LTA's NBA Plays

[shift_knob]

in the money!

[Catchn_Picks]

LTA for President!

[Hw101]

Lta does it again

[BayArea888]

Good win! I do hope bulls win though hehe. Anyway, on to gsw!!!

[Kurtz]

[windtalker]

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/12/2012

Play #1

Bulls/Celtics over (173) 1x (Locked)

I generally love unders in the 170's, but I think the books and market are both overreacting to the news surrounding Rose. Whether Rose plays or not, I expect both teams score between 85 and 92 points today. I have this game at 177 and even though I think we see a slow pace, the Bulls are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA and I expect improved play from the Celtics on the offensive end after being limited in its last two games. I think we see a bit of a bounceback from this Celtics team which will be facing its old assistant coach today. I think guard play will be really important and I think we see Allen and Rondo breakout. As long as the Celts get the typical solid game from Pierce and Garnett, I think that 85 point range is reachable. On the other side, if Rose does not play, the Bulls generally play at a faster pace with Watson behind the wheel. Regardless, with or without Rose, 85+ points is possible in this game. The Celtics are 3-0 in favor of the over on day games, which may surprise some. Common sense would think that it would take longer for those old bones to warm up, but I think the fact that we see such low totals for the Celtics during day games provides a little extra value on the over. Both teams are excellent defensively, ranked top 5 in the league in most advanced statistical categories, and I expect a solid defensive game today. However, this is a pure value play. The oddsmakers and market moved a little too far to the under here and I'm going to buy now at 173, which gives us 4 points of variance between that number and my quantitative number of 177. The refs are Willard, Goble and Poole. Willard is a very solid over leaning ref, while Goble and Poole are relatively neutral (if not slightly under leaning). I like the value here and I'm going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockets/Warriors over (204) 1x (Locked)

The Warriors are starting to take on their old form as they heal up from injuries and Jackson loosens up on the noose around his players' necks. I think he realizes he needs to let these guys play at their naturally fast pace in order to win. The Warriors have worked themselves up from one of the slowest teams, to a team now ranked #7 in PACE. Without Houston at full health, I expect a fast game tonight. Houston is ranked #10 in PACE and there's no reason to slow down tonight, especially when you consider that both teams are also ranked top 10 in possessions per game and field goal attempts per game (with Houston #1 in that category). Neither team plays particularly well on defense, with Houston improving but still more likely to fall into shootout type basketball. Both teams are very weak defensively in the paint, while Houston loves to score down low. In addition, with Houston ranked 5th in ORB% and 7th in extra scoring chances per game, while the Warriors relatively lax on the boards, I think we see quite a few easy scoring opportunities for Houston down low. I think this is going to be a very competitive game and there's not much edge on the side with it possibly coming down to the last possession. Therefore, we could see some late fouling put this one over the top. The refs are not great for an over with Mauer, Collins and Roe, but they are all pretty much average with respect to fouls per game. I have this game set at 208.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz/Grizzlies over (188) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup. Been eyeing this one all day and Pinny started to move, so I am jumping on the 188 with my local that follows Legends. I expect a fast pace and some easy Grizz baskets down low with both teams scoring in the mid-90's. I have this game set at 191 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Nyjrkm06]

thanks lta

[alamo]

Solid as always LT

[JM92]

Thinking the same of you LTA regarding the easy baskets. Actually for both teams. Gasol cant deal with the all those bigs by himself and he'll give them trouble at the other end, also the Jazz guards might get blown by a lot. I see this going into a fast pace also because both teams can take advantage in those situations. Allen and Hayward for instance, two guys that love to "leak out"!

[Hw101]

Kk let win another 2. Tonight Ty lta

[Roto97]

I agree, already took the line. Both teams have a low 90s pace and on national tv, which should get them both motivated.

[Love The Action]

Strong lean to Miami, but no play at -4 on the road. Was hoping for -3....

[jimmy007oc]

Strong lean to Miami, but no play at -4 on the road. Was hoping for -3....

You could wait and grab -3 or better line in LIVE game

[JM92]

Strong lean to Miami, but no play at -4 on the road. Was hoping for -3....

Just like I said before, also waitin for that. Ended up parlaying it with the Lakers.


edit: the ML, not the - 4 of course.

[I am Happy]

Agree with the Miami lean... I took the bait and have -4. I think Atlanta comes flatfooted this evening.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I played Grizzlies OVER 97.5 at home.

[Roto97]

Lta,

The line for Philly (-11.5) vs Bobcats tomorrow, looks mighty enticing.

• Bobcats have been getting blown out by teams that don't play half the def Philly does
• Both teams coming off one day rest
• Gerald H. & DJ Aug both out for cats
• Bench players seem to be filling in at an avg level for Hawes
• Bobcats are at the bottom for defensive pts allowed

Bulls and sixers are close on the defensive front, and Bulls killed them by almost 30. Seems like it might be a layup line for the sixers.


What are your thoughts LTA?

[JM92]

Omg... only - 11.5 still? That's scary in my mind. I've been playing the last 7 or 8 spreads against the Bobcats. Only lost the Boston one thanks to Najera's three. That just scares me though.

[Catchn_Picks]

Lta,

The line for Philly (-11.5) vs Bobcats tomorrow, looks mighty enticing.

• Bobcats have been getting blown out by teams that don't play half the def Philly does
• Both teams coming off one day rest
• Gerald H. & DJ Aug both out for cats
• Bench players seem to be filling in at an avg level for Hawes
• Bobcats are at the bottom for defensive pts allowed

Bulls and sixers are close on the defensive front, and Bulls killed them by almost 30. Seems like it might be a layup line for the sixers.


What are your thoughts LTA?

Ran my numbers Roto just to see what you were talking about.

Yea, huge discrepancies on both ends of the court. About as one-sided as it can get. But the books are not giving it to you free. Damn spotting 11.5 on the road is a big line in the NBA. Usually reserved for the elite one or two teams.

No doubt the data is there to pull the trigger tho. The answer is pure Philly motivation I would suppose.

You make a compelling case, imo.

Catch

[Love The Action]

Lta,

The line for Philly (-11.5) vs Bobcats tomorrow, looks mighty enticing.

• Bobcats have been getting blown out by teams that don't play half the def Philly does
• Both teams coming off one day rest
• Gerald H. & DJ Aug both out for cats
• Bench players seem to be filling in at an avg level for Hawes
• Bobcats are at the bottom for defensive pts allowed

Bulls and sixers are close on the defensive front, and Bulls killed them by almost 30. Seems like it might be a layup line for the sixers.


What are your thoughts LTA?

I would play Philly or pass. Without Augustin and Henderson, the Bobcats are unplayable right now. With that said, however, I generally don't play road faves over the -7 range. When you face an undermanned home team, you tend to get less than full effort for the favorite unless they have some special motivation going into this game. In this case, I'm not sure Philly has much motivation coming off a lop-sided win and having just beaten this Cats team by 17 at home. I would not be surprised to see Philly coast a little bit late in this game, which could lead to a back door from Charlotte. This is probably a pass for me unless I can find some motivation as to why Philly is going to give max effort in this game. GL.

[apurvaas]

got ATL +25.5 in Live hope they cover :P.. I had ATL ML for 1U.

[mikea33]

Wow horrific start in gstate gsme....guess its gnna be one of those

[06Ech0]

dude, we have over 3 quarters to go. relax!

[Love The Action]

Wow horrific start in gstate gsme....guess its gnna be one of those

Brutal...both teams shooting 30%. Can't last forever and it's only half way through the first. It will pick up. Classic low scoring first, high scoring game.

[Les_Nuts]

Brutal...both teams shooting 30%. Can't last forever and it's only half way through the first. It will pick up. Classic low scoring first, high scoring game.

Monta getting his eye in, everyone hitting 3s, we got this

[alamo]

LT, I tend to look at pace even as a more important factor that % shooting when we analyse the early stages of a game. By pace I mean, How many shot attempts are teams trying and break it down by minute.
Does anyone know the average for a 1st qtr ?
I tend to think its around 38 for a qtr. I was a little concerned early on with the pace here but both teams seem to be shooting a lot earlier in the clock as the qtr draws on. Perhaps something that can be discussed at a later date as now is not the time in the heat of battle as we aspire to get this over

As an aside. Ends up we had 41 shot attempts in the 1st which is pretty good. Obviously the % has to be high as well but first things first....Get those shots up there !

[mikea33]

This is going over

[alamo]

Another critical factor TURNOVERS...
<table class="mod-data" border="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="odd"><td style="text-align:center;" valign="top" width="50">7:16</td><td style="text-align:left;" valign="top">Patrick Patterson bad pass</td><td style="text-align:center;" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">36-31</td><td valign="top">
</td></tr> <tr class="even"><td style="text-align:center;" valign="top" width="50">7:03</td><td valign="top">
</td><td style="text-align:center;" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">36-31</td><td style="text-align:left;" valign="top">Nate Robinson bad pass (Patrick Patterson steals)</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td style="text-align:center;" valign="top" width="50">6:52</td><td style="text-align:left;" valign="top">Goran Dragic lost ball (Nate Robinson steals)</td><td style="text-align:center;" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">36-31</td><td valign="top">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
17 turn overs combined already. Come on you FUPS look after the ball !!!

[Love The Action]

This is going over

Mikey...just wait till the game is over either way. There's no need to get too negative after a slow start or too confident after they heat up. Just try to play it even keel and watch the game analytically. Good luck buddy

[Roto97]

I would not be surprised to see Philly coast a little bit late in this game, which could lead to a back door from Charlotte. This is probably a pass for me unless I can find some motivation as to why Philly is going to give max effort in this game. GL.

Good point on the late coasting. I did have that in the back of my mind, as witnessed by the mia vs atl game today. I had over on that game, but it didn't look promising till the backups came in.

All of a sudden meaningless baskets (thank you i wear an o linemen jersey number radmanovic shooting 3s) helped me cover.

[alamo]

23 turnovers already in Warriors game (Thats more than the entire Heat game combined). These point guards are handling the rock like a block of soap.

[Love The Action]

23 turnovers already in Warriors game (Thats more than the entire Heat game combined). These point guards are handling the rock like a block of soap.

Yep. Both late games are at a great pace, but both Houston and Memphis are shooting horribly. Need to pick it up.

[Love The Action]

Good luck tonight gentlemen. I'm done for the night. Let's hope we can wake up to some winners.

[Catchn_Picks]

What is the deal with those horrific home uniforms on Memphis?

Is this some sort of retro thing?

Maybe that's why they are not scoring points...their uniforms suck so bad they don't want to look at themselves.