Mostly totals

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/18

1:30 Incarnate Word/Central Arkansas o147.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00

Vanderbilt/Loyola (IL) o135.5
Wagner/La Salle o143

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00
Louisiana/Arkansas St o146

[HeeluvaGuy]

That’s probably it for me tonight. There are probably other plays out there, but I’m not sure I’ll have the time to devote to it the rest of the day.

BOL on all of your plays!

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/18

1:30 Incarnate Word/Central Arkansas o147.5

7:00

Vanderbilt/Loyola (IL) o135.5
Wagner/La Salle o143

8:00
Louisiana/Arkansas St o146

2-1-1 +.9u
YTD: 31-20 +9.05u

Got lucky with the OT in the early game, but the late game was a bummer. Needed 4 to push and 5 to win in the last 1:54. From there, they went 0-6 from the field and 4-8 from the line.

[JayDr3am]

smashing the overs. nice. i keep seeing them cash but im hesitant to jump on them

[BOA12]

2-1-1 +.9u
YTD: 31-20 +9.05u

Got lucky with the OT in the early game, but the late game was a bummer. Needed 4 to push and 5 to win in the last 1:54. From there, they went 0-6 from the field and 4-8 from the line.

Tail daily. You don't care who wins or loses or covers. I'm jealous. 31-20 +9.05u Free throws needed. BOL HGuy.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tail daily. You don't care who wins or loses or covers. I'm jealous. 31-20 +9.05u Free throws needed. BOL HGuy.

Yeah, I don't play a lot of sides these days. And I definitely play more overs than unders, so free throws are always important. Glad you like what I do. Helps to get off to a good start.

Plays may be limited a bit over the next few days. I have noticed that my model is overestimating possessions. I want to take some time to see if I need to make an adjustment, and there are only so many hours in the day. That said, I will likely have a few plays later today.

[BOA12]

Yeah, I don't play a lot of sides these days. And I definitely play more overs than unders, so free throws are always important. Glad you like what I do. Helps to get off to a good start.

Plays may be limited a bit over the next few days. I have noticed that my model is overestimating possessions. I want to take some time to see if I need to make an adjustment, and there are only so many hours in the day. That said, I will likely have a few plays later today.

Possessions is 9/10th of your handicapping.Most important meal of the day is food for thought.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Possessions is 9/10th of your handicapping.Most important meal of the day is food for thought.

“Tempo is everything; perfection unattainable.” - Roy McAvoy

[BOA12]

“Tempo is everything; perfection unattainable.” - Roy McAvoy

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/19

7:00

UT Arlington/Georgia St o141

10:00

Portland St/Loyola Marymount o142.5

That’s it for now. Might have an add or two if the lines move the right way.

[HeeluvaGuy]

smashing the overs. nice. i keep seeing them cash but im hesitant to jump on them

Thanks Jay. I’m always hesitant to tail anyone, so I totally get it. That’s why I try to provide some background on how I approach things. Even if folks aren’t inclined to tail, I hope I can offer some thoughts that might help in making picks.

Nice work on your thread. BOL this season and thanks for stopping by.

[JayDr3am]

thanks and GL tonight on your picks

[BetThenSweat]

12/19

7:00

UT Arlington/Georgia St o141

10:00

Portland St/Loyola Marymount o142.5

That’s it for now. Might have an add or two if the lines move the right way.

ABSOLUTELY LOVE the Portland State/Loyola Marymount over! Good luck

[doubledime]

Good luck tonight

[HeeluvaGuy]

I’m passing on this because I waited too long on the line, but I thought these historical numbers were pretty interesting for the NIU/Chicago St game: https://www.masseyratings.com/rivals...&lg=41458&d0=0

Looks like NIU regularly uses this game to take out some aggressions. In the last two meetings NIU is 25-50 from three.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good luck tonight

Thanks. You as well.

[BagelBoy]

Have been tailing your plays since the 0-3 day. Good work, man - keep it up. Cheers

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/19

7:00

UT Arlington/Georgia St o141

10:00

Portland St/Loyola Marymount o142.5

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 32-21 +8.95u
Brutal loss in the late game. After an 80-point first half they scored just 62 in the second to lose by the hook.

[HockeyOtt1978]

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 32-21 +8.95u
Brutal loss in the late game. After an 80-point first half they scored just 62 in the second to lose by the hook.

Tough loss indeed, but you made the right pick regardless of the final outcome.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Have been tailing your plays since the 0-3 day. Good work, man - keep it up. Cheers

Glad it’s working out for us. Thanks for posting.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Quick little update on my model ...

In games where my predicted total is more than 10 points off of the line, the model is 123-90 (57.1%). That’s over 16 days. Only 3 of those days resulted in a net loss.

I’m not suggesting that those plays should be blindly followed, but the results are worth noting when deciding on what to play.

Back in a bit with some plays for today. Looking like more sides than totals FWIW.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/20

2:30

Drexel +108

5:00

Towson +7

7:00

James Madison/Fordham o138
Bowling Green/Norfolk St o135.5

8:00

UIC +5

[BagelBoy]

Welp for every bad beat I guess there's a lucky win, or 2. Crazy finishes on both overs. Good stuff man.

Cheers

[JonnyDimes]

Great end of regulation for norfolk!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Welp for every bad beat I guess there's a lucky win, or 2. Crazy finishes on both overs. Good stuff man.

Cheers

Helps make up for last night. Neither of those totals deserved to win, but I won't complain.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/20

2:30

Drexel +108

5:00

Towson +7

7:00

James Madison/Fordham o138
Bowling Green/Norfolk St o135.5

8:00

UIC +5

4-1 +2.98u
YTD: 36-22 +11.93u
Probably should have been 2-3 tonight, but we had more than a little luck with the totals.

[gressyville]

Nice work

[doubledime]

4-1 +2.98u
YTD: 36-22 +11.93u
Probably should have been 2-3 tonight, but we had more than a little luck with the totals.

Well done

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well done

Thank you sir. Helps to get lucky from time to time.

[docgerry1]

After you use your model to screen for eligible selections...Have you found any correlation between point spread of game and total?

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/21

12:00

NC A&T/Wake Forest o137

1:00
Missouri +140

Texas St/Georgia St o138

Montana/Omaha o140

Idaho/South Dakota St o139.5


Notes: (1) I'm getting through the card as quickly as I can. Will post any plays as soon as they are in. (2) I tweaked my model yesterday to account for the overestimation of possessions. The net result is roughly a 4 point drop in all predicted totals. Sides were only slightly affected.

[docgerry1]

More specifically are large lined games more likely to go over/ under in your qualifiers

[HeeluvaGuy]

More specifically are large lined games more likely to go over/ under in your qualifiers

The short answer is that it appears so. This is what I posted yesterday on the subject. Yesterday the >10 point difference totals went 6-3. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results and all that...

Quick little update on my model ...

In games where my predicted total is more than 10 points off of the line, the model is 123-90 (57.1%). That’s over 16 days. Only 3 of those days resulted in a net loss.

I’m not suggesting that those plays should be blindly followed, but the results are worth noting when deciding on what to play.

Back in a bit with some plays for today. Looking like more sides than totals FWIW.