LTA's NBA Plays

[BigBurk]

Shows the importance of getting the best number and beating the closer

[Cruizer]

LTA, how are you going to factor in Lin into your capping, for NYK vs LAL? early lines at LAL -3.5 thoughts?

[BigBurk]

Even though the kid has been playing some great ball the last three games, I don't really think he will be a factor tonight against guys like Kobe and Bynum.

I'm staying away from this one myself, this can go either way.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/10/2012

Play #1

Heat/Wizards over (198.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under pretty heavy here at 199.5 all the way at -123 and my local is posting 198.5. I'm going to gamble a little bit here and lock this is now because I expect some over money to hit tomorrow morning. I have this game set at 202.5 and I expect a closer at 200 or more. We have two teams that rank top 10 in PACE and have a nice history of playing fast paced, high scoring games. Miami is a juggernaut, but is playing a 3 in 4, although they are coming off a day of rest. Nevertheless, after losing to Orlando with a mediocre offensive performance, I expect Miami to come out running and looking to really run up the score. However, Washington will be motivated for this game and generally plays the upper echelon teams competitively, only to concede in the end. If you look at some of the scores against other top level and/or big name teams, you will see a correlation with the over: (i) against Orlando 212 points; (ii) against NY 200 and 195; (iii) Houston, Denver, OKC all between 207 and 220 points; (iv) against Boston 194 and 192; etc. It seems that Washington gets a little extra motivated to ramp up their scoring against the better teams, but there defense is so porous that they can't stop anyone and these games end up on the higher scoring side. In this game, I expect Wall to come motivated against the Heat and Wittman wants to play more up-tempo, so I think Wall ends up pushing the pace more and more. I would not be surprised to see the Heat score 110 or more in this one as my model has the Heat at 108.7 and the Wiz at 94.1. However, those numbers are based on the stats alone and when you look at some of the common motivational factors, I think both teams could eclipse those numbers. The Heat might just be fatigued enough to slack a little bit on defense so they can really rack up the points on offense. As I mentioned above, I have this game set at 202.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Hawks/Magic under (183) 1x (Locked)

I also have a lean to the Hawks in this game, but I'm jumping on the under now as I love this one at 183. You have two teams that know each other very well and will be playing with playoff-like intensity similar to the Lakers/Celts game yesterday. Another similarity is the slow tempo with both teams ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in PACE. If you look at the possession numbers, you see that both teams also rank bottom 10 in possessions per game with an offensive effective possession rating which are bottom 1/3 of the league. Both teams are not good on the offensive boards, ranked in the bottom 11 of ORB%, but excel on the defensive rebounding side with a DRB% top 10 in the league. Finally, when you look at the offensive strengths of each team in comparison to the defensive strengths, I see both offensives getting neutralized. Orland depends on the 3 pointer to win, but Atlanta has a respectable perimeter defense from beyond the arc where they only give up about 6 three pointers a game which is 6th in the league, an opponent three point rate also rated 6th and they only allow 34% shooting on the trey. On the other hand, Atlanta has a balanced attack but will have to contend with the #2 team for opponent points in the paint in Orlando who has similarly rated perimeter defense to that of the Hawks. I have this game set at 179 giving us 4 full points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, how are you going to factor in Lin into your capping, for NYK vs LAL? early lines at LAL -3.5 thoughts?

Not at all. Excuse me if I don't go gaga over a guy with a 2 game sample size. If this guy was playing in any other market, it would not have been this big a deal that he had a couple of good games. When Rose was out, CJ Watson had some huge games score in the mid-20's and dishing 10 dimes. However, I wouldn't make a bid deal out of him and I'm not going to make any adjustments for Lin.

Let's see what this guy can do over the next 20 or 30 games before we can even begin to assess his true value.

[Love The Action]

I could make a strong case for the Cavs over the Bucks tomorrow, but I think we might see the market overreact to the loss of Irving in this game and give us a better number down the road. The Bucks are regressing with the all the in-fighting and I think the Cavs will be focused with an angry Sessions who has seemingly been ignored all year.

[BayArea888]

LTA, can I have your opinion on the lakers tomorrow night? I really like the -3 and I feel the line will only go up. However this play feels really "square" and that's holding me back...

[Speedy88]

LTA, can I have your opinion on the lakers tomorrow night? I really like the -3 and I feel the line will only go up. However this play feels really "square" and that's holding me back...

Don't you just hate that feeling? Sometimes it is okay to go square if you really like the pick that much.

[BayArea888]

Don't you just hate that feeling? Sometimes it is okay to go square if you really like the pick that much.

I know the lakers are lacking in their 3's and bench production but I just can't imagine who contains mr. Kobe Bryant.

[PR9]

I know the lakers are lacking in their 3's and bench production but I just can't imagine who contains mr. Kobe Bryant.

Iman Shumpert the rookie is a good defender at Shooting guard. And he has enough length at 6'5 to spot him

I know he's a rookie yada yada yada, but they've been very impressed with him and he is after all a defensive minded player. Look at his draft reviews and scouting reports and read up on his defensive strengths and awareness on that end of the floor.

He has great athleticism and can really move. At this stage of Kobe's career, Shumpert is far more athletic and just needs to stay in front of him.

[hawley]

Fields will start on Kobe not Shumpert

[PR9]

They will switch back and forth to give Kobe different looks as they have different elements. Shumpert has seen alot of playing time lately and he's playing well. 32 mins or more in 5 of his last 6 games including 2 games where he saw 40 minutes or more. His steals totals are off the charts recently and is playing very solid man defense. He has very fast hands defensively to go with his quick feet. He will definitely see time on kobe

[Hw101]

Ohhh yahhhh lmao. We win fail math

[Hw101]

Tailing on both bets tonight. We got this

[dynasty27]

I could make a strong case for the Cavs over the Bucks tomorrow, but I think we might see the market overreact to the loss of Irving in this game and give us a better number down the road. The Bucks are regressing with the all the in-fighting and I think the Cavs will be focused with an angry Sessions who has seemingly been ignored all year.

I may be a homer to Cleveland but, I have to agree. The Cavs have proved game in and game out that they are going to fight the WHOLE game. They have a few injuries including, Kyrie, Parker(more defense minded than scoring), and Rookie Thompson who has impressed with his energy off the bench. Boobie Gibson is back playing and he helps scoring some buckets in dry spells. Also, as you said about Sessions, when he plays and plays aggressively, can really manage a game. However, the one thing I would look at is to make sure Varejao is OK to go. He took some hard falls against the Clip and left the game for a bit because of back issues. If Varejao goes, IMO, Cleveland is a go!

[Owls]

I think Bucks take this one against Cavs. Cavs not really that strong at home, Bucks are the better team even with Irving on the Cavs. Without Irving, Cavs are back to their 19-63 level of last year.

[Love The Action]

I think Bucks take this one against Cavs. Cavs not really that strong at home, Bucks are the better team even with Irving on the Cavs. Without Irving, Cavs are back to their 19-63 level of last year.

Is that "perception" or reality? The books know that people are going to jump to this conclusion. However, there are a lot of problems in milwaukee between skiles and jackson and skiles and jennings. Neither guy is playing well and thay team relies heavily on jennings. If you look at the numbers, these teams are evenly matched with most key advanced categories in clevelands advantage. I have to disagree with your statement. I only hope there are more bucks backers out there so I can get a better number on the cavs around +2. GL

[marty kaan]

Not at all. Excuse me if I don't go gaga over a guy with a 2 game sample size. If this guy was playing in any other market, it would not have been this big a deal that he had a couple of good games. When Rose was out, CJ Watson had some huge games score in the mid-20's and dishing 10 dimes. However, I wouldn't make a bid deal out of him and I'm not going to make any adjustments for Lin.

Let's see what this guy can do over the next 20 or 30 games before we can even begin to assess his true value.

3 game sample size and his vision and ability to run the pick and roll wont change. he night not drop 20 but he will get by derek fisher all night

[Les_Nuts]

LTA - what do you think of the total in Bulls@Bobcats game at 184? I'm a Bulls fan and have a strong feeling it will be under that and the game will play out similar to the Hornets game, since Deng has come back our D has improved greatly and we have been keeping inferior teams like the Bobcats to low scores, even on the road.

[JM92]

How 'bout a small ball game for the Over with Clev and Mill? Although I rather have it with Irving.

[Love The Action]

Is someone out for Atlanta? Line moving to +5. That's good value, even without Horford.

[Catchn_Picks]

Is that "perception" or reality? The books know that people are going to jump to this conclusion. However, there are a lot of problems in milwaukee between skiles and jackson and skiles and jennings. Neither guy is playing well and thay team relies heavily on jennings. If you look at the numbers, these teams are evenly matched with most key advanced categories in clevelands advantage. I have to disagree with your statement. I only hope there are more bucks backers out there so I can get a better number on the cavs around +2. GL

You may get your wish today LTA...according to SBR lines nearly 64% of all early bets on Mil.

[Love The Action]

Damn...we got unfavorable ref assignments in the heat/wiz game. Callahan is a big undet guy snd Brown/Forte are not much better. Oh well, wasn't really depending on a ton of foul shots to help us as this play is more about fast pace and effort frim washington.

[Tatsu]

I live in Atlanta and we were at the game Wednesday night against Indiana, no injuries during the game so everyone should be healthy.

[TC Woods]

I'm thinking there will a lot of shots taken in the OKC/Utah game. Hopefully a lot will go in....

I took the O201 1/2

[JM92]

3 points is a lot... but how don't you take the Lakers, with the confidence from last nights win (should overcome the fatigue in my mind) against a team that's led by Jeremy Lin? Regardless of moment, a worse talent-wise Lakers team without Bynum already beat a better talent-wise Knicks team by 17 this year. Lin is not going to eat fisher's ass as some guys have been saying here, because Artest and Kobe are too proud to let that happen, and thats more than enough for me. And no one, right now, can stop Bynum on its own. Do the Knicks have what it takes to put a collective effort into forcing him into turnovers and such? dont think so. Oh, and Ball hog 24 always plays well at new york.

[ugabooga]

You forget lakers are a completely different team away so that previous result shouldn't count. Both teams are quite different to when they last met tbh..

[JM92]

You forget lakers are a completely different team away so that previous result shouldn't count. Both teams are quite different to when they last met tbh..

Yes... they are quite different, as in the Knicks miss their two best players (cmon... lets no even put this into question) and the Lakers got a 17-13 guy on their roster now.

And people really overreact with the Lakers road performances... not like Staples Center's crowd is something that nice. Since they have Bynum, they lost to Portland, Utah, Clippers, Denver, Magic, Bucks, Miami and Sixers. They also beat both Utah and Sixers. They were always dogs on those losses. Except for the Magic and the Bucks, those were all good teams, especially at home. And then they beat the Celtics last night on TNT. No reason to believe they wont beat the poor Knicks on ESPN tonight.

[Catchn_Picks]

Can someone explain to me why (arguably) two upper echelon offense (Philly and LAC) opened at 189.5 and the sharps have dropped it to 186.5 begging for over money?

Billups is a good offensive player but not that good.

[JM92]

The Sixers play great D at home... But right now i'm also eagering for the Over. Blake will destroy the Sixers I believe, and so might CP3 in the HC. So the Sixers might have to run a little, therefore getting this easily into over pace.

[TC Woods]

Wow... I finally saw "198 1/2" on the Heat game. While I was fumbling around trying to make a wager, it went to 201.... WTF???

[Roto97]

Wow... I finally saw "198 1/2" on the Heat game. While I was fumbling around trying to make a wager, it went to 201.... WTF???

Ditto..I had it in my bet slip at 199, and at 201 before i could hit enter. Guess LTA might be right in his analysis, hence the line movement.

[Hw101]

Ditto..I had it in my bet slip at 199, and at 201 before i could hit enter. Guess LTA might be right in his analysis, hence the line movement.

That's why I tail him. He knows his stuff

[jack meoff]

Horford out til late April. I still like ATL though. Thoughts?

[Dave88]

Any bettors checking this forum with TAB Sportsbet account? (Australia)
Well if you like Atlanta you can get the ATL+4.5 Total <189.5 double right now at +250 ($3.50)
Looks like they made a mistake because the game total alone is set at 182.5.

So with LTA setting the total at 179 that's too good value for me to pass up. Lets get it. GL all.