Mostly totals

[BOA12]

Thanks guys. Even if I don’t respond to every post or every point donation, I appreciate them. I see the views creeping up on the thread, which is nice, but it’s always nice to have people comment or donate.

You will be judged on how many donate. HGUY looking good.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/9

7:00

Detroit/Cleveland St o142.5
Edwardsville/Morehead St o137.5

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 71-51 +15.73u

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/10

7:00

Niagara/Quinnipiac o146

Not much to choose from today. I already have my numbers for Saturday up on the spreadsheet, but lines obviously aren’t out yet.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/10

7:00

Niagara/Quinnipiac o146

0-1 -1.1u
YTD: 71-52 +14.63u

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/11

12:00
Alabama/Kentucky u153

2:00
Creighton/Xavier u143

2:15
Wisconsin/Penn St u135

4:00
Old Dominion/Charlotte o115
UNC Wilmington/Elon o136
Morgan St/Florida A&M o139
Norfolk St/Howard o137

6:30
Jackson St/Alcorn St o138

8:00
Oklahoma/Iowa St u150.5
Chicago St/UTRGV o146

[BagelBoy]

OMG Creighton game almost lost 120 Total with 50 seconds left. 10 point game...Unreal.

[HeeluvaGuy]

OMG Creighton game almost lost 120 Total with 50 seconds left. 10 point game...Unreal.

22 points in the last 52 seconds in a 12 point game. Absurd, but a win.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/11

12:00
Alabama/Kentucky u153

2:00
Creighton/Xavier u143

2:15
Wisconsin/Penn St u135

4:00
Old Dominion/Charlotte o115
UNC Wilmington/Elon o136
Morgan St/Florida A&M o139
Norfolk St/Howard o137

6:30
Jackson St/Alcorn St o138

8:00
Oklahoma/Iowa St u150.5
Chicago St/UTRGV o146

8-2 +5.8u
YTD: 79-54 +19.83u

Probably won't have lines or picks up for Sunday until late morning.

[Mackballs]

8-2 +5.8u
YTD: 79-54 +19.83u

Probably won't have lines or picks up for Sunday until late morning.

Tremendous work

[bigbluemist]

8-2 +5.8u
YTD: 79-54 +19.83u

Probably won't have lines or picks up for Sunday until late morning.

Wow, what a day man. You’re on 🔥🔥

[doubledime]

Well done Sir

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tremendous work

Wow, what a day man. You’re on 

Well done Sir

Thanks guys. Had a couple of close calls, but things worked out. Much better than the days when those close calls break the other way.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/12

Noon

Mich St/Purdue u136

2:00

Siena/Manhattan o130

[loveofsports]

Pmd you

[HeeluvaGuy]

Really appreciate all of the kind words here and in PMs. Yesterday was pretty incredible for the model. The 10+ differential totals ended up 26-11, and I’m very happy that my picks were able to beat that on a percentage basis.

I don’t say this to brag, however. Rather, I want to remind everyone to use caution. The season is going really well, but we all know that it’s probably not realistic to run 60% all season. I’ll do my best, but I think we need to be prepared for some hiccups.

BOL today to all!

[bigbluemist]

GL today!

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/12

Noon

Mich St/Purdue u136

2:00

Siena/Manhattan o130

2-0 +2u
81-54 +21.83u

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm not really an NFL guy, but I dabble in props. There's pretty good value on Russell Wilson to throw an interception (+140). It's rotation #6707.

[steel26]

How do you Calculate the pace

[HeeluvaGuy]

How do you Calculate the pace

Basically look at how each team's possessions per game compares to the Division I average. Then I have a multiplier that I use to take out an observed bias. Not part of the model numbers, but I also look at average offensive and defensive possession lengths as a bit of a cross check.

The model predicted possessions is not perfect and doesn't account for every possible input, but it's pretty accurate. I try to pick up the other variables when I do my secondary analysis.

Thanks for stopping by.

[BetThenSweat]

Basically look at how each team's possessions per game compares to the Division I average. Then I have a multiplier that I use to take out an observed bias. Not part of the model numbers, but I also look at average offensive and defensive possession lengths
The model predicted possessions is not perfect and doesn't account for every possible input, but it's pretty accurate. I try to pick up the other variables when I do my secondary analysis.

Thanks for stopping by.

What does your model show for Arizona/Oregon State

[loveofsports]

What does your model show for Arizona/Oregon State

It can be found here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1365386493


But, Project total is 132.9
Prject poss 70.8
Projected score Arizona 66.3- Oregon State 66.6

[BetThenSweat]

It can be found here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1365386493


But, Project total is 132.9
Prject poss 70.8
Projected score Arizona 66.3- Oregon State 66.6

Thank you

[loveofsports]

Thank you

Pleasure man nice to see you around. Hope you bring some more NBA plays!

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/13

7:30

South Carolina St/Howard o146

[BagelBoy]

Great work this week - thank you for the plays - Keep it up - Cheers.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great work this week - thank you for the plays - Keep it up - Cheers.

Thanks. I’ll keep plugging away, but it’s going to be tough to duplicate the last week.

Your post prompted me to look back and see what December looked like versus January. I like the way Ayo does that in his thread, so I’m going to try to copy him. Keep me honest if I screw it up.

YTD: 81-54 +21.83u
Jan: 29-16 +10.9u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

[BOA12]

Thanks. I’ll keep plugging away, but it’s going to be tough to duplicate the last week.

Your post prompted me to look back and see what December looked like versus January. I like the way Ayo does that in his thread, so I’m going to try to copy him. Keep me honest if I screw it up.

YTD: 81-54 +21.83u
Jan: 29-16 +10.9u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

2 point post. And toast.

[cmatth1326]

Dang sportsbook doesn’t have that total.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/13

7:30

South Carolina St/Howard o146

1-0 +1u
YTD: 82-54 +22.83u
Jan: 30-16 +11.9u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

[coolguy73739]

Are you taking League average of all 353 teams for your calculation or individual team's conference average?
Thanks in advance..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Are you taking League average of all 353 teams for your calculation or individual team's conference average?
Thanks in advance..

I use the Division I average of all 353 teams. The idea is to figure out each team's pace (i.e., possessions per game) in relation to the average. Once you have that, you can determine if the game pace between any two teams will be above or below the pace of an average game.

Pace is actually pretty predictable because coaches have preferred styles and they teach their teams to play that style. When you get complementary styles, it gets even more predictable. In other words, two fast teams will typically play a game well above the average number of possessions. It gets more difficult when you have a UNC vs. Virginia kind of matchup with contrasting styles. But the really hard part is trying to predict efficiencies...

[coolguy73739]

Thanks for your prompt reply. Really appreciate..
One more thing..
Do you take PACE ADJUSTED data in your calculations for Efficiency?
PAce adjusted data differs from average..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for your prompt reply. Really appreciate..
One more thing..
Do you take PACE ADJUSTED data in your calculations for Efficiency?
PAce adjusted data differs from average..

Pace adjusted. I have used efficiencies for many years, but this is the first year that I have tried to predict where the scoring will come from (2, 3, or FT). I think that has helped a lot. Like with pace, if you have a team that gets to the FT line a lot playing a team that fouls a lot, you start to get at least one fairly predictable piece of the puzzle.

[coolguy73739]

Thanks Bud..
Ya, the PUZZLE.. rightly said..
Thanks for the input and Good luck for the season.
You already doing Fantastic..