Mostly totals

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00

Western Michigan/Miami (OH) o141.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Probably the last one:

7:00

Auburn/Arkansas u148

[HeeluvaGuy]

I had some time today to go back and confirm something that I thought I was seeing. The extra game totals are underperforming the model as a whole. In the 10 days I looked at, the extra totals were just 99-105 (48%). Something to keep in mind as we go forward.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I had some time today to go back and confirm something that I thought I was seeing. The extra game totals are underperforming the model as a whole. In the 10 days I looked at, the extra totals were just 99-105 (48%). Something to keep in mind as we go forward.

Following up on this, I went back to 1/1, which is basically the start of conference play. That 48% holds the whole time, while the non-extra games are at 52%.

This doesn't surprise me. The extra teams are largely bad offensively and defensively statistically speaking, and models like these tend to struggle at the margins.

I'm not going to eliminate those games entirely, but I will definitely proceed with caution when deciding whether to play them.

[bigbluemist]

Interesting.

Thanks for the work you put in and share.

[Mike Huntertz]

Always tweaking eh, HG??
Thanxs for your stuff.

[JayDr3am]

I had some time today to go back and confirm something that I thought I was seeing. The extra game totals are underperforming the model as a whole. In the 10 days I looked at, the extra totals were just 99-105 (48%). Something to keep in mind as we go forward.

thank you for the nugget HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

Always tweaking eh, HG??
Thanxs for your stuff.

For better or worse, that's the only way I know. But just to avoid any confusion, I haven't actually made a change to the model since I adjusted the pace down back on 12/20. I did, however, add one more level of analysis 5 or 6 days ago (after the 1-5 night). So far, so good.

Thanks for popping in.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Interesting.

Thanks for the work you put in and share.

I always say, I do it because I enjoy it. And since I'm doing it, might as well share. Even with Kentucky fans.

[mjsuax13]

Nice work HG. Keep it up!

[bigbluemist]

🤬🤬🤬 overtime!!!🤬🤬🤬

[Mackballs]

We may get ot fukked in both of these.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2/4

Tennessee/Alabama u146.5

7:00

Western Michigan/Miami (OH) o141.5

7:00

Auburn/Arkansas u148

1-2 -1.2u
YTD: 118-93 +15.95u
Feb: 9-6 +2.4u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

The overtime thing is frustrating, but the bigger problem was that at one point Arkansas was 10-17 from three. They shoot about 31% on the season, and Auburn allows about 31% from three. Shouldn't have ever been that close if the matchup had played out like it should have. Guess I'll try to be luckier tomorrow.

[HeeluvaGuy]

[bigbluemist]

Exactly!!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

2/5

7:00

Loyola (IL)/Indiana St o127.5
Wofford/VMI o134.5

[bigbluemist]

2/5

7:00

Loyola (IL)/Indiana St o127.5
Wofford/VMI o134.5

I show Loyola- Ind St going at 600EST

[HeeluvaGuy]

I show Loyola- Ind St going at 600EST

You’re right. It’s a 6:00 start. I’ll leave it just so the picks aren’t edited.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:30

NC State/Miami (FL) o141.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Barring some unexpected line movement, that’s it for me tonight. GL!

[JayDr3am]

Barring some unexpected line movement, that’s it for me tonight. GL!

theres alot of funky line movement today im not fond of

[RM Logic]

Loyola couldnt even score 40 points. These MVC teams cant score at all. Its like watching 1930's basketball.

[Louisvillekid1]

Nice work per usual

[HeeluvaGuy]

Loyola couldnt even score 40 points. These MVC teams cant score at all. Its like watching 1930's basketball.

They were awful. They scored 8 points over a 20 minute span at one point.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice work per usual

Nice to see you around. Hope all is well.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2/5

7:00

Loyola (IL)/Indiana St o127.5
Wofford/VMI o134.5

8:30

NC State/Miami (FL) o141.5

2-1 +.9u
YTD: 120-94 +16.85u
Feb: 11-7 +3.3u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
If Loyola had given us anything it could have been a sweep. But I will never complain about 2-1.

[Fred The Hammer]

Nice work as usual!!

Do you ever play overnights? I got BYU/Portland Over 146. Its 150 now. Tenn Martin was 152, but I'm scared of Tenn Tech's #340 offense.

Tenn Martin is 16-3 Over on the season. Another one I hit on SB Sunday is Neb Omaha. They went 20 pts Over last night and are on a 12-4 Over streak!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice work as usual!!

Do you ever play overnights? I got BYU/Portland Over 146. Its 150 now. Tenn Martin was 152, but I'm scared of Tenn Tech's #340 offense.

Tenn Martin is 16-3 Over on the season. Another one I hit on SB Sunday is Neb Omaha. They went 20 pts Over last night and are on a 12-4 Over streak!

Honestly, I get to it when I get to it. Most nights I typically do updates for the next day and review results. If I have time and energy, I’ll start looking at games. I probably sound like a broken record, but I don’t lose sleep over missing a few good numbers overnight. There are so many games that passing on a handful a day due to line movements is no biggie.

On a side note, there seems to be much more talk about trends on this board than I remember in recent years. I rarely ever look at that stuff, but it seems like folks are using it to some success this year.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry guys, it’s gonna be another piecemeal day. My plan is to go chronologically through the start times. I’ll see what I can get done.

2/6

6:00

USC Upstate/UNC Asheville o147

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00

UTSA/Old Dominion o142
UCF/East Carolina o134.5

7:30

North Texas/Middle Tennessee o134



This is up to the 8:00 games but does not include the extra games. Time permitting I’ll get to those later.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00

Georgia St/Louisiana u156

[Fred The Hammer]

Honestly, I get to it when I get to it. Most nights I typically do updates for the next day and review results. If I have time and energy, I’ll start looking at games. I probably sound like a broken record, but I don’t lose sleep over missing a few good numbers overnight. There are so many games that passing on a handful a day due to line movements is no biggie.

On a side note, there seems to be much more talk about trends on this board than I remember in recent years. I rarely ever look at that stuff, but it seems like folks are using it to some success this year.

I've always been a streak player because you can hit an ungodly % and always go away quick when it starts to fizzle. Right or wrong? Taking it game by game is always smart. You and my buddy hit NC State Over last night, but I was scared off because NC State couldn't hit shit lately and was on a 11-1 Under streak. It hit and you guys won while I missed out. It happens. Good thread and I enjoy your process. Its good to share ideas! GL!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00

Eastern Washington/Montana o145.5




That’s it for the regular games.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I've always been a streak player because you can hit an ungodly % and always go away quick when it starts to fizzle. Right or wrong? Taking it game by game is always smart. You and my buddy hit NC State Over last night, but I was scared off because NC State couldn't hit shit lately and was on a 11-1 Under streak. It hit and you guys won while I missed out. It happens. Good thread and I enjoy your process. Its good to share ideas! GL!!

The best streak/trend I’ve ever played was the Detroit Tigers’ over streak a few years ago. Picked it up after 8 or 9 games and I think the streak got to 20. Good times.

[Hman]

GL tonight