Pretty sure this finally proves that there is no such thing as a fatigue spot for the Thunder...they played tough all 48 minutes tonight unfortunately.
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Tomorrow is another day LTA. We will get em then.Comment -
Been saying this all along, but nobody agreed, lol.
I bet the Jazz at the half, essentially getting them +4.5 for the game, which felt like decent value for Jazz at home. And now I feel about as dumb as ever. The Jazz never even made a run in the 2nd half. Thunder just out-energy'd them the entire 2nd half, forcing turnovers and getting easy transition points.Comment -
And how the hell can u win with a player named Penis Kanter?Comment -
Leaning into Philly big time tonight. And also the Clippers. I think they finally proved they can win on a road (I don't know how people ever doubted a certain guy named Chris Paul, but ok). Philly is coming of the terrible loss last night, now lost 2 straight at home and are probably eagering for a big win. How 'bout a Cavs team without Varejao and Irving for a start? Seems about perfect to me. And the Bobcats just stink.Comment -
I thought the same thing with LAC until I saw the books hang -10 around the Clipper's neck. Wow..LAC might have to win on the road over a bad Charlotte team but the Clip show doesn't have to blow them out in order to win.
Philly just went from -6.5 to 7 and now be more than 3 scores ahead to cover.
On the Clip game I stuck a lean to Charlotte even tho their numbers stink but LAC is coming off of a very big win at Philly last night in dramatic fashion. Can they really get up for Charlotte? The Bobcats just stunk it up with Chicago at home. I'm sure they got a dog-cussin by their coach.
I also stuck a situational spot lean on Minn even tho they haven't been playing well lately. NYK coming off of a big win over LAL, jump on a plane to take on a decent Minnesota team at home. Lin-show now on the road...quite different.
GL everybody...BOL LTA.Comment -
Gotta think at some point Lin's legs hit the wall a little, he also is not going to keep draining jumpers with the frequency he has in the first few games. The grind of real NBA action is not the same as practice, not to mention, Fisher was really physical with Lin last night. Minny also in a fatigue spot 4th game in 5 nights (and a 105 pace last night).......Lin has been quite a story but the Knicks are getting it done Defensively with the line-up they currently throw out there. I see the O/U already up to 196, I am liking the under at first glance.
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\I wouldn't know, because I did not eat any crow. I did not bet the game.
The question asked to me if I was going to make any changes to my set line of +4 for Lin in the game. My answer was no, I was not going to make any adjustments to my set line because the adjustment had already been made by the books in their calculations.
You only make adjustments when a player is not calculated into the opening line. For example, say an established player like Derrick Rose was hurt and not expected to play. Therefore, his presence is not calculated into the line because he was announced out. Now, if Rose makes a decision to play later in the day, then your line needs to adjusted because it was not calculated in before. In this case, whatever value the books assign to Lin was already calculated into the line. Therefore, no adjustment by me was warranted.
The second part to this is whether to make an adjustment on a guy that has seemingly come out of nowhere to have 3 or 4 great games. Do you make a 1 point or more adjustment for a guy with a 4 game sample size. Historically, no you would not make such an adjustment.
All of this is not saying the Lin is or is not a great player. For all we know, he could be a perennial all-star or a guy that we never hear from again. No one knows. That is why no adjustment is made.
With all that said, Lin is certainly an exciting player that is putting the Knicks back on the map so that is pretty cool. I am interested to see how he plays when he starts playing with the big boys like Melo. Will they try to freeze him out or will they play together as a team? Should be interesting, but I will say that it seems that the Knicks have found a point guard for the immediate future and if he plays well for the rest of the season, then maybe they won't need to go out and find another point guard.
Bottom line, however, is that you don't make adjustments to the numbers the books provide for players that are only playing in their 4th game when their presence was already calculated into the line. I can tell you are a big Lin fan, so I wish you and him nothing but luck.
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thank you sirComment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/10/2012 Recap
1 - 2 = -1.6x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
66 - 57 = +8.35x
An extremely disappointing loss with the Heat/Wiz over. That one closed at 202, .5 off where my model predicted. I beat the closing line by 3.5 points, in what was a very good play at 198.5. Unfortunately, both teams missed some easy shots and shot abnormally bad from beyond the arc. The PACE was fast which is just what we predicted, but we just couldn't get over the hump and lost that one by 3 points. As far as Utah, in hindsight I probably should not have added the extra 0.50x before the game because of the OKC lost a night before. Had OKC won that game, I think we might have seen a different result last night. Need to close out the weekend strong after a scuffling all week. Live and learn and onto Saturday.Comment -
how you feeling about that ORL/MIL U187.5, both teams played tough OT games last night, plus Orlando is traveling up to Milwaukee for the game...AND Jennings was looking a lot more like himself last night...Comment -
Indy under 199? I like itComment -
Anyone like Under 196 in Knicks/TWolves game?Comment -
Playing nuggets + 3Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/11/2012
Play #1
Sixers (-7) 1x (Locked)
I am going to take a shot with Philly against the ailing Cavs. I actually really like the Cavs a lot this year as they always play with maximum effort. However, in this game, the Cavs will face a motivated Philly team coming off two losses. The problem is that the Cavs are presumably without Irving, Varaejao and Parker who are all listed as doubtful and are not expected to play. Plus, they are in a bad fatigue spot playing on a b2b (plus OT last night) and their 4th game in 5 nights. While Philly is also in a fatigue spot (b2b and 3 in 4), they are relatively healthy and deep while the Cavs are very thin right now. If you look at the minutes played, you will see that Sessions, Gibson and Jamison all played over 43 minutes last night, while all Sixer players were under 30 minutes except for Brand at 32, Iggy at 39 and Holliday at 37. Sessions, Gibson and Jamison will be instrumental in fighting off these angry Sixers who just lost against the Clip joint and the Spurs, but I do not think they will have enough gas in the tank to fight off the depth of the Sixers. Quantitatively, Philly has a huge advantage on defense where they dominate the Cavs in almost every facet of the game, especially in the pick and roll defense and perimeter defense. While the Cavs have the advantage statistically in the paint and on the boards, the loss of Varaejao will really hurt that Cavs frontcourt. This is a big number for Philly to cover on the road, but they are 2-1 ATS as favorites in this spot and 10-2 ATS on the road against sub .500 teams. Right now, Philly is desperate for a win and I expect them to take all of their recent frustrations out on this Cavs team. Philly's depth will prove too much in this game and I expect them to wear the Cavs down quarter by quarter and win this game by 10 or more. My model has this at -8, which does not account for the Cavs injuries and lack of depth for tonight's game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Sixers for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Im on sixers too road woes worry meComment -
I'm glad that you're on them as well.Comment -
Good luck today. I like the Sixers as well.Comment -
gl lta! tailingComment -
have to agree on the cavs pick...varejao went down last night and it lost the game for em, bucks destroyed them insideComment -
I'm on the Philly tailing you. Let's get a winComment -
Lta, I like philly in this spot too. Bol
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Varajao's X-rays were negative and he'll likely play this evening.Comment -
Only 1 play today I c?Comment -
A few good bullet points here. http://cavs.ohio.com/#/2012/02/prega...ers-at-cavs-3/
I'm gonna wait til just before game time, I hope varejao sitsComment -
That is incorrect. The exact opposite and he is out indefinitely.
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Varejao has broken wrist: Cleveland PF Anderson Varejao got some bad news on Saturday as it was found out he has a broken wrist. Injured when Bucks F Drew Gooden attemtped to slap the ball and missed, Varejao will now be considered out indefinitely. Varejao underwent an MRI which revealed the non-displaced fracture, reports FOX Sports Ohio.
(Updated 02/11/2012)
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