HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

I considered not doing one of these this season (especiall after my awful year in football), but I am doing the work anyway, and I enjoy the discussions.

A little background, I focus mostly on totals. I have a mode that I will start using as a tool in December, and I rely very heavily on pace of play analysis. I enjoy writing up my plays, but I don't always have time for that.

I always welcome questions and discussion, so please feel free to jump in. First picks coming momentarily...

[HeeluvaGuy]

11:00 Manhattan -7 (I got -6 but still like it here)
The Jaspers are sometimes a frustrating team to watch, but they're very experienced this year and are coming off of a nice home win against Harvard. Manhattan is clearly the better team, let's just hope they can make FTs down the stretch to cover the number.

1:30 Georgia Southern/Missouri St o145.5 (I'm in at 146)
I get at least 72 possessions here, but it could go higher. Missouri St has a huge edge on the glass, and GaSo has the edge on the perimeter. If GaSo's shots are falling, this one should go over.

2:00 Prairie View A&M/Eastern Kentucky u149.5
I have this one in the low 140s. The pace could be quick, but the efficiency shouldn't be great. I don't like how much these two foul, but I think the early Vegas start could see these teams sluggish from the get go.

[Capybara]

Good luck this year, Heel! Get 'em!

[Louisvillekid1]

Will be here daily!

[wintheflavor]

11:00 Manhattan -7 (I got -6 but still like it here)
The Jaspers are sometimes a frustrating team to watch, but they're very experienced this year and are coming off of a nice home win against Harvard. Manhattan is clearly the better team, let's just hope they can make FTs down the stretch to cover the number.

1:30 Georgia Southern/Missouri St o145.5 (I'm in at 146)
I get at least 72 possessions here, but it could go higher. Missouri St has a huge edge on the glass, and GaSo has the edge on the perimeter. If GaSo's shots are falling, this one should go over.

2:00 Prairie View A&M/Eastern Kentucky u149.5
I have this one in the low 140s. The pace could be quick, but the efficiency shouldn't be great. I don't like how much these two foul, but I think the early Vegas start could see these teams sluggish from the get go.

Manhattan lookin like the don't want this win shootin like shit from 3...

[HeeluvaGuy]

Manhattan lookin like the don't want this win shootin like shit from 3...

It's almost impossible to predict 3-point shooting. Right now we have compounding deviations in the wrong direction.

[wintheflavor]

It's almost impossible to predict 3-point shooting. Right now we have compounding deviations in the wrong direction.

Can't win if the can't knock the threes down 1-12..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yeah, 50% shooting team goes 3-20 (two makes were in the final minute) from three while the 31% team goes 9-18. Not hard to figure out what went wrong there.

[wintheflavor]

Yeah, 50% shooting team goes 3-20 (two makes were in the final minute) from three while the 31% team goes 9-18. Not hard to figure out what went wrong there.

Damm dude looks like 0-3 day already bad day to tail ur plays

[HeeluvaGuy]

Damm dude looks like 0-3 day already bad day to tail ur plays

1-2. Lost the under with 3 seconds left on a meaningless dunk. Teams shot 49-58 from the FT line. Absurd.

[Louisvillekid1]

Tough breaks

[CappinTerp]

Those 1/2 losses are hard...it's a long season.....you will get them!.............................BOL

[HeeluvaGuy]

5:00 Richmond/UAB o145
I really like the potential for 75+ possessions in this one. Shooters are struggling in his gym today, but neither of these teams relies heavily on the three. There's also he potential for a lot of fouling here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tough breaks

Those 1/2 losses are hard...it's a long season.....you will get them!.............................BOL

You guys know the drill. That stuff happens. More fun to be on he other side of it like in the Georgia Southern game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Unless I missed something, the Richmond game is my last play today. GL!

[wintheflavor]

Unless I missed something, the Richmond game is my last play today. GL!

+10 is the best play here I think win out rite

[BreesIsTheGOAT]

+10 is the best play here I think win out rite

Win outright??? 😂😂😂

[wintheflavor]

Win outright??? 😂😂😂

😂😂😂😂😂

[Louisvillekid1]

+10 is the best play here I think win out rite

nice call

[HeeluvaGuy]

No shit. I'd like to know what you saw there. I was way off on that one.

[HeeluvaGuy]

OK. Not a good day, but we move on. I don't buy points so all of these are tracked at -110 unless otherwise noted. All plays are also one unit unless otherwise noted.

1-3 (-2.3u)

[Louisvillekid1]

Hella is a great capper leave him alone trolls

[DOM_Toretto]

Good luck this season HG glad to see you back

[HeeluvaGuy]

Cheers, fellas. First pick for Tuesday:

9:00 UT Arlington +10.5
I really like the Mavericks' experience here against a Bama team that starts 4 freshmen and is facing its first NCAAT level competition tonight. Arlington won on the road last season at then number 12 St Mary's by 14, so I don't expect them to be intimidated or to fold it up late. Perhaps a sign of the youth on the court, Bama is shooting just 52% fromnthe FT line - a factor that could come in handy trying to stay within the number late.

[HeeluvaGuy]

6:00 Penn St/Texas A&M o139.5
Running short on time, but I think we see 73+ possessions here.

[Louisvillekid1]

Ty for sharing

top notch

[HeeluvaGuy]

Late add:

2:30 Wyoming -1.5

[wintheflavor]

Late add:

2:30 Wyoming -1.5

The lose take Louisiana the been playin good and shooting great at tht gym... win out rite

[2daBank]

The lose take Louisiana the been playin good and shooting great at tht gym... win out rite

The over where it at i believe. Wyo been playing bunch of teams that play at a snails pace all year, this gonna be a track meet! Just hope shots fall.

[2daBank]

The over where it at i believe. Wyo been playing bunch of teams that play at a snails pace all year, this gonna be a track meet! Just hope shots fall.

So much for this, wish I knew what pace was like.? Are they simply missing everything or is it much slower than I anticipated?

[HeeluvaGuy]

So much for this, wish I knew what pace was like.? Are they simply missing everything or is it much slower than I anticipated?

Missing everything and getting a bunch of o boards so limited opportunities. Shooting has been bad all around in this gym.

[Louisvillekid1]

I think Missouri st coach is coaching both teams this game also

sheesh

GET THE BALL INSIDE

do they know what a paint touch is???

i didn't even bet this game but wtf

[2daBank]

Missing everything and getting a bunch of o boards so limited opportunities. Shooting has been bad all around in this gym.

Yea I know the shooting has sucked but I thought it was gonna be so up and down that ultimately wouldn't matter, expected easy putbacks as well. Such a bummer cause this first team wyo has seen that plays fast.

[2daBank]

Now wyo doing what I expected. Total that high it too late I was buried in 1st 10 minutes.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Another late add:

5:00 Georgia Southern/UMKC u149
I have this one at under 70 possessions, which I don't think is enough to get to 150.