Mostly totals

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00

UNC Asheville/Presbyterian o145.5
Minnesota/Purdue u133.5

7:30

Texas St/Little Rock o123.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00
Lamar/New Orleans o141

9:00
SEMO/Austin Peay o143

[Mackballs]

Damn, unreal bad luck with these unders lately going to over time.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Damn, unreal bad luck with these unders lately going to over time.

Something like 5% of college basketball games go to OT. Roughly 110% of my unders go to OT.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/2

Noon
UTEP/FIU u147

7:00

UNC Asheville/Presbyterian o145.5
Minnesota/Purdue u133.5

7:30

Texas St/Little Rock o123.5

8:00
Lamar/New Orleans o141

9:00
SEMO/Austin Peay o143

3-2-1 +.8u
55-42 +9.53u
Literally 5 points from a perfect day.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/3

7:00
Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

[BOA12]

1/3

7:00
Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

Love it and WISCONSIN/OHIO ST Over 124.5 too. BOL HGUY

[HeeluvaGuy]

As we approach 1,000 games since my model has gone live (linked in the first post on this thread), I (with a little help) have looked back to see how certain plays have done.

Overall (sides and totals), the model is 988-926 (51.6%). But totals are 519-446 (53.8%). This isn’t surprising because my intent in designing this model was to predict totals, not so much sides.

Using a 10+ point differential, totals are 178-128 (58.2%). That’s a pretty significant advantage.

Going forward I don’t have immediate plans to change what I’m doing, but I will likely focus more on the games that fit this filter, particularly on days with 100+ games.

Hope that helps some of you as you do your own handicapping. I’ll continue these kinds of updates as time permits and circumstances warrant.

[doubledime]

As we approach 1,000 games since my model has gone live (linked in the first post on this thread), I (with a little help) have looked back to see how certain plays have done.

Overall (sides and totals), the model is 988-926 (51.6%). But totals are 519-446 (53.8%). This isn’t surprising because my intent in designing this model was to predict totals, not so much sides.

Using a 10+ point differential, totals are 178-128 (58.2%). That’s a pretty significant advantage.

Going forward I don’t have immediate plans to change what I’m doing, but I will likely focus more on the games that fit this filter, particularly on days with 100+ games.

Hope that helps some of you as you do your own handicapping. I’ll continue these kinds of updates as time permits and circumstances warrant.

Interesting..........

Is what I highlighted, apply to unders and overs, or just overs?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Interesting..........

Is what I highlighted, apply to unders and overs, or just overs?

Overs and unders. If I can find some time I’ll see if I can break it down further. But that probably won’t be for a few days.

[Joe Sharp]

Nice work. Interested to see how the rest of the season works out. Good Luck tonight!

[Conqueror]

1/3

7:00
Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/3

7:00
Manhattan/Canisius o128.5

1-0 +1u
56-42 +10.53u

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice work. Interested to see how the rest of the season works out. Good Luck tonight!

Thanks. I’m curious to see how this does too. Theoretically it should hold up during conference play, but like I’ve said before, we’re doing this in real time, so we’ll need to keep a close eye on any bumps in the road.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/4

Noon
Creighton/Butler u134.5

2:00
Florida State/Louisville u133.5
Iowa/Penn St u154

3:00
Abilene Christian/Lamar o132.5

[Hman]

GL today

[loveofsports]

Question if you don’t mind helluvaguy,

In seems like looking at your spreadsheet and following all games with a total differential of plus or minus ten would yield the best results, is this what you are saying?

Also, some games on your spread sheet seem to have a differential of greater than 10 but aren’t listed on this thread what do you base that on?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Question if you don’t mind helluvaguy,

In seems like looking at your spreadsheet and following all games with a total differential of plus or minus ten would yield the best results, is this what you are saying?

Also, some games on your spread sheet seem to have a differential of greater than 10 but aren’t listed on this thread what do you base that on?

1) Yes, the totals with the 10+ differentials have been outperforming games with lower differentials. That's what my post a few posts above is about.

2) The short answer is (a) I look at other things besides just the spreadsheet, and (b) I haven't finished getting through today's games. I expect to post more as soon as I can get through the card. The longer answer is a bit more complicated and detailed, but I've covered a lot of it in threads from past seasons. Basically, I start with the spreadsheet and then look at matchups to see if I agree or disagree with the numbers the model spits out.

[coach 40/40]

So you are putting your opinion into your system ?

[loveofsports]

1) Yes, the totals with the 10+ differentials have been outperforming games with lower differentials. That's what my post a few posts above is about.

2) The short answer is (a) I look at other things besides just the spreadsheet, and (b) I haven't finished getting through today's games. I expect to post more as soon as I can get through the card. The longer answer is a bit more complicated and detailed, but I've covered a lot of it in threads from past seasons. Basically, I start with the spreadsheet and then look at matchups to see if I agree or disagree with the numbers the model spits out.

Thank you.

[HeeluvaGuy]

So you are putting your opinion into your system ?

To some extent, yes. I use the model as a tool in handicapping. At the same time, I’m keeping an eye out for ways the model could be used to just identify plays without any additional work. Unfortunately, I have yet to find a model that is that reliable.

[loveofsports]

when you say the games are 58% plus with differential of 10 pts or more are you meaning the model itself or after your opinon on the model?

Thanks !

[coach 40/40]

Good luck your opinion is well noted.

[HeeluvaGuy]

when you say the games are 58% plus with differential of 10 pts or more are you meaning the model itself or after your opinon on the model?

Thanks !

That’s just the model with no input from me other than as the creator. But today would be 30 plays or so. That’s just too many for me to commit to with an untested model.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Through the 3:00 games:

3:00Tennessee Tech/Morehead St o132.5
Youngstown St/Cleveland St o136

[HeeluvaGuy]

Through the 6:00 games:

4:00

West Virginia/Kansas u141.5

6:00
Charleston Southern/Hampton o141
Boise St/Nevada u152

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like this is it for the day. Missed the Bama under earlier.

6:00

Alabama/Florida u150

6:30

Alcorn St/Prairie View o139

7:00

Towson/UNC Wilmington o131.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/4

Noon
Creighton/Butler u134.5

2:00
Florida State/Louisville u133.5
Iowa/Penn St u154

3:00
Abilene Christian/Lamar o132.5

Through the 3:00 games:

3:00Tennessee Tech/Morehead St o132.5
Youngstown St/Cleveland St o136

Through the 6:00 games:

4:00

West Virginia/Kansas u141.5

6:00
Charleston Southern/Hampton o141
Boise St/Nevada u152

Looks like this is it for the day. Missed the Bama under earlier.

6:00

Alabama/Florida u150

6:30

Alcorn St/Prairie View o139

7:00

Towson/UNC Wilmington o131.5

8-4 +3.6u
64-46 +14.13u
Probably won't have tomorrow's games up until the morning. Lots to update after nearly 70% of teams played today.

[Mackballs]

Good day heel

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/5

1:00

Manhattan/Niagara 0129

1:30

Michigan/Michigan St u143

2:00

Marist/St Peter's o118.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yesterday, the totals with a differential of 10 or greater on my model went 18-11. Please keep in mind that those results are based on the closing lines, so if anyone is inclined to play those games, it's best to wait until right before tip to lock it in. GL!

[Fabiodog]

Nice work

[Mackballs]

Wow if this Manhattan over loses....no points in three minutes down the stretch.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/5

1:00

Manhattan/Niagara 0129

1:30

Michigan/Michigan St u143

2:00

Marist/St Peter's o118.5

0-2-1 -2.2u
64-48 +11.93u
Pretty bad today

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/6

7:30

South Carolina St/Morgan St o145

8:30

Alcorn St/Texas Southern o146


Might have others tomorrow, but went ahead and took these early.