Mostly totals

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good luck man! I've rarely had any luck with season long threads on here. Everyone goes cold at some point and needs a break. Don't be a stranger!

Season threads are tough. Gotta be willing to take your lumps. With the exception of last season (when I didn't have a thread), I've had pretty good luck in the postseason. That might bring me back, but probably not for the conference tourneys.

For anyone curious, here's how I've done in the three season long NCAAB threads I've done here:

Year	Wins	Losses	%	Units
2019-20	159	140	53.2%	5.35
2017-18	105	95	52.5%	6.29
2016-17	113	92	55.1%	12.75
Total	377	327	53.6%	24.39

Links:

2017-18: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ll-thread.html
2016-17: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ps-thread.html

[bigbluemist]

Bump for reference

[HeeluvaGuy]

Gonna give it a shot tonight.

3/10

6:00

MD Eastern Shore/Delaware St u144.5

7:00

Hofstra -1
UIC +4.5

9:00

North Dakota/NDSU o137

[bigbluemist]

Gonna give it a shot tonight.

3/10

6:00

MD Eastern Shore/Delaware St u144.5

Did I read the spreadsheet wrong? I thought it showed a total of 158?

Good to see back

GL

[HeeluvaGuy]

Did I read the spreadsheet wrong? I thought it showed a total of 158?

Good to see back

GL

You’re reading it correctly. I’m going against the model for that game. I won’t have time to get the numbers, but the model has been pretty unreliable on those extra games. If you look at any given day, nearly all of the extra games are predicted to go over. I think I know the reason for this, but I haven’t figured out a fix yet.

Thanks for pointing that out. I should have mentioned it in my post.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3/10

6:00

MD Eastern Shore/Delaware St u144.5

7:00

Hofstra -1
UIC +4.5

9:00

North Dakota/NDSU o137

3-1 +1.9u
YTD: 162-141 +7.25u
Mar: 6-6 -.6u
Feb: 47-48 -5.7u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Only UIC let us down with its 3-15 shooting from three. On to tomorrow...

[HeeluvaGuy]

3/11

1:00

George Mason -5



Might have others later.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3:00

Oregon St -3

[HeeluvaGuy]

5:30

Washington/Arizona o139


EDIT: This is going against my model.

[HeeluvaGuy]

That's all I have for today. BOL all!

[bigbluemist]

3/11

1:00

George Mason -5



Might have others later.

GM and their inability to hit FT’s almost screwed this one up!

[HeeluvaGuy]

GM and their inability to hit FT’s almost screwed this one up!

And in the next game, Alfonso Plummer sets the Pac 12 single game made three record and beats his career high by 12 points. We lose by 1 point. What can you do?

[Fred The Hammer]

Had ND State and the Zags Over yesterday. They're about the only games to go Over. I did have UIC/N Ky Under 132 and they scored 20+ pts in the last 3 min to ruin it. Back to Overs for me!

Not sure exactly how to best play Nebraska @ Indiana tonite @ Bankers Life in Indy. Neb's top 2 guards are out. They've added football players just to fill out their roster. Thats never good. Indiana is no world beater, but they are big & strong inside and Neb has no size. IU put up 96 (OT) and 82 on Neb already this year. Went big on Indiana Over 79.5. They'll want to get some momentum and Neb plays fast and gives up the rim. Indiana will probably need to shoot 20+ Ft's to get there but I see something like 85-63

[HeeluvaGuy]

3/11

1:00

George Mason -5

3:00

Oregon St -3

5:30

Washington/Arizona o139

2-1 +.9u
YTD: 164-142 +8.15u
Mar: 8-7 +.3u
Feb: 47-48 -5.7u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

[Fred The Hammer]

Well if thats it then we closed strong. I had IU & Marshall over and cashed TCU 2nd half +6.5. Had TCU -2 for a nice 3 teamer for $338 and they had a 4 pt lead but ran out of gas late.

GL HG and everyone else. I think this thing will run out of steam eventually, but when Forest Gump has Corona then the shit has most definitely hit the fan!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I don’t think I’ll be posting plays today. Assuming games go forward, the unusual circumstances make it unwise to try to predict what will happen. I suspect some games will have a ton of scoring and others will be extremely low scoring without any fans in the buildings. I will have the spreadsheet updated shortly, however, for anyone willing to wade into this pool today. BOL to all!

[HeeluvaGuy]

With Kansas and Duke reportedly pulling out of the NCAA Tournament, it looks like the season is officially done. Here is the final tally for my last three threads. Hope to be back at it next season!

Year	Wins	Losses	%	Units
2019-20	164	142	53.6%	8.15
2017-18	105	95	52.5%	6.29
2016-17	113	92	55.1%	12.75
Total	382	329	53.7%	27.19

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's how my model finished up ATS for the season:

	Wins	Losses
SIdes	1873	1934	49.20%
Totals	2014	1859	52.00%
All Plays	3887	3793	50.61%
Overs	1322	1203	52.36%
Unders	692	656	51.34%
Dogs	1129	1138	49.80%
Favorites	744	796	48.31%

Like I said in the first post, this is the first season I have used this model. I built it out of a bit of desperation when the testing I had been doing on other approaches hadn't produced good results. 52% over nearly 4,000 games is a pretty good result for the totals. My hope is that with some time to work on this I can make it better for next season.

Weird not to finish the season with One Shining Moment, but you never know what life will throw at you next.

[doubledime]

Here's how my model finished up ATS for the season:

	Wins	Losses
SIdes	1873	1934	49.20%
Totals	2014	1859	52.00%
All Plays	3887	3793	50.61%
Overs	1322	1203	52.36%
Unders	692	656	51.34%
Dogs	1129	1138	49.80%
Favorites	744	796	48.31%

Like I said in the first post, this is the first season I have used this model. I built it out of a bit of desperation when the testing I had been doing on other approaches hadn't produced good results. 52% over nearly 4,000 games is a pretty good result for the totals. My hope is that with some time to work on this I can make it better for next season.

Weird not to finish the season with One Shining Moment, but you never know what life will throw at you next.

Well done. Thanks for sharing your model. By any chance do you know the totals record on Extra games vs Regular games. My gut feeling is that your totals record would be better if it did not include the Extra games, but only Regular games. Thanks again DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well done. Thanks for sharing your model. By any chance do you know the totals record on Extra games vs Regular games. My gut feeling is that your totals record would be better if it did not include the Extra games, but only Regular games. Thanks again DD

I haven't gotten that far yet, but that's one of the first things I want to figure out. I have a strong suspicion you're are correct.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's how my model finished up ATS for the season:

	Wins	Losses
SIdes	1873	1934	49.20%
Totals	2014	1859	52.00%
All Plays	3887	3793	50.61%
Overs	1322	1203	52.36%
Unders	692	656	51.34%
Dogs	1129	1138	49.80%
Favorites	744	796	48.31%

Like I said in the first post, this is the first season I have used this model. I built it out of a bit of desperation when the testing I had been doing on other approaches hadn't produced good results. 52% over nearly 4,000 games is a pretty good result for the totals. My hope is that with some time to work on this I can make it better for next season.

Weird not to finish the season with One Shining Moment, but you never know what life will throw at you next.

I finally finished up separating out the "extra" games as DD suggested. The results are better, but not as much as it may have seemed during the season. Note, however, that I have not broken these results down by over/under or favorite/dog and probably won't get around to that.

Season results without the "Extra" games:

	Wins	Losses
SIdes	1580	1588	49.87%
Totals	1681	1530	52.35%
All Plays	3261	3118	51.12%

[BOA12]

I finally finished up separating out the "extra" games as DD suggested. The results are better, but not as much as it may have seemed during the season. Note, however, that I have not broken these results down by over/under or favorite/dog and probably won't get around to that.

Season results without the "Extra" games:

	Wins	Losses
SIdes	1580	1588	49.87%
Totals	1681	1530	52.35%
All Plays	3261	3118	51.12%

Waiting on a friend.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Waiting on a friend.

I doubt I’ll have a thread this year. I haven’t had the time to put into it, and I’m not sure it’s worth it will all of the unknowns this season. I have also soured quite a bit on this site. The negativity here is really bad.

[BOA12]

I doubt I’ll have a thread this year. I haven’t had the time to put into it, and I’m not sure it’s worth it will all of the unknowns this season. I have also soured quite a bit on this site. The negativity here is really bad.

Yeah, I here you. BOL. Civil war wanted, not being civil. Plenty of those loons.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I do have one (so far) that I'm playing tomorrow:

7:00 Green Bay/Minnesota u150.5
Taking a stab here largely because of the coaching change at Green Bay. Linc Darner ran one of the most uptempo offenses in the NCAA during his time at GB. He was fired after last season, and his replacement is Will Ryan. Ryan is the son of Bo Ryan, who ran the swing offense for years at Wisconsin. I look for this game to have around 70 possessions as a result, which I hope will be enough to keep this one under the total. (FWIW, Minnesota didn't break 150 in its first 8 OOC games last season, but they did go over that in the two non-conference games between Christmas and New Year's.)

[BOA12]

I do have one (so far) that I'm playing tomorrow:

7:00 Green Bay/Minnesota u150.5
Taking a stab here largely because of the coaching change at Green Bay. Linc Darner ran one of the most uptempo offenses in the NCAA during his time at GB. He was fired after last season, and his replacement is Will Ryan. Ryan is the son of Bo Ryan, who ran the swing offense for years at Wisconsin. I look for this game to have around 70 possessions as a result, which I hope will be enough to keep this one under the total. (FWIW, Minnesota didn't break 150 in its first 8 OOC games last season, but they did go over that in the two non-conference games between Christmas and New Year's.)

Black & blue better than blue & grey. Jonesing, going Under my friend.

[doubledime]

I do have one (so far) that I'm playing tomorrow:

7:00 Green Bay/Minnesota u150.5
Taking a stab here largely because of the coaching change at Green Bay. Linc Darner ran one of the most uptempo offenses in the NCAA during his time at GB. He was fired after last season, and his replacement is Will Ryan. Ryan is the son of Bo Ryan, who ran the swing offense for years at Wisconsin. I look for this game to have around 70 possessions as a result, which I hope will be enough to keep this one under the total. (FWIW, Minnesota didn't break 150 in its first 8 OOC games last season, but they did go over that in the two non-conference games between Christmas and New Year's.)

Best of luck Heel. Always look forward to your plays, and the thought behind them.

[BOA12]

I do have one (so far) that I'm playing tomorrow:

7:00 Green Bay/Minnesota u150.5
Taking a stab here largely because of the coaching change at Green Bay. Linc Darner ran one of the most uptempo offenses in the NCAA during his time at GB. He was fired after last season, and his replacement is Will Ryan. Ryan is the son of Bo Ryan, who ran the swing offense for years at Wisconsin. I look for this game to have around 70 possessions as a result, which I hope will be enough to keep this one under the total. (FWIW, Minnesota didn't break 150 in its first 8 OOC games last season, but they did go over that in the two non-conference games between Christmas and New Year's.)

Had to 2team tsr to get U50.5. Prov-15/ GB U 50.5.// $25 pays $17.85. BOL HGuy

[BOA12]

Had to 2team tsr to get U50.5. Prov-15/ GB U 50.5.// $25 pays $17.85. BOL HGuy

Thanks for the 10 pts matt .

[doubledime]

Points Awarded:

PandaBamboozal gave doubledime 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

Thanks Panda

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well I couldn’t have been more wrong about that first play. I may poke my head in from time to time, but I think I’m mostly gonna sit this season out. BOL to all!

[BOA12]

Well I couldn’t have been more wrong about that first play. I may poke my head in from time to time, but I think I’m mostly gonna sit this season out. BOL to all!

Happy Holidays HGuy.