Most likely passing tonight. I posted my numbers for tomorrow in the spreadsheet, but lines are not out yet. I’ll add the extra games this evening. GL today!
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Keep it up. It’s workingComment -
I think I’ve just mellowed over the years. 99% of my plays are a single unit. No one play matters more to me than any other. Nights like last night are frustrating where I put time in and go 1-2 while my model goes 35-25 unfiltered.
It’s not on purpose, but I generally end up playing about 10% of games. Over the course of the season that’s gonna be 400-500 plays. Lucky wins and soul crushing bad beats tend to even out, so I try not to dwell on either.Comment -
It takes discipline to play like that. As I’ve aged I’ve gotten better about, “not chasing” after a few bad games. The double up and catch up philosophy doesn’t work.
Thanks for the hard work!!!Comment -
1/18
12:00
Ohio St/Penn St u138
1:00
Florida St/Miami (FL) u143
2:30
Colorado/Arizona u140.5
3:00
Rice/Southern Miss o141
4:00
Florida A&M/South Carolina St o139.5
Howard/Morgan St o150
5:30
Incarnate Word/Stephen F. Austin o138.5
6:00
Louisville/Duke u137.5
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GL today!!Comment -
LOTS of ten point plus differentials today oh my oh my.Comment -
Dog of the Day: Wyoming +210 (.5u)
I’ll have to go back and look, but I think I’m 0-2 on these picks. They are primarily for fun, and I typically play them for less than a full bet. Model has the Cowboys by 4. Big angle for me on this one is the altitude. Fresno is a jump shooting team basically from sea level. Laramie is 7,000 feet. Looking back at the two games Fresno has played at altitude (Utah St and New Mexico), both are losses and they shot 7-34 and 6–21 from three in those games (combined 23.6%). Nearly 40% of Fresno’s points come from three, which is the 13th highest nationally. If their shooting is off, Wyoming should have a chance here. GL!Comment -
I meant, another ot game with an under that was a winner 98% of the game. Just silly at this point.Comment -
They don’t call it “overtime” for nothing.Comment -
Frustrating stuff. Not sorry that I’m too busy today to follow closely.Comment -
Looks like Fresno didn’t have a hard time with the elevation.Comment -
3-5 -2.5u
YTD: 88-66 +15.63u
Jan: 36-28 +4.7u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Really bad day for my model. I'm hoping it's an anomaly, but I am going to keep an eye on things. As bad as 3-5 is, we missed one because of OT and another by 3 where one team was 4-22 from three.Comment -
Thanks for the points guys. I know it's been a disappointing few days. Looking forward to watching the football games tomorrow with the light CBB card. I will wait until the morning to update the model and post any picks for Sunday.Comment -
Keep up the good work. It’s hard to find a model that works long term. Hopefully it’s just a little regression to the mean and then it picks back up again.Comment -
Hard Luck but I'm sure you will bounce back Mate!..
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1/19
1:00
Siena/Niagara o143.5
4:00
Loyola (IL)/Illinois St o130
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Today is a new day
💰💵👍👍Comment -
Looks like we got hookedComment -
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model went 2-1 i think today though... (10 diff model)Comment -
Like when I told my oldest when he played baseball, one day it looks like a volleyball and the next it’s like your trying to hit an aspirin.
It’s all goodComment -
1/20
7:00
St. Francis (NY)/Mt. St. Mary's o129
7:30
NC A&T/Morgan St o141.5
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Do you play all the games you have edge on or you have some limited numbers to play and in that case you ignore other games even though you have definite edge on those?
I believe More games is less Variance so its beneficial in the long run, However more games in the previous sentence doesn't mean 4-5 games..
Variance will dip when games are in the range of 200-300 or may be more, can't give a number at this stage.
So effectively, we can be a victim of variance if we play 4-5 games on the trot.. We can be a victim of variance even if we play 1-2 games per day or just that one Game of the Century, our so called BEST PICK.. So then how many games?
This dilemma has been haunting me for a while.. Would appreciate a valuable feedback from your end.. Thanks in advance.. GLComment -
I personally don’t set a number of plays. I probably sound like a broken record, but with 4-5,000 games in a season, there is no need to force any plays. That said, I just looked back at my two earlier threads, and I’m playing a lot more volume these days than I did a few years back. Part of that is several years of playing and testing.
I approach pick selection from the fundamentals of the game. I have found that trying to get in the mind of the books is a losing proposition for me. That stuff can drive you crazy. To me the most important thing is having a methodology and being consistent. Like a science experiment with controls and variables.
To give an idea, in my last two threads I was 105-95 and 113-92 for the whole season. This year I have already played 156 games. That’s a function of having a methodology that I have enough confidence in. I tend to agree that more plays means reduced variance, but I don’t recommend volume for volume’s sake.
Not sure if that answers your questions, but I hope it helps.Comment -
Thanks for your valuable feedback although my query was about whether you ignore or play all the games you have edge on..
Thanks and appreciate.. GLComment -
1-1 -.1u
YTD: 89-69 +13.33u
Jan: 37-31 +2.4u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
At one point St. Francis was 1-21 from three. Not sure I've seen that level of futility before. They finished 3-27 from deep and that over never had a chance.Comment -
Bad day for the 10 point differentials overall.
Think missed one game, and looks like everything would have evened out damn.Last edited by loveofsports; 01-21-20, 10:13 AM.Comment
