John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

**COBRA31** · 02-12-12, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

The results of Mr. limit's testing were for all games to be played at -110, provided the A bet loses by 4 or more points to the spread. I only have a handfull of season's data, Mr. limit has the whole package. Baseline was also no point buying, at 7/5, buying points would cost a fortune on a loss. This is what took so long. We couldn't just take the already published JM results and apply 7/5 to it, since those results were all based on +3 points. Each series had to be broken down and checked to see if at least one of the games was won ATS, then it had to be determined which bets were most profitable to apply the 7/5 to. The B&C won out here also.

Got it....I can see the time and effort here. Thank you for the quick reply.

It would be nice if the whole package could be shared.

I assume the filter of best or worst road team was looked at as well? I know there was some discussion previously that if it only worked once in 20 times it is worth it or something to that point.

**Wallco99** · 02-12-12, 02:37 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 33-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -4.29 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-4.51 units)

(2/11/12):
#34 Denver (+3) (C) - Win
#36 New Jersey (+9½) (B) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 25-12
(B) 3-8
(C) 3-4
(D) 2-2

V2 Plays
In production

There are no system plays for (2/12/12):
#36 Resumes (C) on 2/15/12
#37 Resumes (B) on 2/13/12

**Wallco99** · 02-12-12, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by COBRA31

Got it....I can see the time and effort here. Thank you for the quick reply.

It would be nice if the whole package could be shared.

I assume the filter of best or worst road team was looked at as well? I know there was some discussion previously that if it only worked once in 20 times it is worth it or something to that point.

Too hard to backtest that, not knowing individual records at the time of every series. Numbers look good without the filters.
Mr Limit did the bulk of the work here, he would be the one to decide whether or not to post those numbers. We bounced several ideas off of each other and he did the majority of the testing. I crosschecked several seasons to double check the accuracy of the results he was coming up with, while spending most of my time trying to find a better bet strategy for Chase 110 and also working on a v2, which I am still doing. I give a high five to Mr. Limit for making my theory a reality, with his hard work and dedication.

**Wilba** · 02-12-12, 04:55 AM

Big round of applause for theLimit - thanks for sharing

**Wilba** · 02-12-12, 05:05 AM

Oh dear, I just read through the last couple pages of the thread. Big mistake! Some of the ignorance in this thread is truly astounding.

Anyway guys, let's stick to the topic at hand and not get side tracked by all this crap. The fact is that everyone is welcome to play it their own way, whether it is the best way or not. Let's just try to ignore posts that we think are stupid. Though I do admit it is very hard at times to do this!

**petters72** · 02-12-12, 05:53 AM

Thanks for the hard work. I look forward to implement the 7/5 strategi in my investing in sportsbetting.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-12-12, 06:46 AM

Sounds great fellas, looking forward to next season using 7/5. Can someone post an excel file on all the current plays for this season? Fantastic results! Basically a 90% increase in your bankroll every season on average if you use 1% as your unit size to start the season.

Thanks
JMD

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-12-12, 06:49 AM

With 4 losses in 1 month at 22 units aprox per loss the variance can seem high for the future. I want to make sure everyone understands that when following multiple systems. Make sure you have 100 units set aside for the 7/5 for this system a lone or use a smaller unit size, maybe .5% instead of 1%. I can assure you using 1% for all systems can be a disaster especially with 4 losses in 1 season. Imagine those 4 losses wipe out 80% of your bankroll while following 3 other systems... What would your bankroll look like then?

JMD

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-12-12, 06:52 AM

limit what is your avatar of?

**petters72** · 02-12-12, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

With 4 losses in 1 month at 22 units aprox per loss the variance can seem high for the future. I want to make sure everyone understands that when following multiple systems. Make sure you have 100 units set aside for the 7/5 for this system a lone or use a smaller unit size, maybe .5% instead of 1%. I can assure you using 1% for all systems can be a disaster especially with 4 losses in 1 season. Imagine those 4 losses wipe out 80% of your bankroll while following 3 other systems... What would your bankroll look like then?

JMD

Thanks for the advice. I blew my bankroll on such a occasion last year. Now I listen to the advices in this thread from the more experienced bettors and I am sticking to their recommendations, no matter what. I am a novice, but learning.

**Maxi_EV** · 02-12-12, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Note to Stevex and 1gamer:
WE DON'T CARE HOW YOU PLAY IT!
If you want to make less profit and play with scared money in parlays then do so, who cares. But your stupid comments and lack of mathematical skills sure isn't going to change my mind, or the minds of most people who are here to make money. Enjoy your 1 unit profit, and you need to bet 7 units on a B bet to make up for losses in a parlay that will only net you 1 unit profit when you win. The backtest is done, it was proven successful, and you guys are fools.

Let me clear up some math for Mr 1gamer who seems to have trouble with simple computations. For every B bet I win, you will have to win 6 extra A bets to be even. That means 6 out of 7 games must be won on A bet just to have the same profit. Since you are so fascinated by percentages, that would be 85.7% winning percentage. Please show me any JM NBA season that has performed that well on the A bet. Granted the losses are 1/3 of my way, but with 3 wins I'm back to even, your way takes 8, and you will also suffer losses that I will not because I will be filtering out several of the games you play. Even if all my wins went to C, you would still need to win 4 extra A's for each one of my C's, again for the percentage enthusiast, that is 80%. Hope this helps. If not, I don't care.

**thelimit0310** · 02-12-12, 10:43 AM

Thanks for the kind words and points everyone! JMD your right the variance can get high however there are enough games in those same months that are winners so it's not like your going to just lose 88% of your roll at one time. You may catch a loss, then two wins, then another loss, then 5 wins, then the third loss, etc. Even if you still end up with a net loss by the end of the month, you won't have 88% of your roll blown out. Still it always pays to be cautious and everyone here should prepare for it just in case!

By the way, on the question of my avatar: By The Power of Greyskull!

**thelimit0310** · 02-12-12, 10:55 AM

JM Feb 11

V3 PHILADELPHIA -4 @ Cleveland (A) WIN
V3 PHOENIX +5 @ Sacramento (A) WIN

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 9-5
B: 2-3
C: 3-0

Version 2
A: 3-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 19-13
B: 10-3
C: 2-1
DET 1/28-1/31

Totals
A: 31-20
B: 14-6
C: 5-1

JM Feb 12

V3 UTAH +9 @ Memphis (A)
V2 WASHINGTON +9 @ Detroit (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

**million2one** · 02-12-12, 11:36 AM

Much appreciation to you Mr. Limit, thank you for sharing your results.
Nobody is forcing anyone to play it one way over another, it is just good to have a place to bounce ideas off of each other.
Regardless it is always a good idea to stay flexible and keep learning and growing in this game.

You don't know math, I have more units then you, my unit is bigger than yours, blah, blah, blah.
Let's make money.

**hagball52** · 02-12-12, 11:38 AM

Hey limit, gave you a couple points but what you did is worth a lot of points. I told Wallco awhile back I think if you go pro you can receive more points. He wasn't sure but in the past I gave chillidog 50 points on a post for some work he did and it went through. Just a thought. Appreciate all your hard work. Maybe you should offer it to Morrison for a fee.

**thelimit0310** · 02-12-12, 12:01 PM

Thanks hagball! If only Morrison would listen to me, maybe I would! God knows there are a bunch of poor souls who play his emails and don't even know about the fountain of knowledge here at SBR. It's a shame.

**alexknyc** · 02-12-12, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Thanks hagball! If only Morrison would listen to me, maybe I would! God knows there are a bunch of poor souls who play his emails and don't even know about the fountain of knowledge here at SBR. It's a shame.

I bought Morrison's system in November and, by January was actively searching for a place like this.

**hagball52** · 02-12-12, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Thanks hagball! If only Morrison would listen to me, maybe I would! God knows there are a bunch of poor souls who play his emails and don't even know about the fountain of knowledge here at SBR. It's a shame.

Morrison has an ego the size of a Texas belt buckle. He would steal your results and call them his own and market it. Just want you to know how much your work is appreciated.

**Maxi_EV** · 02-12-12, 12:52 PM

thelimit0310

PM me your email. Excel sheet ready for you.

**1gamer** · 02-12-12, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by million2one

Much appreciation to you Mr. Limit, thank you for sharing your results. Nobody is forcing anyone to play it one way over another, it is just good to have a place to bounce ideas off of each other. Regardless it is always a good idea to stay flexible and keep learning and growing in this game. You don't know math, I have more units then you, my unit is bigger than yours, blah, blah, blah. Let's make money.

Amen to that brother!

Feb 12 (System +35.64) (Open series 0)

JM (A) bet 2 team modified parlay

Washington +6
Utah +6.5

1 to win 2.64

BOL today

**Maxi_EV** · 02-12-12, 01:30 PM

wallco

PM me your email please.

**thelimit0310** · 02-12-12, 02:31 PM

Thanks Maxi!

**Maxi_EV** · 02-12-12, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Thanks Maxi!

Pleasure.

**nitsuj378** · 02-12-12, 05:27 PM

thelimit0310,

Did you use covers for your backtest or some other site? The reason I ask is I want to make sure that I am adding 3.5 points to the spread based on their closing lines since thats what you would have backtested.

Thanks
nitsuj378

**thelimit0310** · 02-12-12, 06:39 PM

All based on Covers closing lines yup.

**Riceboi** · 02-12-12, 07:09 PM

So each unit should be 1% of your bankroll or the 7 units should equal the 1% of your BR?

thanks

**jcygts6** · 02-12-12, 07:22 PM

7 units = 7% of bankroll

**jcygts6** · 02-12-12, 07:23 PM

So a series loss with the 7-5 method will be around 13% units loss including the juice

**ChiLLx** · 02-12-12, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

So a series loss with the 7-5 method will be around 13% units loss including the juice

No, it's more than that since it's a chase. About -21%

**jcygts6** · 02-12-12, 07:39 PM

Yeah my bad.. That is correct a loss is about 1/5 of your roll

**Wallco99** · 02-12-12, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

So a series loss with the 7-5 method will be around 13% units loss including the juice

Originally posted by ChiLLx

No, it's more than that since it's a chase. About -21%

Actually, to be precise, it is 21.67 units per loss, that would equate to 21.67% of you BR if playing 1 unit = 1%

**stevex** · 02-12-12, 07:52 PM

Look at this. Washington up going into the 4th quarter....

Wait, ANOTHER A bet win....

LOVE IT

**Wallco99** · 02-12-12, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Look at this. Washington up going into the 4th quarter....

Wait, ANOTHER A bet win....

LOVE IT

I am done playing with the children, the rest of us MEN are off to make some money. Multiples of 1, how exciting!!

**stickbit** · 02-12-12, 08:15 PM

[QUOTE=stevex;13715073]Look at this. Washington up going into the 4th quarter....

Wait, ANOTHER A bet win....

LOVE IT[/QUOTE

Labby tiiiiiime and the livin's ez!

**1gamer** · 02-12-12, 08:35 PM

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