John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[WWSports]

Can someone tell me what post the 7/5 system that has been discussed was in. I'd like to read it or would appreciate if someone could explain it without cluttering up the fine work of Wallco and the Limit? Thanks for any help.

[Wallco99]

wallco,

t-wolves have lost four straight, of which the last three have been ads and straight up. can you confirm if you are playing this one too? thanks.

Yes, it is a play. I have 2/16/12 as the date for their next game, just saw that it was tonight. Thank you for catching that. I will repost the update shortly.

[Nino7]

on3,i agree that u can discuss some system plays when u watch closely to what you are doing and actually be right.but as long as u cant handicap each game properly and make a profit on long run,all u can do is following a system that work statistically whatever the reason that make it work is...sometimes the system play make no sense but the overall season is winning so thats all u gotta know.
maybe losing against the spread +3,5 is linked 80% of the time with a deciding factor that will make u win the serie and yeah 20 % of the time it makes no sense and you ll still gamble on it.but as long as u dunno this factor u can only sourround it statistically

[Wallco99]

Question for Wallco, limit, and everyone else that has put in the effort of a backtest: what is the practical significance of a team that covers a spread +3 and a team that covers the spread +4? the +3 results in a NO PLAY on (B) and (C) but a cover of spread +4 triggers a (B) and (C) bet.

take Sacto and ATL last night:

Sacto covered the spread +3, but also covered the original spread, which would lead me to believe that Sacto is in a stronger position than previously held and therefore lines would be tapered down and put the bettor in a weakened position (sharper line, less advantage). linesmakers say...Sacto had a 12 point powerrank (PR) lower than Chicago, but it really should be a 9 or 10 point PR difference, so then their next game Sacto's PR is upgraded and the line is shifted by 1 or 2 and therefore sharper.

ATL on the other hand covered the spread +3 by a half point, but didn't cover the original spread. they covered the +3 because jeff teague made a free throw with 12 seconds left. does that jeff teague freethrow really affect the linesmaker's PR and therefore puts the bettor at a disadvantage in games (B) and (C) in the same way Sacto covering does? i would think it does NOT, and still leaves the bettor in a position to profit from a (B) and (C) bet. basically...what is the PRACTICAL significance of only covering a spread by +3 and covering a spread +4, without covering the original line? is there any practical significance of 1 point on a linesmaker's PR?

hopefully this makes sense. let me know if you have noticed anything in the backtests. thank you.

Because we are playing the B and C bets based on the system rules laid out by JM, saying a bet would never have gone to B if it covered the spread +3, and after further testing, it appears that spread +3.5 netted even more profit. It has nothing to do with what we think the linesmakers will do, just how the system we are betting performed on the A bet, to decide whether or not there is a B or C bet.

[Nino7]

....

[Nino7]

WW 7/5 is like: rather than betting to win 1 unit on A B or C,ull bet to win 7 on B and 5 unit on C @-110 whenever a team lost against the spread +3,5 on A
hope this help

[Wallco99]

Can someone tell me what post the 7/5 system that has been discussed was in. I'd like to read it or would appreciate if someone could explain it without cluttering up the fine work of Wallco and the Limit? Thanks for any help.

If an official JM bet makes it to B, that means the A bet +3.5 points didn't cover, then play your B bet ATS for 7 units. If that wins, series over. If it loses, then play 12.7 units on C bet ATS, if it loses series over, if it wins, then yay for us. Regardless of some of the narrow minds in here, it is the most profitable way to play JM (any B&C only method is), but 7/5 nets the most profit, for only slightly more risk than a traditional JM loss costs.

[WWSports]

WW 7/5 is like: rather than betting to win 1 unit on A B or C,ull bet to win 7 on B and 5 unit on C @-110 whenever a team lost against the spread +3,5 on A hope this help

If an official JM bet makes it to B, that means the A bet +3.5 points didn't cover, then play your B bet ATS for 7 units. If that wins, series over. If it loses, then play 12.7 units on C bet ATS, if it loses series over, if it wins, then yay for us. Regardless of some of the narrow minds in here, it is the most profitable way to play JM (any B&C only method is), but 7/5 nets the most profit, for only slightly more risk than a traditional JM loss costs.

Thank you both for your time and quick response.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 34-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -3.29 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-4.51 units)

(2/14/12):
#38 Indiana (+2½) (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 25-13
(B) 4-8
(C) 3-4
(D) 2-2

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (2/15/12):
#36 Memphis @ New Jersey (+3) (C) (7:35 pm EST)
#38 Indiana (M/L) @ Cleveland (B) (7:35 pm EST)
#39 Charlotte @ Minnesota (M/L) (A) (8:05 pm EST)

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[ok15533]

I will check pg 55 i hope good news is there

[MistaKev]

San Antonio Bet B today is also a play right?

[on3]

Because we are playing the B and C bets based on the system rules laid out by JM, saying a bet would never have gone to B if it covered the spread +3, and after further testing, it appears that spread +3.5 netted even more profit. It has nothing to do with what we think the linesmakers will do, just how the system we are betting performed on the A bet, to decide whether or not there is a B or C bet.

Right, the difference of 1 point has statistical significance, but not necessarily practical. Just wondering if there is any value in tracking plays that cover a +3 by half or one point and sniff out some value.

Thanks for the discussion.

[alexknyc]

Minnesota -600? Ouch!

[J.M. Disciple]

MLB 1st inning.

DOG = best odds
Favorite = worse odds.

Divide the MLB day into 3 sections

Each section choose the game closest to -100.

You can labby both sides of that game or one side of that game which ever one you like.

Yes hits about 48% and no hits about 52%, so it doesn't really matter which side you labby. I would prefer labbying only the Yes side cause overall, the Yes has the best odds.

I hope that clears up the system.

Sorry do not have a link for the system.

--JMD

PS
What i said before about biggest dog and smallest favorite is slightly off. Its probably smallest dog and smallest favorite.

[COBRA31]

Hey Wallco...

I have a question come up. Since Hawks covered if you bought 3 pts. Do you close out the series and count as a loss if you are not buying points...or are you playing them tonight as an unofficial B ?

I think you play them as unofficial B...but had a brain fart here.

Thanks!

[J.M. Disciple]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-pro...tegy-p225.html

Did a quick search and here is the link to Daba's 1st inning MLB. As you can see on the last page the "DOG" won over +470 units on the season. I guess the favorite crashed probably due to the labby being based on -110 odds and not higher. When the odds are -190 on some games it is bound to get a heavy line sooner or later. I hope this link helps all.

Points Please

[J.M. Disciple]

Hey Wallco...

I have a question come up. Since Hawks covered if you bought 3 pts. Do you close out the series and count as a loss if you are not buying points...or are you playing them tonight as an unofficial B ?

I think you play them as unofficial B...but had a brain fart here.

Thanks!

becomes unofficial. if you are doing a standard abc chase using 1-3-5. If you are using a 7/5 method, then they are not a play.

[COBRA31]

Hey Wallco...

I have a question come up. Since Hawks covered if you bought 3 pts. Do you close out the series and count as a loss if you are not buying points...or are you playing them tonight as an unofficial B ?

I think you play them as unofficial B...but had a brain fart here.

Thanks!

Damn...never mind. You are on 7/5 now so you would just forget the series. I'm still stuck on the 1,3,5. So if you were doing 1,3,5....it would be an unofficial B play ?

I have not made the switch yet.

[J.M. Disciple]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-pro...tegy-p225.html

Did a quick search and here is the link to Daba's 1st inning MLB. As you can see on the last page the "DOG" won over +470 units on the season. I guess the favorite crashed probably due to the labby being based on -110 odds and not higher. When the odds are -190 on some games it is bound to get a heavy line sooner or later. I hope this link helps all.

Points Please

The favorites were up over 142 units at one point in the season before they crashed in burn, which i can not utilize enough BANKROLL MANAGEMENT will be a very important concept for this system!

[COBRA31]

becomes unofficial. if you are doing a standard abc chase using 1-3-5. If you are using a 7/5 method, then they are not a play.

Thanks JMD....figured that out late. So mant different strategies I confused myself.

I'm straight now.

[Wallco99]

San Antonio Bet B today is also a play right?

No, it never was an (A) bet. Please don't confuse people.

[Wallco99]

Hey Wallco...

I have a question come up. Since Hawks covered if you bought 3 pts. Do you close out the series and count as a loss if you are not buying points...or are you playing them tonight as an unofficial B ?

I think you play them as unofficial B...but had a brain fart here.

Thanks!

If you are playing 1-3-5, or Stevex way, then you would continue. Otherwise, there is no play on B for the 7/5, series is over. Don't forget, the A bets are not what stevex and 1gamer make them out to be, they are actually losing bets over all.

[thelimit0310]

Thank you both for your time and quick response.

WWSports, if you still have any questions on 7/5 please refer to page 55, its the second or third post down from the top. There's a section in the post labeled "To Summarize", this is where the rules and way to play are laid out. Thanks for your interest!

[Wallco99]

WWSports, if you still have any questions on 7/5 please refer to page 55, its the second or third post down from the top. There's a section in the post labeled "To Summarize", this is where the rules and way to play are laid out. Thanks for your interest!

Page #'s don't do me any good, what post # are you referring to? Thanks.

[COBRA31]

If you are playing 1-3-5, or Stevex way, then you would continue. Otherwise, there is no play on B for the 7/5, series is over. Don't forget, the A bets are not what stevex and 1gamer make them out to be, they are actually losing bets over all.

Got it...thanks. I agree with the 7/5 strategy..and switching over starting with the A bets tonight...we'll wait to see if they cover with the 3.5 pts. before betting as a B.

Let's hope for some loses...not betting every series we won't know what to do with ourselves!

[dlunc3]

omg 1gamer and Stevex, seriously, if you want to have a dick measuring contest that bad then go to a gay bar or something.
Can't believe you guys keep cluttering the thread with all this ridiculous bullshit.

guys just ignore 1gamer, he is really thick and does not listen to reason, nothing we say will change that. If he can not work out that what he is doing is retarded when literally EVERY person in the entire thread is telling him, then nothing anyone says to him will ever make a difference. He will work it out (or not) when he crashes and burns with ridiculous gambling practices.

Stevex I thought you had been around long enough to know that a 5 game win streak means less than nothing. 40% cappers hit 5 game win streaks, 60% cappers hit 5 game Lose streaks all the time. Man you must have bombed out in math at high school something savage. How did your labby line look after the 2-19 A bet streak last year? And your A bets went real well in the MLB season last year, you blew your entire tracked balance then stopped posting coz you were playing at such stupidly high levels of risk (from A). And you gloat about 5 A wins !?!? 5 units, please.. Come back in 1 year's time with the overall A bet record over the next 12 months and let us know what how you went. If they made you more profit than skipping them and putting the extra units into B and C then I will happily bow down and kiss your ring

I thought I was the only one who remembered that

[Wallco99]

Got it...thanks. I agree with the 7/5 strategy..and switching over starting with the A bets tonight...we'll wait to see if they cover with the 3.5 pts. before betting as a B.

Let's hope for some loses...not betting every series we won't know what to do with ourselves!

JM is not the only system, there are several to keep us occupied.

[Wallco99]

Got it...thanks. I agree with the 7/5 strategy..and switching over starting with the A bets tonight...we'll wait to see if they cover with the 3.5 pts. before betting as a B.

Let's hope for some loses...not betting every series we won't know what to do with ourselves!

I'll tell you what to do with yourself, get to the gym and work out! You are going to need to be stronger to carry all the extra money you will be making from skipping the A bets, and playing B&C for more.

[WWSports]

WWSports, if you still have any questions on 7/5 please refer to page 55, its the second or third post down from the top. There's a section in the post labeled "To Summarize", this is where the rules and way to play are laid out. Thanks for your interest!

Thanks Limit. I checked pg. 55 out, out of curiosity when someone had told OK15533 to go there.

[COYLO]

JM is not the only system, there are several to keep us occupied.

i follow JM - wallco and sbp nba. what you tailing??

if i can hit 2-3 wins a week for a couple of month's between those 3 systems i'll be a happy man. any other input on other systems would be nice.

[thelimit0310]

page #'s don't do me any good, what post # are you referring to? Thanks.

#1894

[stevex]

Lets go A Bets!!!

[WWSports]

Limit and Wallco, I have a thread in NBA and NHL. I'd appreciate if you could take a look and give me any suggests to make a better thread. Just PM me. Thanks.

[Stealinhome]

Lets hope for some JM A bets to lose by big today!!

[1gamer]

Let's go (A) bets parlayed on the (B) bet