John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by 1gamer

You can alway find ways to minimize risk, but you will never completely get rid of it. This goes for any moving market.

Yes, but putting your money on the team you "think" will win, rather than the team that should follow the trend is not how you minimize risk. I don't care what your inflated +units total is at the moment (+38 or whatever you say it is), and that 19 unit profit bet that you placed on that one team (risking 29 more), even though you won, was not only half of these units you are up, but also foolish.

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

I respectfully disagree 1gamer. An 8-10 year sample of a trend shows all of its fluctuations, ups and downs, and means that the average of the sample will stay the same going forward until the game itself changes. This is the reason I can say the 7/5 will on average produce 80 units. This is why Wilba can say the A bets don't win enough to justify betting them. From your stances on both these issues this seems to be something you don't fully understand, but that's okay. System players are not gamblers because they are only capitalizing on a long term trend, not handicapping.

Originally posted by alexknyc

Which system is minimizing risk and which is gambling?

I'm trying to hybrid both with the outcome TBD. There's no question about it. 7/5 minimizes risk from a mathmatical stand point. My system has handicapping elements witten all over it.

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Yes, but putting your money on the team you "think" will win, rather than the team that should follow the trend is not how you minimize risk. I don't care what your inflated +units total is at the moment (+38 or whatever you say it is), and that 19 unit profit bet that you placed on that one team (risking 29 more), even though you won, was not only half of these units you are up, but also foolish.

Inflated units? WOW! Good thing my record is documented. I changed my parlay units because I forgot I hit a 3 team.

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by 1gamer

Inflated units? WOW! Good thing my record is documented. I changed my parlay units because I forgot I hit a 3 team.

Inflated because of 19 units profit on 1 play, which yes, is documented.

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 08:39 PM

And let's not turn this into a hugh discussion that goes nowhere. Everyone have a wonderful Valentine Evening and BOL to everyone.

**SportsTerminator** · 02-14-12, 08:39 PM

Wow Indiana was in the perfect situation. Apparently their not as good as we all thought. Expect them to get bounced out of the first round in the playoffs...

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Inflated because of 19 units profit on 1 play, which yes, is documented.

Then it was an unintentional mistake, not inflating. I will correct it tomorrow. What post again? I had a to win 19 unit bet down. You even commented how "nuts" it was. Didn't you?

**Sandwich** · 02-14-12, 08:52 PM

Limit, I really want to discuss an MLB system with you at some point. I unfortunately don't have enough posts to send out a PM yet; but I want to pick your brain and collaborate.

Also, I followed the 1st Inning Run system on Covers and made a good amount of money. The way he designed it basically was to take the biggest Dog (+) money bet for different game time periods. i.e. 7pm, 9pm, ect. I'm hoping the results will reflect the same this year as last.

BOL!

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 09:34 PM

The 19 unit play stands. That was a legitimate, documented play. I think it might be easier to just unauthorize me to post my plays in your thread Wallco. Trust me, I won't go screaming into the night. I may even start my own thread. Please advise.

**alexknyc** · 02-14-12, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by 1gamer

The 19 unit play stands. That was a legitimate, documented play. I think it might be easier to just unauthorize me to post my plays in your thread Wallco. Trust me, I won't go screaming into the night. I may even start my own thread. Please advise

The 19-unit play was idiotic. There was no rhyme or reason for it. You know what they call that?

GAMBLING.

Enjoy your run but don't whine WHEN (not if) it ends.

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by alexknyc

The 19-unit play was idiotic. There was no rhyme or reason for it. You know what they call that? GAMBLING. Enjoy your run but don't whine WHEN (not if) it ends.

Don't hate the player hate the game baby! No whining here. I think out of respect for this thread, I will cease and desist from posting my successful plays. No hard feelings either way guys.

Let's go Atlanta/SAC

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by 1gamer

The 19 unit play stands. That was a legitimate, documented play. I think it might be easier to just unauthorize me to post my plays in your thread Wallco. Trust me, I won't go screaming into the night. I may even start my own thread. Please advise.

I didn't say it wasn't legitimate, just that it wasn't any kind of "system" play. It was a gambler throwing a ridiculous amount of money on one game and hoping for the best, based on that person's belief that he "thought" that team would win. The reason I say inflated is because if anyone would have happened to be following you in this "system", they wouldn't be up 38 units, as you claim, because no one would make a 19 unit wager on a team for no apparent reason. It wasn't like you were trying to recover lost units from previous bets, you were just trying to make a quick 19 units. No money mangement system is designed this way, which is why I say, no one would have made that bet, so no one would have been up 38 units (1/2 of which is from this 1 bet). Maybe the other 19 units they may have, but you are not playing to win any set amounts. Whatever mood you are in is what you bet, 2 units, 4 units, 5 units, no logic whatsoever to your bet amounts or even the teams that you are playing. This is why what you are doing is a lot riskier than what we are doing, and even though I hope you win, in the end, I doubt you will. When you hit your parlays, you aren't winning that much more than had you bet all the games. The difference is that when you lose your parlay, your B bets are for even more money than they need to be, this isn't even counting the extra units you are throwing in there for no reason. So anyone following along right now probably would be up 13 units or so, which is OK, but it definitely wouldn't be 38, and the 13 will probably soon disappear, especially since they have no idea what teams they are betting on for any given day, because you don't even know.

And I actually doubt you made that 19 unit bet anyway, risking 29 units. Because your whole reasoning for the parlays was because you were "afraid" of the big bets. Then you are going to turn around and say you did, and if you actually did, then as I said before, you're nuts!

**stevex** · 02-14-12, 10:36 PM

Hold on fellas....

Is that ANOTHER A bet with in the Kings...

Absolutely love making that A bet money

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Hold on fellas.... Is that ANOTHER A bet with in the Kings... Absolutely love making that A bet money

**1gamer** · 02-14-12, 10:45 PM

And I actually doubt you made that 19 unit bet anyway, risking 29 units. Because your whole reasoning for the parlays was because you were "afraid" of the big bets. Then you are going to turn around and say you did, and if you actually did, then as I said before, you're nuts![/quote]

If questioning my creditability is the only way for you to justify my system in the black and yours in the red, then so be it buddy.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-15-12, 12:42 AM

MLB first inning ran two labby lines based on time periods. One for the biggest dog of the day and the favorite closest to the -100. So biggest dog as well as smallest favorite i believe. The yes and no both hit between 45-55% so for the no to bet -190 at times when it only hits 50% is kinda rediculous. This was tested by the way.

I think he used 3 hour gaps in his time period.... What you have to do is seperate the MLB in 3 sections for the day and labby the game closest to -100 to make your money. Simple system which came out to be a gold mine.

**jcygts6** · 02-15-12, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

MLB first inning ran two labby lines based on time periods. One for the biggest dog of the day and the favorite closest to the -100. So biggest dog as well as smallest favorite i believe. The yes and no both hit between 45-55% so for the no to bet -190 at times when it only hits 50% is kinda rediculous. This was tested by the way.

I think he used 3 hour gaps in his time period.... What you have to do is seperate the MLB in 3 sections for the day and labby the game closest to -100 to make your money. Simple system which came out to be a gold mine.

Hi JM Disciple,

Do you have the link to the thread for the 1st inning MLB system we are talking about?

I want to take a look at it myself and see how it work!

**thelimit0310** · 02-15-12, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by Sandwich

Limit, I really want to discuss an MLB system with you at some point. I unfortunately don't have enough posts to send out a PM yet; but I want to pick your brain and collaborate.

Also, I followed the 1st Inning Run system on Covers and made a good amount of money. The way he designed it basically was to take the biggest Dog (+) money bet for different game time periods. i.e. 7pm, 9pm, ect. I'm hoping the results will reflect the same this year as last.

BOL!

When the MLB comes around I'm sure we can discuss a few ideas! Thanks for the info on the 1st inning system as well. I still don't quite get when to pick Yes or No for runs though?

**thelimit0310** · 02-15-12, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

MLB first inning ran two labby lines based on time periods. One for the biggest dog of the day and the favorite closest to the -100. So biggest dog as well as smallest favorite i believe. The yes and no both hit between 45-55% so for the no to bet -190 at times when it only hits 50% is kinda rediculous. This was tested by the way.

I think he used 3 hour gaps in his time period.... What you have to do is seperate the MLB in 3 sections for the day and labby the game closest to -100 to make your money. Simple system which came out to be a gold mine.

Thanks for the info JMD. But still I'm not sure when you take the Yes or No runs? Is it take the option with the best line? Are you sure it's biggest dog and smallest favorite? I recall seeing a spreadsheet the creator put together playing a labby with both favs and dogs, but I think the fav one ended up negative?

I don't mean to clutter the NBA forum with MLB questions, so if you or Sandwich or anyone else with info on the system could discuss with me via PMs i'd appreciate it. I usually try to stay on topic but this really struck a cord with me as I've always wanted to run this system but just could not figure out the ground rules no matter how many pages I read. Maybe things will come out more set in stone this year.

**Wilba** · 02-15-12, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Thank you limit (+2pts my max) for the day to you. Also Thank you Wallco for the PMs in the past. I went back and read and see that you can make 100-200 units a season with the systems. I would have to go back and look at season averages to get more information on other systems. Limit answered most of them though.

Limit you said chase110 averages 27units a season when last season was +80 units? I will go back to last years forum and see if I can find the back test on this. Thank you for the responses.

Overall, In order to make a comfortable living 50K+ annually you would need between 50k - 100k bankroll and a unit size of $500. This does not include taxes. I do not think anyone is close to making that move yet to turn "pro."

Thanks again for the information greatly appreciated and greatful :-)

--JMD

JMD - the most important word in what you say above is "CAN". Just because these systems CAN make this in a year, even if they average out to 1-200 units a year, does not mean that they WILL.

It is possible for these systems combined to make -150 units on a year, with every single one having a losing season. Make sure you remember this, some of the things you say make it seem like you think that an average performance is a guarantee that that performance will continue. There is NEVER a guarantee of system output on any given year. A system that has made +200 units every year for 10 years can crash and burn for -100 units on any given year.

edit - in summary chances are that each year the systems will provide profit for you, but every system has years that it fails. And the fail years can pop up at any time with no way of predicting them.

**Wilba** · 02-15-12, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by alexknyc

There's gambling on a system with a proven track record and then there's gambling on a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at team names. Which do you think is which?

lol! Great quote alexknyc - could not have said it better myself!

**Wilba** · 02-15-12, 05:04 AM

omg 1gamer and Stevex, seriously, if you want to have a dick measuring contest that bad then go to a gay bar or something.
Can't believe you guys keep cluttering the thread with all this ridiculous bullshit.

guys just ignore 1gamer, he is really thick and does not listen to reason, nothing we say will change that. If he can not work out that what he is doing is retarded when literally EVERY person in the entire thread is telling him, then nothing anyone says to him will ever make a difference. He will work it out (or not) when he crashes and burns with ridiculous gambling practices.

Stevex I thought you had been around long enough to know that a 5 game win streak means less than nothing. 40% cappers hit 5 game win streaks, 60% cappers hit 5 game Lose streaks all the time. Man you must have bombed out in math at high school something savage. How did your labby line look after the 2-19 A bet streak last year? And your A bets went real well in the MLB season last year, you blew your entire tracked balance then stopped posting coz you were playing at such stupidly high levels of risk (from A). And you gloat about 5 A wins !?!? 5 units, please.. Come back in 1 year's time with the overall A bet record over the next 12 months and let us know what how you went. If they made you more profit than skipping them and putting the extra units into B and C then I will happily bow down and kiss your ring

**Wallco99** · 02-15-12, 06:36 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 34-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -3.29 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-4.51 units)

(2/14/12):
#38 Indiana (+2½) (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 25-13
(B) 4-8
(C) 3-4
(D) 2-2

V2 Plays
In production

Games for (2/15/12):
#36 Memphis @ New Jersey (+3) (C) (7:35 pm EST)
#38 Indiana (**) @ Cleveland (B) (7:35 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

**cmdyrds** · 02-15-12, 07:47 AM

wallco,

t-wolves have lost four straight, of which the last three have been ads and straight up. can you confirm if you are playing this one too? thanks.

**thelimit0310** · 02-15-12, 09:47 AM

JM Feb 14

V1 ATLANTA +8.5 @ LA Lakers (A) WIN
V1 SACRAMENTO +15 @ Chicago (A) WIN

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 11-5
B: 2-3
C: 3-0

Version 2
A: 4-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 20-13
B: 10-3
C: 2-1
DET 1/28-1/31

Totals
A: 35-20
B: 14-6
C: 5-1

JM Feb 15

V3 CHARLOTTE +15.5 @ Minnesota (A)
V2 NEW ORLEANS +12.5 @ Milwaukee (A)
V3 DENVER +10 @ Dallas (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

**thelimit0310** · 02-15-12, 09:54 AM

Wallco just don't worry about Stevex or 1gamer. If they wan't to play the A bets and handicap parlays then let them and let the feud end. I know your frustration, they don't realize we're only trying to help, not start arguments. In the end you can't teach someone who refuses to learn.

**Douchebag50** · 02-15-12, 10:07 AM

Limit...are today's JM plays A bets (CHA, NO, DEN)? ARE ALL versions of JM to ne played with 7/5 system from B bet?

**kdavis** · 02-15-12, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Wallco just don't worry about Stevex or 1gamer. If they wan't to play the A bets and handicap parlays then let them and let the feud end. I know your frustration, they don't realize we're only trying to help, not start arguments. In the end you can't teach someone who refuses to learn.

Exactly right. I've had both of them on my ignore list for the last week and the thread is much better.

**Maxi_EV** · 02-15-12, 10:51 AM

All A plays?

**Primetime2125** · 02-15-12, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

All A plays?

Yes. All "A" plays today.

**MoneyOnBball** · 02-15-12, 11:42 AM

So I'm now playing the 7/5 system and I've ran into a an unexpected situation (well I guess I could have foreseen this but I didn't): I'm getting bored sitting here waiting for a series to drop to the b and c bets lol. I made two personal bets yesterday because of this lol. I guess i didn't realize how much I love watching games with money on them.

**adidas-b 88** · 02-15-12, 12:05 PM

Lets hope for some JM A bets to lose by big today!!

**ok15533** · 02-15-12, 12:17 PM

hey folks. How are winnings going. I hope you all have been able to turn profit. I feel like I am loosing out not playing with you guyz cos I have got burned inthe past. but at least I am keeping what I have... Hope you all have a good luck and a great winning season.

**thelimit0310** · 02-15-12, 01:05 PM

All JM plays today are A bets sorry for the confusion.

Douchebag50 (nice name :P) yes regardless of version all 7/5 plays are on B and C bets only. The A bet must lose by 3.5 points added to the spread.

ok15533 Check page 55

**on3** · 02-15-12, 01:43 PM

Question for Wallco, limit, and everyone else that has put in the effort of a backtest: what is the practical significance of a team that covers a spread +3 and a team that covers the spread +4? the +3 results in a NO PLAY on (B) and (C) but a cover of spread +4 triggers a (B) and (C) bet.

take Sacto and ATL last night:

Sacto covered the spread +3, but also covered the original spread, which would lead me to believe that Sacto is in a stronger position than previously held and therefore lines would be tapered down and put the bettor in a weakened position (sharper line, less advantage). linesmakers say...Sacto had a 12 point powerrank (PR) lower than Chicago, but it really should be a 9 or 10 point PR difference, so then their next game Sacto's PR is upgraded and the line is shifted by 1 or 2 and therefore sharper.

ATL on the other hand covered the spread +3 by a half point, but didn't cover the original spread. they covered the +3 because jeff teague made a free throw with 12 seconds left. does that jeff teague freethrow really affect the linesmaker's PR and therefore puts the bettor at a disadvantage in games (B) and (C) in the same way Sacto covering does? i would think it does NOT, and still leaves the bettor in a position to profit from a (B) and (C) bet. basically...what is the PRACTICAL significance of only covering a spread by +3 and covering a spread +4, without covering the original line? is there any practical significance of 1 point on a linesmaker's PR?

hopefully this makes sense. let me know if you have noticed anything in the backtests. thank you.