LTA's NBA Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Card complete sir?

[Donnie Brasco]

Im on kings

[Hw101]

Donni u have your own page?

[Donnie Brasco]

No sir. Dont really put in the time. Novice to hoops. Play mostly nfl, ncaaf and mlb. Lta nice enough to let me post from time to time.

[Hw101]

Looking forward I ur MLB

[Donnie Brasco]

Played nuggs, tailed sixers, playing kings

[Donnie Brasco]

LTa and dex kill mlb!

[Catchn_Picks]

Very nice hit LTA!

Thank you.

[Hw101]

Ty lta u win again

[Sixla]

thx for your capping and pick with the Sixers LTA! Any leans for the Sac game?

[Speedy88]

Nice hit Heisenburg, I was on the Sixers -7 all the way with you.

[pokerwhiz90]

come on jeremy LIN!

[Donnie Brasco]

Lins for real, exactly what knicks needed

[MrXYZ]

Thanks for the Philly play LTA. I've been in the NBA grind for the last few weeks, trying to make enough money for a vacation to South America & hit my target today, thanks to this pick. Your efforts are much appreciated, hopefully another streak of winners is around the corner!

[Kurtz]

Thank you LTA!

[NaccAttack]

Thanks for the picks LTA!!! Man, I was really hoping either Portland or Dallas played tomorrow after 2OT tonight!

[alamo]

Can a rules guru help me !

NBA QUES:- Does a technical foul on a player count towards a team foul in a quarter ?

[Speedy88]

Can a rules guru help me !

NBA QUES:- Does a technical foul on a player count towards a team foul in a quarter ?

Don't quote me on this, but I don't think it does.

[migz]

Nice call on the Sixers. Was afraid to take them on the road.

[That Guy]

any early leans LTA?
Lakers -5 seems like a gift against Toronto.. also O175 seems low even for Lakers

[JM92]

So far i'm eyeing the Heat and the Over on that game, specially being it a ESPN game/big game. The Hawks will look for some revenge... but so will Lebron and D-Wade. I rather go with Bron a Wade, of course!

Also like O 205 in Golden State.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/11/2012 Recap

1 - 0 = +1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

67 - 57 = +9.35x

Good luck on Sunday

[Speedy88]

Great season so far. I know it is early, but any leans for today? Those unders in CHI/BOS and LAL/TOR look good IMO.

[Love The Action]

Great season so far. I know it is early, but any leans for today? Those unders in CHI/BOS and LAL/TOR look good IMO.

Working on my card now. If Rose does not play, you may want reconsider that under. The bulls play a faster pace with watson as he likes to really push the ball. Plus, this line is already a little low. Not sure yet though, more work to do. I will check back in later. Good luck buddy

[Elad]

Good work chief

Good luck with today card

[pacocn]

Lta, nice hit on philly

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/12/2012

Play #1

Bulls/Celtics over (173) 1x (Locked)

I generally love unders in the 170's, but I think the books and market are both overreacting to the news surrounding Rose. Whether Rose plays or not, I expect both teams score between 85 and 92 points today. I have this game at 177 and even though I think we see a slow pace, the Bulls are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA and I expect improved play from the Celtics on the offensive end after being limited in its last two games. I think we see a bit of a bounceback from this Celtics team which will be facing its old assistant coach today. I think guard play will be really important and I think we see Allen and Rondo breakout. As long as the Celts get the typical solid game from Pierce and Garnett, I think that 85 point range is reachable. On the other side, if Rose does not play, the Bulls generally play at a faster pace with Watson behind the wheel. Regardless, with or without Rose, 85+ points is possible in this game. The Celtics are 3-0 in favor of the over on day games, which may surprise some. Common sense would think that it would take longer for those old bones to warm up, but I think the fact that we see such low totals for the Celtics during day games provides a little extra value on the over. Both teams are excellent defensively, ranked top 5 in the league in most advanced statistical categories, and I expect a solid defensive game today. However, this is a pure value play. The oddsmakers and market moved a little too far to the under here and I'm going to buy now at 173, which gives us 4 points of variance between that number and my quantitative number of 177. The refs are Willard, Goble and Poole. Willard is a very solid over leaning ref, while Goble and Poole are relatively neutral (if not slightly under leaning). I like the value here and I'm going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockets/Warriors over (204) 1x (Locked)

The Warriors are starting to take on their old form as they heal up from injuries and Jackson loosens up on the noose around his players' necks. I think he realizes he needs to let these guys play at their naturally fast pace in order to win. The Warriors have worked themselves up from one of the slowest teams, to a team now ranked #7 in PACE. Without Houston at full health, I expect a fast game tonight. Houston is ranked #10 in PACE and there's no reason to slow down tonight, especially when you consider that both teams are also ranked top 10 in possessions per game and field goal attempts per game (with Houston #1 in that category). Neither team plays particularly well on defense, with Houston improving but still more likely to fall into shootout type basketball. Both teams are very weak defensively in the paint, while Houston loves to score down low. In addition, with Houston ranked 5th in ORB% and 7th in extra scoring chances per game, while the Warriors relatively lax on the boards, I think we see quite a few easy scoring opportunities for Houston down low. I think this is going to be a very competitive game and there's not much edge on the side with it possibly coming down to the last possession. Therefore, we could see some late fouling put this one over the top. The refs are not great for an over with Mauer, Collins and Roe, but they are all pretty much average with respect to fouls per game. I have this game set at 208.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Damn...messed up on that Warriors game locking it in at 204 since it's down to 203 now. Still, I can't help but think this one moves back up at some point. I'm not convinced this under movement is real, and would not be surprised to see a buy back up on the over.

[Catchn_Picks]

Thanks for the early posting LTA.

Already seemed to pop up to over 203.5 everywhere...your prediction is seeming to happen already.

BOL

[Donnie Brasco]

Big hit on boston, no news on rose though. Ur warriors total is bouncing back as well. I think that one sails over anyway.

[apurvaas]

got Warriors O 202.5 (bought hook) and Chicago 173.. I am back after 15 days... also took ATL ML at 150, according to my calc, i see ATL win by 2..

[Les_Nuts]

love the over in GSW game

[Rolo1984]

just a question LTA. Is it possible to post the odds you are getting the bets? Since it makes big differnce nowadays

[Donnie Brasco]

just a question LTA. Is it possible to post the odds you are getting the bets? Since it makes big differnce nowadays

LTA will rarely make a play @ worse than -110 in which case he will specify. He will hardly ever do this on totals, cardinal sin in his opinion!

[Love The Action]

just a question LTA. Is it possible to post the odds you are getting the bets? Since it makes big differnce nowadays

It's stated on the very first post of this thread. Odds are -110 unless noted otherwise. Therefore, if it doesn't see the odds, you can assume -110.