Mostly totals

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-11-20, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

2/11

7:00

NC State/Syracuse u149

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:00

Miami (OH)/Toledo o140.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:00

Arkansas +3

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

This is probably it for today:

8:30

Nebraska/Maryland u147.5

1-3 -2.3u
YTD: 133-104 +18.85u
Feb: 24-17 +5.3u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

**tlk23** · 02-12-20, 10:19 AM

How much does your totals have to be different than the listed total for it to become a play for you? 10 point difference? 12 points?

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-12-20, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by tlk23

How much does your totals have to be different than the listed total for it to become a play for you? 10 point difference? 12 points?

I don’t really use the model that way. I don’t have threshold numbers, but generally speaking I tend not to pick against the model (though I have done that).

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-12-20, 02:05 PM

2/12

6:30

Creighton/Seton Hall u146.5

Gonna look through the extra games, but barring a line change that’s it for the regular games.

**tlk23** · 02-12-20, 02:21 PM

So Creighton and/Seton Hall is the play.
Why is Kansas/WVU and Alabama/Auburn not a play?

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-12-20, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by tlk23

So Creighton and/Seton Hall is the play.
Why is Kansas/WVU and Alabama/Auburn not a play?

In addition to the model, I look at about 10 other factors. One of the limitations of the model is that it doesn’t account for home/away efficiencies, so I do that manually behind the scenes. Both Auburn and West Virginia are significantly better offensively at home versus on the road. That was a big factor in each. I love West Virginia as a road under, but I will rarely play them as a home under.

I actually liked the Bama game at u161 quite a bit, but another of my secondary analysis factors didn’t agree on the under so I passed.

BTW, Seton Hall is strangely better offensively on the road than they are at home. It’s not a huge difference, but their points per possession on the road is 1.018 versus 1.01 at home. Creighton, on the other hand, is 1.128 at home and just 1.001 on the road.

**tlk23** · 02-12-20, 03:33 PM

Good work.

**NYproGambler** · 02-12-20, 07:09 PM

Hope Creighton and seton hall slows down... not looking too good

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-12-20, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

2/12

6:30

Creighton/Seton Hall u146.5

0-1 -1.1u
YTD: 133-105 +17.75u
Feb: 24-18 +4.2u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-13-20, 01:53 PM

2/13

6:00

Longwood/UNC Asheville o143.5

7:00

Delaware/Elon o141.5
Memphis/Cincinnati u138.5

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-13-20, 03:15 PM

11:00

Arizona St/Stanford u138.5

**Hman** · 02-13-20, 06:47 PM

GL tonight

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-13-20, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by Hman

GL tonight

Thanks. Needed a little luck in that first one.

**bigbluemist** · 02-13-20, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Thanks. Needed a little luck in that first one.

I’ve lost many by the hook..,nice start with that one and Elon

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-14-20, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

2/13

6:00

Longwood/UNC Asheville o143.5

7:00

Delaware/Elon o141.5
Memphis/Cincinnati u138.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

11:00

Arizona St/Stanford u138.5

2-2 -.2u
YTD: 135-107 +17.55u
Feb: 26-20 +4u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

Disappointing day seemed to turn at the half in Cincinnati. After a 56 point first half, they scored 90 points in the second half (before OT). The Stanford game was similar.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-14-20, 04:23 PM

7:00

Davidson/St Bonaventure o130

**BagelBoy** · 02-14-20, 05:57 PM

that it for the night? Not trying to sound pushy - just wondering if I need to keep checking - thanks your hard work!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-14-20, 06:14 PM

That’s it for me tonight. I try to put something in my post if I’m still looking, but definitely did not think you were being pushy. BOL!

**steel26** · 02-14-20, 07:31 PM

Nice work

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-14-20, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:00

Davidson/St Bonaventure o130

1-0 +1u
YTD: 136-107 +18.55u
Feb: 27-20 +5u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

I have my numbers already posted for Saturday, but I may post plays a little sporadically for tomorrow. Hoping to have time to get through the first couple of time slots tonight, but no guarantees.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-14-20, 11:13 PM

2/15

Noon

Oklahoma/Kansas u136.5
Texas Tech/Oklahoma St u133

1:00

Fairleigh Dickinson/Robert Morris o139

That's up through the 1:00 games.

**Hman** · 02-15-20, 08:32 AM

GL today

**bigbluemist** · 02-15-20, 09:00 AM

GL guys!!

**BagelBoy** · 02-15-20, 09:10 AM

GL - I went the other way on the kansas game just because it dropped 2 points lower already - I only did half unit. Lets get that money.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-15-20, 10:24 AM

2:00

Old Dominion/North Texas o128
Florida A&M/Delaware St o150.5

This is through the 2:00 games

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-15-20, 11:31 AM

3:00

Arkansas St/Texas St o136.5

Through the 3:00 games. Back later. BOL all!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-15-20, 12:09 PM

4:30

Central Arkansas/Sam Houston St o152

Up to the 5:00 games. Probably not back for a few hours.

**RM Logic** · 02-15-20, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by BagelBoy

GL - I went the other way on the kansas game just because it dropped 2 points lower already - I only did half unit. Lets get that money.

You got the right side- this game is flying over the total.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-15-20, 01:13 PM

Yeah. They weren’t supposed to combine for 50% from three.

**RM Logic** · 02-15-20, 04:00 PM

Rough start today- teams that struggle to score shooting well and the other games just horrible shooting.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-15-20, 05:02 PM

I may have to call it a day today. Family stuff to deal with. Sorry for the incomplete card. BOL with your plays.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-16-20, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

2/15

Noon

Oklahoma/Kansas u136.5
Texas Tech/Oklahoma St u133

1:00

Fairleigh Dickinson/Robert Morris o139

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

2:00

Old Dominion/North Texas o128
Florida A&M/Delaware St o150.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

3:00

Arkansas St/Texas St o136.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

4:30

Central Arkansas/Sam Houston St o152

2-5 -3.5u
YTD: 138-112 +15.05u
Feb: 29-25 +1.5u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

Ever have a day you wish you hadn't gotten out of bed for? That was yesterday for me. Topped it off when Hield hit the last ball in the three point contest while I was holding a Devin Booker +620 to win ticket. Will try to do better today.

**Mackballs** · 02-16-20, 10:52 AM

These days are inevitable when you bet multiple games daily. Not saying you in particular, but anyone who is a volume player. I tail all your plays and take some others as well. There's been some extremely good days this year. 2-5 is survivable. 250 plays and still well in the black. Your system and strategy clearly works. Thanks for sharing daily.

**doubledime** · 02-16-20, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

These days are inevitable when you bet multiple games daily. Not saying you in particular, but anyone who is a volume player. I tail all your plays and take some others as well. There's been some extremely good days this year. 2-5 is survivable. 250 plays and still well in the black. Your system and strategy clearly works. Thanks for sharing daily.

Well said

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-16-20, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

These days are inevitable when you bet multiple games daily. Not saying you in particular, but anyone who is a volume player. I tail all your plays and take some others as well. There's been some extremely good days this year. 2-5 is survivable. 250 plays and still well in the black. Your system and strategy clearly works. Thanks for sharing daily.

Thanks. I appreciate this. Yesterday was a bad day all around, not just with sports betting, so the words of encouragement mean a little more today. I am honored, and often surprised, to see the level of trust folks have in my picks. It adds pressure, but it also pushes me to do the very best I can. Frustrating on the days it doesn't work out, but you're 100% right that one day does not a season make when you play the way I do.