Mostly totals

[BOA12]

12/29

2:00
VMI/USC Upstate o137

5:00
Florida Atlantic/South Florida o124.5

5:30
South Dakota St/Omaha o144.5

FAU/S. FLA. OV looks best. BOL HGUY.

[trillz]

VMI/USC at 138.5 juiced 115 would you still play?

[HeeluvaGuy]

VMI/USC at 138.5 juiced 115 would you still play?

The juice bothers me more than the 138.5. Should get into the 140s, but I would pass on the -115. 5Dimes still has 137.5 -110.

[trillz]

The juice bothers me more than the 138.5. Should get into the 140s, but I would pass on the -115. 5Dimes still has 137.5 -110.

Thanks I laid off. I should probably make the move over to 5D anyways.

[trillz]

Only 175 points in that one

[BagelBoy]

Good day today - Honestly a little unlucky we didn't eek out that FAU game. It never looked great but many times we get 15 in the last minute in a game like that. Good stuff, brother. Cheers

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good day today - Honestly a little unlucky we didn't eek out that FAU game. It never looked great but many times we get 15 in the last minute in a game like that. Good stuff, brother. Cheers

Can't complain about 2-1, but yeah that one was winnable.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/29

2:00
VMI/USC Upstate o137

5:00
Florida Atlantic/South Florida o124.5

5:30
South Dakota St/Omaha o144.5

2-1 +.9u
51-31 +17.63u

[doubledime]

Once again, nicely done.

I may be reading your spread sheet incorrectly, but the last two days it appears that any under that has a 10 point difference or greater, has a 6-2 record, and would be 7-1 if not for the overtime of the Louisville/Kentucky game.

Two questions:

1. Am I reading your spread sheet correctly?
2. Albeit I only went back two days, but is there a reason you don't play more unders?


Thanks,

DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

Running behind today. I’ll get the model updated and any plays posted as soon as I can. Might not be ready for the early games.

DD - I’ll give you a better answer in a bit, but you are reading it correctly. Unders have been performing really well since I made a slight adjustment a little over a week ago.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/30

2:00
Dartmouth/New Hampshire o128.5

6:30
Xavier +6

7:00
Northern Kentucky -5.5
UNC Wilmington/Drexel o140
Youngstown St/UIC o139

That's it through the 7:00 games. I'll update later if I have anything after that.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Once again, nicely done.

I may be reading your spread sheet incorrectly, but the last two days it appears that any under that has a 10 point difference or greater, has a 6-2 record, and would be 7-1 if not for the overtime of the Louisville/Kentucky game.

Two questions:

1. Am I reading your spread sheet correctly?
2. Albeit I only went back two days, but is there a reason you don't play more unders?


Thanks,

DD

A few reasons I don’t play as many unders:

1) I think I’m better at identifying factors that lead to overs. Some of that may be a result of the style of basketball I’m accustomed to watching. I much prefer uptempo, high scoring games over defensive slugfests. So I definitely have a bias towards overs.

2) About 10 days ago I discovered a bias in my model that was overestimating possessions and artificially inflating scores. The adjustment resulted in about a 4 point decrease in predicted totals. Since I’m doing this whole model in real time without the benefit of any testing, I’ve been waiting a bit to see what the results look like before trusting them too much.

3) I have zero data to back this up, but from years of watching basketball, I’ve found that the pre-conference games tend to be a little looser without the same intensity as conference play. That lack of intensity often means a lack of defense.

I suspect I’ll start playing more unders in coming weeks as the model results take shape and conference play gets going in earnest.

[doubledime]

A few reasons I don’t play as many unders:

1) I think I’m better at identifying factors that lead to overs. Some of that may be a result of the style of basketball I’m accustomed to watching. I much prefer uptempo, high scoring games over defensive slugfests. So I definitely have a bias towards overs.

2) About 10 days ago I discovered a bias in my model that was overestimating possessions and artificially inflating scores. The adjustment resulted in about a 4 point decrease in predicted totals. Since I’m doing this whole model in real time without the benefit of any testing, I’ve been waiting a bit to see what the results look like before trusting them too much.

3) I have zero data to back this up, but from years of watching basketball, I’ve found that the pre-conference games tend to be a little looser without the same intensity as conference play. That lack of intensity often means a lack of defense.

I suspect I’ll start playing more unders in coming weeks as the model results take shape and conference play gets going in earnest.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00
Harvard/San Francisco u150.5

[loveofsports]

damn no one scoring in darmouth game

[HeeluvaGuy]

damn no one scoring in darmouth game

Yeah. That first half was brutal. Almost got there anyway. On to the next I guess.

[HeeluvaGuy]

damn no one scoring in darmouth game

Yeah. That first half was brutal. Almost got there anyway. On to the next I guess.

[Mackballs]

Some hideous beats today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/30

2:00
Dartmouth/New Hampshire o128.5

6:30
Xavier +6

7:00
Northern Kentucky -5.5
UNC Wilmington/Drexel o140
Youngstown St/UIC o139

9:00
Harvard/San Francisco u150.5

0-5-1 -5.5u
51-36 +12.13u

Awful day all around.

[trillz]

That’s definitely some variance kicking our ass. Early game terrible first half, Xavier covered if u got 6.5, UNCW was right there for the total and late game going overtime. Could have easily been 4-2 or 5-1 Get em tomorrow HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

That’s definitely some variance kicking our ass. Early game terrible first half, Xavier covered if u got 6.5, UNCW was right there for the total and late game going overtime. Could have easily been 4-2 or 5-1 Get em tomorrow HG

It was a weird day all around. Road teams covered in 70% of games yesterday, dogs covered 65%, and road dogs covered 72%.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/31

4:00
Riverside +4.5

5:00

Evansville/Missouri St o133

5:30

Georgetown/Providence u151.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/31

4:00
Riverside +4.5

5:00

Evansville/Missouri St o133

5:30

Georgetown/Providence u151.5

1-2 -1.2u
52-38 +10.93u

Not how I wanted to end the month, but unfortunately these things happen. Happy and Safe New Year to all!

[WhiteBison]

Thank you for posting and great run you have going

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/1

3:00
South Dakota/Ft Wayne o145

9:00
Marquette/Creighton u152

[HeeluvaGuy]

In case anyone doubted how weird the last couple of days have been, 1-9 Florida A&M just won in Ames by 2 as a +25.5/+2000 dog.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Quick update on my model and the adjustment I made on 12/20:

Since the update (331 games), totals are hitting 54.4%, with almost no difference between overs and unders on a percentage basis. Prior to the adjustment (534 games), totals were hitting 53.6% with overs hitting 54.7% and unders hitting 50%. So the adjustment seems to be on the right track.

The percentage of games where the model favors the under is also up from ~24% to ~38%.

[loveofsports]

May have to fade for rest of year these picks are losing every single day.

[trillz]

May have to fade for rest of year these picks are losing every single day.

No need to announce it pal

[loveofsports]

But I can and I did bud.

[trillz]

But I can and I did bud.

You’re gonna fade a thread hitting about 57% let me know how that works out for you

[loveofsports]

alright

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/1

3:00
South Dakota/Ft Wayne o145

9:00
Marquette/Creighton u152

0-2 -2.2u
52-40 +8.73u
Rough few days for sure

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/2

Noon
UTEP/FIU u147

Still working through the later games

[trillz]

Good start HG