                      Your plays are so solid man, you get no luck at all.

                                      South Dakota game can't get to ot cuz of a last second layup and the kid misses the ft to hit the over....and then SFA game tied with a few seconds left and can't get to ot either....losing both of those just no luck at all.
                                      Comment
                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-15-14
                                        • 3449

                                        #334
                                        Getting roughed up tonight. All the breaks went the wrong way. Lost the South Dakota game by the hook on a layup with 1 second to go in a tie game. Needed 3 points in the last 1:09 in that one and they scored 2.

                                        Lost the SFA game by 3. Game was tied at 76 and a foul was called with 2 seconds left.

                                        Lost Marquette thanks to 13 points in the final 1:13 in a 20 point game.
                                        Comment
                                        • HeeluvaGuy
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-15-14
                                          • 3449

                                          #335
                                          Oh, and Colorado State shot 11-16 from three in the first half. That's roughly double their season average.
                                          Comment
                                          • jimm246
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-01-12
                                            • 1357

                                            #336
                                            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                            Oh, and Colorado State shot 11-16 from three in the first half. That's roughly double their season average.
                                            I feel you brother nothing's going our way today but we'll bounce back.
                                            Comment
                                            • HeeluvaGuy
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-15-14
                                              • 3449

                                              #337
                                              Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                              1/15

                                              7:00
                                              Navy/Lehigh o123.5

                                              8:00
                                              Xavier/Marquette u144.5

                                              9:00
                                              New Mexico/Colorado St u153


                                              Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                              8:00

                                              Stephen F. Austin/Central Arkansas o155.5
                                              South Dakota/NDSU o142.5 (Rotation #833)



                                              1-4 -3.4u
                                              YTD: 84-59 +19.33u
                                              Jan: 32-21 +8.4u
                                              Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
                                              Miserable night. Late game is still going on, but as of right now CSU is 18-27 from three. Can't say I've ever seen that.
                                              Comment
                                              • cmatth1326
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-18-08
                                                • 761

                                                #338
                                                That sucked. One bad beat is hard enough to handle, but multiple in one night is rough. Why can’t I have a night with multiple good breaks in a night? I guess that’s why they call it gambling.
                                                Comment
                                                • jimm246
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-01-12
                                                  • 1357

                                                  #339
                                                  That's half the story if New Mexico would just play better defense also letting the other team score 50% for the field and 60ish percent 3s. new Mexico I hate you
                                                  Comment
                                                  • bigbluemist
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 04-06-11
                                                    • 121

                                                    #340
                                                    The Marquette game was a SVP, “Bad beat.” That last minute + was insane.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-15-14
                                                      • 3449

                                                      #341
                                                      Originally posted by bigbluemist
                                                      The Marquette game was a SVP, “Bad beat.” That last minute + was insane.
                                                      At least we won something?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                        • 3449

                                                        #342
                                                        Note: My bad luck with the totals carried over into my real life last night. One of my accounts was hacked. Huge pain, but will survive. Just be careful in case the bad luck isn’t finished with me yet.

                                                        1/16

                                                        7:00

                                                        Stetson/North Alabama o129.5
                                                        Quinnipiac/Manhattan o132

                                                        8:00

                                                        Bakersfield/UMKC o130.5


                                                        Comment
                                                        • bigbluemist
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 04-06-11
                                                          • 121

                                                          #343
                                                          GL today
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HeeluvaGuy
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-15-14
                                                            • 3449

                                                            #344
                                                            Originally posted by bigbluemist
                                                            GL today
                                                            Thanks. We are proof that UNC and UK fans can peacefully coexist.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bigbluemist
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 04-06-11
                                                              • 121

                                                              #345
                                                              Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                              Thanks. We are proof that UNC and UK fans can peacefully coexist.
                                                              Exactly. Lived in NC for close to 4 years in early to mid 90’s. Love the NC mountains
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jimm246
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-01-12
                                                                • 1357

                                                                #346
                                                                Yes we got an overtime that went our way
                                                                Comment
                                                                • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-15-14
                                                                  • 3449

                                                                  #347
                                                                  Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                                  1/16

                                                                  7:00

                                                                  Stetson/North Alabama o129.5
                                                                  Quinnipiac/Manhattan o132

                                                                  8:00

                                                                  Bakersfield/UMKC o130.5



                                                                  1-2 -1.2u
                                                                  YTD: 85-61 +18.13u
                                                                  Jan: 33-23 +7.2u
                                                                  Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
                                                                  Happy to get some luck in the Bakersfield game. Need to do better though.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • bigbluemist
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 04-06-11
                                                                    • 121

                                                                    #348
                                                                    Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                                    1-2 -1.2u
                                                                    YTD: 85-61 +18.13u
                                                                    Jan: 33-23 +7.2u
                                                                    Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
                                                                    Happy to get some luck in the Bakersfield game. Need to do better though.
                                                                    Had a little tough luck the night before so it’s evened out a little.

                                                                    Both teams in the Manhattan game shot under 40%. You’d think they’d be in the low to mid 40’s which would have made it a winner.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BOA12
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 02-19-12
                                                                      • 20622

                                                                      #349
                                                                      Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                                      1-2 -1.2u
                                                                      YTD: 85-61 +18.13u
                                                                      Jan: 33-23 +7.2u
                                                                      Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
                                                                      Happy to get some luck in the Bakersfield game. Need to do better though.
                                                                      Doing fine by me HGuy. To a big weekend .
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                                        • 3449

                                                                        #350
                                                                        Originally posted by bigbluemist
                                                                        Had a little tough luck the night before so it’s evened out a little.

                                                                        Both teams in the Manhattan game shot under 40%. You’d think they’d be in the low to mid 40’s which would have made it a winner.
                                                                        It was actually worse than that if you break it down by 2, 3, and FT percentages. Quinnipiac was just 9-26 (34.6%) on 2-point shots. That’s over 10% lower than their season average. Likewise, Manhattan was 8-19 from the FT line, which is about 20% below their average.

                                                                        At a high level, there are three ways to lose a total: (1) be wrong about the pace, (2) be wrong about efficiency, or (3) a combination of the two. For this game I predicted 68 possessions. There were actually 70, so the pace was actually better than I predicted.

                                                                        Efficiency (or lack thereof) is what killed this play. The two main components that go into efficiency are (1) turnovers, and (2) shooting. Here, there weren’t a lot of turnovers, so this loss is almost 100% on shooting, specifically the two stats above.

                                                                        I have always said that shooting percentage is the part of this I struggle the most with. As a result, many of my losses can be attributed to poor shooting. I would love one day to create a volatility index for teams to get a sense of what teams perform more erratically and which teams are more reliable from an efficiency standpoint. Maybe over the summer...
                                                                        Comment
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