Mostly totals

**doubledime** · 01-27-20, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1/27

9:00 Kansas/Oklahoma St u135.5

Might have others in a bit.

Glad to see you're on this too. I have the under in the first half. Good luck to both of us.

**Noles1992** · 01-27-20, 07:37 PM

When I see DD AND HELLUV ON the same game I tend to follow. GL guys!

**BagelBoy** · 01-27-20, 10:20 PM

Wow Bama AM is terrible.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-27-20, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1/27

9:00 Kansas/Oklahoma St u135.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

8:30

Alabama A&M/Southern o131

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 101-81 +12.15u
Jan: 49-43 +1.22u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-28-20, 12:26 PM

1/28

6:30

Villanova/St John’s u146.5

7:00

Central Michigan/Miami (OH) o152.5

Will have a side if the line moves just a tad more.

**Chi_archie** · 01-28-20, 12:36 PM

good luck

thinking about that nova first half under as well

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-28-20, 01:08 PM

7:00

Cincinnati -5

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-28-20, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

good luck

thinking about that nova first half under as well

Thanks. I don’t handicap first halves, but a low scoring first half is almost always a must for a game under in college basketball. Maybe DD will have that first half under today.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-28-20, 02:36 PM

FYI to anyone looking for the Central Michigan game, it has been postponed due to potential cases of coronavirus at Miami U. Hope this is just precautionary.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-28-20, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by BagelBoy

Wow Bama AM is terrible.

I just looked at the box score for this one. Alabama A&M turned it over 23 times last night (31.5% of possessions). That’s nearly double their rate going into the game. That kind of outlier performance has been the story of the last two weeks.

**doubledime** · 01-28-20, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I just looked at the box score for this one. Alabama A&M turned it over 23 times last night (31.5% of possessions). That’s nearly double their rate going into the game. That kind of outlier performance has been the story of the last two weeks.

Great word choice.

**Chi_archie** · 01-28-20, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Thanks. I don’t handicap first halves, but a low scoring first half is almost always a must for a game under in college basketball. Maybe DD will have that first half under today.

Ok on pace

**bigbluemist** · 01-28-20, 08:58 PM

2-0

Nice job sir!!!

💪💪💪💪

**GoCougs!** · 01-28-20, 08:59 PM

Nice work today Heel. Well done.

**Mackballs** · 01-28-20, 09:01 PM

Solid

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-28-20, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1/28

6:30

Villanova/St John’s u146.5

7:00

Central Michigan/Miami (OH) o152.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:00

Cincinnati -5

2-0 +2u
YTD: 103-81 +14.15u
Jan: 51-43 +3.22u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Thanks fellas. I was starting to wonder if I was ever going to have another winning day.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 09:54 AM

1/29

Bucknell/Army o145.5

**trillz** · 01-29-20, 10:23 AM

Was just gonna let army -1 ride but was leaning over anyway and gotta hit it now that I see u on it. Lets go HG

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 11:48 AM

7:00

Missouri St/Northern Iowa u138

Got jammed up today, so that might be it.

**Chi_archie** · 01-29-20, 12:55 PM

nice work last night.

i've done half the card and only seeing 2 totals and 1 side I lean towards thus far.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 04:29 PM

7:30

Nicholls St/McNeese St o144

8:00

Incarnate Word/Houston Baptist o168.5

8:30

Indiana/Penn St o142.5 (Note that this contradicts my model)

**Fred The Hammer** · 01-29-20, 05:10 PM

Got Dayton/Duquesne Over 136 -105 at my local sportsbook. Pounded it for 3x my normal bet and another $100 online Over 137

Dayton's only been held to less then 77 once all season. The Flyers won at St. Louis 78-76 and St. Louis is better on def then Duquesne (KP 48th to 68th). I have it at 77-64 Dayton!!

**Fred The Hammer** · 01-29-20, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:30

Nicholls St/McNeese St o144

8:00

Incarnate Word/Houston Baptist o168.5

8:30

Indiana/Penn St o142.5 (Note that this contradicts my model)

IU fan and I like that one too! Penn State plays up tempo and IU is finally starting to hit some 3s occasionally. Penn State's 2 of last 3 home games they put up 89 on Iowa and 90 on Ohio State. You can throw out Wisconsin with the way they play. Should be somewhat of a track meet except IUs ball movement can get so stale in the halfcourt that they burn the shot clock down, but they will run as well!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Got Dayton/Duquesne Over 136 -105 at my local sportsbook. Pounded it for 3x my normal bet and another $100 online Over 137

Dayton's only been held to less then 77 once all season. The Flyers won at St. Louis 78-76 and St. Louis is better on def then Duquesne (KP 48th to 68th). I have it at 77-64 Dayton!!

My model spit out a weird number on that one. Looking around, I see a lot of 140+ predictions with only one or two below 137. I think the challenge there might be whether Duquesne can score enough. For your sake I hope they do. GL!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 06:06 PM

Last one:

7:00

Western Carolina +6

**trillz** · 01-29-20, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Last one:

7:00

Western Carolina +6

I’m gonna hit the ML

**bigbluemist** · 01-29-20, 06:29 PM

The Faulkner kid for WCU grew up close to where I live.

**Fred The Hammer** · 01-29-20, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

My model spit out a weird number on that one. Looking around, I see a lot of 140+ predictions with only one or two below 137. I think the challenge there might be whether Duquesne can score enough. For your sake I hope they do. GL!

They got there. Duquesne hit alot of deep 3s! I had Dayton as a FF, but they're not closing out some teams they should hammer. Tournament is going to be crazy this year!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 10:11 PM

What a nightmare day all around.

**JayDr3am** · 01-29-20, 10:25 PM

bounce back tomorrow

**BagelBoy** · 01-29-20, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

What a nightmare day all around.

Happens to everyone - Keep plugging away - take a couple days if you need it. Maybe there's an adjustment to the model that could be made. I'm not suggesting that it needs to be done.

You have made me a lot of money, and I appreciate your hard work.

Cheers.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-29-20, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1/29

Bucknell/Army o145.5

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:00

Missouri St/Northern Iowa u138

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

7:30

Nicholls St/McNeese St o144

8:00

Incarnate Word/Houston Baptist o168.5

8:30

Indiana/Penn St o142.5 (Note that this contradicts my model)

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Last one:

7:00

Western Carolina +6

1-5 -4.5u
YTD: 104-86 +9.65u
Jan: 52-48 -1.28u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

Lost every way you can lose today. I’ve been through these stretches before, but this one does seem longer than in the past. As always, I’ll continue to re-evaluate. If I take any time off it’ll likely be short, but I’m not planning on it right now.

**coolguy73739** · 01-30-20, 12:11 AM

Totals are tough nuts to crack imo..
Switching to point spread could be a better option.. GL

**BOA12** · 01-30-20, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

Totals are tough nuts to crack imo..
Switching to point spread could be a better option.. GL

Sound advice for this vice

guy.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-30-20, 11:19 AM

I added a new column to the spreadsheet this morning. Column M now gives predicted points per possession for each team. This number was always implied, but breaking it out may be helpful in understanding what the model is predicting.

I'm passing on the early game, but I will be back later with picks for tonight.